globalization with labor: is the future robots or rosalie lant pritchett march 6, 2008 brown...
TRANSCRIPT
Globalization with Labor: Is the Future Robots or Rosalie
Lant PritchettMarch 6, 2008Brown University
Five Points
Gaps in income/wages across nation-states are much larger than ever in history
The current globalization is qualitatively different a “proliferation of sovereigns” and “everything but labor”
EBL globalization will not reduce (all) inequalities
It is labor versus capital for the future What was, was, what can be, could be
Steady growth of the economic leaders have left the follower countries far behind…India has not yet reached the 20th century, Ethiopia the 13th…
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
1700 2000
GD
P P
PP
pe
r C
ap
ita
UK USA
India, $2990
1851
China, $5332
1898
Ethiopia, $688 ~ Year 12501929
Mexico, $8165
Historically it mattered who you were, now where you were born
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Years
Fra
ctio
n o
f T
ota
l In
equ
alit
y D
ue
to
Acr
oss
Co
un
trie
s
Theil coefficient
Mean ln deviation
But liberalization has yet to touch labor—wage for equivalent labor are enormously larger than those that set in motion the first globalization’s migration
2.33.6
4.1 4.4
2.4
6.17.2 7.6
9.0 9.1
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.0
Rat
io o
f w
ages
in
PP
P
Wage gaps of 2:1 to 4:1 drove massive migrations prior to 1920
Wage gaps today between potential migration partners are 6:1 to 9:1—but with much smaller (relative) flows
Current “globalization” is qualitatively different: (Proliferation of sovereigns (POS), Everything but labor (EBL)--POSEBL)
Now that was globalization: the Roman Empire and Mobility…Emperors from Spain, Levant, North Africa, Europe
Pax Americana: the proliferation of sovereigns with modest amounts of cross-border everything but labor liberality
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
ssa mena
eca lac
eap other
But even deep liberalization with borders does not make the world “borderless”…
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
British Columbia's exports to:
Bil
lio
ns
Ontario
Texas
Predicted with Texaswithout a border
Source: McCallum, 1995
The world is not flat—there are big hills separating even the liberalized countries—prices are not equalized
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Me
an
pe
rce
nta
ge
ab
so
lute
va
lue
d
iffe
ren
ce
in p
rod
uc
er
pri
ce
s a
cro
ss
g
oo
ds Canada-USA
Germany-USAUK-USAJapan-USA
Source: Bradford and Lawrence, 2004
Percentage of Foreign-Born Population in the Labor Force
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge France
Germany
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
Until very recently it was EBLG (Everything but labor globalization)
Will POSEBL globalization eliminate global inequalities: The guiding myth of the post WWII globalization and “development”
All problems can be solved in place without any movement of people across borders
Why ever would you think so? History and experience within most large countries suggest massive population movements
Does globalization of goods and capital eliminate the need for labor mobility?
Simple supply and demand: If there are large region specific shocks to labor demand then…
Population
Wages
Elastic labor supply (mobility allowed)
Inelastic labor supply (mobility restricted)
Large fall in region specific labor demand
Supply elastic: populations fall
Supply inelastic: wages fall
Huge differences across countriesIn output per capita growth
Small differences in net migration
If supply is inelastic (e.g. across countries)—little labor mobility, big differences in growth
If labor supply is elastic—(e.g. across regions in large integrated countries)…large differences in population growth,
small differences in growth
Labor mobility is much larger than growth differences within these countries, vice versa across countries
A d a ir
A d a m s
A lla m a k e e
A p p a n o o s e
A u d o b o n
B e n to n
B la c kHa wk
B o o n e
B re m e r
B u c h a n a n
B u e n aV is ta B u tle r
Ca lh o u n
Ca rro ll
Ca s s
Ce d a r
Ce rroG o rd o
Ch e ro k e e
Ch ic k a s a w
Cla rk e
Cla y
Cla y to n
Clin to n
Cra wfo rd
Da lla s
Da visDe c a tu r
De la w a re
De sM o in e s
Dic k in s o n
Du b u q u e
E m m e t
Fa y e tte
Flo y d
Fra n k lin
Fre m o n t
G re e n e
G ru n d y
G u th rie
Ha m ilto n
Ha n c o c k
Ha rd in
Ha rris o n
He n ry
Ho wa rd
Hu m b o ld t
Id a
Io wa
Ja c k s o n
Ja s p e r
Je ffe rs o n
Jo h n s o n
Jo n e s
K e o k u k
K o s s u th
L e e
L in n
L o u is a
L u c a s
L y o n
M a d is o n M a h a s k aM a rio n
M a rs h a ll
M ills
M itc h e ll
M o n o n a
M o n ro eM o n tg o m e ry
M u s c a tin e
O Õ B rie n
O s c e o la
P a g e
P a loA lto
P ly m o u th P o c a h o n ta s
P o lk
P o tta wa tta m ie
P o we s h ie k
Rin g g o ld
S a c
S c o ttS h e lb y
S io u x
S to ryTa m a
Ta y lo r
Un io n
V a n B u re n
W a p e llo
W a rre n W a s h in g to n
W a y n e
W e b s te r
W in n e b a g o
W in n e s h ie k
W o o d b u ry
W o rth
W rig h t
A d a ir
A n d re w
A t c h is o n
A u d ra in
B a rry
B a rt o n
B a te s B e n to n
B o llin g e r
B o o n e
B u c h a n a n
B u t le r
Ca ld w e ll
Ca lla wa y
Ca m d e n
Ca p eG ira rd e a u
Ca rro ll
Ca rt e r
Ca s s
Ce d a r
Ch a rit o n
Ch ris t ia n
Cla rk
Cla y
Clin to n
Co le
Co o p e r
Cra w fo rd
Da d e
Da lla s
Da vie s s DeK a lb
De n t
Do u g la s
Du n k lin
F ra n k lin
G a s c o n a d e
G e n t ry
G re e n e
G ru n d y
Ha rr is o n
He n ry
Hic k o ry
Ho lt
Ho wa rd
Ho we ll
Iro n
Ja c k s o n
Ja s p e r
Je ffe rs o n
Jo h n s o n
K n o x
L a c le d e
L a fa y e t t e
L a w re n c e
L e w is
L in c o ln
L in n
L ivin g s t o n
M c Do n a ld
M a c o n
M a d is o n
M a rie s
M a rio n
M e rc e r
M ille r
M is s is s ip p i
M o n ite a u
M o n ro e
M o n t g o m e ry
M o rg a n
Ne w M a d r id
Ne wt o n
No d a wa y
O re g o n
O s a g e
O z a rk
P e m is c o t
P e rry
P e t t is
P h e lp s
P ik eP la t te
P o lk
P u la s k i
P u tn a m
Ra lls
Ra n d o lp hRa y
Re y n o ld s
Rip le y
S t . Ch a r le s
S t . C la ir
S t e .G e n e vie ve
S t .F ra n c o is
S t . L o u is
S a lin e
S c h u y le r S c o t la n d
S c o t t
S h a n n o n
S h e lb y
S t o d d a rdS t o n e
S u lliva n
Ta n e y
Te x a s
V e rn o n
W a rre n
W a s h in g to n
W a y n e
W e b s te r
W o rt h
W rig h t
S t . L o u isCit y
A dam s
A ntelope
A rthurB anner
B laine
B oone
B ox B utte
B oyd
B rown
B uffalo
B urt
B ut ler
C ass
C edar
C hase
C herry
C heyenne
C lay
C olfax
C um ing
C uster
D akota
D awes
D aws on
D euel
D ixon
D odge
D ouglas
D undy
F illm ore
Frank lin
Front ier
Furnas
G age
G arden
G arfield
G osper
G rant
G reeley
H allH am ilton
H arlan
H ayes
H itchcock
H olt
H ooker
H oward
Jefferson
Johns on
K earney
K eith
K eya P aha
K im ball
K nox
Lancaster
Lincoln
Logan
Loup
M cP herson
M adison
M errick
M orrill
N ance
N em aha
N uckolls
O toe
P awnee
P erk ins
P helps
P ierce
P lat te
P olk
R ed W illow
R ichardson
R ock
S aline
S arpyS aunders
S cot ts B luff
S eward
S heridan
S herm an
S ioux
S tanton
Thayer
Thom asThurs ton
V alley
W ashington
W ayne
W ebster
W heeler
Y ork
A llen
A nderson
A tc hison
B arber
B arton
B ourbon
B row n
B ut ler
C hase
C hautauquaC herokee
C heyenne
C lark
C lay
C loud
C offey
C om ancheC ow ley
C raw ford
D ecatur
D ick inson
D oniphan
D ouglas
E dw ards
E lk
E llis
E llsw orth
F inney
Ford
Frank lin
GearyGove
Graham
Grant
Gray
Greeley
Greenw ood
H am ilton
H arper
H arvey
H askell
H odgem an
Jacks on
Jefferson
Jew ell
Johns on
K earny
K ingm anK iow a
Labette
Lane
Leavenw orth
Lincoln
Linn
Logan
Lyon
M arion
M arshall
M cP herson
M eade
M iam i
M itchell
M ontgom ery
M orris
M orton
N em aha
N eosho
N ess
N orton
Osage
Osborne
Ottaw a
P aw nee
P hillips
P ot taw atom ie
P ratt
R aw lins
R eno
R epublic
R ice
R ileyR ooks
R ush
R ussell
S aline
S cot t
S edgw ic k
S ew ard
S haw nee
S heridanS herm an
S m ith
S tafford
S tanton
S tevens
S um ner
Thom as
Trego W abaunseeW allace
W ashington
W ichita
W ilson
W oodson
W y andot te
A u ro ra
B e a d le
B e n n e tt
B o nHo m m e
B ro o k in g s
B ro wn
B ru le
B u ffa lo
B u tte
Ca m p b e ll
Ch a rle s M ix
Cla rk
Cla y
Co d in g to n
Co rs o n
Cu s te r
Da vis o n
Da y
De u e l
De we y
Do u g la s
E d m u n d s
Fa ll R ive r
Fa u lkG ra n t
G re g o ry
Ha a k o n
Ha m linHa n d
Ha n s o n
Ha rd in g
Hu g h e s
Hu tc h in s o n
Hy d e
Je ra u ldJo n e s
K in g s b u ry
L a k e
L a w re n c e
L in c o ln
L y m a n
M c Co o k
M c P h e rs o nM a rs h a ll
M e a d e
M e lle tte
M in e r
M in n e h a h a
M o o d y
P e n n in g to n
P e rk in s
P o tte r
Ro b e rts
S a n b o rn
S h a n n o n
S p in k
S ta n le y
S u lly
To d d
Trip p
Tu rn e r
Un io n
W a lwo rth
Y a n k to n
Ja c k s o n
Zie b a c h
A d a m s
B a rn e s
B e n s o n
B ill in g s
B o ttin e a u
B o wm a n
B u rk e
B u rle ig h
Ca s s
Ca va lie r
Dic k e y
Divid e
Du n n
E d d y
E m m o n s
Fo s te r
G o ld e nV a lle y
G ra n dFo rk s
G ra n t
G rig g s
He ttin g e r
K id d e r
L a M o u reL o g a n
M c He n ry
M c In to s h
M c K e n z ieM c L e a n
M e rc e r
M o rto n
M o u n tra il
Ne ls o n
O live r
P e m b in a
P ie rc e Ra m s e y
Ra n s o m
Re n ville
Ric h la n d
Ro le tte
S a rg e n t
S h e rid a n
S io u x
S lo p e
S ta rk
S te e le
S tu ts m a n
To w n e r
Tra il l
W a ls hW a rd
W e lls
W ill ia m s
W o o d wa rd
A d a ir
A lfa lfa
A t o k a
B e a ve r
B e c k h a m
B la in e
B ry a n
Ca d d o
Ca n a d ia n
Ca rt e r
Ch e ro k e e
Ch o c t a w
Cim a rro n
Cle ve la n d
Co a lCo m a n c h e
Co t t o n
Cra ig
Cre e k
Cu s te r
De la w a re
De we y
E llis
G a rfie ld
G a rvin
G ra d y
G ra n t
G re e r
Ha rm o n
Ha rp e r
Ha s k e ll
Hu g h e s
Ja c k s o n
Je ffe rs o n
Jo h n s to n
K a y
K in g fis h e r
K io waL a t im e r
L e F lo re
L in c o ln
L o g a n
L o ve
M c Cla in
M c Cu rt a in
M a c In t o s h
M a jo r
M a rs h a ll
M a y e s
M u rra y
M u s k o g e e
No b le
No wa t a
O k fu s k e eO k la h o m a
O k m u lg e e
O s a g e
O t t a w a
P a wn e e
P a y n e
P it t s b u rg
P o n to to c
P o t t a w a t o m ie
P u s h m a t a h a
Ro g e r M ills
Ro g e rs
S e m in o le
S e q u o y a h
S t e p h e n s
Te x a s
Tillm a n
Tu ls a
W a g o n e r
W a s h in g to n
W a s h it a
W o o d s
A rk ansas
A shley
B ax terB entonB oone
B radley
C alhoun
C arroll
C hicot
C lark
C lay
C leburne
C leveland
C olum bia
C onw ay
C raighead
C raw ford
C rit tendenC ross
D allasD esha
D rew
Faulkner
F rank lin
Fulton
G arland
G rant
G reene
H em pstead
H ot S pring
H ow ard
Independence
Iz ard
Jacks on
Jefferson
Johns on
Lafayet te
Law rence
Lee
Lincoln
Litt le R iver
Logan
Lonoke
M adison
M arion
M iller
M is s iss ippi
M onroeM ontgom ery
N evada
N ew ton
O uachita
P erry
P hillips
P ike
P oins et t
P olk
P ope
P rairieP ulas k i
R andolph
S t. F ranc is
S aline
S cot t
S earcy
S ebas t ian
S evier
S harp
S tone
U nion
V an B uren
W ashington
W hiteW oodruff
Y ell
A d a m s
A lc o r n
A m it e
A t t a la
B e n t o n
B o liv a r
C a lh o u n
C a r r o ll
C h ic k a s a w
C h o c t a w
C la ib o r n eC la r k e
C la y
C o a h o m a
C o p ia h
C o v in g t o n
D e S o t o
F o r r e s tF r a n k lin
G e o r g e
G r e e n e
G r e n a d a
H a n c o c k
H a r r is o n
H in d s
H o lm e sH u m p h r e y s
Is s a q u e n a
It a w a m b a
Ja c k s o n
Ja s p e r
Je f f e r s o nD a v is
Jo n e s
K e m p e r
L a f a y e t t e
L a m a r
L a u d e r d a le
L a w r e n c e
L e a k e
L e e
L e f lo r e
L in c o ln
L o w n d e s
M a d is o n
M a r io n
M a r s h a ll
M o n r o e
M o n tg o m e r y
N e s h o b a
N e w to n
N o xu b e e
O k t ib b e h a
P a n o la
P e a r l R iv e r
P e r r yP ik e
P o n t o to c
P r e n t is s
Q u itm a n
R a n k in
S c o t t
S h a r k e y
S im p s o n
S m it h
S to n e
S u n f lo w e r
T a lla h a t c h ie
T a t eT ip p a h
T is h o m in g o
T u n ic a
U n io n
W a lt h a ll
W a r r e n
W a s h in g to n
W a y n e
W e b s t e r
W ilk in s o n
W in s t o n
Y a lo b u s h a
Y a zo o
Je f f e r s o n
Autauga
Baldwin
Barbour
Bibb
Blount
Bulloc k
Butle r
Calhoun
Cham bers
Cherok ee
Chilton
Choc taw
Clark e
Clay
Cleburne
Coffee
Colbert
Conec uh
Coos a
Covington
Crens haw
Cullm an
Dale
Dallas
De Kalb
Elm ore
Es c am bia
Etowah
F ay ette
F rank lin
Geneva
Greene
Hale
Henry
Hous ton
Jac k s on
Jeffers onLam ar
Lauderda le
Lawrenc e
Lee
Lim es tone
Lowndes
M ac on
M adis on
M arengo
M arion
M ars ha ll
M obile
M onroe
M ontgom ery
M organ
Perry
Pic k ens
Pik e
Randolph
Rus s ell
S t. Cla ir
Shelby
Sum ter
Ta lladega
Ta llapoos a
Tus c aloos a
W alk er
W as h ington
W ilc ox
W ins ton
S t. M a rtin
S t. M a rtin
A c a d ia
A lle n
A s c e n s io n
A s s u m p tio n
A vo y e lle s
B e a u re g a rd
B ie n vil le
B o s s ie r
Ca d d o
Ca lc a s ie u
Ca ld w e ll
Ca m e ro n
Ca ta h o u la
Cla ib o rn e
Co n c o rd ia
De S o to
E a s tB a to n
Ro u g e
E a s tCa rro ll
E a s tFe lic ia n a
E va n g e lin e
Fra n k lin
G ra n t
Ib e ria
Ib e rvil le
Ja c k s o n
Je ffe rs o n
Je ffe rs o nDa vis
L a fa y e tte
L a fo u rc h e
L a S a lle
L in c o ln
L ivin g s to n
M a d is o n
M o re h o u s e
Na tc h ito c h e s
O rle a n s
O u a c h ita
P la q u e m in e s
P o in teCo u p e e
Ra p id e s
Re dRive r
Ric h la n d
S a b in e
S t. B e rn a rdS t. Ch a rle s
S t.He le n a
S t. Ja m e s
S t. Jo h nth e B a p tis t
S t. L a n d ry
S t. M a ry
S t. Ta m m a n y
Ta n g ip a h o a
Te n s a s
Te rre b o n n e
Un io n
V e rm ilio n
V e rn o n
W a s h in g to n
W e b s te r
W e s tB a to nRo u g e
W e s tCa rro ll
W e s tFe lic ia n a
W in n
A n d e rso n
A n d re w s
A n g e l i n a
A ra n sa s
A rc h e r
A rm st ro n g
A ta sc o sa
A u st i n
B a i l e y
B a n d e ra
B a st ro p
B a y l o r
B e e
B e l l
B e x a r
B l a n c o
B o rd e n
B o sq u e
B o w i e
B ra z o r i a
B ra z o s
B re w st e r
B ri sc o e
B ro o ks
B ro w n
B u r l e so n
B u rn e t
C a l d w e l l
C a l h o u n
C a l l a h a n
C a m e ro n
C a m p
C a rso n
C a ss
C a st ro
C h a m b e rs
C h e ro ke e
C h i l d re ss
C l a y
C o c h ra n
C o ke
C o l e m a n
C o l l i n
C o l l i n g sw o rth
C o l o ra d o
C o m a l
C o m a n c h e
C o n c h o
C o o ke
C o ry e l l
Cottle
C ra n e
C ro c ke t t
C ro sb y
C u l b e rso n
D a l l a m
D a l l a sD a w so n
D e a f S m i t h
D e l ta
D e n t o n
D e W i t t
D i c ke n s
D i m m i t
D o n l e y
D u v a l
E a st l a n d
E c t o r
E d w a rd s
E l l i s
E l P a so
E ra th
F a l l s
F a n n i n
F a y e t t e
F i sh e r
F l o y d
Foard
F o rt B e n d
F ra n kl i n
F re e st o n e
F r i o
G a i n e s
G a l v e sto nG a l v e sto n
G a rz a
G i l l e sp i e
G l a ssc o c k
G o l i a d
G o n z a l e s
G ra y
G ra y so n
G re g g
G ri m e s
G u a d a l u p e
H a l e
H a l l
H a m i l to n
H a n sf o rd
H a rd e m a n
H a rd i n
H a rri s
H a rri so n
H a rt l e y
H a ske l l
H a y s
H e m p h i l l
H e n d e rso n
H i d a l g o
H i l l
H o c kl e y
H o o d
H o p ki n s
H o u st o n
H o w a rd
H u d sp e t h
H u n t
H u t c h i n so n
I ri o n
J a c k
J a c kso n
J a sp e r
J e f f D a v i s
J e f f e rso n
J i m H o g g
J i mW e l l s
J o h n so n
J o n e s
K a rn e s
K a u f m a n
K e n d a l l
K e n e d y
K e n t
K e rr
K i m b l e
K i n g
K i n n e y
K l e b e rg
K n o xL a m a r
L a m b
L a m p a sa s
L a S a l l e
L a v a c a
L e e
L e o n
L i b e rty
L i m e sto n e
L i p sc o m b
L i v e O a k
L l a n o
L o v i n g
L u b b o c k
L y n n
M c C u l l o c h
M c L e n n a n
M c M u l l e n
M a d i so n
M a ri o n
M a rt i n
M a so n
M a ta g o rd a
M a v e r i c k
M e d i n a
M e n a rd
M i d l a n d
M i l a m
M i l l s
M i t c h e l l
M o n t a g u e
M o n t g o m e ry
M o o re
M o rr i s
Motley
N a c o g d o c h e s
N a v a rro
N e w to n
N o l a n
N u e c e s
O c h i l t re e
O l d h a m
O ra n g e
P a l o P i n to
P a n o l a
P a rke r
P a rm e r
P e c o s P o l k
P o t te r
P re si d i o
R a i n s
R a n d a l l
R e a g a n
R e a l
R e d R i v e r
R e e v e s
R e f u g i o
R o b e rts
R o b e rtso n
R o c kw a l l
R u n n e l s
R u sk
S a b i n e
S a nA u g u st i n e
S a nJ a c i n t o
S a n P a t r i c i o
S a n S a b a
S c h l e i c h e r
S c u rryS h a c kl e fo rd
S h e l b y
S h e rm a n
S m i t h
S o m e rv e l l
S ta rr
S te p h e n s
S te rl i n g
S to n e w a l l
S u t to n
S w i sh e r
T a rra n t
T a y l o r
T e rre l l
T e rry T h ro c km o rto n T i t u s
T o mG re e n
T ra v i s
T ri n i t y
T y l e r
U p sh u r
U p t o n
U v a l d e
V a l V e rd e
V a nZ a n d t
V i c to ri a
W a l ke r
W a l l e r
W a rd
W a sh i n g t o n
W e b b
W h a rto n
W h e e l e r
W i c h i t a
W i l b a rg e r
W i l l a c y
W i l l i a m so n
W i l so n
W i n kl e r
W i se
W o o d
Y o a ku m Y o u n g
Z a p a ta
Z a v a l a
R ed = C o u n ty D ec lin ed ; N et D ec lin e b e tw een 0 an d 5 ,0 0 0P u r p le= C o u n ty D ec lin ed ; N et D ec lin e b e tw een 5 ,0 0 0 an d 1 0 ,0 0 0Blu e= C o u n ty D ec lin ed ; N et D ec lin e g r ea te r th an 1 0 ,0 0 0G r een = C o u n ty I n c r eas ed b y m o r e th an 1 0 ,0 0 0
The emptying of the heartland and the Delta (only green shaded counties had substantial population increase over a 60 year period)
Ghosts and Zombies
Post WW II world has run a huge natural experiment—(a) expand dramatically number of sovereign states (borders, flags, currencies), (b) encourage mobility of capital and labor but freeze labor in place (POSEBL globalization)
How will this turn out? Hinges on views of the role of region specific labor demand: Small shocks—all good Big shocks, flows accommodate—all good in long run Big shocks, policy and ‘institutional’—not so good, can
be fixed Big shocks, really geographic: lets not think about it
—What would be ghost countries are zombies
Value of annual savings from debt relief versus existing remittances
3 7.3
135
Bil
lio
ns
Flows from HIPC debtrelief
Remittances to Sub-Sahran Africa
Net developingcountry remittances
`
Gains to developing country residents from “globalization” options on and off the table
79.5 86
305
Bill
ion
s
Doubling net ODA
Net gains to developingcountries fromliberalization in Doharound
Value of welfare gains tocurrent developing countryresidents (including gainsto movers)from 3% ofOECD labor force increase
`
Which is facetious?
3 79.5 86 305
8000
Bill
ion
s
Flows from HIPC debtrelief
Doubling net ODA
Net gains to developingcountries fromliberalization in Doharound
Value of welfare gains tocurrent developing countryresidents (including gainsto movers)from 3% ofOECD labor force increase
Gains from open borders(assuming proprotionallydistributed)
`
“You see that that Mr. Anderson?... That is the graph of demographic inevitability... It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson... “ (The Matrix, adapted)
Europe’s disappearing act—compared to the “Muslim tier” that surrounds it
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
United States
Support ratios (workers to retirees)--rule of thumb: what cannot happen will not—but what will happen?
“Hard core non-tradables” (non-outsourceable services) are the major labor growth of the future who will do these jobs? With a declining labor force what is the face of the future labor force?
The historically huge decrease in the cost of capital and the rise in returns to education—unskilled labor is threatened by skill biased technical change—lack of labor mobility exacerbate this problem?
Occupation Employment in 2000
(in ‘000s)
Projected employment
in 2010(in 000’s)
Absolute Increase
(in 000s)
Combined food preparation and serving workers 2206 2879 673
Retail Salespersons 4109 4619 510
Cashier, except gaming 3325 3799 474
Security guards 1106 1497 391
Waiters and Waitresses 1983 2347 364
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor trailer 1749 2095 346
Nursing aides, orderlies and attendants 1373 1697 324
Janitors and cleaners 2348 2665 317
Home Health Aides 615 907 292
Laborers and freight, stock and material movers 2084 2373 289
Landscaping and grounds keeping 894 1154 260
Personal and home care 414 672 258
Receptionists and information clerks 1078 1334 256
Truck drivers, light orderly services 1117 1331 214
Packers and packagers, hand 1091 1300 209
Total, hard core non-tradable servicesLow to medium skill 27492 32679 5177
Future labor creation—top 25 occupations, hard core non-tradables, mostly low skilled (e.g. truck drivers, waiters)
0100020003000400050006000
Hard corenon-
tradable,low skill
Hard Corenon-
tradable,high Skill
Services,low skill
Services,high skill
'00
0 in
cre
as
e in
job
s
What is the future?
Moore’s law (increased computing power)
Robotics Increase in very high skilled
researchers in rich countries plus hugely distorted labor costs—
Robots displace Rosalie(ATMs, automated checkout, self-service
parking garages)
Globalization cannot include migration because voters are against it….
In favor of reducing migration "a little" or "a lot"
0
1020
3040
50
6070
80
Italy Austria Spain
There is similar, or higher, opposition to trade, but this is a problem to be handled with globalization and free trade, but an insuperable objection…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Italy Austria Spain
In favor of reducingmigration "a little" or "alot"
In favoring of restrictingtrade "a little" or "a lot"
While voters closed borders in the early 20th century, the huge historical spread in incomes raises the question: are the median voter in rich countries and an unskilled migrant really substitutes?
Source: Author’s calculations with many assumptions