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Global Wheat Overview
Foreign Agricultural Service United States Department of Agriculture
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Production Consumption
Global Wheat Production/Consumption Nearly in Balance
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06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
MMT
Global Wheat Stocks Remain Ample
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90
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Others
Exporters
China & India
Global Stocks: A Closer Look M
MT
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Ending Stocks of 5 Traditional Exporters U.S. HRW FOB Prices
? $/ ton FOB
Historically, a Strong Inverse Relationship Between Wheat Exporter Stocks and Prices-
MMT
Corn and Wheat:
Unusual Inverse Price Situation Drives Wheat Feeding
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Black Sea Feed Wheat
SRW Gulf
Corn Gulf
$/t
on
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150
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
Strong World Wheat Import Demand
Despite High Prices
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Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4
Series 1
Series 2
Series 3
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Black Sea Exports Rebound
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T
Black Sea*
Others
U.S.
10%
10/11
24%
11/12
US Loses Market Share as Black Sea Countries Resume Exports
*Black Sea Countries include Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
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2011/12 U.S. Wheat Production Forecast Down
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05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
U.S. Exports Remain Strong M
MT
–Tight U.S. corn supplies, feed-
quality wheat as a substitute?
–Firm U.S. wheat/corn prices
Global Factors Shaping 2011