global warming: the five ws carlo stagnaro director, free market environmentalism istituto bruno...
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Global Warming: The Five WsGlobal Warming: The Five Ws
Carlo StagnaroCarlo StagnaroDirector, Free Market EnvironmentalismDirector, Free Market Environmentalism
Istituto Bruno LeoniIstituto Bruno Leoniwww.brunoleoni.itwww.brunoleoni.it
[email protected]@brunoleoni.it
New Zealander CowNew Zealander Cow
European CowEuropean Cow
Mad CowMad Cow
Questions:Questions:
WhatWhat is global warming? is global warming? HowHow are we are we going to address it?going to address it?
WhereWhere are climate policies to be enforced? are climate policies to be enforced? When When will this happen?will this happen? Who Who is going to do this?is going to do this? WhyWhy are they doing so? are they doing so?
What…?What…?
We are told our planet’s climate is We are told our planet’s climate is warming;warming;
We are told that responsibility is upon We are told that responsibility is upon humanity’s shoulder (especially developed humanity’s shoulder (especially developed world);world);
We are told we should cut greenhouse We are told we should cut greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions;gases (GHGs) emissions;
That would have a huge economic cost.That would have a huge economic cost.
What…?What…? Temperature has Temperature has
always changed!always changed!
We had glaciations, We had glaciations, and that was a cold and that was a cold era;era;
We have no longer We have no longer glaciations: ours is a glaciations: ours is a warm era.warm era.
YearYear ClimateClimate
1980-1980- WarmWarm
1950-19801950-1980 ColdCold
1850-19501850-1950 WarmWarm
1550-18501550-1850 Very cold (Little Ice Very cold (Little Ice Age)Age)
1350-15501350-1550 Relatively coldRelatively cold
1200-13501200-1350 Relatively coldRelatively cold
750-1200750-1200 WarmWarm
400-750400-750 Relatively cold, wetRelatively cold, wet
100b.C-400A.D.100b.C-400A.D. Warm. DryWarm. Dry
300 b.C-100 b.C.300 b.C-100 b.C. MediumMedium
900 b.C-300 b.C.900 b.C-300 b.C. Relatively coldRelatively cold
1200 b.C-900 b.C.1200 b.C-900 b.C. Warm, dryWarm, dry
2600 b.C-1200 b.C.2600 b.C-1200 b.C. Relatively cold, wetRelatively cold, wet
4000 b.C-2600 b.C.4000 b.C-2600 b.C. WarmWarm
5500 b.C-4000 b.C.5500 b.C-4000 b.C. Warm, wetWarm, wet
What…?What…?
Should you be a sailor who discover this land,
HOW WOULD YOU CALL IT?
Perhaps Whiteland?
What…?What…?
Around 1000 A.D. Around 1000 A.D. Vikings discovered a Vikings discovered a green land, and called green land, and called it Greenland;it Greenland;
Today Green land is Today Green land is not so green…not so green…
What…?What…?
In 1757 In 1757 Giandomenico Giandomenico Tiepolo painted an Tiepolo painted an Italian “Summer Italian “Summer walk”;walk”;
People are not People are not dressed in a dressed in a Summerish way Summerish way according to today’s according to today’s standards.standards.
What…?What…?
Surface measurements seem to indicate a trend towards a warmer temperature.
What…?What…? Four periodsFour periods::
1880-1910: -0,1 °C;1880-1910: -0,1 °C; 1911-1940: +0,4 °C;1911-1940: +0,4 °C; 1941-1967: -0,2 °C *;1941-1967: -0,2 °C *; 1968-1998: +0,5 °C.1968-1998: +0,5 °C.
* The 70s’ scam was global cooling!
What…?What…?
IS A NEW ICE AGE COMING?IS A NEW ICE AGE COMING?
““A cooling trend has set in, perhaps one A cooling trend has set in, perhaps one akin to the Little Ice Age”akin to the Little Ice Age”
Stephen Schneider, quote cited in Stephen Schneider, quote cited in The Washington TimesThe Washington Times, June 12, 1992, June 12, 1992
What…?What…?
Trend 1979-2003: + 0.079 °C per decade
(Trend 1968-98 as measured by surface stations: + 0.16°C)
What…?What…?
Trend 1968-98 as measured by surface stations:
+ 0.16°C… ± 0.3 °C !!!!!!
What…?What…?
To summarize:To summarize: We don’t know what’s happening;We don’t know what’s happening; We don’t know what we have We don’t know what we have actuallyactually measured so far; measured so far; We don’t know We don’t know howhow to measure it; to measure it; We don’t know We don’t know whywhy climate changes. climate changes.
How…?How…?
Climate alarmists are supporting the Kyoto Climate alarmists are supporting the Kyoto Protocol and other measures aimed at Protocol and other measures aimed at cutting GHGs;cutting GHGs;
We don’t know if manmade emissions We don’t know if manmade emissions have a significant role in climate change;have a significant role in climate change;
Probably they don’t, because climate Probably they don’t, because climate dynamics are governed by many factors dynamics are governed by many factors over which man has no control.over which man has no control.
What…?What…?
How…?How…?
Even assuming that anthropogenic emission have a role, Even assuming that anthropogenic emission have a role, the effect of complying with the Kyoto targets is negligible.the effect of complying with the Kyoto targets is negligible.
-0,2
0,2
0,6
1,0
1,4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
Ch
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(C
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-0,2
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0,6
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1,4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Te
mp
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ture
Ch
an
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(C
)
How…?How…?
How…?How…?
Unfortunately, Kyoto costs are Unfortunately, Kyoto costs are notnot negligible;negligible;
Kyoto requires a reduction in GHGs Kyoto requires a reduction in GHGs emission, i.e. energy consumption;emission, i.e. energy consumption;
Energy prices would rise because of Energy prices would rise because of Kyoto;Kyoto;
GDP would fall and thousands jobs would GDP would fall and thousands jobs would be lost.be lost.
How…?How…?
Developed Developed countries’ countries’ emission should emission should be zero by 2050 to be zero by 2050 to meet the IPCC meet the IPCC target of stabilizing target of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm.at 550 ppm.
How…?How…?
Most countries need huge cuts to comply with Most countries need huge cuts to comply with the post-2012 targets.the post-2012 targets.
How…?How…?
Despite its strong Despite its strong support to Kyoto, support to Kyoto, the EU is not on the EU is not on doing what it’s doing what it’s campaigning for.campaigning for.
How…?How…? The impact of the Kyoto Protocol in The impact of the Kyoto Protocol in
Europe would range from – 1.8% GDP Europe would range from – 1.8% GDP (UK) to – 4.8% GDP (Spain) (ICCF (UK) to – 4.8% GDP (Spain) (ICCF Estimates);Estimates);
The so called “emission trading” is a The so called “emission trading” is a scheme which would make emissions scheme which would make emissions reduction more efficient, therefore more reduction more efficient, therefore more costly to consumers.costly to consumers.
More info at www.iccfglobal.orgMore info at www.iccfglobal.org
Where…?Where…?
European Union is the biggest supporter European Union is the biggest supporter of Kyoto;of Kyoto;
However, EEA pointed out that EU However, EEA pointed out that EU emissions are growing despite the costly emissions are growing despite the costly policies member states are adopting (high policies member states are adopting (high energy prices, subsidies to renewables, energy prices, subsidies to renewables, etc.).etc.).
Where…?Where…?
The key country is Russia. Without The key country is Russia. Without Russia, Kyoto will not formally enter in Russia, Kyoto will not formally enter in force, because less than 55% emissions force, because less than 55% emissions are represented by the countries which are represented by the countries which have ratified so far.have ratified so far.
Russia is not likely to ratify, although it Russia is not likely to ratify, although it would be a short term winner because of would be a short term winner because of Kyoto.Kyoto.
Where…?Where…?
In the next few years, Russia could sell In the next few years, Russia could sell quotas (basically because the baseline quotas (basically because the baseline year is 1990, just after the collapse of year is 1990, just after the collapse of USSR);USSR);
President Putin declared his economic President Putin declared his economic goal is to double GDP by 10 years;goal is to double GDP by 10 years;
That will not be possible if Russia will not That will not be possible if Russia will not buy quotas in the longer run.buy quotas in the longer run.
Where…?Where…?
In the In the longer longer run, run, Russia Russia would would be a be a looser.looser.
Kyoto 2012 limit
Post-Kyoto Targets
Actual
Conservative forecast
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
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19
98
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04
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20
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20
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20
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20
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Mln
t
Seller Buyer
Where…?Where…?
““I have called my speech 'The Return of I have called my speech 'The Return of Gosplan. But the proposed mechanism would Gosplan. But the proposed mechanism would decrease quotas year by year. ... So it may be decrease quotas year by year. ... So it may be more correct to call it the return of the gulag.”more correct to call it the return of the gulag.”
““During the 20th century, Russia seriously During the 20th century, Russia seriously suffered from another ideology that came from suffered from another ideology that came from Europe. ... Not only Russia, but the whole world Europe. ... Not only Russia, but the whole world suffered.”suffered.” Andrej Illarionov, Chief Economic Advisor to the Andrej Illarionov, Chief Economic Advisor to the
Russian President Vladimir PutinRussian President Vladimir Putin
Where…?Where…? ““At a ministerial meeting in Brussels on Tuesday At a ministerial meeting in Brussels on Tuesday
(March 3rd, 2004)environment minister Altero (March 3rd, 2004)environment minister Altero Matteoli made a prolonged attempt to force a Matteoli made a prolonged attempt to force a declaration from his colleagues that future emission-declaration from his colleagues that future emission-cutting action should depend on the treaty being cutting action should depend on the treaty being ratified by Russia and thus entering into force.” ratified by Russia and thus entering into force.” ((Environmental DailyEnvironmental Daily))
““We hope that Kyoto will be ratified, for example by We hope that Kyoto will be ratified, for example by Russia. But if that doesn't happen, it will distort Russia. But if that doesn't happen, it will distort competition at the expense of European and competition at the expense of European and especially German economy,” German especially German economy,” German Chancellor Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.Gerhard Schroeder.
““We are following a strategy (of respecting the We are following a strategy (of respecting the Kyoto Protocol) at the moment, but we need to look Kyoto Protocol) at the moment, but we need to look at other possible scenarios,” EU Energy at other possible scenarios,” EU Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio.Commissioner Loyola de Palacio.
EU leaders hide themselves behind Putin’s finger!EU leaders hide themselves behind Putin’s finger!
When…?When…?
Kyoto’s first commitment period is just behind Kyoto’s first commitment period is just behind the corner (2008-2012);the corner (2008-2012);
IFIF EU and others EU and others reallyreally want to implement it, want to implement it, they should go further they should go further nownow – or doing nothing; – or doing nothing;
IPCC targets are much stricter for the post-2012 IPCC targets are much stricter for the post-2012 period;period;
Do we Do we reallyreally want to prevent economic growth want to prevent economic growth because of “bad weather” 100 years from now?because of “bad weather” 100 years from now?
When…?When…? Assuming that EU will go on with Kyoto, Assuming that EU will go on with Kyoto,
the question is not the question is not ifif, but , but whenwhen a member a member country will reject the treaty;country will reject the treaty;
What’s EU going to do if faced with a What’s EU going to do if faced with a reluctant country?reluctant country?
Trade sanctions? Expulsion? In the latter Trade sanctions? Expulsion? In the latter case, the anti-Kyoto country could be case, the anti-Kyoto country could be better off (fewer trade barriers, lower better off (fewer trade barriers, lower taxes, lighter regulation, etc.)taxes, lighter regulation, etc.)
When…?When…?GDP growth in 1997-2003
2,0
3,1
0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5
17 Pro-Kyoto Developed Economies(EU15, Canada, Japan)
11 Non-Kyoto Developed Economies(USA, Australia, Taiwan, Korea,Hong Kong, Singapore, Israel,
Mexico, Cyprus, Malta)
pe
r c
en
t
Who…?Who…?
Basically there are two kind of people who Basically there are two kind of people who are pushing towards Kyoto:are pushing towards Kyoto: People who have an People who have an economicaleconomical or or politicalpolitical
interest in climate policies;interest in climate policies; People who have an People who have an ideologicalideological interest in interest in
climate policies;climate policies; Their behavior is well described by the Their behavior is well described by the
“baptists and bootleggers” theory.“baptists and bootleggers” theory.
Who…?Who…?
The “baptists and bootleggers” theory shows The “baptists and bootleggers” theory shows how two appartently conflicting groups may how two appartently conflicting groups may pursue the same goal;pursue the same goal;
The term originates in the Southern USA, The term originates in the Southern USA, where in the past and even today Sunday where in the past and even today Sunday closing laws prevent the legal sale of alcoholic closing laws prevent the legal sale of alcoholic beverages.beverages.
Who…?Who…?
This is advantageous This is advantageous to bootleggers, who to bootleggers, who sell alcoholic sell alcoholic beverages illegally;beverages illegally;
They get all the They get all the market for themselves market for themselves on Sunday.on Sunday.
Who…?Who…? Baptists and other Baptists and other
religious groups religious groups support the same support the same laws;laws;
They are opposed to They are opposed to selling alcohol at all, selling alcohol at all, but especially on but especially on Sunday.Sunday.
Who…?Who…?
Baptists take the Baptists take the moral high ground;moral high ground;
The bootleggers The bootleggers persuade politicians persuade politicians quietly, behind closed quietly, behind closed doors.doors.
Who…?Who…? Climate baptists are (radical) environmentalists, Climate baptists are (radical) environmentalists,
who make an ideological opposition to whatever who make an ideological opposition to whatever change man may do to the environment change man may do to the environment (including urbanization, industrialization, and (including urbanization, industrialization, and perhaps agriculture);perhaps agriculture);
(Radical) environmentalists have a “gnostic” (Radical) environmentalists have a “gnostic” approach to policy: they believe that man is approach to policy: they believe that man is inherently ugly; so government should prevent inherently ugly; so government should prevent men from behaving as men;men from behaving as men;
(Radical) environmentalists see global warming (Radical) environmentalists see global warming as a means to pursue their political goal, i.e. the as a means to pursue their political goal, i.e. the “animalization” of man.“animalization” of man.
Who…?Who…?
““To capture the public imagination, we have to To capture the public imagination, we have to offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements and little mention of any dramatic statements and little mention of any doubts one might have. Each of us has to doubts one might have. Each of us has to decide the right balance between being decide the right balance between being effective, and being honest” effective, and being honest”
Stephen SchneiderStephen Schneider
Who…?Who…?
Climate bootleggers are environmental Climate bootleggers are environmental opportunists, and economical/political rent opportunists, and economical/political rent seekers;seekers;
For example, the wind industry in particular (and For example, the wind industry in particular (and renewables industry in general) is lobbying for renewables industry in general) is lobbying for getting subsidies;getting subsidies;
Some politicians fuel environmental scams in Some politicians fuel environmental scams in order to “sell” themselves as those who are order to “sell” themselves as those who are saving our only planet… and get votes.saving our only planet… and get votes.
Who…?Who…?
““The urge to save humanity is almost always The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”a false front for the urge to rule.”
H.L. MenckenH.L. Mencken
Why…?Why…? The reasons of climate bootleggers are easy to The reasons of climate bootleggers are easy to
understand:understand: Industry seeks immediate benefits;Industry seeks immediate benefits; Politicians seek power;Politicians seek power;
Climate baptists are the heirs of the old central Climate baptists are the heirs of the old central planners:planners: They believe human action should be directed by a They believe human action should be directed by a
sort of “central brain” which takes care of all;sort of “central brain” which takes care of all; They also believe that market (i.e., freedom) is They also believe that market (i.e., freedom) is
dangerous because man is bad-intentioned in the first dangerous because man is bad-intentioned in the first place.place.
Why…?Why…? In fact, climate baptists, as well as other In fact, climate baptists, as well as other
environmental baptists, are simply environmental baptists, are simply socialists;socialists;
After the collapse of communism (which After the collapse of communism (which incidentally was responsible of incidentally was responsible of realreal environmental tragedies), the red dream of environmental tragedies), the red dream of a man-made Earthly heaven have turned a man-made Earthly heaven have turned into the green dream of a man-free, into the green dream of a man-free, Earthly heaven.Earthly heaven.
Why…?Why…?
Often environmental concerns may be Often environmental concerns may be founded, but the solution proposed by founded, but the solution proposed by most environmentalist organization is not a most environmentalist organization is not a cure;cure;
Statism will lead to a lower environmental Statism will lead to a lower environmental quality because it implies an inefficient use quality because it implies an inefficient use of scarce resources (including of scarce resources (including environmental resources).environmental resources).
Why…?Why…?
Climate change is an opportunity for them to Climate change is an opportunity for them to propose a global deal against capitalism, i.e. propose a global deal against capitalism, i.e. global socialism;global socialism;
Rent seekers are doing their job, that is, seeking Rent seekers are doing their job, that is, seeking rents;rents;
Consumers, especially the poor, would be Consumers, especially the poor, would be deeply impacted by Kyoto because of higher deeply impacted by Kyoto because of higher price of energy, lower standards of living, and price of energy, lower standards of living, and fewer opportunities of getting richer.fewer opportunities of getting richer.
ConclusionsConclusions Is climate warming? Maybe!Is climate warming? Maybe!
Climate is always changing;Climate is always changing; It makes no sense to address It makes no sense to address naturalnatural changes changes
by way of by way of anthropogenicanthropogenic measures; measures; Kyoto would result in immediate, relevant Kyoto would result in immediate, relevant
costs vis-a-vis distant in time, uncertain costs vis-a-vis distant in time, uncertain benefits;benefits;
It is unlikely that extra-EU, developed It is unlikely that extra-EU, developed countries will ratify Kyoto.countries will ratify Kyoto.
ConclusionsConclusions
The first commitment period is 2008-2012, so if The first commitment period is 2008-2012, so if we want to do something, we must do it we want to do something, we must do it nownow – – and we can’t afford it (EU’s growth last year was and we can’t afford it (EU’s growth last year was not growth at all);not growth at all);
The Kyoto protocol is sponsored by a coalition of The Kyoto protocol is sponsored by a coalition of climate baptists and bootleggers: they are not climate baptists and bootleggers: they are not the very kind of people you find reliable;the very kind of people you find reliable;
Climate control is not about climate: it is about Climate control is not about climate: it is about control.control.
ConclusionsConclusions We should focus on We should focus on realreal problems and problems and factsfacts, ,
rather than environmental scams;rather than environmental scams; The most urgent need to address is poverty The most urgent need to address is poverty
(almost 1 billion are starving), not weather;(almost 1 billion are starving), not weather; The key to progress is the creation of wealth, The key to progress is the creation of wealth,
which make it possible which make it possible adaptationadaptation to changes, to changes, whether anthropogenic or natural;whether anthropogenic or natural;
Free market save human lives and makes Free market save human lives and makes environment cleaner;environment cleaner;
Wealthier is healthier for all – except for Wealthier is healthier for all – except for ideological environmentalists and rent seekers.ideological environmentalists and rent seekers.
Thank you for your attention
Carlo Stagnaro
Director, Free Market Environmentalism
Contact: [email protected]