global warming: hoax or current and present danger jagadish shukla university professor college of...

Global Warming: Hoax or Global Warming: Hoax or Current and Present Current and Present

DangerDanger

Jagadish ShuklaJagadish ShuklaUniversity ProfessorUniversity Professor

College of Science (COS), George Mason University (GMU)College of Science (COS), George Mason University (GMU)

President, Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES)President, Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES)

2nd India Disaster Management CongressVigyan Bhavan, New Delhi, 4 Nov 2009

Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies

““Revolution in Climate Prediction is Both Necessary and PossibleRevolution in Climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible””Shukla, Hagedorn, Hoskins, Kinter, Marotzke, Miller, Palmer, and Slingo, Shukla, Hagedorn, Hoskins, Kinter, Marotzke, Miller, Palmer, and Slingo, BAMSBAMS, Feb 2009, pp 175-, Feb 2009, pp 175-

178178

(Climate Prediction and Disaster Management)

OutlineOutline

Center of Ocean-Land-Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studiesAtmosphere studies

1.Science• Greenhouse effect; Global warming• Fear-mongering Hoax or Real and Present Danger!• Observed and Projected Changes• Ethics and Sustainability

2. Climate Prediction and Disaster Management

(Protection of lives and livelihoods)

Great Natural Disasters Great Natural Disasters 1950 – 20051950 – 2005

Number of eventsNumber of events

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire)

Flood

StormEarthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption

© 2006 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re


Global WarmingGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. (Wikipedia)

0.76°C (1.4°F) since 1900

0.55°C (1.0°F) since 1979

Global Temperature Change (oC)

Annual Mean5-year Mean

The Climate of a Planet Depends On …The Climate of a Planet Depends On …1. Energy from the Sun

(energy from the interior)

2. Planetary Albedo

3. Speed of Planet’s Rotation

4. Mass of the Planet

5. Radius of the Planet

6. Atmospheric Composition

7. Ocean-Land, Topography

S

M

a

H2O, CO2, O3, clouds

h*


• If there were no greenhouse gases the Earth’s temperature would be about 0F (not 59F)

• Greenhouse effect is real; without it, the Earth would be uninhabitable.

• Feedbacks amplify the warming by greenhouse gases.

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect(The Cause of Global Warming)


Monthly Mean Carbon DioxideMonthly Mean Carbon DioxideNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse GasesNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases

Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios determined from the continuous monitoring programs at the 4 NOAA CMDL baseline observations. Principal investigator: Dr. Pieter Tans. NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. Boulder, Colorado. (303) 497-6678


An Elegant Science Question: An Elegant Science Question: Are increases in greenhouse gases responsible for

increase in global mean temperature (global warming)?


0.76°C (1.4°F) since 1900

0.55°C (1.0°F) since 1979

395

365

335

305

275

14.6

14.4

14.0

13.8

13.4

14.2

13.6

Global Temperature & Carbon Dioxide 1860-2008

Science and PoliticsScience and Politics


Percentage of Democrats/Republicans who said that news of global warming was exaggerated (Gallup)

1998 2004 2008

Democrats 23% 22% 18%

Republicans 34% 60% 59%

Thanks: Ed Maibach, Center for Climate Change Communication (GMU)

Let us look at Let us look at the Observations.the Observations.



Global Mean TemperatureGlobal Mean Temperature

(Himalayas)


•The blue error bars include only the contributions from uncertainties in the GRACE gravity fields. Velicogna and Wahr (2006)

Greenland Ice MassGreenland Ice Mass

25% of Wild Mammal Species Face Extinction

Global Assessment Paints 'Bleak Picture' Scientists Say,

and Figure of Those at Risk Could Be Higher

By Juliet Eilperin

Washington Post Staff Writer

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

BARCELONA, Oct. 6 - At least a quarter of the

world's wild mammal species are at risk of

extinction, according to a comprehensive global

survey released here Monday.



Observed & Projected Global Mean WarmingObserved & Projected Global Mean Warming

Global Warming is Global Warming is Real and Unequivocal Real and Unequivocal

• Rising Temperatures (land, ocean)

• More Hot Days; Less Frost Days

• Melting Glaciers and Arctic Sea Ice

• Decreasing Winter Snow Cover

• Rising sea level

• Poleward and Northward Shift of SpeciesCenter of Ocean-Land-

Atmosphere studies

ImpactsImpacts


Florida with 3 feet of Sea-Level Rise

Areas in red would be under water

with a 3 foot rise in sea level,

projected for this century.

Coastal areas are at increasing risk Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.from sea-level rise and storm surge.


Mohamed Nasheed President of the Maldives

WANTED: New Home for My CountryWANTED: New Home for My Country


Number of Days Over 100ºF

Increases in very high temperatures Increases in very high temperatures will have wide-ranging effects.will have wide-ranging effects.

Recent Past, 1961-1979

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099


Summary of Major ImpactsSummary of Major Impacts

• Heat waves; Droughts; Forest fires

• Coastal area’s habitability (sea level)

• Health (cholera; malaria; dengue; lyme)

• Biodiversity: extinction of species

• Agriculture (uneven); Tropics (serious)

• Water (drying; snow melt; glacier melt)Center of Ocean-Land-

Atmosphere studies

Global Well-Being Global Well-Being (sustainability, security (sustainability, security

and the future of civilization)and the future of civilization)

The Global ChallengeThe Global Challenge

Inequality and Inequality and Extreme PovertyExtreme Poverty

Human PopulationHuman PopulationGrowthGrowth

EnvironmentalEnvironmentalDegradationDegradation


• “Polluter must pay”(We (US) are the biggest polluters but we also have the biggest guns.)

• Those who have contributed the least to global warming will suffer the most and the earliest.

• Poor countries would like to improve the quality of life of their people (consume more energy).

• Sustainable developement in a changing climate is challenged by population growth and exetreme poverty.

Ethics of Global WarmingEthics of Global Warming



Which Countries are Emitting Which Countries are Emitting the Most per Capita Greenhouse the Most per Capita Greenhouse

Gases?Gases?

Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions Emissions


• In 2005, global emissions were 27 billion tons of CO2

• Per capita, emission (27/6.7 billions) = 4 tons/per capita/yr

• US emissions = 20 tons/per capita/yr

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (India)Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (India)Sharma et. al (2008); PM Council (2008)Sharma et. al (2008); PM Council (2008)

• GHG (1994) = CO2 (63%) + CH4 (33%) + N2O (4%) = CO2Eq

• GHG = CO2Eq unit: Million Metric Tons (Mt)

• Rate of Increase 2000-2004 (GHG): 4.2% per year

Year 1990 1994 2000 2004 2020

GHG 998 1228 1484 1748 3000


Global Carbon Dioxide (Global Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions ) Emissions (2004)(2004)

CO2 (Gt)Population

(millions)Tons per person

World 27.1 6365.0 4.25

USA 5.9 293.7 20.01

India 1.1 1079.7 1.02

China 4.7 1296.2 3.60

Unit: Billion Metric Tons (Gt)

(PM Council, 2008)


2020: Projections for 2020: Projections for CO2Emissions Emissions (India, USA)(India, USA)

• USA: 20% below 2004; 4.7Gt; (4.7/338.4M) ~ 14 tons/person

• India: 72% above 2004; 3Gt; (3/1332M) ~ 2.3 tons/person

• USA: 50% below 2004: 2.9Gt; (2.9/404M) ~7.2 tons/person

• India: 2% increase 2020-2050; 5.4Gt; (5.4/1620M) ~ 3.3 tons/person

3% increase 2020-2050; 7.3Gt; (7.3/1620M) ~ 4.5 tons/person

2050: Projections for CO2 Emissions (India, USA)


• Damages from business-as-usual scenario would be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year

• Costs of removing most of the climate risk are around 1% of GDP per year

• This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy

• “We can grow and be green”

Sir Nicholas Stern

STERN REVIEW: STERN REVIEW: Main threat to a sustainable EarthMain threat to a sustainable Earth


Need for Accurate and Reliable Climate PredictionNeed for Accurate and Reliable Climate Predictionat Regional Scale at Regional Scale


1. Protection of lives

2. Agriculture and food security

3. Tourism

4. Energy supply and demand

5. Health epidemics

6. Water resource management

Climate prediction requires high-resolution global Climate prediction requires high-resolution global modelsmodels

Evolution of ECMWF Forecast SkillEvolution of ECMWF Forecast Skill


Simulation and Prediction of Asian Simulation and Prediction of Asian Monsoon by Climate ModelsMonsoon by Climate Models

•Mean Climate

•Climate Change


“Computer modeling of global climate is perhaps

the most complex endeavor ever undertaken

by mankind.”

Kerry Emanuel (2007)What We Know About Climate Change

(MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts)


Bjorn Stevens, UCLAWorld Modelling Summit, ECMWF, May 2008

Annually & Zonally Averaged SW Radiation (AR4)Annually & Zonally Averaged SW Radiation (AR4)

Annual cycle of Rainfall over Annual cycle of Rainfall over IndiaIndia

Daily Clim

Daily Clim.

Monthly Clim.


Changes in Indian Monsoon Changes in Indian Monsoon

due to Global Warming: due to Global Warming:

A Challenge (Large Uncertainty)A Challenge (Large Uncertainty)



JJAS Precipitation (1979-1998)JJAS Precipitation (1979-1998)

Observation Model: 20C3M

IPCC Models are unable to simulate mean monsoon rainfall.


JJAS PrecipitationJJAS PrecipitationIPCC Model: 20C3M

1979-1998Observed TRMM


JJAS Surface JJAS Surface

TemperatureTemperature

SRES minus C20C (79-98)

IPCC Models show warming of surface temperature due to

doubling of CO2


JJAS JJAS

PrecipitationPrecipitation

SRES minus C20C (79-98)

Change in precipitation due to global warming is

model dependent.

`

(Sun et al, 2005, J. Climate)

LATITUDE

More from regional model simulations over NE Brazil

Improvement of Mean Climate using a Regional Improvement of Mean Climate using a Regional ModelModel

Rai

nfal

l Am

ount

6S 4S 2S EQ 2N 4N 6N 8N 10N

Average Rainfall (Feb-Mar-Apr)off NE coast of S. America

Obs.

GCM

ITCZ placement is much improved in RCM, and…

RCM

Daily Rainfall Amount

Fre

quen

cy (

# D

ays)

5

10

15

20

25

30

Frequency of Daily Rainfall (Feb-Mar-Apr)

frequency of daily rainfall amounts within the seasonis improved.

Obs.

RCMGCM

Slide courtesy of Lisa Goddard



Rupa Kumar et. al. (2006; Current Science)

HadCM3/PRECIS Gives More India HadCM3/PRECIS Gives More India Rainfall with Global WarmingRainfall with Global Warming

HadCM3/NASA FVGCM/RegCM3

Changes in (A2 minus Reference) in precipitation Changes in (A2 minus Reference) in precipitation (mm/day) due to global warming as simulated by (mm/day) due to global warming as simulated by

regional modelsregional models

HadCM3/PRECIS(Rupa Kumar et al., 2006, Current Science)(Ashfaq et al., 2009, GRL)

(RegCM3 produces weaker monsoon; PRECIS produces stronger monsoon due to global warming)

July


JJAS

%


WMS takes place at ECMWF (6-9 May 2008). WMS takes place at ECMWF (6-9 May 2008). Nearly 150 participants from all modelling Nearly 150 participants from all modelling

centers of the world.centers of the world.

Article in Nature, May 2008

From Cyclone Resolving Global ModelsFrom Cyclone Resolving Global Modelstoto

Cloud System Resolving Global ModelsCloud System Resolving Global Models

1. Planetary Scale Resolving Models (1970~): Δx~500Km

2. Cyclone Resolving Models (1980~): Δx~100-300Km

3. Mesoscale Resolving Models (1990~): Δx~10-30Km

4. Cloud System Resolving Models (2000 ~): Δx~3-5Km

Organized Convection

CloudSystem

MesoscaleSystem

SynopticScale

PlanetaryScale

ConvectiveHeating

ConvectiveHeating MJOMJO ENSOENSO Climate

Change

ClimateChange

Seamless Prediction of Weather and ClimateSeamless Prediction of Weather and Climate


Yelick, U.C. BerkeleyYelick, U.C. BerkeleyWorld Modelling Summit, ECMWF, May 2008World Modelling Summit, ECMWF, May 2008

Petaflop with ~1M Cores by 2008Petaflop with ~1M Cores by 2008


(b) Coupled model (2 degree)- Climatology -

Monsoon Rainfall in Low Resolution ModelMonsoon Rainfall in Low Resolution Model

Oouchi et al. 2009: (a) Observed and (b) simulated precipitation rate over the Indo-Chinamonsoon region as June-July-August average (in units of mm day -1). The observed precipitation is from TRMM_3B42, and the simulation is for 7km-mesh run.

Monsoon Rainfall in High Resolution ModelMonsoon Rainfall in High Resolution Model


International Research and Computational International Research and Computational Facility to Revolutionize Climate Facility to Revolutionize Climate

PredictionPredictionExamples of International Collaboration

• CERN: European Organization for Nuclear Research (Geneva, Switzerland)

• ITER: International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (Gadarache, France)

• ISS: International Space Station (somewhere in sky..)

WHAT ABOUT CLIMATE PREDICTION?


International Research and Computational International Research and Computational Facility to Revolutionize Climate Facility to Revolutionize Climate

PredictionPrediction1. Computational Requirement:

- Sustained Capability of 2 Petaflops by 2011

- Sustained Capability of 10 Petaflops by 2015

Earth Simulator (sustained 7.5 Teraflops) takes 6 hours for 1 day forecast using 3.5 km global atmosphere model; ECMWF (sustained 2 Teraflops) takes 20 minutes for 10 day forecast using 24 km global model

2. Scientific Staff Requirement:

- Team of 200 scientists to develop next generation climate model- Distributed team of 500 scientists (diagnostics, experiments)

A computing capability of sustained 2 Petaflops will enable 100 years of integration of coupled ocean-atmosphere model of 5 km resolution in 1 month of real time


THANK YOU!

ANY QUESTIONS?


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