Global WarmingGlobal Warmingand Scienceand Science

April 21, 2008April 21, 2008

Dr. Nicholas DrapelaDr. Nicholas DrapelaDepartment of Chemistry,Department of Chemistry,Oregon State UniversityOregon State University

Who Am I?Who Am I?

Current Faculty, OSU Chemistry DepartmentCurrent Faculty, OSU Chemistry Department EducationEducation

– B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and PhysicsB.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics– Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product

SynthesisSynthesis Not a RepublicanNot a Republican Own no stocks in oil companies (or any Own no stocks in oil companies (or any

other companies)other companies) Love the outdoors and the environmentLove the outdoors and the environment Love polar bears and clean air and waterLove polar bears and clean air and water

Why This Talk?Why This Talk?

The Global Warming social The Global Warming social phenomenonphenomenon

The Global Warming mysteryThe Global Warming mystery– Scientific perspectivesScientific perspectives– Journalistic perspectivesJournalistic perspectives

A story of discoveryA story of discovery

Truth – Some thoughtsTruth – Some thoughts

The truth has no agendaThe truth has no agenda The truth is not dependent on The truth is not dependent on

consensus, real or artificialconsensus, real or artificial The challenge of finding the truthThe challenge of finding the truth

Science – The FocusScience – The Focus

This talk focuses on the This talk focuses on the sciencescience behind Global Warmingbehind Global Warming

Next week’s talk: Sociopolitical Next week’s talk: Sociopolitical aspectsaspects

These talks are intended for These talks are intended for general audiencesgeneral audiences

Introductory PointsIntroductory Points

Successful societal endeavors Successful societal endeavors must be based on factual must be based on factual information, not popularityinformation, not popularity

Any new theory bears the burden Any new theory bears the burden of proof, not the other way of proof, not the other way aroundaround

Part 1Part 1

What is global warming?What is global warming?

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

The The unnaturalunnatural warming of the warming of the entire earth, caused by increases entire earth, caused by increases in in carbon dioxidecarbon dioxide due to due to human human activitiesactivities, which is a , which is a threat to life threat to life on earthon earth as we know it. as we know it.

Key points:Key points:– Caused by COCaused by CO22

– produced by human activityproduced by human activity– represents serious threat to the represents serious threat to the

earthearth

http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.html

What Makes Up This What Makes Up This Greenhouse?Greenhouse?

Gases in our atmosphere which Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and radiate absorb IR waves and radiate some of the heat back toward the some of the heat back toward the earthearth– MethaneMethane– Nitrous oxideNitrous oxide– ChlorofluorocarbonsChlorofluorocarbons

– Carbon dioxide (COCarbon dioxide (CO22))

Global Warming Global Warming DoctrineDoctrine

Modern society burns fossil fuels such asModern society burns fossil fuels such as– Gasoline, natural gas, coalGasoline, natural gas, coal

All of these give off COAll of these give off CO22 as they burn as they burn

The added COThe added CO22 in the atmosphere increases in the atmosphere increases the greenhouse effect on the earththe greenhouse effect on the earth

This is increasing the temperature of the This is increasing the temperature of the earth beyond its normal rangeearth beyond its normal range

Soon, this will result in disastrous Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences for life on earthconsequences for life on earth

The only way to avoid this is to reduce world The only way to avoid this is to reduce world COCO22 emissions emissions

Predictions From Predictions From Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Rising sea levelsRising sea levels Massive droughtMassive drought Food shortagesFood shortages Species extinctionSpecies extinction Severe natural Severe natural

disastersdisasters Disease, famine, Disease, famine,

deathdeath

http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions

http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcticReport.cfm

Global Warming Global Warming PhilosophyPhilosophy

This is an This is an existential existential world world crisiscrisis

We are We are running running out of out of timetime

Part 2Part 2

None of this is trueNone of this is true

PreviewPreview

There is no factual evidence to show There is no factual evidence to show that the earth is now above its that the earth is now above its normal, historical temperature range.normal, historical temperature range.

There is no factual evidence to show There is no factual evidence to show that it soon will be, or ever will be.that it soon will be, or ever will be.

Even if it were, COEven if it were, CO22 could not be could not be causing it.causing it.

COCO22 Is Not a Pollutant Is Not a Pollutant

It is a critical part of the biosphereIt is a critical part of the biosphere Without COWithout CO22, life could not exist, life could not exist Asbestos, dioxin, chlorofluorocarbons, Asbestos, dioxin, chlorofluorocarbons,

heavy metal ions, organomercury heavy metal ions, organomercury compounds…these are pollutantscompounds…these are pollutants

=

Fact #1Fact #1 There is indeed a greenhouse effect There is indeed a greenhouse effect

on the earth; and that is goodon the earth; and that is good If there were not, the earth’s If there were not, the earth’s

temperature would drop by roughly temperature would drop by roughly 6060°F, ending life as we know it on °F, ending life as we know it on earthearth

Fact #2Fact #2

Global Warming theory is based on Global Warming theory is based on modelsmodels, not on evidence, not on evidence

These computer models are made These computer models are made up by people, and are limited byup by people, and are limited by– the programmerthe programmer– our scientific knowledgeour scientific knowledge– the ethics of the people who invent the ethics of the people who invent

themthemhttp://www.physorg.com/news593.html

The The Famous Famous Hockey Hockey StickStick

The only The only irregular irregular part of the part of the graph is the graph is the model, not model, not the datathe data

McIntyre, Stephen; Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 2, 32

Fact #3Fact #3 These models have These models have

already shown to be already shown to be incorrectincorrect

Model prediction: Model prediction: Troposphere warmingTroposphere warming

Actual fact: No Actual fact: No significant troposphere significant troposphere warming is occurringwarming is occurring– Balloon and satellite Balloon and satellite

data agree on this data agree on this independentlyindependentlyhttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html

HurricanesHurricanes Model prediction: 2006 Model prediction: 2006

worst hurricane year on worst hurricane year on recordrecord

Actual fact: 2006, Actual fact: 2006, 2007 two of the 2007 two of the calmest hurricane calmest hurricane seasons in historyseasons in history

Many other model Many other model failures existfailures exist

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurricanes/index.html

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-11-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm

Past PredictionsPast Predictions ““In ten years all important In ten years all important

animal life in the sea will be animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be coastline will have to be evacuated because of the evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.”stench of dead fish.”– Paul Ehrlich, Center for Paul Ehrlich, Center for

Conservation Biology, Conservation Biology, Stanford UniversityStanford University

– Predicted in 1970Predicted in 1970

Fact #4Fact #4

Global warming predictions Global warming predictions commonly change to fit whatever commonly change to fit whatever data is most recently discovereddata is most recently discovered– More rain, then less rainMore rain, then less rain– Ice cap melting, then ice cap growingIce cap melting, then ice cap growing– Drought, then floodingDrought, then flooding

No piece of information can be used No piece of information can be used to disprove the doctrineto disprove the doctrine

http://www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_rainfall.html

Fact #5Fact #5 Weather records show that increased Weather records show that increased

human COhuman CO22 emissions have been emissions have been linked to linked to decreaseddecreased earth earth temperatures from 1940-1980temperatures from 1940-1980

Fact #6Fact #6 The amount of COThe amount of CO22 released and absorbed released and absorbed

by oceans each year dwarfs the amount by oceans each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humansemitted by humans

93% of all CO93% of all CO22 in the earth and its in the earth and its atmosphere is contained in the oceanatmosphere is contained in the ocean

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html

Fact #7Fact #7

When oceans When oceans warm, they warm, they release COrelease CO22

This is why This is why [CO[CO22] has ] has increased and increased and decreased decreased over timeover time

Inconveniently Inconveniently SeparatedSeparated

TemperatureTemperature/CO/CO22 correlation in correlation in ice core ice core records from records from “An “An Inconvenient Inconvenient Truth”Truth”

Why are the Why are the graphs graphs separated?separated?

COCO22 Levels Follow Temp Levels Follow Temp ChangesChanges

Note on close inspection that CONote on close inspection that CO22 lags lags behindbehind temperature, not the reverse temperature, not the reverse

(Also note that CO(Also note that CO22 levels have been levels have been naturally varying for eons w/o human naturally varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)fossil fuel emissions)

Fact #8Fact #8 The most abundant greenhouse gas in the The most abundant greenhouse gas in the

atmosphere, by far,…is water vaporatmosphere, by far,…is water vapor 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is

due to water vapordue to water vapor

http://www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/atmosphere.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html

Fact #9Fact #9 Other planets in our solar system are Other planets in our solar system are

warming as wellwarming as well Numerous studies are showing that Numerous studies are showing that

Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warmingTriton are all warming

http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html

Martian IcecapsMartian Icecaps The icecaps on Mars are meltingThe icecaps on Mars are melting If COIf CO22 is the culprit, why is Mars also is the culprit, why is Mars also

warming?warming?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

Martian WarmingMartian Warming "Mars has global warming, "Mars has global warming,

but without a greenhouse but without a greenhouse and without the and without the participation of Martians.”participation of Martians.”– Dr. Habibullo AbdussamatovDr. Habibullo Abdussamatov

Director, Space Research Director, Space Research LaboratoryLaboratoryPulkovo Astronomical Pulkovo Astronomical ObservatoryObservatoryRussian Academy of ScienceRussian Academy of Science

http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

Fact #10Fact #10 In the last 4 months, almost all “lost” In the last 4 months, almost all “lost”

polar ice has returnedpolar ice has returned This fact is reported by the National This fact is reported by the National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Administration (NOAA)

http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html

Growing Growing Ice CapsIce Caps

““The ice between Canada and southwestern The ice between Canada and southwestern Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 years.”years.”– Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008

Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one third higher than normal for this time of yearthird higher than normal for this time of year

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-warming

Polar Bear PartyPolar Bear Party Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear

numbers are increasingnumbers are increasing Canadian government survey: Polar bear Canadian government survey: Polar bear

population has increased 250% in last 20 population has increased 250% in last 20 yearsyears

The indigenous Inuit people report the sameThe indigenous Inuit people report the same

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868

Fact #11Fact #11 When compared with larger-When compared with larger-

timeframe historical temperatures, timeframe historical temperatures, current earth temperatures are in the current earth temperatures are in the normal rangenormal range

Poor Sample of Poor Sample of History?History? ““We have made ourselves a very We have made ourselves a very

poor experiment, because poor experiment, because instrumental meteorological instrumental meteorological observations started precisely at the observations started precisely at the lowest temperature observed in the lowest temperature observed in the past 10,000 years.”past 10,000 years.”– JJørgen Peder Steffensen,ørgen Peder Steffensen,

Curator Geophysics,Curator Geophysics,

Niels Bohr InstituteNiels Bohr Institute

Confirming DataConfirming Data

C-14 samples from tree rings and C-14 samples from tree rings and peat bogs confirm this historical peat bogs confirm this historical temperature patterntemperature pattern

So do data from stalactite caves So do data from stalactite caves in China and North Africain China and North Africa

Fact #12Fact #12 Global Warming Theory arose Global Warming Theory arose

essentially overnight, as a political essentially overnight, as a political product of the United Nations, with product of the United Nations, with little or no scientific scrutinylittle or no scientific scrutiny

Graphic from 1990 report by International Panel on Climate Change

Historical Records and Historical Records and AccountsAccounts Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1100-Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1100-

1400 AD)1400 AD) Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800 AD)Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800 AD)

Mann’s Hockey Stick, Mann’s Hockey Stick, 19981998 Dr. Michael Mann, Adjunct Asst. Dr. Michael Mann, Adjunct Asst.

Professor, University of MassachusettsProfessor, University of Massachusetts

A Memory Hole?A Memory Hole?

In Mann’s paper, the Medieval Warm In Mann’s paper, the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age became non-Period and Little Ice Age became non-eventsevents

Selective data is chosen and displayed Selective data is chosen and displayed alongside speculative statistical dataalongside speculative statistical data

““An increasing body of observations gives a An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.”other changes in the climate system.”– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), 2001, Lead Author – Michael Mann(IPCC), 2001, Lead Author – Michael Mann

The IPCCThe IPCC

The International Panel on Climate The International Panel on Climate Change is a body of the United Change is a body of the United NationsNations

It is not a scientific body; it is a It is not a scientific body; it is a politicalpolitical body body

Climate Change Climate Change AuthorityAuthority The IPCC is a self-appointed world The IPCC is a self-appointed world

authority on climate changeauthority on climate change The structure of the IPCC, 1990The structure of the IPCC, 1990

– Working Group 1 (Science)Working Group 1 (Science)– Working Group 2 (Sociology, Working Group 2 (Sociology,

Economics)Economics)– Working Group 3 (Public Policy)Working Group 3 (Public Policy)

The curious role of scientists in the The curious role of scientists in the IPCCIPCC

IPCC on ItselfIPCC on Itself

““The IPCC work aims at the The IPCC work aims at the promotion of the United Nations promotion of the United Nations goals.”goals.”

““When governments accept IPCC When governments accept IPCC reports, they acknowledge their reports, they acknowledge their legitimacy.”legitimacy.”

““The IPCC produces regular reports The IPCC produces regular reports which immediately become which immediately become standard works of reference.”standard works of reference.”

http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

Global Warming in the Global Warming in the MediaMedia20062006

Fact #13Fact #13

Despite strenuous and expensive Despite strenuous and expensive propaganda attempts to claim propaganda attempts to claim consensus and the end of debate, consensus and the end of debate, Global Warming theory is becoming Global Warming theory is becoming less scientifically accepted each yearless scientifically accepted each year

2008 International Conference on 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, New YorkClimate Change, New York– March 2-4, 2008March 2-4, 2008

Non-BelieversNon-Believers

John Coleman, Founder of the John Coleman, Founder of the Weather ChannelWeather Channel

Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of GreenpeaceGreenpeace

Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and climate expertMeteorology and climate expert

Dr. Willile Soon, Harvard PhysicistDr. Willile Soon, Harvard Physicisthttp://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/

http://www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/FeaturedArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=16260

http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945

Weather Channel Weather Channel FounderFounder

““It is the greatest scam It is the greatest scam in history. I am in history. I am amazed, appalled, and amazed, appalled, and highly offended by it. highly offended by it. Global Warming; it is a Global Warming; it is a scam.”scam.”– John ColemanJohn Coleman

MIT MeteorologistMIT Meteorologist

““(The IPCC) has decided (The IPCC) has decided that they have to that they have to convince other people convince other people that since no scientist that since no scientist disagrees you shouldn’t disagrees you shouldn’t disagree either. disagree either. Whenever you hear that Whenever you hear that in science, it’s pure in science, it’s pure propaganda.”propaganda.”– Prof. Richard LindzenProf. Richard Lindzen

Geodynamics Geodynamics ProfessorProfessor

““In my position, I can hardly find In my position, I can hardly find anyone who would subscribe to anyone who would subscribe to the IPCC scenario.”the IPCC scenario.”– Prof. Nils-Axel MProf. Nils-Axel Mörner,örner,

Dept. of PaleogeophysicsDept. of Paleogeophysics

and Geodynamics,and Geodynamics,

Stockholm UniversityStockholm University

Harvard AstrophysicistHarvard Astrophysicist

““The question is why are flawed The question is why are flawed models used as a basis for models used as a basis for enormously expensive policy enormously expensive policy decisions, far-reaching policy decisions, far-reaching policy decisions. They shouldn’t be.”decisions. They shouldn’t be.”– Dr. Sallie Baliunas,Dr. Sallie Baliunas,

Astrophysics,Astrophysics,

Harvard UniversityHarvard University

World Climate ExpertWorld Climate Expert

““The science we’re being told by The science we’re being told by the IPCC is really incorrect the IPCC is really incorrect science. Somehow the IPCC has science. Somehow the IPCC has become a global warming Bible, if become a global warming Bible, if you will. You can’t disagree.”you will. You can’t disagree.”– Dr. David LeGatesDr. David LeGates

Center for Climatic ResearchCenter for Climatic Research

University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware

Fact #14Fact #14

Your observations are validYour observations are valid Facts surround usFacts surround us

– Deep freeze over US and southern Asia Deep freeze over US and southern Asia set records the past few Wintersset records the past few Winters

– Much of citrus crop in California and Much of citrus crop in California and Florida was destroyed by iceFlorida was destroyed by ice

– Record lows have been observed world-Record lows have been observed world-wide in the last few yearswide in the last few years

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/11/minnesota.cold.ap/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/news/April7thwinterwx.html

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/02/brrrr-260-dead-in-south-asia-pakistan.html

Part 3Part 3

Where does this leave us?Where does this leave us?

So it’s wrong…so So it’s wrong…so what?what? Trillions of dollars, and billions of hours Trillions of dollars, and billions of hours

of labor and effort are being squanderedof labor and effort are being squandered This money and effort could be used forThis money and effort could be used for

– Reducing Reducing realreal pollutants pollutants– Fighting povertyFighting poverty– Treating AIDS and malariaTreating AIDS and malaria– Providing adequate drinking water and Providing adequate drinking water and

medical treatmentmedical treatment Public policy which attempts to correct Public policy which attempts to correct

this non-existent problem could literally this non-existent problem could literally cause millions of people to diecause millions of people to die

Social ReactionSocial Reaction

Cognitive dissonanceCognitive dissonance Stages of reaction:Stages of reaction: 1. Anger1. Anger 2. Bigotry2. Bigotry 3. Resentment3. Resentment 4. Frustration4. Frustration 5. Re-evaluation5. Re-evaluation 6. Self-education6. Self-education 7. Activism7. Activism

Concluding Points Concluding Points

1. Time is the best friend of the truth1. Time is the best friend of the truth 2. No cause is served well by misinformation2. No cause is served well by misinformation 3. Do not throw out the baby with the 3. Do not throw out the baby with the

bathwater:bathwater:– The environment is importantThe environment is important– Climate science is important, useful, and Climate science is important, useful, and

fascinatingfascinating– Global Warming claims are fraudulentGlobal Warming claims are fraudulent– COCO22 is a political tool, not a pollutant is a political tool, not a pollutant

There are many worthy causes. Choose There are many worthy causes. Choose one, research it, and take it up, and make a one, research it, and take it up, and make a realreal difference difference

World Malaria Day, April World Malaria Day, April 2525

Malaria kills more Malaria kills more than 1 million than 1 million innocent lives each innocent lives each yearyear

A child dies every 30 A child dies every 30 seconds from malariaseconds from malaria

It is preventable and It is preventable and treatabletreatable

http://www.worldvision.org/donate.nsf/child/sg_march08_pharm?Open&campaign=1038070&cmp=EMC-1038070&ppi=30433669

Next Monday’s TalkNext Monday’s Talk

““Global Warming Cracked Open: Global Warming Cracked Open: A Peek Inside”A Peek Inside”

7pm, here in this room7pm, here in this room Talk will address:Talk will address:

– Who would want us to believe this Who would want us to believe this and why?and why?

– Who benefits from global warming?Who benefits from global warming?– What are some of the motivations What are some of the motivations

and tactics used to push this story?and tactics used to push this story?

Thank YouThank You

Questions?Questions?