global warming and forest fires risk
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate change and forestClimate change and forest
fires riskfires riskJohann G. Goldammer and Nikola Nikolov
UNISDR Global Wildland Fire
NetworkGLOBAL FIRE MONITORING CENTRE (GFMC)
European and Mediterranean Workshop
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER-RELATED AND MARINE RISKS26-27 October 2009
Murcia (Spain)
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http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de
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“Global warming”
“Climate change”
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In order to work out what kind of action should be taken on global warming, theUnited Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), created aforecast on what the climate conditions will be like by the end of the century. This
forecast was called the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).
SRES Temperature forecasts
Case Temperature increase Temperature increase
Best estimate to 2100 Likely range to 2100
B1 scenario +1.8 +1.1 – 2.9A1T scenario +2.4 +1.4 – 3.8
B2 scenario +2.4 +1.4 – 3.8
A1B scenario +2.8 +1.7 – 4.4
A2 scenario +3.4 +2.0 – 5.4A1FI scenario +4.0 +2.4 – 6.4
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Departures in temperature in °C (from the 1990 valu e)
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Global Warming Impacts
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Impact from global warming onthe occurrence of forest fires in
Poland
Ryszard Szczygieł, Barbara Ubysz, Józef Piwnicki
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ROME - Climate change is making forest fires around the world
bigger and more intense, increasing the threat to people and the
environment and costing countries millions in damage and
firefighting expenses, the United Nations reports.
FAO global assessment of forest fires-2005
Mediterranean countries also said that warmer temperatures andreduced rainfall in summer — both associated with climate change —would increase the risk of fires in the region and beyond.
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North American researchers reported that the incidence
and severity of fires "will increase dramatically" with globalwarming.
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Climate Change Impacts on the United StatesThe Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
Overview: AlaskaBy the National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research ProgramPublished in 2000
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Increasing number of WILDFIRE ACRES BURNED
(State, Tribal, Federal Lands 1960-2008)
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MORE LARGE FIRES
FEDERAL LARGE WILDFIRES 1979-2008
1979-1988 1989-1998 1999-2008
250
200
150
100
50
0
50-100k Acres
100-250k Acres
Over 250k Acres
Total of all fires
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Over the past several decades, the area of Canadian borealforest affected by fire and insects has doubled. Although there arecomplex factors involved, the greatest increases so far have been inthe regions of greatest warming. Continued warming will produce
greater seasonal contrasts which, combined with an expected 44%
increase in lightning strikes, is expected to increase the area burnedby 78% in the next 50 years.
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Doug Woolford
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Fire regimes are determined by four factors: intensity (how severe
fires are), frequency (how often fires occur), season (the time of the year firesoccur) and scale (how extensive each fire is and the patchiness of the burnt
and unburnt mosaic).
Fire regime
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“Professor Balzter said "Last century a typical forest in Siberia hadabout 100 years after a fire to recover before it burned again. Butnew observations by Russian scientist Dr Kharuk have shown thatfire now returns more frequently, about every 65 years. At the same
time annual temperatures in Siberia have risen by almost twodegrees Celsius, about twice as fast as the global average. Andsince 1990 the warming of Siberia has become even faster thanbefore." “
Climate Change Threatens Siberian ForestsScienceDaily (Aug. 5, 2007)
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Trans-Baikal Region (SE Russia)
May 2003
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8 May 2003
Smoke from fires in the Transbaikal Region,extending to Sakhalin, Japan, Alaska and Europe
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11 March 2008
Smoke from fires in the Transbaikal Region,
extending to Sakhalin, Japan and Alaska
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Burnt area in the World
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Impact of the forest fires :• Degradation
•
Deforestation• Soil erosion
• Appearance of insects
• Decrease of biodiversity
• Human health
• Economy• Carbon’s (CO2,CO) and other gases
emission
Soil water
regime andfloods
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1954 1954 1964 1964
20012001
20012001
land-use change
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Conclusion
Climate change will increase
the risk of fires in the future !
UNISDR Global Wildland Fire
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Thank you very muchfor the attention !
http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de
UNISDR Global Wildland FireNetwork
GLOBAL FIRE MONITORING CENTRE (GFMC)