Global Urban Population at Risk?

100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 1000-2000 >20000

5

10

15

20

25

Population, in 1000's

Number of Cities

Total Population at Risk — 41 147 000(1990 Estimates)

Cities of >100,000 Population Near Potentially Active Volcanoes

Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards

“Understanding Volcanic Hazards”—Video produced by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior

•Ash fall•Pyroclastic (ash) flows•Lava Flows•Lahars (volcanic mudflows)

•Earthquakes•Tsunamis•Volcanic Gases

Manila, Philippines

Population, metro area—10 million

Two caldera complexes, many smaller volcanoes

Last large-scale eruption—Taal, 5380 years ago

Last smaller eruption—Taal, 1977 AD

PhiVolcs

Manila, Philippines

Potential risks from: Ash fall Pyroclastic (ash) flows Gases Lava flows (low

probability)

Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from

past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans

(near Taal, but not Manila) Education (near Taal),

including the public and students

Auckland, New Zealand

•Population— ~1 million

•Located in a 360 km2 volcanic field; scoria cones and tuff rings

•49 volcanoes erupted during the last 140,000 years

•Last eruption about 1000 years ago

Kermode, 1992

Auckland, New Zealand

Potential risks from: Ash fall; ballistic ejecta Pyroclastic surges Gases Lava flows Potential hazards of pyroclastic

flows from distant calderas

Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from

past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans;

evacuation and infrastructure protection

Education including the public and students

Quito, Ecuador

Population—1.1 million Located below Guagua

Pichincha, a large composite cone (stratovolcano)

12 eruption periods since 1533 AD.

Erupting now (since October, 1999)M. Hall

El Comercio

Quito, Ecuador

Potential risks from: Ash fall; ballistic ejecta Pyroclastic flows Mudflows (lahars) Gases

Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from

past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans;

evacuation, cleanup Education including the

public and students Especially good reporting on

eruptions in the newspapers

Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA Population, metro Seattle and

Tacoma—3.4 million Mount Rainier, large

composite cone (strato-volcano) east of the cities

Over the last several thousand years, lahars (mudflows) have reached the lowlands every 500-1000 years

Minimal risk from Mt. Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes (northeast of Seattle)

USGS, 1997

Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA

Potential risks from: Lahars (mudflows) along

valleys radiating from Mt. Rainier

Minimal risk from ash fall; fallout usually to the east

Response and Planning Mapping and dating of deposits

from past eruptions Geophysical monitoring,

especially seismic detection of collapse and flow monitors along valleys

Emergency response plans for communities along valleys; warning systems

Education—students and public

Napoli, Italy

Orsi et al., 1998

US Army, 1944

Napoli, Italy Population, metro area—

~3 million Vesuvius; frequent

historic eruptions; last eruption 1944 AD

Phlegrean Fields; two calderas (last large eruption 12,000 years ago); multiple smaller scoria cones and tuff rings (last eruption-1538 AD); restless calderas

Il Mattino, 1906

Napoli, Italy

Potential risks from: Earthquakes, uplift and

subsidence Ash fall and pumice fall Pyroclastic surges and

flows Lava Flows Gases Panic

Response and Planning Mapping and dating of deposits

from past eruptions; tectonic framework

Geophysical monitoring— Seismic, GPS, Gases, Tilt, Temperature variation, etc.

Emergency response plans with Civil Defense, City, Province

Education—students and public; museums; publications; public lectures and TV presentations

Potential Problems Common to All Volcano Cities

1. Controllingpanic

6. Effects onsurfacetransportation

11. Stability ofbuildings,especially roofs

2. Identifiedevacuation routes

7. Effects on airtransport

12. Effects onsewage andsewage treatment

3. Handlingrefugees

8. Effects onelectricalinfrastructure

13. Need for crisisteams andcooperation by themedia

4. Public Health 9. Effects oncommunications

14. A well-educated publicwith regard tovolcanic hazards

5. Public Security 10. Effects onwater supply

15. Effectivecommunication ofthe state of thecrisis

Levels of Preparation and Understanding

1 2 3 4

• No analysisof volcanicrisk

• Minimal geo-physical andgeological dataand maps

• Qualitative,"best guess"idea of volcanicrisk

• Integratedgeophysicalmonitoring

• GIS- andphysicalprocess-basedhazard maps

• Collaborationwith civildefense, cityplanners, infra-structureauthorities

• Publiceducation

• Quantitativerisk analysis

• Integrateddata sets for"real-time"scenariosimulations(training,planning, andmitigation) andvulnerabilityestimates

1 2 3 4

Estimated "Levels of Preparation" in 59 "Volcano Cities"Having Populations of >100 000

5 cities

1 city

33 cities

8 cities

9 cities

3 cities

NONE

Levels of Preparation and Understanding

1 2 3 4

• No analysisof volcanicrisk

• Minimal geo-physical andgeological dataand maps

• Qualitative,"best guess"idea of volcanicrisk

• Integratedgeophysicalmonitoring

• GIS- andphysicalprocess-basedhazard maps

• Collaborationwith civildefense, cityplanners, infra-structureauthorities

• Publiceducation

• Quantitativerisk analysis

• Integrateddata sets for"real-time"scenariosimulations(training,planning, andmitigation) andvulnerabilityestimates

The Goal for all “Volcano Cities” during the 21st Century

IDNDR—IAVCEI Decade VolcanoProjects-"Reducing Volcanic Disasters”

Leader—Chris Newhall Decade Volcanoes Near Cities: Colima, Mexico (Colima) Merapi, Indonesia (Yogyakarta) Mount Rainier, USA (Seattle-Tacoma) Santa Maria, Guatemala (Quezaltenango) Taal, Philippines (Manila, Batangas) Sakurajima, Japan (Kagoshima City) Vesuvius, Italy (Napoli) Galeras, Colombia (Pasto) Teide, Spain (Santa Cruz de Tenerife) Avachinsky-Koriaksky, Russia (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky

Disciplines Represented at “Cities on Volcanoes” Workshops

Volcanology Geographic Information

Systems Public Health Remote Sensing Risk Analysis Civil Engineering Hydrology Sociology & Psychology

Civil Defense City Management City Planning Education The Media (Science

Reporters) City Officials Insurance Industry Infrastructure management

“Cities on Volcanoes-Roma/Napoli, Auckland, and Hilo

What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century?

Follow the examples for integrated programs of observation, planning and education established in several of the world’s “volcano cities.” Use the potential for Geographic-Information System-based integrated analysis, with heavy use of visualization to present results.

Continue to raise the level of awareness of volcanic risk. Use all available modern educational tools, including the internet. Integrate disaster awareness into the culture (e.g., a “national disaster day”). Annual training of civil defense officials with “virtual reality” scenarios that require real-time responses.

What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century? (continued)

Earth scientists working for the cities, with integrated teams, which include environmental scientists, engineers, planners, and social scientists to prepare science- and culture-based emergency response plans. Frequent workshops and meetings like “Cities on Volcanoes.”

Provide the scientific basis for cost-benefit analyses of the value of mitigation and disaster education to decision-makers. Get the politicians and business people involved.

Who pays for urban disaster mitigation in the “volcano cities?” Traditional support

The Nation The State National and international disaster relief organizations

and NGO’s (always comes after an eruption; very little goes toward mitigation)

The insurance industry (again, after the eruption)

Non-traditional support The insurance industry (great interest in mitigation and

threat reduction) The utilities (infrastructure)—mitigation, hardening

facilities

Volcanoes, integrated science, and cities in the 21st century—Suggestions for Professional Geoscience Associations “GeoRisk” program for the International Unions of Geodesy

and Geophysics and Geological Sciences 2000-2010—the proposed “Decade of Geosciences in the

Cities” with each nation picking a “decade city” for integrated scientific study

Urban geoscience curricula need to be encouraged at universities

Communicate the importance of geosciences to mayors, city planners and engineers

We (geoscientists) need to “come out of the woods” and into the cities