global trends relevant for european environment

AnitaPircVelkavrh,24Octobre1016,Vienna,PLACARDforesightworkshop

GlobaltrendsrelevantforEuropeanenvironment

AnitaPircVelkavrhForesightandsustainabilitygroupIntegratedassessmentprogramme

PLACARD Foresight workshop 24-25 October 2016

EEA

Global megatrends & European environment

Challenges Opportunities Responses

EEA products on CC

vulnerability, adaptation

The European Environment Agency:

-  is established by EEC regulation

- is an independent information provider

- is an analyst and assessor

- is building bridges between science and policy

- is co-ordinating network (Eionet)

… to support policy processes and inform the public

About the European Environment Agency

Copenhagen, Denmark

Update

Background analysis


EEA, Foresight and sustainability group


2050

2050

Technological acceleration

Continued economic grow

th? +

43%EU: 27% pop > 65 y. Afr: 50% pop < 20y.

67% World pop live in cities

25%Global

disease burden pattern

opportunities to reduce

humanity’s impact on

environment

risks

+300%

2050

OECD Europe share of global GDP

2000

2050

42%

77%

Competition for resources Pressure on ecosystems Increasing env. pollution

Increasing impacts to cc

Disease and death from env. causes

Polarisation

Urbanisation

SOER2015 /

Setting the scene: global megatrends definition

Global megatrends are large-scale, high impact and often interdependent trends visible today that are expected to extend over the decades, changing slowly and exerting considerable force that will influence a wide array of areas including social, technologic, economic, environmental and political dimensions (in Europe until 2050).

EEA, 2007

long term – high probability – high impact

GMT1:DivergingglobalpopulaAontrends

The world population may rise beyond 9.6 billion by 2050, despite the rate of growth slowing. Most of the increase will occur in developing-world urban areas, particularly slums and megacities.

43%

...growthoftheglobalpopulaAonby2050

SOER2015 / Global megatrends /

The global population is expected to grow 43% by 2050, with Africa’s rising especially fast

Source: UN World population prospects: The 2012 revision. Unequal development is likely to increase migration. Europe could face pressure for and from immigration.



Aging and shifting wealth of human capital

Growing and younger populations in the developing world, the global growth of an affluent middle class, and aging populations in developed countries will impact resource use and the environment.



GMT 2: Towards a more urban world

Urban and rural population in developed and less developed world regions, 1950–2050

Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision

Urban areas in developing countries will absorb most of the global population increase,

67%

…oftheworldpopulaAonwillliveinciLesby2050


Increasing consumption by middle class An increasingly urban world will probably mean spiralling consumption and greater affluence for many. But it also means greater poverty for the urban underprivileged. Poor urban living conditions and associated environmental and heath risks could impact all areas of the world, including Europe.

GMT 2: Towards a more urban world


Source: IHME Global health data exchange database, 2014; WHO Global health estimates, 2014.

Source: OECD 2012.

Non-communicable diseases (e.g. obesity) now outweigh communicable diseases (e.g. malaria) The threat of global pandemics continues.

...oftheglobalburdenofdiseaseanddeathscanbeaIributedtoenvironmentalcauses(mostlyurbanairpolluAon,PM,ozone)

25%

GMT 3: Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics


The nutrition transition Health inequalities persists between regions, countries and within countries.

GMT 3: Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics


Source: OECD, 2014. Environment-related patent applications to the European Patent Office, 1980–2010

The unprecedented pace of technological change provides opportunities to reduce humanity’s impact on the environment and reliance on non-renewable natural resources, while improving lifestyles, stimulating innovation and green growth. Innovation, however, brings also risks, which could be minimised with policies.

GMT 4: Technological innovation is rapid and accelerating, including in the field of green technology


World economic output has increased 25-fold since 1900

Source: OECD Long-term Baseline Projections 2014.

300%Intheperiod2010-2050,globalGDPisexpectedtogrowby…

butgrowthratesareslowingascountriesbecomemoreprosperous

GMT 5: Continued economic growth?


Source: OECD Long-term Baseline Projections 2014

Regional composition of global GDP, 2000–2050

Driven by rapid structural change, large and rapidly growing working-age populations and trade liberalisation, emerging economies are increasing their significance.

OECD share of global GDP

2000 2050

42% 77%

GMT 6: An increasingly multipolar world


World materials use has grown 10-fold since 1900 and may double again by 2030

The geographic concentration of some reserves creates supply risks.

Source: European Commission 2014.

Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, 2010–2012

Imports from outside the EU accounted for 58 % of EU-27 consumption of metal ores and products in 2011 and 79 % of fossil fuels.

GMT 7: Intensified global competition for resources


Demand for meat, water and bioenergy is driving global competition for land resources

Source: Rulli et al., 2013.

GMT 8: Growing pressures on ecosystems

Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009


GMT 9: Increasingly severe consequences of climate change

•  Recent changes in the global climate are unprecedented over millennia and will continue.

•  Climate change is expected increasingly to threaten natural ecosystems and biodiversity, slow economic growth, erode global food security, harm human health and increase inequality.

•  The risks of pervasive and irreversible impacts are expected to increase. They could, however, be reduced by further emissions abatement and adaptation measures, building on past actions in Europe and internationally.

•  Key risks for Europe include flood events, droughts and other weather extremes that damage ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as infrastructure and human well-being.

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•  Globally, levels of air pollution and releases of nutrients from agriculture and wastewater remain high, causing acidification and eutrophication in ecosystems, and losses in agricultural yield.

•  In the coming decades, overall pollution levels are projected to increase strongly, particularly in Asia.

•  Although Europe’s pollutant releases are expected to continue declining, European ecosystems and citizens are likely to be affected by developments in other regions.

•  Despite a fall in air pollutant emissions there has not been an equivalent improvement in air quality across Europe, partly as a result of the transboundary transport of air pollutants.

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GMT 10: Increasing environmental pollution

Historical trend in global agricultural demand for industrial nitrogen fertiliser, 1910–2008; and drivers of the projected changes in demand in 2100.

Source: Winiwarter et al

Globalnitrogendemand

20002100

200 ? million tonnes

90 millio

n tonne

s

GMT 10 Increasing environmental pollution


Source: Mitchel, 2014.

Number of international environmental agreements, 1950s-2000s

GMT 11: Increase of the role of non-state actors and proliferation of international environmental agreements

Global challenges: Food ( + 70% meat by 2050)

Good water availability Energy (+30-40% in 20 years)

Raw materials (+100% by 2030) Ecosystem depletion (10-40% loss by 2050)

WEF Global Risks 2016 report

Challenges and opportunities

Impact Likelihoodfailure of climate change mitigation and adaptation

large-scale

weapons of mass destruction,

interstate conflict with regional consequences

water crises extreme weather eventslarge-scale failure of climate change mitigation and

adaptationsevere energy price shock (increase or decrease)

major natural catastrophes.

SOER2015 / Global megatrends / ©

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Obs

erva

tory

Global megatrends strongly impact Europe’s ability to meet its basic resource needs:

•  Food

•  Water

•  Energy

•  Materials

•  Ecosystems and their services

Europe has opportunities through different response options to shape and adapt to global megatrends

Impacts of GMTs - Europe

We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation and suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be. John Holdren (Obama’s Science Advisor)

land

Source: UNEP 2012 - GEO5 ‘good life’

Within environmental limits

« Living well…within the ecological limits of our planet« THE DOUBLE CHALLANGE

Sustainability transition

•  Short term gains and growing systemic risk •  Need to foster transitions

SOER 2015 Synthesis report

•  Challenges for European environment governance arise from increasingly globalised drivers, trends and impacts.

European Environment: State and outlook 2015 CONCLUSIONS

SystemicchallengesrequiresystemicsoluAonsSecond, because the co-evolution of technological and societal systems creates lock-ins, feedbacks and trade-offs, implying the need for a systemic perspective.

Source: EEA

ENVIRONMENTALPOLICIES

ENVIRONMENT

EEA report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability (end 2016)

•  Previous reports: 2004, 2008 and 2012

•  Content:

•  Assessing impacts of past and future climate change •  Climate impacts on socio-economic sectors, ecosystems,

and health •  Vulnerability to climate change

Update and extension of the 2012 EEA report, to be published end 2016

European vulnerability to climate change impacts that occur outside Europe

EEAassessmentreport‘LinksbetweenCCAandDRR’(duemid2017)

•  DRRdoesnotalwaysconsiderfuture

changesinextremeevents.•  DRRincludesalsoothernon-climate

relatedhazards.•  CCAaddressesclimatechangeand

changesinextremeevents,butfocusesmainlyonprevenAonandprotecAon,whileDRRfocusesonfullcycle.

•  RiskassessmentsarecommonforbothCCAandDRR.

31

Thank you

A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and of opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the long-term vision of the 7th EAP.

SOER 2015 Synthesis report

SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends

11 briefings

Global megatrends

25 briefings

European briefings

9 briefings

Cross-country comparisons

39+3 briefings

Countries and regions

European Environment: State and outlook 2015

MainobjecLves2017EEAreportCCA/DRR

•  TofacilitateabeIerawarenessandcommunicaLon

•  ToexplorepotenAalsynergiesbetweenDRRandCCA–(knowledgebase,policydevelopmentsandimplementaAon)

•  TodescribetrendsandprojecLonsofselectedextremes

•  Todescribeeconomiclossesfromweatherandclimaterelateddisasters(includingdamagecosts,usingMunichRedata)

•  ToaddresscasestudiesofsuccessfulsoluAonandgoodpracAces

Outlineof2017EEAreportCCA/DRR

Chapter1:IntroducLonChapter2:OverviewofthepoliciesandpracLcesChapter3:Assessmentofweatherandclimaterelatedextremeevents(hazards)inEurope(basedonpreviousEEAreports)Chapter4:ImpactsandrisksofhazardsondifferentsectorsinEurope(humanhealth,ecosystems,andsocio-economicsectors)

Chapter5:Fillingthegaps-successfulcasesandsoluLonsChapter6:OpportuniLestobe_erintegrateCCAandDRRinpolicyandpracLce

EEA products and services on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation 2014-2016

All supported by a European Topic Centre, see: http://cca.eionet.europa.eu/

2014

2014

2015

2015

Upcoming assessment reports

•  2016 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability

•  2017 Linkages between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

2016


Increasing Relevance of Foresight

•  EU’s Foresight use has grown significantly in the past 20 years

•  Used across different domains and sectors e.g.

–  To guide policymaking, to develop strategies,

–  To explore new markets, products and services,

–  To raise general public awareness of developments to influence future etc.

•  Main EU institutions: EEA/Eionet, DG RTD, Joint Research Centre, European Parliament, European political strategy center

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Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.

Soren Kierkegaard 1813 - 1855