global trends in supporting ipv6 services and applications

© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PUBLICIPv6 Forum BeijingApril 2007 1

Global Trends inSupporting IPv6Services andApplications

Fred BakerCisco FellowChair, IPv6 Operations Working Group, IETF

© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicIPv6 Forum Beijing 2

An interesting year

Vista deploymentLinux, MacOSX, Windows Server, and other implementationsalready deployed

Discussions changing in technical fora

US Government plan to shift becoming more stable

European Commission technology development/promotionreorganized

IPv6 deployment has been reduced to practice for standardnetworks

IPv6 research continues in mobility, testing, and applications.

Support continues for education and operator discussions


Changing conversations

Used to be:“Do we need IPv6? Why worry about it?”

“But the US isn’t deploying!”

Now I hear:“Why is my ping time longer?” …

… “Because you get different routing with IPv6”

… “Actually, mine is shorter.”

ISP perspectives“What’s the point?” and “Where’s the money?” has shifted toquiet deployment in trial networks and some backbones


Scalability question: Addressing and Routing

An important question that the technical community isaddressing relates to scaling factors

Observation:IPv6 address very much like the IPv4 address in concept

IPv6 routing protocols and algorithms common with IPv4

IPv6 routing and and addressing can rationally be expected toscale much like IPv4 - which is not a good prognosis

IETF community now revisiting question of naming vsaddressing - supposedly settled a decade ago

“As IPv6 deploys, we should make sure we improvemultihoming, Security Associations, and the ability to managethe global route table”


A run on the bank

Also, as others have no doubt noted…Internet Protocol Journal Article mid-2005

http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ipj_8-3/ipv4.html

JPNIC Analysis late 2005http://www.nic.ad.jp/en/research/IPv4exhaustion_trans-pub.pdf

Since then:There has been a run on the RIRs to obtain IPv4address space before it runs outVarious customers and ISP associations discussingthe facts of that matter


A Few Relevant Statistics


NREN IPv6 traffic continues to grow

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200

7


NREN IPv6 Utilization

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200

7


IPv4 address allocations by /8

IANA Allocations to RIR's

Sliding-window 24 month average

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

2.25

2.5

2.75

3

Jan-95

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

19.1% remaining19.1% remaining

IANA allocated 37 /8’s between Jan. 1, 2004 and Jan. 16, 2007

• Consumption is accelerating despiteincreasingly intense conservation efforts.

• Growth is occurring in all regionsWhile growth as seen in the routing system isstrongest in Asia, the allocation growth isstrongest in Europe.

Projection based on IANA* data from 2000


Update to: http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ipj_8-3/ipj_8-3.pdfExhaustion of the central IANA pool - orangeExhaustion of the collective RIR pools - magentaRelative distribution rates between the RIRsTime depth of collective RIR pools on pub date - white (historically 24 months) Tony Hain


So what does thathave to do with theprice of tea in China?


“…the history of major changes that havebeen successful is one of changesimplemented at the last minute.”

Mark Handleyhttp://www.cs.ucl.ac.uk/staff/M.Handley/papers/only-just-works.pdf


Implications of pool exhaustion

Despite the wide-scale deployment of NAT, the consumption of theIPv4 pool continues at an accelerating rate.

When IANA runs out, existing IPv4 networks still work.The only ones that will be immediately impacted are the RIRs whenthey come back for more space.

When any RIR runs out, existing IPv4 networks still work.The only ones that will be immediately impacted are theLIR/ISP/Enterprise’s when they come back for more space.

When the LIR/ISP runs out, existing IPv4 networks still work.The only ones that will be immediately impacted are the people lookingfor more or new space.

Any specific network will only need IPv6 when they attempt to talkto someone that was unable to acquire enough IPv4 space, orattempt to expand or add new applications and find themselvesunable to get enough IPv4 space.


How much will you pay tocontinue growing with IPv4 ???

As the pool for IPv4 addresses runs dry, a greymarket economy will emerge.

A lease / buy decision will be based on how longcustomers will take to switch to using IPv6enabled applications.

Deploying IPv6 now, before strong demand, willsimplify support issues that arise and help manageintroduction of IPv6 applications.


Microsoft OS & Apps

It will be difficult to quantify actual use of IPv6 in the earlystages because much of the traffic will be tunneled overIPv4, and most network mangers are not looking for it.

Estimates in some networks now running 12% IPv6 but hiddenin tunnels

The way to stop the tunneling behavior is to turn on nativeIPv6 routing in the infrastructure.

Vista turns on IPv6 by default & prefers it before IPv4(even if it has to tunnel over IPv4 to make IPv6 work)

Vista PRNP – distributed hash table naming service(removes dependency on DNS record deployment)

Windows Collaboration - IPv6-only App (in the box)

Office 12 - All IPv6 enabled


Issues facing the network manager

Staff training – reducing perceived service levelAwareness – OS stack will tunnel unless there is native service

Network management tools – scripts and commercialproducts ignoring the IPv6 deployment

Traffic patterns – old wan traffic models dominated byclient/server apps, new by peer-to-peer collaboration tools

Multi-homing – Global address allocation policy for enterprisedeployments

Timing – deployment being forced in short order by a partnerinteraction rather than planned and orderly over time

Applications – not providing IPv6 support before IPv4 is missingfrom part of the network or a partner


“… in many ways the Internet only just works.The number of ways in which it only justworks seems to be increasing with time, asnon-critical problems build.

The main question is whether it will takefailures to cause these problems to beaddressed, or whether they can start to beaddressed before they need to be fixed in anill co-ordinated last-minute rush.”

© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17

Mark Handleyhttp://www.cs.ucl.ac.uk/staff/M.Handley/papers/only-just-works.pdf


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global trends in supporting ipv6 services and applications

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