global trends and nordic labour markets - bhm
TRANSCRIPT
Global Trends and Nordic Labour Markets Scenarios for University Graduates
Christian Lyhne Ibsen, FAOS at University of Copenhagen
Assistant professor, PhD
Reykjavík, November 2016
Program
About the Nordic Model
Four major trends
1. Transition to wage moderation and flexibility
2. Precarious work in the knowledge economy
3. Organisation of workers and employers
4. Socio-economic equality
Scenarios and Discussion
Nordic success… partly based on collectivist industrialrelations
OECD, 1990 (grøn) og 2010 (lilla)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
ISL
FIN
DN
K
SWE
NO
R
BEL
LUX
ITA
IRL
OEC
D
AU
T
CA
N
GB
R
GR
C
NLD
PR
T
DEU
AU
S
CH
E
ESP
MEX
PO
L
USA
KO
R
FRA
TUR
Fagforeningernes organisationsgrad 1990, 2010
Background for Nordic Model
• Collective agreements the main regulatory device for terms and conditions of employment
• High organisational density
• Coordination between industrial relations, welfare state and macro-economic policies
• High degree of socio-economic equality and competitiveness
Trend 1: Transition to wage moderation and flexibility
Trilemma for Nordic model
Full Employment
Nordic model survived…
Balance between wage-moderation, flexibility and self-regulation secured (Finland pending…)
Wage-moderation and flexibility has not (yet) erodedsocio-economic equality
Trade unions and employers still strong organisations
State has been facilitative (Common Declaration, National Mediation Office, TUPO and Solidarity-Inivitative)
Welfare state and unemployment benefit supports collective bargaining
Coordination: The Danish Example
1. Manufacturing
norm
2. Federate level bargaining
3.a Yes in union ballot. DA ratifies
3.b Bargaining breakdown
4. Mediation
5.a Yes in union ballot. DA ratifies
Agreement in line with norm
5.b Breakdown and
concatenatedmediationproposal
6.a Yes in union ballot. DA ratifies
Agreement in line with norm
6.b No in ballot
cross-sectorstrike
7.a Agreement
in accordancewith power
relation
7.b Governmentintervention
High degree of coordination around labour cost normBut also flexibility in wage agreements through local bargainingRequires local bargaining capability and responsibility
Wage Moderation? Developments in Unit Labour Costs(entire economy, 1990-2012)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Tyskland Finland Sverige Danmark Italien UK Norge Island
1990-94
1995-99
2000-08
2009-12
Source: OECD.stat
Trend 2: Precarious work in the knowledgeeconomy
Knowledge economy
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Labor force with tertiary education (% of total)
DNK
FIN
ISL
NOR
SWE
CAN
Source: World Bank
Precarious work and Non Standard work
Source: EuroFound
Precarious work and Non Standard work
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Temporary employees with tertiary education (index=2000)
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Iceland
Norway
Source: Eurostat
Precarious work and Non Standard work
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Part-time employees with tertiary education (index=2001)
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Iceland
Norway
Source: Eurostat
Challenges for academic self-employed/free-lancers
Source: Dansk Magisterforening 2014
Dualization: A question of cohorts?
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Youth unemployment, 20-29 years with tertiary education
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Source: Eurostat
Iceland: 7.8 in 2011
• Exclusion• Not representing atypical workers to avoid the existence of atypical work altogether
• Subordination• Representing atypical workers primarily to avoid that they undercut typical workers
• Inclusion• Representing atypical workers interest by getting them at par standards
• Engagement• Representing atypical workers and letting their interests affect the organisation of trade
union (leadership, strategy etc.)
Source: Heery 2003
Trade union strategies for atypical workers
Trend 3: Organisation of workers and employers
Nordic Unions still strong, but…
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Denmark
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Sweden
Source: OECD
Relationship between trade unions, employerorganisations and union density
Source: OECD and national statistics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Iceland
Employer density
Bargaining Coverage
Union Density
Will employers still dance?
Or need for statutoryextensions or regulation?
Academic organisations are strong in Nordics
0102030405060708090
100
1994
1997
2008
Trend 4: Socio-economic inequality
Falling wage share
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Compensation per employee as percentage of GDP at market pricesper person employed (Denmark)
Yearly 5-year av.
Development in Wage Ratios (D9/D1 og D5/D1 in selected countries mid-1990 and 2011)
2,31 2,34
2,58
2,81 2,86
2.972,97
3,34
1,39
1,591,48
1,67 1,621.50
1,50 1,87
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
SE NOR FIN DK NLD FR GER UK
D9/D1 MID1990s
D9/D1 2011
D5/D1 mid-1990s
D5/D1 2011
Source: OECD
Wage ratio: High-tech manufacturing vs. low-techservices 1980-2007
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Tyskland
Danmark
Finland
Sverige
Source: EU KLEMS
Wage premium for education
Source: E. A. Hanushek, et al. 2013
Individual bargaining can makesense for academics
Employers use salary for recruitment and retention (human capital theory)
Some benefits better colletive: leave, education, sick pay, pension
Individual bargaining higher pay-off but also more risky (womenlag behind!)
Scenarios for University Graduates
‘Business as usual’ – Still enough demand for graduates
Knowledge economy creates sufficient jobs
Reforms of ‘Business as usual’ – Tighter integration of supply of skills with labour market demands
Knowledge economy creates new types of jobs and universities have to follow
Fundamental change – Dualization
Knowledge economy does not create enough demand to match supply of graduates
• Increased dualization of labour market between insiders and outsiders• Drop in collective bargaining coverage means less parental leave, occupational pension etc.
• Outsourcing of medium to high cognitive task – nothing is sacred anymore?
• Increased use of atypical employment; project society, platform economy, etc.
• Representational Stretch! Work-life satisfaction and stress becoming more and more salient for some workers vis-à-vis ‘traditional’ issues like wage and working time for other works
• Individualization of terms and conditions requires bargaining power and skills –unions should help!
• Women seem to be systematically disadvantaged by individualized bargaining
Dualization of ‘Academic’ labour market
Discussion of Scenarios
What is the status of university educated workers and how are their options to get jobs just after university graduation?
How can gaps between typical and atypical workers be addressed?
How do trade unions see themselves and their role in the labor market of the future?
How has the development of salaries/wages been for workers with higher education? Too high, too low?
Discussion of Scenarios
How do we generate trust between the social partners and the government to be able to establish a well-functioning labour market model in Iceland?
What kind of institutional setup should be put in place?
Are/should wage increases in collective agreements be tied to a political strategy?
How are real wage increases and flexibility secured in collective agreements?
Tak for opmærksomheden!