Global Tourism Trends and

Prospects for 2002

Presentation by

Andrei Chlevkov,

Assistant to WTO Regional Representative

for Europe

Prague, Czech Republic, 6th February 2002

MICE Benefits and Costs

+ High level of spending by delegates

+ Increased employment

+ Tax revenues

+ Redevelopment of depressed areas

+ Improving the image

- High development and operating costs- Infrastructure cost- Investment alternatives- Possible local price increases

Worldwide Export Earnings, 1999

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Tourism

Automotive products

Chemicals

Food

Fuels

Computer and office equipment

Textiles and clothing

Telecommunications equipment

Mining products other than fuels

Iron and steel

US$ billion

689697650,2

1999 2000 2001

World results, 2001

Growth rate

00/99: 7%

Growth rate

01/00:

- 1.3 %477,3455,1

1999 2000

Growth rate

00/99: 4.9%

International Tourist Arrivals(millions)

International Tourist Receipts(USD billions)

Purpose of visitInternational tourist arrivals

0

20

40

60

80

100

World Africa Americas EAP Europe MiddleEast

SouthAsia

%

Leisure, Recreation, Holidays VFR, Health, Religion, Other Business, Professional

Year 2001 was affected by:

- foot and mouth disease

- economic slow-down

- stocks sliding

- decrease in consumer confidence

- slight increase in unemployment

-pro- and anti- globalization movements

- the antrax scare

11th SEPTEMBER TERRORIST ATTACKS

The 11th September Impact on Global Tourism:

Worst Hit Segments:

• Long-haul tourism

• Air carriers

• Hotels

• Business Travel

• Destinations heavily dependent on US traffic

Effects on Global Tourism, triggered by 11th September

Airlines:

• Massive cancellations

• Global losses for the year 2001: USD10-12 billion (IATA)

• Bankruptcies

• Reduction of capacity and staff

• Curtailment of routes

• Profit warnings and a slump in share prices

• Accelerated retirement or sale of aircraft and cancellation or delay of aircraft orders

• Major insurance problems

Accommodation:

• Massive cancellations and job losses

• Worst hit: up-market hotels, particularly, hotels catering for

individual businessmen, conventions and incentives and which

have a high proportion of North American clients

• Income per room dropped 19.4 per cent in the US and 8.2 per cent elsewhere in the world

• At the end of 2001 occupancy rates were still 13 per cent down on 2000

Sectors and Segments Least Affected by the Crisis

•Redistribution of tourist flows in favour of:

- destinations perceived as safe

- domestic tourism

- destinations reached by alternative transport (car)

• Special interest tourism (sports, culture, ecotourism)

Remedial Actions proposed by

the WTO Tourism Recovery Committee

• Preserve the industry’s operational capacity

• Institutional measures: government coordination

• Rebuild consumer confidence

• Enhance safety and security

• Improve communication

• Better targeted products

• Vigorous marketing (including cooperative action)

• Public-private partnerships

• Understanding the economic impact of tourism

(by markets, segments, sectors, etc.)

The Crisis as a Catalyst:

• Encouraging the development of new products

• Targeting new market segments

• Improving product quality and competitiveness

• Eliminating rigidities and inefficiencies

• Speeding up changes (direct bookings, Internet,

closure of travel agencies, consolidation in the air transport sector)

• Underlining the role of tourism as a wealth generator,

job creator and promoter of peace and understanding

International Tourism Key Words

Growth

Globalization

Vulnerability

Resilience

Growth of World Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

% c

hang

e ov

er p

revi

ous

year

Real GDP Tourist ArrivalsAverage 1975-2000 Average 1975-2000

Second oil crisis /crisis (Afghanistan, Poland,...)

Gulf War /Yugoslavia

Asian crisis / Problems in the Eastern Mediterranean

Growth / Performance

Vulnerability / resilience

Asia: financial crisis (1997-1998)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Inte

rnat

iona

l Tou

rist A

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Egypt: Luxor terrorist attacks (November 1997)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Inte

rnat

iona

l Tou

rist A

rriv

als

(mill

ions

)

Tourist arrivals by receiving regions, 1950-2020

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

mil

lio

ns

South AsiaMiddle EastAfricaEast Asia/PacificAmericasEurope

Actual Forecasts

699 mn

1.006 mn

1.561 mn

Growth

Internet Use for MICE Organizers

Features of a MICE site:

• General editorial material to help raise awareness of the destination• Detailed practical information• Information about travel options• Details of the services provided • Full details of MICE products• Access to the full leisure product database• Online reservations• Special promotions for MICE organizers to offer their clients• Details of DMO personnel• Optional registration to receive future information and offers

Prospects for Central European Destinations(1)

Joining the European Union

Huge benefits:

- joining most economically and socially developed nations - free movement of capitals, goods, services and people - joining the euro zone

Factors to take into account:

- increased competition - the need to harmonize legal frameworks in tourism (The EU package tour directive, the Bill of air passenger rights, etc.)

Prospects for Central European Destinations(2)

• Rich and varied heritage (natural and man-madetourism resources)

• Living folk traditions and hospitality

• Relatively developed tourism infrastructure

• Potential for varied and high quality tourism offer

• Proximity to major European markets

• Positive image

• Institutional support and public awareness

www.world-tourism.orgachlevkov@world-tourism.org