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  • 8/30/2015


    Global Technology TrendsFall 2015

    When a distinguished and elderly scientist says something is possible,

    he is almost certainly correct.When he says something is impossible,

    he is very probably wrong. Arthur C. Clarke

    Technology and the Future (1972)

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    What is technology? Everything thats already in the world when youre born is just normal.

    Anything that gets invented between then and before you turn 30 is incredibly exciting and creative and with any luck you can make a career out of it.

    Anything that gets invented after youre 30 is against the natural order of things and the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it until its been around for about 10 years when it gradually turns out to be alright really.

    Douglas AdamsAuthor, Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy

    How to Stop Worrying and Learn to Love the Internet (1999)

    Technology is stuff that doesnt work yet.

    Bran FerrenCo-chairman, Applied Minds

    Former EVP of Disney Imagineering

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    Do you remember 2008?

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    I didnt get it ALL right

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    And I keep changing these slides

    #SoLoMo Atoms vs. Bits

    Global Technology TrendsFall 2015

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    Web 2.0On the Internet,

    nobody knows youre a dog.

    Social Media Foreshadows Web 3.0

    Education is Disrupted

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    American Council on Education Recommends 5 MOOCs for Credit

    A teacher that can be replaced by a machine,

    should be.

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    Sugata Mitras Hole in the Wall

    Un-Mass Production

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    A Dutch company has come up with a way to print lenses, which one day could be used to

    make prescription glasses on demand.

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    Bionic EarArtificial Heart Valve

    Liver Cells (living tissue)Skeleton

    Big Data / The Internet of Everything

    Just as water is wet in a way that individual water molecules arent, big data can reveal information in a

    way that individual bits of data cant.Clay Shirkey

    author of Cognitive Surplus

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    Soon, only 1/5 of DoCoMos users

    will be human beings. The rest will be cars, bicycles,

    computers, ships, vending machines and

    home appliances.Dr. Keiji TachikawaCEO, NTT DoCoMo

    (January 2004)

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    IPv4 Migration to IPv6

    IPv432 bits


    4.3 * 109(4.3 billion)

    IPv6128 bits


    3.4 * 1038(340 undecillion)


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    Genetics / Personalized Medicine

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    Google Lens is being created to help monitor diabetes through a sensor that sends out

    information on glucose levels in the wearers tears. The information is transmitted through a radio antenna embedded in the lens that is

    thinner than a human hair.

    Googles Health Tracker

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    August 2015

    Big data will replace the need for 80% of all doctors.

    Vinod KhoslaCo-founder, Sun Microsystems

    VC at Kleiner Perkins(2012)

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    Robotics / Artificial Intelligence

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    Dont worry about your job being

    outsourced to China or India

    Your job will be outsourced to a computer

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    To survive in this age, individuals and

    organizations must examine what theyredoing to earn a living and ask themselves:

    Can a computer do it faster?

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    May 2015

    By mimicking the layers of neuronsin a human brain and crunching vastamounts of data, (computers) canteach themselves to perform sometasks, from pattern recognition totranslation, almost as well as humanscan.

    As a result, things that once calledfor a mind from interpretingpictures to playing video games arenow within the scope of computerprograms.

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    Completely Automated Public Turing

    test to tell Computers and Humans Apart

    The Turing Test

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    A computer would deserve

    to be called intelligent if it could deceive a

    human into believing that

    it was human.

    Alan Turing (1912-54)

    By 2029, computers will be able to understand our language, learn from

    experience, and outsmart even the most intelligent humans.

    Ray KurzweilDirector of Engineering


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    Todays brains arent much better than todays computers.

    1. Ability to make decisions with incomplete data sets (e.g., fight or flight)

    2. Low power consumption (20 watts vs. megawatts)

    3. Fault tolerance (losing just one transistor can wreck a microprocessor, but brains lose neurons all the time)

    4. No programming necessary (brains learn and change spontaneously as they interact with the world instead of following the fixed paths of a predetermined algorithms)

    Todays brains arent much better than todays computers.

    Which one do you think is roughly doubling in capability

    every 18 months?

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    Will Your Children Live Forever?

    We have the ability to solve almost all of mans grand challenges

    within the next 30 years.

    Peter DiamandisFounder, X-Prize Foundation


    Reasons to be Hopeful about the Future

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    The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

    Thomas Friedman quoting former Saudi Oil Minister Yamani

    Some Things That Dont Have a Future

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    Two Things That Do Have a Future

    One only needs two tools in life: WD-40 to make things go and duck tape to make them stop.

    GM Weilacher

    Before We Forget the Past

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    ETHERNET Bob Metcalfe 1973(CSMA)

    INTERNET Vinton Cerf 1962 / 1974Bob Kahn (TCP/IP)

    WWW Tim Berners-Lee 1989 / 1991(FTP / HTTP)

    a. Amaras Law

    b. Metcalfes Law

    c. Moores Law

    d. Stanforths Law

    Some More History You Should Know

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    We invariably overestimate the short-term impact of new technologies, while

    underestimating their long-term effects.

    Roy Amara (1925-2007)Co-founder, Institute of the Future

    a. Amaras Law

    b. Metcalfes Law

    The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2).

    It is related to the fact that the number of unique connections in a network of a number of nodes (n) can be expressed mathematically as the triangular number n(n 1)/2.

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    c. Moores Law

    A long-term trend in the history of computing hardware in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.

    d. Stanforth Rule

    There are only two kinds of problems that exist in the world:

    Those that violate the laws of physics andthose that time and money can solve.

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    The Mayans lost to the Aztecs, the Romans lost to the Barbarians, and the French lost to the Vietnamese.

    In each case the losers had superior technology, but the victors had more troops.