global sustainability challenges and the european...
TRANSCRIPT
Global sustainability challenges and the European reply
Victor Galaz
Deputy Science Director
Stockholm Resilience Centre
The great acceleration
Image: GLOBAIA
Photo: Jean Tresfon, Yann Arthus-Bertrand, SprengBen/Flickr
In the Anthropocene, we need to understand and define Earth Resilience
Safeguarding the Holocene equilibrium is Humanity’s desired state of the Planet
Earth Resilience defined by the biophysical processes that determine (through self-regulating feedbacks and interactions) the ability of the Earth system to remain in a stable state
Time and
responsibility
Image from Clark et al. (2016), Nature Climate Change
You are here!
A Connected Planet
Photo: timsteeves.com
Helbing, D. (2013) Globally networked risks and how to respond. Nature.
Photo: Jean Tresfon, Yann Arthus-Bertrand, SprengBen/Flickr
Global risks are dynamic – thanks to us!
Surprise, complexity and unavoidable uncertainty
Resilience critical!
PERSISTENCE in the face of change, buffer capacity, withstand shocks
ADAPTABILITY the capacity of people in a social-ecological system to manage resilience e.g. through collective action
TRANSFORMABILITY the capacity of people in a social-ecological system to create a new system when ecological, political, social or economic conditions make the existing system untenable
Resilience – the capacity to continue to develop in face of disturbance and change
Béné C, et al. 2016. Food Security (online Dec 2015)
19901950 2015
Resilience for
Development in
Turbulent
Globalised World
Development for Wealth
Sustainable Development –
Growth minimizing Env Impact
Sustainable
Development on
Saturated Planet
Human Pressures
on Planet
Maintain diversity & redundancy
7 PRINCIPLES OF RESILIENCE THINKING
Manage connectivity
Manage slow variables and feedbacks
Foster complex adaptive systems thinking
Encourage learning
Broaden participation
Promote polycentric governance systems
Biggs et al. 2015. Principles for building resilience. Cambridge University Press
Image credit:
Damon Davis,
allhandsondeck.org
1. From institutional fragmentation to innovation
Complex interactions of drivers
”Blame games”
Messy institutional architecture
Simple institutional solutions impossible
Evolving network, with patterns of
information sharing, coordination, and
conflict resolution.
Successful cases: use diversity as an
opportunity for linking across levels,
“test” new solutions, adapt to changing
circumstances --> adaptive governance
Scientific agenda(’polycentric governance’, legal
principles/norms, policy
integration]
Policy agendaNetworks, experiments,
evaluation, flexibility
2. From ecoefficiency to biopositive+
”Moore’s law” for biosphere innovation
Bee Urban
Algae farming Simrisalg
”smart” textilesSocial-ecological urbanism
Biopositive+
• build on insights from ecology
• add ecological services
• increase the ”safe operating space”
More than 60% of the area projected to be
urban in 2030 has yet to be built
An Urban Opportunity
Image: GLOBAIA
More than XX%? of the businesses
projected to exist in 2030 have yet to be
created!
An Entrepreneurial Opportunity
3. From adaptation to transformation policies
But How?
But How?
often emerge initially in settings outside of
conventional decision-making structures
(‘shadow networks’, ‘niches’, ‘transition
arenas’)
“institutional entrepreneurs” able to
deal with risk of failure
policies that: evaluate, repeat and
upscale/sidescale/deep scale
Top 10% account for 38% of total revenues
Correspond to 18% of the global value of seafood production in 2012
(US$ 252 billion)
Concentration in the seafood industryÖsterblom et al. (2015)
These ‘Keystone actors control 19-40% of several of the world’s largest or most valuable capture fisheries
These ‘Keystone’ companies…
… influence global governance processes and institutions
… dominate global production revenues and volumes
… control globally relevant segments of seafood production
… connect ecosystems globally through subsidiaries
4. In sum
In the Anthropocene, we need to understand and define Earth Resilience
Safeguarding the Holocene equilibrium is Humanity’s desired state of the Planet
Earth Resilience defined by the biophysical processes that determine (through self-regulating feedbacks and interactions) the ability of the Earth system to remain in a stable state
Image: spatialanalysis.ca
Image: spatialanalysis.ca
Global Tipping Points for Biosphere-based innovation
https://goodanthropocenes.net/map-of-seeds/
From planetary risks, to planetary opportunities
The biosphere as a basis
for human prosperity for
all
From minimizing environmental
impacts, to building Earth
system resilience
http://resilience2017.org/
Thank you!
Victor Galaz
@vgalaz