Global South African News Wrap – 21 December 2012 How Zuma persuaded ANC to drop the ‘N’ word

Miners breathe sigh of relief with nationalisation debate ‘off table’

ANC Youth League’s future in balance

Dlamini-Zuma tops the list as ANC chooses national executive

Zuma victory bad for Mugabe

Ramaphosa's election may boost plan

Zille scathing on Zuma's re-election

Achmat to consult veterans league over ANC support

ANC slaps down Vavi over election slates

Ramaphosa move makes sense if he is delegated wide powers

Man of action Ramaphosa good for Zuma

ANC must cement unity with action

Ramaphosa’s rise could bring conflicts of interest

‘Boost for business’ in Ramaphosa comeback

ANC members must learn economics — Manuel

JZ needs rivals close

Motlanthe must retain his position: delegates

Party's pinnacle of power

Blueprints for 'death plot'

Unionist-turned-tycoon is now SA's second most powerful man

Out in the cold

21 December 2012 Business Day Carol Paton and Mariam Isa How Zuma persuaded ANC to drop the ‘N’ word

THE African National Congress (ANC) has ditched the concept of "strategic nationalisation" in favour of "strategic state ownership" after an 11th-hour intervention by President Jacob Zuma.

He told the drafters of the party’s economic policy resolution at its conference in Mangaung to remove the word "nationalisation" — a bold effort to restore policy certainty for investors and turn around South Africa’s flagging credit ratings.

An attempt by the ANC Youth League to have the word reinstated when the resolution was presented to conference delegates on Thursday, failed.

"The state will increase state ownership in strategic sectors where deemed appropriate, on the balance of evidence ," the resolution read.

The state would further increase its participation in the mining sector through equity, using the state-owned mining company as its vehicle.

The resolution implied that there will be higher taxes for the mining industry, but did not specify what form these might take. It said the state should "capture an equitable share of mineral resource rents and deploy them in the interests of long-term economic growth, development and transformation".

Enoch Godongwana, chairman of the ANC’s economic transformation committee, told a media briefing this could take the form a resource rent tax, a "windfall tax" on super profits or another, unspecified, measure. "There will be a tax, what form it will take has not been decided."

The resolution further raised the prospect of export taxes on designated "strategic minerals" deemed important for industrialisation or as key inputs into downstream products. Among those in line for designation are iron ore, coal, base metals and gas.

The party said it wanted to assure investors that "nationalisation was off the table".

"The national conference has refused to be drawn into the (use of) the word nationalisation," said Public Enterprises Minister Malusi Gigaba. "This means that the issue of nationalisation, that we have discussed over the past few months, is off the table.

"We are providing final clarity. There shouldn’t be any expectation from here that we will come out and say we are going to nationalise."

Mr Zuma called the drafters of the resolution — who included Thaba Mufamadi, chairman of Parliament’s standing committee on finance, Mr Godongwana and Mr Gigaba — to an early morning meeting on Thursday. Participants close to the process said the president told them they should take out "that word".

Provincial chairpersons and secretaries were hurriedly briefed before the presentation to the plenary on Thursday and asked to support the resolution.

But global rating agencies are likely to continue sitting on the fence for a while in terms of their assessment of South Africa.

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) MD for Southern Africa Konrad Reuss said on Thursday the agency would wait to see what follow-through action the government took before revisiting its sovereign rating of South Africa, which it downgraded in October. "From our perspective the jury is out — we have to see what it is that is going to be implemented as far as policy action is concerned ."

Anything that would support growth in the economy, deal with social and labour market issues, and support fiscal consolidation, would be constructive for South Africa’s rating, Mr Reuss said.

S&P has put a negative outlook on its BBB credit rating for South Africa, citing the recent wave of strikes, which it said might increase "uncertainties" related to the country’s economic policy framework.

The Black Business Council (BBC) said it was "relieved" that the ANC had "once and for all buried the threat" of the wholesale nationalisation of mines and banks. "The BBC believes the ANC should better manage the perceptions around its economic policy choices and reaffirm the private sector as the appropriate agent for accelerated economic growth and employment creation."

The council believed the role of the state should be to create conducive conditions for good and socially responsible business.

MD of Pan African Investment and Research Iraj Abedian, said the ANC’s economic policy resolution was " more of the same".

"The ANC has always engaged in rigorous, left-sounding debate, or more recently, populist oriented, but when all is said and done there are fairly pragmatic and realistic policy choices ."

The ANC further resolved that there would be no ban on labour brokers. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomed the resolution.

" One must take it as an appreciation by the ANC that labour broking has a role to play in job creation," CE Neren Rau said.

"On the issue of nationalisation, it’s good that this has been clarified. It will be positively received by the international community."

21 December 2012 Business Day Allan Seccombe Miners breathe sigh of relief with nationalisation debate ‘off table’

THE mining industry is relieved the African National Congress (ANC) has firmly rejected nationalisation of mines, talk of which had caused policy uncertainty, cast a pall over their shares and dominated their interactions with international investors.

But there will be intense negotiations between the sector and the Treasury on a new tax regime for mining companies, which argue that they are the most heavily taxed in South Africa.

The Chamber of Mines said on Thursday in a statement that the finalisation of the ANC’s stance on nationalisation removed a key point of uncertainty for investors. "The chamber welcomes the ANC resolution that wholesale nationalisation is not a reasonable or sustainable option and that it has now firmly ruled out nationalisation of the mining industry.

"We are hopeful that this will create some certainty amongst investors and once again encourage investment in the country’s mining sector."

Cadiz Corporate Solutions analyst Peter Major said there had been heightened fears of what could have come from the ANC against the backdrop of unprecedented strikes this year that cut billions of rand in revenue for platinum and gold companies. The outcome of the policy debate was good. "It’s come out a whole lot better than any of us thought it would," Mr Major said. " It has defused the Malema-type guys in the party ."

The ANC has for years been dithering on calls for nationalisation from the party’s youth league and its since-expelled president, Julius Malema. But there remains uncertainty in the market about the quantum of taxes that may be imposed on the mining sector.

The JSE index, housing the top 20 resources shares, closed 0.2% down on Thursday.

"The real issue is that there is still no certainty on what will happen, so investors will remain cautious until there is some clarity," said Des Kilalea, a mining analyst with Royal Bank of Canada in Europe.

"Merely taking nationalisation off the table is not sufficient. There has to be a detailed and firm policy if investment dollars are to be attracted."

The mining sector paid R25.8bn in direct corporate taxes and R5.5bn in royalties last year. It is further obliged to spend money on social and labour plans necessary to secure mining rights.

Chamber of Mines CEO Bheki Sibiya said last week that higher taxes could force the closure of marginal shafts and the potential loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

A senior figure in the ANC said the appointment of businessman Cyril Ramaphosa as deputy president of the party augured well for the mining sector. "One of the functions of the position taken here (at Mangaung) was to manage the expectations of people frustrated by what they perceive as an insignificant contribution made by the mining industry.

"It’s important to manage those expectations and it’s even more important that this matter be resolved as soon as possible to thwart those who want wholesale nationalisation."

The source said the nationalisation debate had engendered uncertainty that was higher than that emanating from discussions about the level of taxation. "Assets are not under threat of being taken anymore.

"It now means profits will be less, but the extent of that is up for discussion," the source said. "There was a price to pay to deal with nationalisation and that is higher taxes that will be imposed in a responsible manner."

21 December Business Day Setumo Stone ANC Youth League’s future in balance

THE future of the African National Congress (ANC) Youth League came under scrutiny this week at the party’s national conference, threatening to erode the little progress made between the league and the ANC since Julius Malema was booted out.

Speaking at a media briefing on Thursday, former ANC national executive committee member Febe Potgieter-Gqubule said delegates gave the incoming executive committee the mandate to urgently intervene and assess the state of the youth league. This follows a strong push from President Jacob Zuma’s supporters for the ANC to disband the youth league executive and order an early conference to elect new leaders.

However, attempts by the ANC to intervene in the running of the youth league are likely to spark another controversy on the interpretation of the league’s

autonomous status. Some in the league this week dared the ANC to go ahead and intervene.

Ms Potgieter-Gqubule said the league is an organ of the ANC and it cannot define itself outside the mother body.

The league had supported Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe to replace Mr Zuma at the elections this week in Mangaung. But he lost to Mr Zuma by a wide margin.

The term of office of the youth league leadership ends in 2014. But the expulsion of its former president, Mr Malema, as well as the suspension of its secretary-general Sindiso Magaqa, had left it in limbo.

In an interview earlier this week, Mpumalanga premier and ANC provincial chairman David Mabuza, a close ally of Mr Zuma, said the league had been participating in efforts ahead of the conference to seek unity within the ANC, including a consensus on the party’s national leadership candidates. Mr Mabuza said there was "room to build the youth league with the current contingent and allow them to go to a proper conference".

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe — who had been the subject of the league’s vociferous attacks against the ANC during the Malema era — also took a conciliatory note, saying the league was not in trouble. "All the league needs is to be helped to play its rightful role.

"It is very militant, but sometimes it loses focus and it is the responsibility of the incoming national executive committee to help the youth league," Mr Mantashe said this week.

On Sunday, Mr Malema wrote a letter to the conference for permission to return as youth league president. Mr Mantashe said the letter was received after the programme for the conference had been adopted.

Mr Malema was expelled from the ANC for comparing the leadership style of Mr Zuma to that of former president Thabo Mbeki, and for remarks on bringing about regime change in Botswana.

21 December Business Day Dlamini-Zuma tops the list as ANC chooses national executive

FORMER home affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, now chairwoman of the African Union Commission, was the first member of the African National Congress’s new national executive committee (NEC) announced at its national elective conference in Mangaung on Thursday, the last day of the conference.

She had received the most votes in the election that took place on Wednesday. The 80-member NEC is the ruling party's highest decision-making body between conferences and general councils.

Also high up on the list were Minister of Public Enterprises Malusi Gigaba, in second place, and Public Service and Administration Minister Lindiwe Sisulu in third, along with Minister in the Presidency Collins Chabane, Justice Minister Jeff Radebe, Home Affairs Minister Naledi Pandor and Science and Technology Minister Derek Hanekom.

Senior ANC figures who supported the change campaign in Mangaung were nowhere to be seen on the list of the party’s top brass. Among those not elected were Sport and Recreation Minister Fikile Mbalula, ANC Gauteng chairman Paul Mashatile, Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale, former ANC deputy secretary-general Thandi Modise and former ANC treasurer-general Mathews Phosa.

Thoko Didiza, former minister of public works, joined the NEC too, and delegates cheered when the name of former Gauteng local government MEC Humphrey Mmemezi was read out. He resigned after it was revealed that he bought a painting at McDonald’s using a government credit card.

Former national police chief Bheki Cele, who was fired by President Jacob Zuma, also made the cut.

The party has also selected top financial minds in a bid to boost its financial prowess, a move likely to bring confidence to the party's top leadership structure in the eyes of investors. The economic boost to the NEC came in the form of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, Minister of Rural Development and Land Reform Gugile Nkwinti and former Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni.

Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa, Speaker of Parliament Max Sisulu and former Cabinet minister Z Pallo Jordan got the nod.

From the ANC’s alliance partners, South African Communist Party (SACP) general secretary Blade Nzimande and Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) president Sdumo Dlamini were elected as well.

Other trade unionists also featured prominently, including National Education, Health and Allied Workers' Union general secretary Fikile Majola, National Union of Mineworkers president and SACP chairman Senzeni Zokwane and Free State Cosatu secretary Sam Mashinini.

Joining the other NEC members on stage were ANC spokesman Jackson Mthembu, Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi and ANC economic policy chief Enoch Godongwana.

In a nod to the younger generation in the ANC, former ANC Youth League treasurer Pule Mabe and former presidential spokesman Zizi Kodwa were elected too.

Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, who received the most votes in the NEC election at Polokwane in 2007, squeezed into the second-last spot this time.

Former ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe had withdrawn from nomination to the NEC after losing the race for the party presidency to Mr Zuma earlier this week.

Others who had not made themselves available for election to the NEC were Planning Minister Trevor Manuel, Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi and former Free State provincial leader Ace Magashule, whose provincial executive committee was disbanded after the Constitutional Court last week declared the Free State elective conference invalid.

21 December Business Day Ray Ndlovu Zuma victory bad for Mugabe

PRESIDENT Jacob Zuma’s re-election to lead the African National Congress (ANC) in Mangaung this week for a second term is likely to slam the brakes on President Robert Mugabe’s bid to hold early elections, according to political analysts in Zimbabwe.

Mr Mugabe wants elections in March, but Mr Zuma, the Southern African Development Community (Sadc)-appointed mediator, is widely seen as an obstacle to Mr Mugabe’s plans.

Mr Mugabe’s Zanu (PF) passed a resolution at its party conference held at the beginning of this month to go ahead with early elections next year, despite key political reforms not yet being completed.

Insiders in Zanu (PF) say that Mr Mugabe is now privately conceding that the elections he desperately wants held early may not be possible until next June because of the slow pace of implementing the reforms.

Political analyst Charles Mangongera said on Thursday Mr Zuma’s victory meant there would be a continuation of the same trajectory of dealing with Mr Mugabe.

"A leadership change in the ANC would not necessarily have resulted in a change of attitude towards Harare by Sadc, but would have certainly slowed down things a bit. Mr Zuma and his facilitation team will stick to their guns in calling for strict adherence to the road map on elections. This will put a damper on Zanu (PF)’s threat to call an election without a new constitution."

Political analyst Tanonoka Joseph Whande said Zanu (PF) was "in the same league of losers as the former ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema", who had launched a public push to block Mr Zuma’s re-election.

"Zanu (PF) may not have been publicly campaigning against Mr Zuma, but they stood to benefit immensely from a leadership change in the ANC," he said.

Zanu (PF) chairman Simon Khaya Moyo, however, downplayed the effect of Mr Zuma’s win. He said that his party remained the firm favourite to win the next elections.

"Our party has always stood firm in advancing the views of the people and we believe that agreeing to anything from external sources, other than the views of the people, is a betrayal of the revolution. Zanu (PF) remains the sole political choice for the majority of people of Zimbabwe", Mr Moyo said.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) welcomed the ANC leadership outcome.

"The election of Mr Zuma will ensure continuity in the mediation process in Zimbabwe," said MDC spokesman Douglas Mwonzora.

19 December 2012 Business Report Page 1 Donwald Pressly Ramaphosa's election may boost plan

The election of Cyril Ramaphosa, the deputy chairman of the National Planning Commission, to the ANC’s second most powerful position has given the National Development Plan (NDP) much-needed impetus, but cabinet ministers played down any contradictions it may have with the New Growth Path (NGP), which already has the backing of ANC structures.

Ramaphosa notched up 3 018 votes in the race for deputy to President Jacob Zuma, who got 2 983 votes against Kgalema Motlanthe, signalling that the more conservative and pro-business NDP will receive a solid thumbs-up by the 4 000 delegates to the Mangaung ANC conference.

Before the conference started, Ramaphosa himself noted that the plan needed to get the conference nod, although the blueprint, driven by National Planning Minister Trevor Manuel, had already been given the green light by Parliament and the cabinet.

In his opening speech, Zuma referred to the plan as representing a confluence of ideas that extended beyond ANC supporters alone, and he did not wish to entertain debate about alternative plans.

During a Progressive Business Forum breakfast yesterday, Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel said he did not view the NDP and the NGP, driven by his department, as being contradictory. Some minor details might clash during the implementation process, he said, but these were not significant.

Deputy Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene expressed similar sentiments on Monday at the conference.

The NDP is essentially a development blueprint. It warns that urgent steps are needed to grow the economy, drastically raise employment levels, massively improve education standards, upgrade infrastructure, curb corruption and improve health services.

The NGP, first launched in 2010, has seven priority areas, including job creation, infrastructure development, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, the green economy and tourism. It places emphasis on the state creating the platform for economic development.

Pressed on whether the conference would end critical policy uncertainty in the economic arena, Patel said: “I believe that business will get that certainty.”

However, he said that in a democracy, public policy was open to public debate.

“It is not an issue for smoke-filled rooms… it is a societal matter… of course it is sometimes noisy and on occasion it is messy.”

Confronted by the charge that the NGP – which sees a significant role for the government and its state-owned entities in creating jobs – was “not consistent with the NDP”, Patel said: “The NGP and the NDP fit well together [and this is] not by accident.” .

“The starting points are the same,” he argued. Both documents sought fast economic expansion and job-rich growth.

Asked by First National Bank chief economist Sizwe Nxedlana why there appeared to be a “disconnect” between policies on paper “and accountability on the ground” – such as the non-delivery of school textbooks – Patel said he agreed that there was often a lot of talk about policies, but little action.

Business Unity SA (Busa) welcomed the results of the vote for the ANC’s new top six leadership.

It particularly drew attention to the need for the implementation of the NDP.

Busa chief executive Nomaxabiso Majokweni said the new top six were coming on board “at a time when the country is faced with serious and critical challenges”.

They included declining confidence among investors, high and escalating levels of corruption, socio-economic challenges such as increasing levels of inequality, joblessness and poverty.

Patel dismissed concerns that foreign direct investment, for example, was dropping. One could not look at an unusually good year, such as when the US-based Walmart bought Massmart, and then compare this with a year when there was reduced foreign investment.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Ramaphosa’s election as ANC deputy president had spurred a call by Cosatu for him to step down as chairman of MTN and Bidvest.

Ramaphosa also sits on the boards of SABMiller, Standard Bank and Lonmin.

Ramaphosa declined to comment, saying he would do so later.

18 December 2012 News 24 Sapa Zille scathing on Zuma's re-election

The ANC's national conference election results will hasten the "disintegration" and collapse of the ruling party, Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille said on Tuesday.

"Many ANC members and many more ANC voters are feeling alienated by today's decision in Mangaung."

Zille said it was a sad day for South Africa because Jacob Zuma's re-election as African National Congress president sent out a message that this was a movement that put "powerful people" above the law.

"This is particularly clear globally, where it is just inconceivable that a president who has avoided, for three years, facing trial on over 700 counts of corruption, could be re-elected a party president."

She was referring to Zuma's previous legal battle against corruption allegations, resulting from the fraud conviction of his former financial advisor Schabir Shaik.

In April 2009, the National Prosecuting Authority dropped the charges against Zuma, just months before he was elected into the country's top post.

The DA recently called on Zuma to take a leave of absence until allegations against him were dealt with.

Zille said Zuma's re-election also sent a message that "it is acceptable to use positions in government for personal enrichment, and not for public service".

She was referring to a multi-million rand upgrade at Zuma's Nkandla home.

Zille said Tuesday's results showed that the abuse of public funds was acceptable in the ANC, and that there were no consequences.

She said Zuma's lack of leadership on any major policy questions would continue "as will the corruption and abuse of public resources that has so far characterised his time in office".

Zille said the unemployed and poor South Africans particularly felt let down by the results.

"... as it is they who bear the real brunt of a president and government that cannot offer any implementable solutions for economic growth and job creation. "We invite all South Africans who are disappointed by the ANC's decision today to join this movement [the DA] - this new majority that is working for, and delivering, meaningful social change and job creation in South Africa."

19 December 2012 Cape Times/ The Star Zara Nicholson Achmat to consult veterans league over ANC support

ACTIVIST Zackie Achmat yesterday described the Mangaung vote as a “victory for the corrupt”, but before he acts on his vow to withdraw support for the ANC if Jacob Zuma was returned for a second term, he is first consulting the ANC Veterans League.

Minutes after the voting results were announced at the Mangaung conference yesterday, the Cape Town activist told reporters: “This marks the end of the ANC as a party of progress, freedom and social justice.”

He described the vote as a display of fake dominance, and a “victory for the corrupt business and public service faction”. Last month, Achmat who joined the ANC 32 years ago, said he would no longer support the party if Zuma was re-elected as ANC president.

At the time, he threw his weight behind Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, saying: “The ANC today is no longer the party I joined in prison during 1980 when I was recruited by Johnny Issel. From the time of former president Mbeki, corruption has been rewarded, whether it be the arms deal or Oilgate, and under President Zuma it has reached significant proportions.”

Achmat has always openly criticised the party and said he withdrew his membership under Mbeki in 2004, and would now withdraw his support for the ANC.

However, the ANC Veterans League sent Achmat an open letter asking him not to withdraw his support. Achmat said: “Even though my instinct is to stick to my principles, I will consult the veterans and explain why I want to leave rather than ask permission. The way I think, I don’t think I can support the ANC.”

The letter, signed by the league’s president, Sandi Sejake, said: “It is not even worth thinking of leaving the ANC after the years of sacrifice just because agents of destruction have an upper hand in the ANC at present.

“The ANC is our proverbial Jerusalem and we are the only ones who must build its walls so that future generations can see where they come from and occupy the heights from which they are able to clearly map their destiny.

“That is not through tenders, bribes, corruption, theft, plundering, destruction of education for the youth, maculating the health system, and subtle promotion of tribalism and racism.

“The answer is through rebuilding the young people to provide a healthy leadership to the ANC and in the ANC.”

Sejake told Achmat that he was one of the few people in the ANC who still fought for substantive implementation of the Freedom Charter.

Achmat said he would make a formal announcement about his support after consulting the league.

19 December 2012 Business Day Staff ANC slaps down Vavi over election slates

A NEW war of words erupted last night between the African National Congress (ANC) and Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) chief Zwelinzima Vavi, with the ANC slapping down Mr Vavi’s earlier criticisms of the party’s Mangaung conference.

The standoff exposed the frailties in the ruling alliance, and made a mockery of pleas by President Jacob Zuma and ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe for the alliance partners to settle their differences away from the public glare of the media.

Last night, ANC spokesman Jackson Mthembu said Mr Vavi had ignored ANC leaders’ warnings that "Cosatu’s public posture at times causes problems for the ANC", noting: "Now, because Zwelinzima Vavi was not in the conference when the organisational report was delivered, he repeats the same mistake. If he doubts the positive impact of this conference, he must monitor the international financial markets."

Earlier, Mr Vavi had said: "Unfortunately there has not been a great show of unity. In the past two days that’s not what the conference has demonstrated in terms of the leadership fighting.

"The slate thing is not going to help us …. We are quite worried about the slate." He hoped a winner-takes-all mentality was not adopted. This would mean people on the wrong slate would be sidelined and their talents ignored.

"That will be a tragedy. The winner-takes-all mentality is a recipe for disaster in terms of unity. There has to be greater levels of unity in the ANC and greater levels of unity between the ANC and the alliance formation. And you can only achieve that if that discussion on organisational renewal is taken seriously by everybody."

Mr Vavi had been nominated by some structures in the ANC for a position on the national executive committee (NEC), but declined the nomination, saying: "The ANC members were trying to get the NEC strengthened by getting people like me and others to come in. But I’m sorry that I’ve disappointed them yet again."

Elections for the NEC began last night.

A string of high-profile ANC members, including Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, declined nomination.

Others who said no included presidential spokesman Mac Maharaj, Minister in the Presidency Trevor Manuel, Northern Cape ANC chairman John Block, and struggle stalwart Jay Naidoo.

National Union of Metalworkers of SA general secretary Irvin Jim and National Union of Mineworkers general secretary Frans Baleni also refused, as did Free State ANC chairman Ace Magashule.

Among those on the list for possible election to the NEC were: former Gauteng housing MEC Humphrey Mmemezi; former ANC Youth League spokeswoman Magdalene Moonsamy; Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale; Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi, ANC spokesman Jackson Mthembu, Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa, Mining Minister Susan Shabangu, former head of the Presidency Frank Chikane, and former Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni.

Former Western Cape premier Ebrahim Rasool, former chief whip Tony Yengeni, Economic Development minister Ebrahim Patel, Rural Development

Minister Gugile Nkwinti, former national police commissioner Bheki Cele and Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane were also nominated.

19 December 2012 Business Day Page 7 Allister Sparks Ramaphosa move makes sense if he is delegated wide powers SELDOM has so much been written by so many indicating so little as is pouring out of the African National Congress’s (ANC’s) national conference in Mangaung.

As the conference gets under its messy way, with war talk between factions, credential disputes, insult hurling, the threat of legal interdiction and at least one assassination attempt, it is clear that there is really only one issue of political consequence to mark what is supposed to be a landmark event in the ANC’s 100-year history: why is Cyril Ramaphosa making a comeback 18 years after he should have been tapped as president Nelson Mandela’s successor?

Everything else taking place at Mangaung has been a foregone conclusion for months.

It has long been obvious that the interlocking patronage system that President Jacob Zuma has established within the ANC would ensure his automatic re-election, and that his disillusioned deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, would challenge him for the presidency, knowing he would lose but regarding it as "a matter of principle" that the dysfunctional Zuma should not go unchallenged.

It has been evident, too, that whatever policy decisions are taken in Mangaung will matter little, for the government has a mountain of resolutions taken at Polokwane five years ago that have not been implemented.

Another dozen or so taken now will simply swell the backlog.

Implementation is the ANC’s critical problem. The government is paralysed by ideological gridlock.

The fault line cuts through its economic ministries, with Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and Planning Minister Trevor Manuel on one side and Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel and Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies on the other. To favour one side is to alienate the other. So nothing gets done.

This is where Ramaphosa comes into the picture, with his last-minute acceptance of nomination for the party’s deputy presidency.

I have a high regard for Ramaphosa. He and the National Party’s Roelf Meyer were the heroes of the Convention for a Democratic SA, establishing a bond that piloted this country through a series of major transitional crises into our democratic era.

It was Ramaphosa who was the fulcrum figure around whom the Constitutional Assembly crafted our new constitution. He is a master strategist and a shrewd negotiator. He founded the National Union of Mineworkers and went on to be secretary-general of the ANC at the first elective conference after it was unbanned.

Mandela announced publicly that Ramaphosa was his personal choice to be his deputy and successor, but that he was outvoted by his leadership colleagues. As compensation, the admiring Mandela offered him the job of foreign minister, which would have placed him number three after then deputy president Thabo Mbeki.

But Ramaphosa, who didn’t get on with Mbeki, declined and went off in a huff to make a fortune in business.

Had he not done so, he would have succeeded Mbeki in 2007 and been president by now. But he never showed any regret for his decision, which has made him the second-richest black person in SA after billionaire mining magnate Patrice Motsepe.

So why does he want to come back to politics now?

Why does he want to give up the chairmanship of Shanduka and McDonald’s and a dozen other directorships, the whole glamorous world of international business, to become deputy to a man he was ranked ahead of before and who is now widely regarded as the most inept leader the ANC has ever had?

What is in it for him?

Aye, that is the question! I cannot believe anyone with Ramaphosa’s talents, energy and ambition is prepared to be a wallflower in Zuma’s suite of presidential offices the way poor Motlanthe has been with visible frustration and unhappiness.

Not for the next seven years, anyway, at which point Zuma will complete his second term and Ramaphosa will inherit the presidential nomination for the 2019 election.

Ramaphosa’s belated acceptance of the nomination for the deputy presidency tells me the shrewd negotiator has been driving a bargain with Zuma.

It was KwaZulu-Natal that nominated him, which suggests Zuma was behind the initiative.

The fact that Zuma wanted him in the job, hopefully to give him success and a better legacy in his second and last term, would have put Ramaphosa in a strong negotiating position.

Had he withdrawn at the last minute, Zuma would have been in an awkward spot, having to accept one of the other nominees, Tokyo Sexwale or Mathews Phosa, both of whom are in the anti-Zuma camp.

So what is the bargain? That Ramaphosa can be the national candidate in 2014? I doubt that. Zuma wants that second term to repair his legacy, and he wants Ramaphosa to achieve that for him.

So my guess is that he will delegate considerable authority to his new deputy, while he himself adopts a more detached head-of-state role.

Of course Zuma, as president, would still have final executive authority. There was some speculation earlier about Ramaphosa becoming prime minister under Zuma, but the constitution makes no provision for that.

The president can only delegate authority to his deputy and his Cabinet ministers. How he intends doing that has, I suspect, been the subject of negotiations between the two men.

Of course, all of this is pure speculation on my part. But I cannot see why else Ramaphosa should have made such a leap backwards in his career history, or why Zuma would have wanted him to do so.

It is therefore a matter of conjecture, of fitting pieces of a political jigsaw puzzle together.

If I am right, and Ramaphosa does become an active deputy president as Mbeki was, it will be a matter of considerable importance to the country. For Ramaphosa was deputy chairman of the National Planning Commission that was appointed in May 2009, and whose widely acclaimed report setting out a long-term strategic and development programme for the country was presented to the government last June.

It struck me as significant that Zuma devoted so much of his opening address on Sunday to that National Development Plan and that he sounded positive about it.

He said the plan was still the work of the commission, but now was the time for the ANC to consider whether to adopt it.

Is this the overall game plan to break the gridlock, for Ramaphosa to become deputy president and drive the National Development Plan to give Zuma a successful second term and thus a burnished legacy? Maybe.

But, if so, why has Trevor Manuel announced that he is quitting his long membership of the ANC’s powerful national executive committee in tones that

carried a whiff of disillusionment and led to speculation that he is on his way out of politics altogether?

He was chairman of the National Planning Commission. Why would he want to leave the commission in his moment of triumph?

But then again, perhaps he is destined to become the project’s CEO.

Given the ANC’s habit of not allowing its candidates for leadership to campaign and explain their policies to the country at large for the people to judge, we simply don’t know.

All we can do is speculate.

19 December 2012 Business Day Page 7 Peter Bruce Man of action Ramaphosa good for Zuma SO JACOB Zuma gets a second term as party leader and, probably, as state president. And I am a few thousand rand out of pocket for rashly assuming, and betting earlier this year, that the African National Congress (ANC) had more sense. To be fair to Zuma, he has looked like a different person at this conference, commanding where once you would have expected him to ramble and giggle, and strong where you once would have expected him to be evasive.

But one swallow doesn’t make a summer and one conference doesn’t make a leader. Human nature would tell us that, at Zuma’s age, people don’t change and that after the conference we can expect more drift and confusion. His personal problems have not gone away and the problems confronting the economy he runs get more difficult and complex by the day.

The bright news is that he now has, in Cyril Ramaphosa, a man of proven principle and action as his deputy. I suppose it means Ramaphosa will become deputy president of SA as well. He will have no choice, really, because he will know he cannot survive the stark conflicts between holding high political office and running a large company in the private sector. He knows how to make things happen, even if you are not prepared to let the R18m bull bid go, and he will provide Zuma with the sort of credibility cover only the likes of Trevor Manuel still have to offer.

I guess we will have to sit back and see how things develop. I was amused to read that Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel had said something positive about the National Development Plan (NDP) that Manuel and Ramaphosa nursed into life over two years. I can only assume he felt that with

Manuel out of the way (or in the process of leaving), the NDP might in time be bent to look a lot more like the New Growth Path, but I suspect Ramaphosa is going to be both a champion and a guardian of the NDP.

I am among a privileged few to have heard and felt the wrath of Ramaphosa when he is truly angry. Some of you may remember me, as editor of the Financial Mail, endorsing Bantu Holomisa in the 1999 election, not long after Ramaphosa became a director of the Financial Mail’s publishing company. I can report that it wasn’t pleasant taking those calls from him.

Of course, as much as Ramaphosa can save Zuma, so can Zuma defile Ramaphosa if he is unable to wean himself off what appears to be a staple diet of financial dependency on friends of one kind or another, or business "associates" who see in the president an easy mark. Ramaphosa is putting a very carefully nurtured reputation on the line. Let’s hope he still has it in 2019.

IT WOULD be wrong, though, much as one welcomes Ramaphosa’s arrival in his new position, not to acknowledge the wonderful lesson in personal and political integrity delivered to the ANC by Kgalema Motlanthe. By deciding to contest only the presidency, he would have known he was fighting a lost cause and he may well now be relieved of his position as deputy president of the country. I hope the ANC leadership is not so stupid. The thuggery of Thabo Mbeki’s removal can surely not be repeated. Motlanthe gave the party the most precious gift he could yesterday — he gave it his political life and asked for nothing in return.

19 December 2012 Business Day Page 7 Editorial ANC must cement unity with action THE African National Congress (ANC) prides itself in being a "big-tent" organisation that represents the key characteristics and aspirations of the broadest possible section of society. Consequently, its gauge for the selection of leaders is that they should represent a balanced slate — something akin to a full spectrum of interest groups.

The result of elections yesterday moves the organisation forward in an important way — but it comes at a cost. Most significantly, but also unsurprisingly, President Jacob Zuma maintains his position as head of the party. The only real consequence of this vote is its emphatic nature; the president won with 75% of delegates supporting his candidature. This compares to the roughly two-thirds of the delegate body who voted for him at the ANC’s previous conference, at Polokwane.

Clearly, although many in society are critical of Mr Zuma’s leadership and his ethics, his deference to the wishes of the party has resonated with party delegates.

Society will have its own judgment of the president, but in terms of the party’s criteria, it has become obvious Mr Zuma has a notable blind spot: the urban middle class. He simply does not appeal to this grouping. His traditionalism runs counter to increasing aspirations of the urban middle class, and the Democratic Alliance has made startling inroads into this group.

The ANC is clearly hoping the election of trade unionist-turned-businessman Cyril Ramaphosa will help fill this gap. He brings with him the hopes of another constituency — business. The appeals of business leaders before the conference underlined a sense that business has had since the start of the Zuma administration: that their concerns were not only ignored but also fundamentally misunderstood.

Mr Ramaphosa is certainly not a representative of business in general; he has recently become a businessman, but he spent most of his life as a union organiser. But business will certainly feel less of a pariah grouping with Mr Ramaphosa, technically one of their own, formally present on the highest rungs of the organisation. Whether he ends up being an effective member of the executive, or ends up simply a placeholder, remains to be seen, but he undoubtedly brings a huge reputation and status to the executive.

Perhaps more pertinent, Mr Ramaphosa’s presence underlines the importance of the National Development Plan, particularly since he is Planning Minister Trevor Manuel’s deputy on the National Planning Commission. The plan constitutes the most detailed attempt to grapple with the problems in SA’s society. Mr Manuel’s decision to stand aside from election to the national executive committee means the baton has been handed to Mr Ramaphosa, and that may well be formalised in the near future. The plan received a ringing endorsement from Mr Zuma at the conference, which suggests Mr Ramaphosa intends to build it into policy more directly.

The election does, however, come with costs. Since it was fought on a slate basis, and since Mr Zuma’s slate has won so comprehensively, his control over the party is now emphasised. This is particularly noticeable since his old friend from KwaZulu-Natal, Zweli Mkhize, will now take over the party’s finances, and his former chief operating officer, Jessie Duarte, becomes deputy secretary-general. Whether that concentration of power is a good thing remains to be seen.

Perhaps one of the larger problems for the party, illustrated by at least the election of the top six posts, is the lack of a generational mix. As Business Day columnist and Eyewitness News reporter Stephen Grootes points out, none of the top six is younger than 55, despite the rallying call of Zuma opponents. For the ANC Youth League, the result is a setback, and for its charismatic former leader, Julius Malema, the result is particularly dire.

Overall, however, the party will feel its apex is stronger and more united. That strengthened position now needs to be translated into action or else it will mean little.

19 December 2012 Business Day Page 2 Carol Paton and Paul Vecchiatto Ramaphosa’s rise could bring conflicts of interest

NOW that Cyril Ramaphosa is both the second-most powerful politician and second-wealthiest black man in South Africa it can be expected that soon he will face a situation where these two roles come into conflict.

However, as an African National Congress (ANC) official who is not a public representative or a member of the executive within the government, there are no mechanisms through which these conflicts could be managed. ANC officials are not required to declare their business interests to the party, either publicly or privately.

But should Mr Ramaphosa be asked to serve in the government, he would have to abide by both Parliament’s disclosure requirements and the executive code of ethics.

The past year has seen a dramatic escalation of Mr Ramaphosa’s wealth. From last year to this year his worth rose 39% to R3.1bn. This is according to the Sunday Times Rich List, which measures wealth on the basis of an individual’s holdings in listed companies.

A glance at the holdings of Shanduka, in which the Ramaphosa Family Trust owns 30%, reveals a large and diverse range of interests across almost every sector. In the financial sector, these include holdings of 1.2% in Standard Bank, where Mr Ramaphosa is also a director, 7.8% in Alexander Forbes and 1.5% in the Liberty Group.

Shanduka also owns 0.54% of industrial holding company Bidvest, with varied interests including vehicle dealerships. In the telecoms sector, Shanduka has interests in both South Africa and Nigeria, the fastest growing mobile communications market in the world. The interests include 0.45% of MTN SA and about 5% of MTN Nigeria. It also has a 32.7% interest in a cellphone tower building operation in Nigeria — Helios Towers — and 12.5% in Seacom, which constructs undersea cables.

The MTN Nigeria deal, concluded last month, had the markets buzzing partly out of envy, but also over concerns about several conflicts of interest. MTN Nigeria is the most profitable part of MTN on the continent.

The highlighted conflicts of interest include that Mr Ramaphosa is chairman of MTN Group, the majority owner of the Nigerian operation. But the company has said Mr Ramaphosa excluded himself from all the discussions relating to Shanduka’s purchase of shares in MTN Nigeria.

Shanduka has interests in mining, including 50% of Incwala Resources. Further, it is an empowerment partner to platinum miner Lonmin, in which it holds 5%, owns a stake in Pan African Resources and has a coal mining subsidiary Shanduka Coal.

Its other interests are in MacSteel Services Centres and it owns a 42% stake in paper and packaging company Mondi Shanduka.

In the energy sector, it has investments in a Mozambican gas-power plant and in both wind and solar energy generation in South Africa.

Most well known to the public is Mr Ramaphosa’s 70% holding in McDonald’s SA and 70% in one of three bottling plants for Coca-Cola.

With such a vast network of investments, it is inevitable that Mr Ramaphosa will find himself running into conflicts of interest.

After Mr Ramaphosa was elected, Congress of South African Trade Unions general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi on Tuesday tweeted that the federation had strict disclosure rules. "If an elected leader has business interests, he must place them in a trust and not be active while in business.

"Family members must also not do business with the institution you lead."

19 December 2012 Business Day Page 1 Sam Mkokeli and Natasha Marrian ‘Boost for business’ in Ramaphosa comeback

PRESIDENT Jacob Zuma retained the African National Congress (ANC) presidency in a landslide victory on Tuesday that confirmed his popularity in the ruling party.

The results of the ANC’s leadership elections were widely welcomed on Tuesday, with the business sector and the financial markets rejoicing at the election of businessman Cyril Ramaphosa as Mr Zuma’s deputy.

The rand extended gains to a more than two-month high, firming to R8.52/$ after the announcement of the election results.

Analysts and business leaders said the choice of the billionaire businessman and former mining union leader as deputy president would make the ANC a more business-friendly party.

Mr Ramaphosa received the most votes among the party’s top six leadership positions, with 3,018 delegates supporting him.

Other businessmen vying for positions did not do as well — Mathews Phosa received 470 votes, while Tokyo Sexwale got 463. Mr Zuma got 2,983 votes, while his only challenger, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, had 991 after 3,977 delegates voted overnight at the ANC’s national conference in Mangaung.

While Mr Zuma struck a conciliatory tone in a speech shortly after the announcement of the results, Mr Motlanthe turned down nomination to serve as an additional member of the party’s national executive committee, suggesting that he no longer has the appetite to serve in the ANC’s top structures.

Candidates who do not win positions in the ANC’s "top six" are automatically nominated for additional membership of the national executive committee.

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe retained his position, trumping Sports and Recreation Minister Fikile Mbalula with 3,058 votes to 901.

Deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte was elected unopposed. Chairwoman Baleka Mbete was re-elected, obtaining 3,010 votes. She was challenged by former ANC deputy secretary-general Thandi Modise, who received only 939 votes.

KwaZulu-Natal Premier Zweli Mkhize comfortably trounced Gauteng ANC chairman Paul Mashatile for the position of treasurer-general, with 2,988 votes to Mr Mashatile’s 961.

Mr Zuma appealed for unity following the contested leadership election, asking delegates to treat each other with respect, irrespective of who they voted for.

"We agreed for members to have preferences. That is their democratic right.... Don’t just pay lip service to that, you must put it into practice," he said.

"We agreed that contestation is part of our democratic culture. Once elections take place and ANC branches have spoken ... the decision is the decision of all of us," Mr Zuma said. "We begin here to advance the fundamental principle of the ANC, the unity of the ANC. You elected comrades to lead this organisation — it must be a united organisation."

Mr Motlanthe also addressed the conference on Tuesday, just before it was announced that he had turned down nomination to serve as a leader of the party.

He called on delegates to respect the ANC’s standing as an "epitome of democracy".

"We must continue to sharpen our ability to hear the cries of our people, attending to the economic challenges, unemployment, poverty and inequality," he said.

"Our leaders were elected by the entire membership of the ANC, and so we continue, we should keep that in mind."

He reminded the delegates that they worked "under the watch and guidance of a capable leadership we have just elected".

Black Business Council spokesman Sandile Zungu said on Tuesday it was "very happy" with Mr Zuma’s re-election, as it would ensure continuity in the government’s direction. He also welcomed Mr Ramaphosa’s election, saying he understood the nuances of leadership and the needs of a thriving business sector.

Mr Ramaphosa, who is also the deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, is expected to become South Africa’s deputy president after the national elections in 2014. Mr Motlanthe is likely to remain deputy president until the elections.

19 December 2012 Business Day Page 1 Sam Mkokeli ANC members must learn economics — Manuel

THE African National Congress’s (ANC’s) national conference must look for ways to implement aspects of the National Development Plan immediately, says Planning Minister Trevor Manuel.

It appears that the plan will be a big focus of the party over the next five years. It was a central theme of President Jacob Zuma’s speech when he opened the party’s Mangaung conference on Sunday.

Mr Manuel last week turned down nominations to serve on the ANC’s national executive committee, after being a member of the party’s most senior leadership structure for two decades. He presented the National Development Plan — a broad strategy to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality and drive economic growth — to delegates on Tuesday evening.

Mr Manuel said his presentation received an "overwhelming response" from the conference delegates. He was concerned that, because of time

constraints, the conference may not have enough time to discuss policy before it ends on Thursday.

Another concern was that the delegates’ approach to economic policy discussions tended to focus on "big ticket" issues, instead of basic ideas about job creation.

Mr Manuel said economic policy discussions in the ANC tended to be "sucked" into the wrong direction, because of a wrong orientation. "We beat each other up over the wrong things," he said.

He added that a lack of understanding of economic fundamentals sidetracked important debates. The party needed a broader approach, and conference delegates with appropriate skills, who could examine all the important factors when discussing policies.

"It’s like maskandi music. If you only listen to the bass, there’s no music. You need the guitar, the voices in there," Mr Manuel said.

"If you want economic policy, you can’t just listen to the bass — that’s all that macroeconomic policy is — you can’t do without it, but you need the fine sounds that come from a maskandi guitar and your voices to produce the sound."

Mr Manuel said the ANC needed to encourage its members to learn the basic fundamentals of economics to improve the economic debate. The party often discussed economic policy without considering the world outside its politics — which included international ratings agencies and fund managers.

Further, the ANC did not consider factors like a low savings ratio which hampered ambitious development plans.

Mr Manuel said conference delegates should not wait for the government to implement the development plan, but look for ways to drive its application in their branches and communities.

Welcoming the election of the top six leadership of the ANC on Tuesday, Business Unity SA (Busa) said the new leaders came on board at a time when the country was faced with critical challenges. These included declining confidence of the investment community, reflected by recent sovereign rating downgrades of South Africa.

Busa was also concerned about escalating levels of corruption and socioeconomic challenges such as increasing levels of inequality, joblessness and poverty.

"The time is now to get down to work, rebuild and reclaim lost ground as a matter of urgency," the organisation said.

"South Africa faces complex challenges and the mix of the new top six gives us confidence for the implementation of the National Development Plan, as well as the leadership needed in forging the much-needed country beneficial working relationships between all key social partners."

Meanwhile, there is speculation that Mr Manuel will quit the Cabinet next year.

While not giving anything away, he said: "A ministerial post is not meant to be for this length of time." He has been tipped as a contender for a top position at one of the multilateral finance institutions such as the World Bank, or the Brics bank which is planned to be launched in South Africa next year. Mr Manuel said he had not yet applied his mind about where he would go should he leave the government.

19 December 2012 The Times Page 15 S'Thembiso Msomi JZ needs rivals close

MINUTES after Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe lost dismally to President Jacob Zuma in the ANC leadership race yesterday, a seasoned party activist had this to say to me:

"Maybe Mkhuluwa [a term ANC members use to show their respect for a man they regard as an older brother] should have waited for 2017. I call him 'Hola 7' because he seems to make history only in the years that end with [a] seven."

He pointed out that Motlanthe was imprisoned on Robben Island for his underground ANC activities in 1977. He came out of prison in 1987.

In 1997, at the ANC's Mafikeng national conference, Motlanthe was elected secretary-general.

Exactly 10 years later, in 2007, delegates to the party's Polokwane national conference elected him deputy president.

"So I think he would have stood a greater chance of winning the ANC presidency in 2017 than now. All he needed to do was wait," said the activist, who has spent the past few months campaigning vigorously for Zuma.

Obviously, Motlanthe's defeat at the hands of his boss in the government cannot be explained away by the deputy president's decision to contest in a year that does not end with a seven - his allegedly lucky number.

But does this crushing defeat mean an end to Motlanthe's political career? Is he about to lose his job as the country's deputy president?

To the first question I would say not necessarily. It depends on what Motlanthe does between now and the next ANC national conference in 2017.

Lest we forget, Gwede Mantashe, the current ANC secretary-general, left the 2002 ANC national conference in Stellenbosch a humiliated man after failing to make it onto the list of additional national executive members.

Five years later, he was elected secretary-general and yesterday he was returned to office with 3058 votes - more than Zuma and his new ANC deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa, garnered.

So it is not a given that Motlanthe stands no chance at the next conference, especially as Zuma will not be running for office in 2017.

But it is the second question that seems to be exercising the minds of most people: Will Motlanthe still be the country's deputy president when Zuma delivers his next state of the nation speech?

As a man who seemed reluctant to take up the post when Zuma became the country's president in 2009, it would not be a complete surprise if he decided to resign.

But if his long-term ambition is still to become ANC president, resignation could backfire on him - the party's rank-and-file viewing him as a grumpy leader who could not stomach the decision of the majority.

His continued stay in the government is also dependent on what Zuma plans to do.

After such a resounding victory, it is tempting for a politician to start purging those who opposed him during the run up to an election.

So it is highly probable that Zuma will remove Motlanthe, Arts and Culture Minister Paul Mashatile, Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale and Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula - all of whom were opposed to his second-term bid - from his cabinet.

But if his remarks soon after his re-election yesterday are anything to go by, Zuma is unlikely to do so.

Speaking to delegates - who continued to sing anti-Motlanthe songs long after the election had been concluded - Zuma seemed keen not to repeat the Polokwane mistake, when the triumphalism of his supporters caused a split in the ANC.

With the next general elections less than 24 months away, and the ANC still nursing the wounds left by the 2008 breakaway by some of its members, who

went on to form COPE, Zuma is aware that his party cannot afford another split.

He needs Mashatile, who is also ANC chairman in Gauteng, to fight off the DA's bid to take over the province in 2014.

And, despite their differences, Zuma would be the first to acknowledge Mbalula's amazing ability to rally the young behind the ANC during elections.

In 2009, Sexwale's private jet came in handy as Zuma flew around the country campaigning. Well, now he has the presidential plane and wealthy Ramaphosa as his deputy.

Zuma's call for unity and reconciliation suggested that he was not about to do something that would cause further divisions in the already strife-torn political party.

But, then again, in September 2008 Zuma sounded very conciliatory towards President Thabo Mbeki a mere five days before engineering the latter's spectacular recalling from office.

However, it has never been Zuma's style to completely kick out his political rivals.

You really have to test his patience in the same way as expelled ANC Youth League boss Julius Malema to have Zuma remove you for political reasons.

He seems to enjoy keeping his rivals close enough for him to watch them squirm.

As Motlanthe prepares for his holiday break in the Seychelles after the Mangaung conference, he will be aware that life is about to become very uncomfortable for him and ministers Mashatile, Sexwale and Mbalula.

They now serve in the cabinet of a government completely at Zuma's mercy.

19 December 2012 The Times Page 5 Olebogeng Molatlhwa Motlanthe must retain his position: delegates

DEPUTY president Kgalema Motlanthe's position in the government hangs in the balance as party members debate whether to elect him back onto the ANC's national executive committee.

Minutes after the ANC elective conference yesterday announced that Motlanthe had lost to incumbent President Jacob Zuma for the top post, delegates expressed mixed feelings about Motlanthe's future.

Delegates interviewed by The Times from Eastern Cape, North West, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Gauteng said Motlanthe should be allowed to continue with his job as country's deputy president.

The delegates cautioned against the immediate removal of Motlanthe in favour of newly elected ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa.

They argued that the move would be viewed as a sign of triumphalism and would further divide the party.

Gauteng delegate Thulani Mphithekezi said those calling for Motlanthe's head should remember the resolutions taken at the party's 2002 conference in Stellenbosch in the Western Cape.

"The resolution at Stellenbosch was that the president of the ANC should then be [elected] the state president. That [resolution] does not have implications for the deputy president," he said.

KwaZulu-Natal delegate and Ilembe District Municipality mayor Sibusiso Mdabe said Motlanthe "has a role to play in the government".

He blamed Motlanthe's defeat on the forces of change group, that led his election campaign, saying they were unable to sell "whatever position they had to delegates".

"We don't want divisions. [Cyril Ramaphosa] will eventually become deputy president of the country [in 2014], so comrades must exercise patience," said Mpho Madubje of the Waterberg region in Limpopo.

"What we want is unity."

"It would be unbecoming [to remove Motlanthe from his position] because this outcome does not stop his term," Mandla Mapongwana of the Eastern Cape.

The ANC is yet to pronounce on Motlanthe's fate.

19 December 2012 The Times Page 5 Karl Gernetzky and Setumo Stone

Party's pinnacle of power

THE ANC yesterday elected its new leaders in Mangaung.

JACOB ZUMA

Jacob Zuma, 70, starts his second term as ANC president after 53 years of active politics in the organisation.

Zuma was first elected to the ANC national executive committee in 1977 and became deputy secretary-general in 1991, at the time in charge of underground structures and intelligence.

In December 1994 - and in 1996 - he was elected as national and KwaZulu-Natal chairman of the ANC.

He became ANC deputy president in 1997, but was dismissed in 2005 by then president Thabo Mbeki as the country's deputy president amid mounting public scrutiny following allegations of corruption. In 2007, at the Polokwane conference, Zuma unseated Mbeki. Zuma was found not guilty in a court case stemming from rape allegations. Charges of corruption were later dropped.

CYRIL RAMAPHOSA

Cyril Ramaphosa, 60, takes the position of deputy president with a degree of uncertainty over what role he will play after years away from the political spotlight and how he will continue managing his business interests.

An ANC national executive committee member since 1991, he served as secretary-general from 1991 to 1997, and was involved in negotiating the transition from apartheid.

After unsuccessfully contesting the party leadership in 1997 against Thabo Mbeki, Ramaphosa founded a multibillion-rand business empire.

After years of avoiding the limelight, he had given no public indication he would accept a high position at Mangaung, despite enjoying the majority of nominations from ANC leagues and provinces.

GWEDE MANTASHE

Gwede Mantashe, 67, begins his second term as secretary-general amid a continued battle for unity in the ANC, fighting the effects of factionalism and ill-discipline since the contentious 2007 Polokwane elective conference.

Mantashe held leadership positions in labour movements, including the NUM, for three decades.

After a failed attempt to be elected to the ANC's national executive committee in 2002, Mantashe defeated Mosiuoa Lekota to gain the position of secretary-general at the ANC's 2007 conference, following a strong push from Cosatu to unseat Mbeki.

BALEKA MBETE

Baleka Mbete, 63, has served in the ANC for three and a half decades, including in parliament and among the party's women. She has been a member of the national executive since 1994.

Mbete was speaker of the National Assembly from 2004 to 2008. She had been the deputy speaker for eight years.

At the Polokwane conference in 2007, Mbete pipped ANC intellectual Joel Netshitenzhe - who had been nominated by those supporting Mbeki - to the post to become national chairperson.

In September 2008 - following the decision by the national executive committee to recall Mbeki - Mbete was catapulted to the country's second-highest office, serving as deputy to then interim president Kgalema Motlanthe.

ZWELI MKHIZE

Zweli Mkhize, 56, KwaZulu-Natal premier and ANC provincial chairman, beat his counterpart in Gauteng, Paul Mashatile, to the position of treasurer-general.

His rise to the top six came under the growing membership of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal - the party's biggest province in terms of membership.

It is understood that some people in KwaZulu-Natal wanted Mkhize to focus on national politics so that new faces could take charge of government in the province.

JESSIE DUARTE

Jessie Duarte, 59, was unopposed for the position of deputy secretary-general.

The former ANC spokeswoman is widely seen in media circles as abrasive. Questions have been raised whether Duarte is likely to have a cordial working relationship with Mantashe, who is seen as equally aggressive.

In 2010, Duarte resigned as chief operations officer in Zuma's office amid allegations of a territorial battle with some of the senior staff in the Presidency.

19 December 2012 The Times

Page 4 Graeme Hosken and Thando Mgaga Blueprints for 'death plot'

HUNDREDS of documents on encrypted laptops of an alleged South African right-wing extremist group are the key to a mass assassination plot against the ANC's top executive, including President Jacob Zuma.

In three simultaneous raids carried out on farms and smallholdings in Gauteng, Northern Cape and Limpopo yesterday, Hawks officers seized laptops and files said to contain detailed plans and photographs outlining the alleged assassination plot in Mangaung.

The killings were allegedly to have happened on Monday, the second day of the ANC's elective conference. The documents are said to describe the planned robbery of gun shops, military bases and police stations. They detail how the suspects would allegedly use mortars, sniper rifles, machine guns and armoured vehicles in the assault, said to have targeted Zuma, the ANCs newly elected executive and conference delegates.

Yesterday's raids came after similar raids over the weekend in which police arrested Mark Trollip, 48; John Martin Keevy, 47; Johan Hendrik Prinsloo, 49, and Hein Boonzaaier, 51. The four appeared under heavy police guard in the Bloemfontein Magistrate's Court yesterday on charges of high treason and terrorism. As they appeared, police yesterday followed up on information on suspected weapons caches thought to contain hand grenades and mortars, but no caches were found.

Prinsloo and Boonzaaier are listed as executive members of the Federale Vryheidsparty, registered as a political party with the Independent Electoral Commission earlier this year.

The investigation, according to police sources, is looking at the suspects' alleged links to other extremist groups. A police source said "huge" information was gained from raids in Prieska, Modimolle and Springs, where the laptops were seized.

The source said officers discovered a suspected paramilitary training camp in Modimolle - where camouflage uniforms, military insignia and pellet guns used to train recruits were seized.

The plans, he said, showed how many people were needed for the attack, where weapons would be obtained and how police and soldiers responding to the assault would be fought off.

"Information shows the suspects - who are businessmen and farmers - have support from several quarters. Investigations are looking at who is supporting them and what kind of support they had."

Prosecutor Shaun Abrahams alleged the four, who were remanded in custody, and other right-wing extremists had worked on their "deadly" plan since January.

The case was postponed to January 8.

19 December 2012 The Times Page 1 Staff Unionist-turned-tycoon is now SA's second most powerful man

CYRIL Ramaphosa has, in a whirlwind of 24 hours, gone from being one of Africa's richest men to one of South Africa's most politically powerful citizens after being elected yesterday as deputy president of the ANC.

CYRIL Ramaphosa has, in a whirlwind of 24 hours, gone from being one of Africa's richest men to one of South Africa's most politically powerful citizens after being elected yesterday as deputy president of the ANC.

Last month, Forbes magazine estimated Rama-phosa's wealth at $675-million and put him at number 21 of 40 of the continent's wealthiest individuals.

Forbes ascribed his wealth to his Shanduka company's investments in mining company Assore, trading company Bidvest, Standard Bank, and a joint venture with Coca-Cola called Coca-Cola Shanduka Beverages, among others.

Ramaphosa, once at the helm of the National Union of Mineworkers, has of late been in the media spotlight, but not always for positive reasons.

In February, he, as chairman of the ANC's disciplinary committee of appeals, upheld a 2011 ruling against the ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema. In April, he earned the scorn of many when it became known that he made a bid for a buffalo that was later sold for R18-million.

Five months later, he admitted he had erred in bidding, saying he had been "blind-sighted".

In October, it emerged through a series of e-mails that he, as a shareholder in Lonmin, had urged the government, ANC and police to intervene and stop an illegal strike at the miner's Marikana operations.

This happened shortlybefore police opened fire on the strikers, killing 34 of them.

19 December 2012

The Times Page 1 Moipone Malefane, George Matlala and Thabo Mokone Out in the cold

DIVISIONS threatened to tear the ANC apart yesterday as supporters of newly re-elected party president Jacob Zuma demanded that he fire Kgalema Motlanthe as South Africa's deputy president.

Motlanthe - who has for 15 years served in key positions in the ANC - again surprised the Mangaung conference yesterday by turning down nomination to the party's national executive committee.

The day before he chose to contest only the party presidency, though the odds were heavily against him.

Last night, in an unscheduled speech to conference delegates, Motlanthe said: "I wish you strength and wisdom in uniting the ANC and its leagues, the alliance and, most important, all South Africans."

His spokesman, Thabo Masebe, said reports that Motlanthe was leaving government immediately should be treated as rumours.

"I'm not aware of this, he hasn't said anything to me. Treat them [tweets] as rumours. For now he remains the deputy president of the republic."

ANC spokesman Jackson Mthembu said the party had not been aware of Motlanthe's plan to decline nomination to the NEC. "It was between him and the electoral commission."

The reasons for Motlanthe turning his back on the ANC leadership - of which he has been both deputy president and secretary-general - were not clear last night.

But a source said on Monday that Motlanthe was not prepared to serve on ANC structures in which the party's constitution was being "misinterpreted". His decision is likely to harden the stance of Zuma's supporters.

"These people wanted to collapse the ANC; they went around saying [that] under Zuma the economy has collapsed," a Zuma lobbyist said.

Other leaders who might be axed include Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale, North West Premier Thandi Modise, Arts and Culture Minister Paul Mashatile and Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula.

Less than an hour after his re-election as ANC president was announced, Zuma appealed for unity.

"Once the ANC has spoken we have to look at how we treat one another . It's in the manner in which we interact [and] conduct ourselves [that] we begin to address one of the fundamental principles of the ANC, the unity of the ANC."

Those who accepted nomination to the NEC included Frank Chikane, former director-general in President Thabo Mbeki's office, and Winnie Madikizela-Mandela. Members of the ANC-led alliance who accepted nomination include Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini and Communist Party leaders Zokwana Senzeni, Thulas Nxexi, Blade Nzimande and Buti Manamela. The losers in the top six battle - including Sexwale, Mathews Phosa, Modise and Mbalula - are automatically considered nominees for the NEC unless they decline. - Additional reporting by BDlive and Sapa