global solar and green photonics - unc charlotte...and business model network choking big concern...

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association

Global solar and

green photonics: The role of optoelectronics in a

sustainable future

Michael LebbyPresident and CEO

OIDA

Michael Lebby ([email protected])

30mins and 5000 slides

OIDA

Green photonics

Decade markets

Solar opportunities

Summary


What’s hot today

(and will be hotter in

a decade?)


OIDA is broadening optoelectronics with

“Green photonics” opportunities

Technology Breadth

Value Chain

Service

Providers

Systems

Modules

Components

Sources: OIDA

Telecom

modules

Telecom

Devices

Sensing

Industrial

Devices

Green - Eco-System “Ecomation”

Green photonics systems and components

Home display, solar cell, lighting windows/panels

Telecom

Systems

Telecom

Carriers

Military

Spec

Devices

Medical &

High power

lasers

Lighting

Modules

Advanced

Materials

Nano/Bio

Packages

Sensing

Industrial

Modules

Lighting

Devices

Opportunities Active Presence

Solar &

Energy

Devices

Wireline/wireless carriers; Lighting architects;

Consumer services; media/content providers

Display

Devices

Solar &

Energy

Modules

Defense

Security

Modules

High Power

laser

modules

Common platforms for Green photonics…


‘Green photonics’ value chain

Established Distribution Channels & Partners

Innovative Business Models & Financing

New Photonic Based Energy Products & Systems Efficiency Enablers for Legacy & Alternative Energy

Scalable Manufacturing Tools & Enablers Sensors & Spectroscopy

Dis

pla

ys

Photonic Materials

So

lar D

evic

es &

Syste

ms

Lig

htin

g

Photonic Devices

Co

mm

un

ica

tion

s

Grid

Mo

nito

ring

& E

fficie

ncy

Ch

em

ica

l Op

timiz

atio

n

En

viro

nm

en

tal M

on

itorin

g&

Re

cyclin

g

Win

d T

urb

ine

s

Oil R

eco

ve

ry

Oil E

xp

lora

tion

Liq

uid

Flo

w M

on

itorin

g

Pa

rticu

late

Mo

nito

ring

Co

mb

ustio

n O

ptim

izatio

n

Established Distribution Channels & Partners

Innovative Business Models & Financing

New Photonic Based Energy Products & Systems Efficiency Enablers for Legacy & Alternative Energy

Scalable Manufacturing Tools & Enablers Sensors & Spectroscopy

Dis

pla

ys

Photonic Materials

So

lar D

evic

es &

Syste

ms

Lig

htin

g

Photonic Devices

Co

mm

un

ica

tion

s

Grid

Mo

nito

ring

& E

fficie

ncy

Ch

em

ica

l Op

timiz

atio

n

En

viro

nm

en

tal M

on

itorin

g&

Re

cyclin

g

Win

d T

urb

ine

s

Oil R

eco

ve

ry

Oil E

xp

lora

tion

Liq

uid

Flo

w M

on

itorin

g

Pa

rticu

late

Mo

nito

ring

Co

mb

ustio

n O

ptim

izatio

n

Green…broad impact in photonics


Examples of ‘Green photonics’ applications

All segments poised for strong growth

TechnologyUnderlying

TechnologyApplication Impact

PhotovoltaicsxSi, pSi, aSi, CdTe,

CIS, CIGS

Power

generation

Renewable energy, reduced carbon

emissions, reduced pollution

Solid State Lighting LEDs, OLEDsIllumination,

Displays

Reduced energy consumption, reduced

mercury pollution

Ultraviolet Disinfection UV LEDsWater

purification

Improved drinking water quality, reduced

mercury pollution

High Efficiency Optical

Transceivers

VCSELs, PIN

detectors, Si

electronics

IT data centers

MilitaryReduced energy consumption

Optical SensorsFiber optics, Bragg

gratings, Detectors

Gas sensing,

environmental

monitoring,

Reduced energy consumption, Reduced

pollution, Reduced green house gas emission

Low Power Displays

OLEDs, LEDs, MEMs,

Electrophoretics,

LCDs

Information and

Entertainment

Display

Reduced energy consumption

Green Optoelectronic

ManufacturingMany Many

Reduced energy consumption, reduced water

consumption, Reduced pollution, Reduced

green house gas emission Source: OIDA


In a decade…

a truly ‘green’ vehicle with LEDs and solar panels

It’s not a small footprint (…a smelly one)

Sources: Philips Lumileds, OIDA, George Craford

Pennsylvania, USA (with battery and solar cell)


OLED displays (green) have caught imagination of the public…

OLED displays have been

demonstrated and applied in many

product categories

The performance attributes of OLED

displays – thinness, high contrast, high

response speed, … allow designers to

differentiate their product

Sources: Sony, Nokia, iRiver

Organic LED…so we don’t use pesticide

Sources: Phil Wright, OIDA


Copper cables

Active Optical

Cables

Next generation data flow

Green design saves tons of energy

Sources: OIDA member companies, IBM, Intexys


Global market share 10yr forecast for lighting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Photonic (SSL) Lighting Devices

Incand/Other

FL

Photonic lighting forecast over next decade

SSL will grow to ~30% of lighting market by 2018

Will the G8 ban Incand/Mercury in 5yrs?


Impact of photonic lighting

USA electricity consumption trends

1980 2000 2020

1,000

10,000

11

110

~5x

~3x

~1.5%/yr

US EnergyE

qu

iva

len

t P

rim

ary

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

Qu

ad

s/y

r)

US Electricity

with

SSL

US LightingEle

ctr

icit

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

TW

h/y

r)

Year

Adapted from M Kendall and M Scholand,

"Energy Savings Potential of SSL

in General Lighting Applications"

(U.S. DOE-OBT study by AD Little, 2001),

and EIA Statistics.

1980 2000 2020

1,000

10,000

11

110

~5x

~3x

~1.5%/yr

US EnergyE

qu

iva

len

t P

rim

ary

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

Qu

ad

s/y

r)

US Electricity

with

SSL

US LightingEle

ctr

icit

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

TW

h/y

r)

Year

Adapted from M Kendall and M Scholand,

"Energy Savings Potential of SSL

in General Lighting Applications"

(U.S. DOE-OBT study by AD Little, 2001),

and EIA Statistics.

US Electricity Consumption Trends and the Role of Solid State Lighting

Source: Jeff Tsao, Sandia National Laboratories

Green design with LEDs: big impact


Global trends


Oil pricing trend (leverage?)

Will the demand be cyclical again?

Source: WTRG economics

Below $70: will demand shrink?


Global trends

Global electricity

demand to increase

50% by 2025

1.6%/yr for

industrial world

3.6%/yr for

developing world

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Billi

on

s (

peo

ple

)

Year

ICA

PP

04

1850 1900 1950 2050 21002000

6.4

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

ICA

PP

04

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

1850 1900 1950 2050 21002000

Year

13

31

Sources: Bechtel

Opportunity: new generation technologies


Global solar generation trends

Capacity out grows installations over 2X

OIDA Global solar generation decade forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Po

wer

gen

era

tio

n (

GW

)

PV Installations

PV capacity

OIDA global solar generation decade forecast, 2001-2019

Sources: NREL, EPIA, Photon Consulting, European Commission, IOA, OIDA, EREC, IEA, NEDO, WBG

150GW+ implies strong G8 investment


Power hogs…

USA 2nd (below Canada) in electricity use

General movement to the right

Sources: UN human development index and electricity use 1999


When the sun shines…

Small area can supply our energy needs

Sunlight reaching earth in 1hr is enough for 1 year

Lots of sun hitting the planet…

~3 TW to meet USA needs

Sources: Kurtz NREL


Solar farms begin…

Driven by Europe and Asia today

Solar tower 200MW of power

Source: Eric Weisoff, Greentechmedia

Reflecting technology projects


4 on-grid generation sites(>34MW)

Four Centralized On-Grid Photovoltaic Power Generation Sites Totaling More than 34 MW

Sources: Sunpower

Many examples of big projects


Can USA be put back on a track of reduced electric use?

Could solar make an impact?

Sources: UN human development index and electricity use 1999


USA wakes up…is it too late?

USA state renewable

energy programs

Includes solar and other

(Sept 2007)

Is there enough

momentum to survive

oil pricing turbulence?

Source: www.dsireusa.org

Will the new Gvt accelerate this trend?


Will the plant be powered by renewable

energy?

2050?

2100?

If ever?

Sources: Kurtz NREL

Important issue in public minds…


Lifestyle trends


Once we anticipate future

lifestyle needs, we then have

to see if future technology and

products can support those

needs…

Helps us prepare ourselves..


Dick Tracy cartoon character

1946 – two-way wrist radio

1964 – wrist TV

Is realizing these concepts green?

2046 – implanted?

2064 – perpetual?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dt2wrr.jpg


In a decade…our communicator will be part of our life…

Consumer

Electronics

TV

Camera/Camcorder

DVD

LED/Lighting

Bio/Medical

Cell phone

Photonics will support our lifestyle

Computer

Laptop

Tablet

Pocket

Desktop

Peripherals

Print

Store

Virtual

Keyboards

GPS

Communication

Telco

Data

Cable

Storage Networks

FTTP

Chip-to-chip

Camera flashFlash/signal light

Sources: OIDA, Philips, RIM, Digital Optics, Sony Ericsson, HP, Siemens, Apple, OIDA members

Highest bandwidth to

human brain


Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle

Social lifestyle personal lifestyle

Before

Computer centric

Experts level

Data exchange

Today

Network centric

Trained level

Archieval/access

Future

User centric

Pedestrian level

KnowledgeableSource: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT

LANPANBAN: lifestyle evolves…


In less than a decade…personal informational medic will be part of our life…

Tricorder (web definition) “A scanning device used for Medical,

Geological, Biological, Radiological, Technological, Positronic, Neurological, and many other types of scans. hand held, portable, and accurate.”

Triquarter (web definition) “A Triquarter used for medical purpose. It has

attached to it a cellular scanner and has the ability to scan for injuries, internal bleeding, organ damage and status, biological data, vitals, chemistry data, microscopic scans, neural activity.”

Medical data management/access & mobility

Sources: Paramount, www.angelfire.com

Green medical world: virtualization


Communications

Photonics


Video on Demand (VOD) + IPTV is the biggest

change in TV since color

How many of us see going back to Black & White TV?

Today‟s change to High Definition TV resolutions is minor compared to TV‟s

change to interactivity via Personal Video Recorders, Interactive TV & VODSource: Cisco

is this the killer app…?


Filling the pipes with data…

Triple / Quad play services

HDTV, high speed internet, VoIP and wireless

Content on-demand

YouTube.com

Nico Nico Douga (Japan YouTube)

iTunes

Slingbox (3x bandwidth)

Migration of Mobile Carriers to 3G

Mobile TV

New Content Service Providers

Google, Yahoo, Virgin, MSN….

Finding new uses for the internet…

Sources: Nico nico douga, google, skype, microsoft, youtube, JDSU

http://www.youtube.com/


A new popular vehicle…YouTube

YouTube statistics…

50 petabytes/month as of mid-2007

Approximately 7% of USA Internet traffic

All original broadcast and CATV and radio content adds to ~100

petabytes/yr

YouTube streams that much data in 2 months

YouTube and competitors in infancy

And the worry…

HD version of YouTube may exceed total USA internet traffic…

Sources: Gilder OFC, CIPS, OIDA members

Not another hurricane…

http://www.youtube.com/


YouTube vehicles…

Early adopter user profiles (wrt iPhones)

51% have watched a YouTube video

46% have watched a music video

34% have watched the news

GUI (graphical user interface) is popular

Television is taking off (CTIA April 2008)

Mobility is key

Younger generation concept of

– “Personal and private space”

– Must have a display and audio…

Sources: AT&T, Verizon

Medical is on the next wave


Mobile industry concerns

Open networks and devices

Loss of control (and revenue)

Virus, security

Becoming “bit pipes”

Monetizing (who will get the financial benefit of openness

Applications

Advertising (Qtrax example of free music downloads)

Entertainment

Apple is pointing the way to more open networks and devices

by …

first entering the market with a closed device and …

then opening the platform to applications developers …

all the while maintaining control and extending their own market

and business model

Network choking big concern also

Sources: OIDA, WRT Associates, LLC (Phil Wright), Apple, Salesforce.com

“Mobile Carriers concerned that open networks and

devices will erode their ownership of the customer”


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Wir

ele

ss S

ub

scri

bers

(M

illi

on

s)

Other Asia/Pac

Japan

Indonesia

India

China

Asia demand for low cost handsets

Highest growth in developing markets (BRIC)

Indian and China forecast >1.5B subscribers by 2018

Growth of Four Largest Wireless Service Markets by Subscriber in Asia

Sources: TIA, OIDA

Asia will drive new trends in wireless

Including USA and Europe ~5B subscribers


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pe

rce

nt

of

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

5 Mpixel and Up

3 Mpixel and Up

2 Mpixel

1.3 Mpixel

VGA

Camera communicators will be key

By 2010, over 500M camera phones

RIM blackberry popular without camera (Gvt use)

Trend in Camera Phone Resolution

Sources: IC Insights, OIDA

DSC platform…with wireless auxillary


In a decade: network choking will be

common-place (traffic jams)…

Source: K. Cambron, AT&T Labs

We’re using more bandwidth…


Datacom transceiver forecast

Parallel for „short fat pipes‟ emerges quickly

Sources: KMI, Infonetics, Ovum-RHK, OIDA member companies, TIA, IDC, CIR, Gartner, Dell’Oro, Aventis, Prudential Equity, OIDA estimates

Datacom transceiver forecast by form factor 2004 to 2017

$39 $75 $94$222 $240 $265 $294 $327 $365 $369 $378 $379 $374 $361 $342

$148 $162 $193

$226 $259$295

$338$391

$447 $461 $481 $492 $495 $489 $475

$91$105

$129

$161$183

$215$256

$305

$358 $380$408 $431 $449 $463 $472

$1$18

$32

$55$90

$136

$193

$262

$337$357

$387 $408 $420 $423 $416

$6$31

$54

$125

$206

$306

$421

$544

$692$772

$836$886 $916 $926 $916

$90$93

$103

$116

$145

$205

$240

$285

$346

$381

$404

$440$475 $502 $516

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$M

Parallel

SFP+/XFP

XPAK/X2

XENPAK

SFP

SFF

Parallel enables 40G80G120G


100Gbps and beyond…

Confidence:

We will fill up the bandwidth just like we fill-up disk space

and memory…

It’s fasten your seat-belt time…

Source: Y2U.co.uk, Ciena


Potential impact of Green photonics

Last 3yrs - Optoelectronics industry wants „green‟ solutions Vehicle for growth, and maintaining present growth

Potential for growth is attracting capital flow Federal, state, local governments

Investment banks/houses

Venture capitalists

Optoelectronics industry is now adopting „green goals‟ and employing „green manufacturing‟ practices

Caveat Emptor! „Faux Green‟

– What is real or what is imaginary?

Green will be a lifestyle…


System evolution to choking…

1990s

2.5-10 Gb/s

channel rate

8,16, 40

Channels

20-160 Gb/s

Capacity

SE = .025-.05

History

2000

10 Gb/s

channel rate

100

Channels

1 Tb/s

Capacity

SE = 0.2

History

2010

100 Gb/s

channel rate

100 channels

10 Tb/s

Capacity

SE = 2.0

Near Future

2020

1 Tb/s !

channel rate

100

Channels

100 Tb/s

Capacity

SE = 20 !

Needed

Even with this aggressive 2020 target, traffic growth

will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10

SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing

Source: R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

Traffic >> capacity by 10X in 2020


Traffic-jams are

coming…


Overall photonics

market for the

decade…


OIDA (USA) vs OITDA (Japan) 10year forecast for global enabled and

component optoelectronics

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ B

illi

on

s

OITDA 10yr forecast

OIDA Enabled + Components

OIDA vs OITDA OE markets

OIDA 2007-2018 CAGR 6.8%

OITDA 2007-2015 CAGR 10.6%

Prospects of OE World Market (billion USD)

50.9167.3

13.6

84.5

134.5

45.5

176.4

275.5

94.5

106.4

139.1

68.2

39.1

72.7

14.5

18.2

65.5

2.7

44.5

73.6

18.2

21.8

40.9

6.4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2002 2010 2015

264

544

968

AAGR=10.9%

AAGR=12.1%

50.9167.3

13.6

84.5

134.5

45.5

176.4

275.5

94.5

106.4

139.1

68.2

39.1

72.7

14.5

18.2

65.5

2.7

44.5

73.6

18.2

21.8

40.9

6.4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2002 2010 2015

264

544

968

AAGR=10.9%

AAGR=12.1%

Medical Care / Welfare

Environment / Sensing

Optical (Solar) Energy

Processing

Input & Output

Display / Lighting

Optical Memory

Info-Communications

Medical Care / Welfare

Environment / Sensing

Optical (Solar) Energy

Processing

Input & Output

Display / Lighting

Optical Memory

Info-Communications

Both forecast >> $1T OE enabled business

Sources: OIDA, OITDA

Initial draft forecast:

Awaiting peer review


Global enabled optoelectronics decadal forecast

(products/systems)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ B

illio

ns

Consumer display/TV

Environmental/Sensing

Medical care/Welfare

Communications

Computing/Processing

Transportation

Solar

Defense

Photonics enabled products & systems

3 big segments emerge: display/TV, PC, solar

All 8 segments benefit: green photonics

Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA

Display/TV

Solar

Computing



Dog-leg slowing


Global optoelectronics components market and decadal forecast

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ B

illi

on

s

Solid state lighting

Optical lens and laser

Optical fiber comm

Optical storage

Optical I/O devices

Flat panel displays

Optical components

Global photonics components market

Growing from $345B in 2007 to $608B in 2018

FPD big driver CAGR 5.5%; SSL still best growth CAGR 49%

Photonic Lighting big opportunity

Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA

FPD

Photonic Lighting


Awaiting peer reviewOptical Components

Optical I/O devices

Optical storageOptical lens & laser

Optical fiber communications


Display decadal forecast by type 2005 to 2018

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Reven

ues (

$M

illio

ns)

CRT

Other

OLED

Plasma

LCD

Display trends over next decade

Sources: OIDA, Display Search, iSupply, Displaybank, Corning

What will be the killer app for OLEDs?

OLEDs expected to

grow into huge

opportunity

a-Si TFT becoming

the silicon (Vs

GaAs) of displays

OLEDs are going

head-to-head with a-

Si TFT (tough battle


Ratio of HBLED to OLED in enabled lighting market over next

decade

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Perc

en

tag

e (

%)

OLED

HBLED

Photonic lighting market

Growth of OLED lighting forecast to 10% by 2018

Main issue will not be spec‟s but will be COST!

OLED cost structures still too high…


Where has the value gone?

Both segments follow linear growth trends over decade

Nondiode share grows to 54% by 2017

Revenue Comparison Diode vs. Nondiode Laser

Performance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Re

ve

nu

e (

$B

illio

ns

) Diode

Nondiode

Linear (Diode)

Linear (Nondiode)

ASP erosion in diodes expected to be high

Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, Laser Focus, OIDA consultants


Worldwide laser diode market history from 1996

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Reven

ue (

$k) Other

Optical Storage

Telecom

total

Diode lasers will struggle to grow revenue

Telecom experiencing margin erosion

Optical storage squeezed out by flash

Telecom and storage entering maturity?



Diode laser revenues by application

Where is the new cash cow?

Diode laser revenues by segment

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

2005 2006 2007 2008

Re

ve

nu

es

($

k)

Diode Pump Lasers

Other

Sensing

Barcode Scanning

Inspection, Measurement, Control

Image Recording

Entertainment

Optical Storage

Telecom

Basic Research

Instrumentation

Medical

Materials Processing


Optical storage will continue to suffer margin erosion

Diode pump lasers grow 62.8% in 2006 over 2005


Solar – is this the

time for sunrise?


Solar technology is 19th Century…

1839: PV effect recognized by French physicist Alexandre-Edmond Becquerel

1883: Charles Fritts first solar cell (Se/Au for 1% eff)

1946: Russell Ohl patented modern solar cell design

1954: Bell Labs noticed doped s/c were sensitive to light

1958: Hoffman electronics (9%), 1960 (14%)

1985: University of South Wales (20%)

1994: NREL using GaInP/GaAs (30%)

2006: Boeing-spectrolab (40.7%)

2008: NREL (40.8%)

NB: Uof Delaware claimed 42.8% in 2007Telstar 1962

Russell Ohl

Becquerel

Sources: NREL, Wikiepedia, Gourdin, OIDA

Now realizing the huge investment…


A solar bubble?

Rapid growth in PV modules is predicted

Production for 2012 is being sold today based on the

output of manufacturing facilities that have not yet been

built.

Revenues from these advance sales are being used to

finance the production facilities needed.

Source: EPIC, OIDA, IOA

Looks and feels like the dotcom bubble


Global solar decade forecast

Market expected to approach $160B in 2019

OIDA Global solar decade forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Rev

en

ue

(U

S$

Billi

on

s)

Others services

Installation

Other components

Inverter

Module

Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA, CLSA, Photon Consulting

Will the mkt mature in a decade?




PV industry historic perspective

Majority Si for roof-

tops

PV electricity

<0.1% today

With growth

>5% in 2020

Growth as per LCD

displays 100X+

May well be bigger

than displays…

Sources: Photon International, Rogol, NREL

Industry doubled every 2yrs

Global history of PV distribution (to 2007)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

So

lar

ge

ne

rati

on

(G

W)

Germany

RoEurope

Japan

RoAsia

USA

RoW


Global distribution of PV markets

Global distribution of PV markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

So

lar

ge

ne

rati

on

(G

W)

Germany

RoEurope

Japan

RoAsia

USA

RoW

Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA

USA not expected to lead this field




Europe


11 megawatt plant in Serpa, Portugal

Project led by GE

52 000 panels

200 watts each

Project cost: 75

million euros

Installed in 6

months

Operational since

Jan 2007

Cover the land…

Sources: EPIC, eupvplatform.org, EPIA


PV Project in Alentejo, Portugal

Output power of 116 megawatts, 10 times larger

Located in a former copper mine in Alentejo (southern)

The new station would be several times the size of what is now the world's largest solar energy plant.

A consortium led by Siemens plans to erect 116 hexagonal clusters of solar panels.

A German manufacturer of solar panels has said it also plans to build a factory at the site, bringing 250 permanent jobs to one of the poorest regions of Europe.

Investment would total €426m

116MW – plants are scaling up

Sources: EPIC, eupvplatform.org, EPIA


6.3MW solar park in Germany

Germany quick to harness alternative energy sources

Source: Eric Weisoff, Greentechmedia

Bigger than the towns…


Japan


Japanese solar cells last 3 decades

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Ph

oto

vo

ltaic

Cells P

rod

ucti

on

（b

illio

n Y

en

）

$5B Supply

shortage

Sources: OITDA, IOA

Business taken-off last decade


Japanese PV output by destination

for Domestic:

268.2 MW

Am

ou

nt

of

Sh

ipm

en

t （

MW

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

OITDA and JPEA (Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association)

for Export:

603.5 MW

Sources: OITDA, IOA, JPEA

Japan positioned well in global mkt


Installed PV power in IEA countries

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

DEU

JPN

USA

Others in IEA-PVPS countries

Cu

mu

lati

ve i

nsta

lled

PV

po

wer

(MW

)

Sources: OITDA, IOA, IEA-PVPS

Installations charts all talk of GW now…


Global solar cell decade trends

Growth rates are expected to slow in the next 2yrs

OIDA Global solar cell decade forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Re

ve

nu

e (

US

$B

illi

on

s)

Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA, CLSA, Photon Consulting

ASP erosion, lots of competition




Global solar module decade trends

Wafers and silicon technology will be strong components

OIDA Global solar module decade forecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Re

ve

nu

e (

US

$B

illi

on

s)

Cell

Wafer

Silicon and other

feedstocks


Margins will tighten over decade




Drive to efficient module costs

Learning curve manf costs: C-Si, thin films, concentrators

PV module decade cost curve trends

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Av

era

ge

ma

nf

co

st

($/W

p)

Average solar manf cost(NREL)

Expected cost (OIDA)

PV module decade cost curves, 1991-2019

Sources: NREL, Ward-ABRe, EPIA, Photon Consulting, OIDA

Industry ‘ripe’ for low cost redesigns

Just like datacom transceivers

low cost redesigns


Solar silicon wafer thickness trends

Goal of <100um wafer for solar will be achieved

Silicon wafer thickness trends

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Th

ick

ne

ss

(u

m)


Thin film will provide competitive drive


Silicon semiconductor usage

Solar usage is expected to surpass 50% in 2008…

Silicon Useage by Sector - 2005

Solar Industry

46%

Electronics

Sector

54%

Silicon Usage by Sector - 2006E

Solar Industry

49%

Electronics

Sector

51%

Sources: CLSA Asia-Pacific Market Estimates

Minimizing silicon is key…


Global solar decade technology trends

Thin film grows from ~10% today to ~ 50% in 2019OIDA Global decade technology forecast

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ribbon sheet c-Silicon

CIS/CIGS

Mono c-Silicon

Multi c-Silicon

CdTe

a-Silicon

Sources: NREL, EPIA, Photon Consulting, European Commission, IOA, OIDA

Industry is embracing thin film…




Concentrator technology

comes of age…


Where are we going in CPV?

Why use concentration?

Reduced use of semiconductor material

Challenges:

Cell efficiency, cost, reliability, handling, mounting

System integration

Status of industry- – movement towards vertical integration?

Cell suppliers

High-concentration CPV companies using multi-junction

Low-concentration CPV companies lower cost at lower concentration

Other aspects of supply chain

Sources: NREL, OIDA

Concentrator economics now important


Why bother with concentrators?

Reduce the amount of expensive semiconductor material

Using silicon as the example:

Silicon cells can run to about 70% to 80% of the module cost!

Concentrator

Cost balanced by design/optics

MJ (and more expensive optics)

Sources: NREL

Solar cell

Thin Film


Typical CPV systems

Dish requiring active cooling

Energy directed at focal point

Micro-dishes

On-board passive cooling

– With heat pipes

Avoids shading

Array of Fresnel lenses

Focus light onto small cells

Heat distributed: passive cooling

Sources: NREL

Huge variety of innovative designs


Why use multi-junction solar cells?

Highest efficiency

Absorb each color with a material band gap equal to the photon energy

Means different material for different color band gap engineering

5x1017

4

3

2

1

0

Sola

r spect

rum

43210

Photon energy (eV)

Band gapof 0.75 eV

5x1017

4

3

2

1

0

So

lar

sp

ect

rum

43210

Photon energy (eV)

Band gapof 2.5 eV

Performance driven by band gap eng

Power = I x V

Low band gap

Lots to absorb

High I, Low V

High band gap

Less to absorb

High V, Low I

Sources: Kurtz NREL


Quad multi-junction device

Commercially 3 to 4 junctions

Multiple materials to emulate the

solar spectrum

Blue light absorbed by high band

gap material

Passes lower energy light

Device sorts the light

Lower energy light at the top

in

4 5 6 7 8 91 2 3 4

Energy (eV)

Key is epi competence (5/6 MJ coming)

Sources: Kurtz NREL


NREL with latest world record

40.8% by Geisz

(MJ: 1 sun)

MJ slope highest expect 45% soon

Source: NREL


MJ modular cell designed for quality

Most common designed MJ cell today

Both lattice matched and mis-matched varieties to Ge substrates

Mis-matched: Spectralab („07) structure achieved 40.7%

Lattice matched version: 36/37% typical (Emcore 39%)

Ge bottom cell

and substrate

Grade

GaInAs middle cell

GaInP top cell 1.8 eV

1.3 eV

0.7 eV

Sources: King – Spectralab, NREL

Modular design will permit higher %


Inverted MJ cell (new approach)

Grow device upside down

Best result: 40.8% @ 325 suns

Easier to grade to larger

lattice constant, gives lower

band gap (flexibility)

Substrate reuse cost

advantage (Ge alternative)

Easier route to 50% device

Handling issue (thin film)

Material usage lower gm/Watt

– Assume substrate reuseGaInAs bottom

cell

Grade

GaAs middle cell

GaInP top cell 1.8 eV

1.3 eV

0.9 eV

Sources: Geisz NREL

High efficiency means small PDA product


Adapting from space to terrestrial

Manual test/mount

4” wafer, big cell

Auto test/mount

4” wafer small cell

0.1 W/sq cm 50 W/sq cm

Sources: Geisz NREL

Drive to automated testing…

Sunlight is now concentrated:

Series R heat issue


Bonding is major issue for industry…

Low cost – need automation and advanced testing Bonding to optics important

(50W/sq cm)

Heat sink – temp cycling important

Most cell companies not interested in assembly… Optics companies don‟t have

experience in mounting cells

Major players: core skills Emcore, Spire, Spectralab,

Delta

Cell

Heat sink

Concentrator

Cell assembly needs to be engineered

Optical bond 100% T

~50W/sq cm

Electrical contactElectrical Isolation

Small T (<10C)

Sources: Kurtz NREL


Grand challenges in CPV systems

Cell assembly and system integration

Current status:

System determines receiver design, so every CPV system may

need new design

Need automated cell mounting

Receiver designs must be carefully tested

The need for custom-designed receivers (and their integration

with the optics) is acute today…

Who should do this? cell supplier, system integrator, other?

Sources: Kurtz NREL

Many opportunities for start-ups…


Industry needs (presently)

Substrates (Ge; could be GaAs in future)

Optics

Structural materials

Heat sinks

Electrical isolation

Alignment tools

Trackers

Power conditioning

Just as HBLED industry growth

has benefited from system

integrators, and related

component manufacturers…

…CPV requires a full range of

components

We can learn from other photonics mkts

Sources: Kurtz NREL


Organic solar


Adding new technologies to the NREL chart

Hybrid:

Nanocrystal/polymer

Marching towards 10%...

Hybrid

• Nanocrystal/polymer

6.0%

Organic Cells: Still

emerging from the lab


Hero experiments for OPV

Single photoactive layer

NREL certified 5.98%

Aperture = 0.044cm2

Cell size ~ 0.1cm2

Sources: Plextronics, NREL, OIDA

OPV approaching 6%


Organic PV

Solution process based materials >50% deposition solution processing

100% possible

Cost Must be <$50/m2

Must be <$0.5/W

Plastic substrate

Lifetime Must be equal to in-organic

Efficiency Must get higher

– 10% single

– 15% tandem

Work well in low light/angle

Weight Must be <0.5um active layer

Cost is major issue for solar & lighting



Roof-top testing of organic PV

Western PA initial data promising

Technology advancing for OPV



OPV – organic has wide potential

OPV Potential

Operates well under

various lighting sources

Low dependence on

angle of incidence

Flexible/conformable

form factor

On-Grid Power

Off-Grid Power

Rural Power

Transportation

Active

Clothing

Battery

Charging

Consumer Products

Micro-devices

Wireless SensorsSmart Packaging

Sources: IMEC, Avesco Displays, OIDA, Plextronics

Many grid/non-grid applications


Perhaps printing solar cells is the answer…

Organic carbon based inks technology

Printing process allows continuous roll process

Lower capital investment (no clean room, vacuum, or silicon)

Source: Konarka, sharp

Capital investment in plant: big driver


Flex substrate technologies

Source: Eric Weisoff, Greentechmedia, Power plastic

Thin film opens new doors to consumer…


OLED display market forecast by application 2004-2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Reven

ue (

$M

illio

ns)

Other

OLED Lighting

Fashion Clothing

Health/sensing

Automotive

Television

Notebook

Monitor

PMP

Mobile Main

Mobile Sub

Global OLEDs over next decade

Television biggest driver for OLEDs

Solar still to be forecasted…

TV

Sources: Display Search, OIDA, iSupply, OIDA members, IOA


On-grid solar


On-grid solar generating systems

Solar module DC; inverter AC electrical devices

Electricity meter tracks usage (spins forward/backward)

Surplus is sent to the grid for reselling

Source: Photowatt

Key components for solar grid


Global PV trends for grid

Commercial systems accelerate; total >50GW by 2019

Global PV trends for grid based systems

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

So

lar

ge

ne

rati

on

(G

W)

Grid Other

Grid residential

Grid commercial

Source: Navigant Consulting, EPIA, IOA, OIDA, Plextronics

Commercial solar strong growth


On-grid feed-in at peak usage time

Solar energy matches peak usage times

Requires managing power fed by distributed solar sources24h-Energy Profile

0:0

0

6:0

0

12

:00

18

:00

24

:00

Ele

ctr

ica

l E

ne

rgy

[a

rb. u

nit

s]

Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff

Electricity supplied by

Utility

Fed-In

Energy

Solar Energy

Energy consumption of building

Electricity supplied by

Utility

Using solar to manage demand

Sources: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH, Courtesy EPIA


On-grid info-mative displays

Used to allow residents to monitor electric usage inside

the home with a mobile display

Source: Sharp

Residential solar displays


On-grid residential applications

Innovative rooftop designs

Sources: PIDA


PVs integrated into buildings

Decorative pattern elements on transparent panels

Sources: WCRE-World Council for Renewable Energy

Aesthetics: popular/differentiator


Commercial on-grid systems

Parking structure with solar modules, US Navy, Ca

Source: Powerlight Corporation

Large size is typical (upto 1MW)


On-grid commercial solar systems

Visible integrated building architecture

Whitehall ferry terminal – New York City

Source: WCRE-World Council for Renewable Energy, Atlantis Energy Systems, Inc


Off-grid solar


Off-grid solar generating systems

No connection to electricity utility provider

Solar module, regulator for protection, battery, inverter (for AC)

(1) MPV module, (2) regulation charge/battery, (3) lighting, (4)

refridgeration, (5) household appliances

Remote applications: DC powered

Source: Photowatt


Global PV trends for non-grid

Total approaches 6GW by 2019: remote applications ke

Off- grid products typically higher cost/ASP than grid solutions

Global PV trends for non-grid based systems

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

so

lar

ge

ne

rati

on

(G

W)

Remote environment

Consumer products

Source: Navigant Consulting, EPIA, IOA, OIDA, Plextronics

Consumer will jazz PV products

Handheld Electronics

Other Habitation

Village Power

Outdoor Recreation

Consumer Indoor

Water Pumping

Trans Signals

Cathodic Prot

Comm. & Tel

Outdoor Lighting


Solar in consumer products

Solar Charger for iPod Portable Media Player

Sources: Soldius

Consumer products


Solar products for the environment

Solar Charger Container for UV LED Water Purifier

Sources: Hydro Photon, Steripen Adventurer

Solar charger for UV purifier


Off-grid solar module applications

Remote developing rural geographical areas

Examples show Raotan, Honduras and Botswana

Key for building infrastructure

Sources: Kyocera, Rain or Shine Power KG Electric Solar Power Company, Johannesburg, South Africa


Stand-alone consumer products

Off-grid subset include home landscaping, solar

powered fountains. Chargers for electronics products

High efficiency & reliability not the key metric

Low power, flex substrates key

Sources: Simply Fountains

http://www.simplyfountains.com/outdoor-fountains/solar-fountains/products.cfm?action=view&key=ST039


Solar cells in automotive

White Glass Cover with Integrated Solar Cells Sun shade with Blower Cascade

Roof-operated Solar

Ventilation

Novel applications progressing

Sources: PIDA


Solar energy

Off-grid applications include residential opportunities

New solar trees?

Sources: PIDA


Roadmap trends


80

60

40

20

0

Effic

iency,

%

0 200 400 600 800 1000Cost per Area $ / m2

$3.50/W

$1.00/W

$0.50/W$0.20/W$0.10/WThermodynamic Limit

∞ Junction Limit

5-6 Junction Limit

Single Junction Limit

SunPower 21.5% cell

Legend

Shell 14% cell

Sharp 15% cell

Sanyo 19% celln

n

BP Solar 14.2% celln

nThin

Film

Silicon

OIDA solar trends 2008

OIDA Solar cell platform roadmap

Sources: Silex, OIDA

Concentrator

Multi-Junction

1st Generation: c-Si

2nd Generation: a-Si, poly Si, CdTe,

CIGS-CIS, Nanocrystals, PEC,

Polymer, Dye sensitized (DSSC)

3rd Generation: Hybrid cells,

Inorganic/polymer mix, MJ,

concentration, hybrid solutions

4th Generation: Low cost, high

efficiency

4th Gen


Economics


Will the solar industry meet grid parity?

Economies of solar in Cost/kWh fundamental driver

Today ~28c/kWhr (Ca) before subsidies (~14c after)

Verses ~11c-34c for retail electricity costsGlobal solar industry trends (Cost/Watt)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Co

st/

Year

(c/k

Wh

)

Conventional electricity cost

Solar cost (unsubsidized)

Solar cost (subsidized)

Expect grid parity

with subsidy

around 2010-12

Expect grid parity

without subsidy

around 2014-16

Assumes

conventional energy

price +3% per year

Subsidy or not – is this real?

Source: Morgan Stanley, Street Research


Summary

Green photonics has arrived

Energy efficiency – thinking and designing will be important

Optoelectronics markets will still grow

In spite of turbulent economic times (displays, solar)

Many new exciting opportunities

Solar technology is now running with the „big boys‟

Momentum (oil pricing, global warming, political messaging)

Companies are over-priced, over-sold, over-valued – bubble…

Demand is high – will consumers pay extra for solar?

Hope is that Gvts continue to support renewable energy

Thin film, concentrators, will help drive new heights in performance

Shake-out – sure – we‟re just a seedling today…


END

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