global shift: the challenges of energy interdependence and climate change

8/4/2019 Global Shift: The Challenges of Energy Interdependence and Climate Change

1/38

p a p e r s e r i e s

Global Shift

the ChallenGeS of enerGy interdependenCe and

Climate ChanGe

Hanns W. Maull

Research Fellow, Transatlantic Academy


2/38

2011 ransatlantic Academy. All rights reserved.

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3/38

Global ShiftThe Challenges of Energy Interdependence

and Climate Change

Transatlantic Academy Paper Series

September 2011

H W. Mu

Research Fellow, Transatlantic Academy

Akw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Exuv Su . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

T G E S: B F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

I Gv E C C Iu. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

T C U . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

C W E C C P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

P R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Av G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

H W. Mu , Uv T,

G . P Mu S Av B

Su W u Pk, B u S Av B G Cu

F R. A k G U Pw, F P B Ru

(Pv 6).


4/38

Transatlantic Academyii

Acknowledgements

I , I v vu

v w R Hu Yj Z. I

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u F M, w

w

vu w v

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u T

A, D Du, J G, S

K, S Y K, Ik R,

A D Sv Sz N

S. S Y K, J G, Sv

Sz v u u v

v x.


5/38

Global Shift 1

Executive Summary

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uu . I

k ,

w

u u x . A

, w

, w u ,

u k w

: u , , u

v w

. P

u (GHG) uu k

w v. Y

w GHG ,

CO , v

u v .

T U S, Eu U, C

u ;

w v v. T w

v .

S u

w, w

U N Fwk Cv C

C wk

v

.

T w

w

, u j j,

w

u u w v u

, C.


6/38

Global Shift 3

On average more

than one out

of five units of

energy consume

anywhere in

the world would

come from

internationally

traded oil.

The Global Energy System:

Basic Facts1

E w w j w. F,

, u

, - w

u

qu. F x,

u U S

98 uu u .

S, u

w

, kw, v .

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, ( u)

w , v

u (u ). Fw

. Ov, -

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w

.

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. I

w u, z

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w u

99 . 9. Tu, v

u v u u

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, ,

u .3

W u (u 9 u

() 9) u v

(8 ) u (36 ),

u u

u , -. F

, w 9 w u 96

(M), w u -v (3.4) u.4

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vu. A v

k w v u u,

w w

u u. S vu

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v u u

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w xu

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u .

Vu x W

w u 97. I ,

U.S. u, w u .3

, v

v; , , u

6.7 7, w v w u 7.5

. A u, 97

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w , w u 6

qu u .

S, 97 Eu Cu

w w

u

u; u

k 39 (98) 3. (

) u N S u. W uu N S ,

u , u

35 .


7/38

Transatlantic Academy4

High levels of

interdependence

between nations

and societies

mean that energy

objectives cannot

be pursued in

isolation: energy

independence

is a chimera.

Rather, they need

to be pursued

cooperatively.S 993, C j

; , C u 4.8

, 55 .

A u w,

vu v

P Gu. T M E

w x w 44 35

.5 Eu Ru

u u , u

u ,

, vu.

I z

vu u w:

w , u

x . M u x

u (w 96

O Pu Ex Cu

(OPEC) ) v,

xuv

vu x

v vu.6 U u,

k v

v u.

H v w

jv

uu :

. R, uu

v, u v k

v, u u

v. I

k, k,

x, uu v

k u v z. Tu,

v wk u wk

wk v u wk

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

Figure 1: Major trade movements of oil in 2010 (million tons)


8/38

Global Shift 5

A growing world

population and

huge disparities

in social

development

between

countries...all

point to further

significant

increases in worl

primary energy

demand well

into the future.

But growth will

increasingly be

concentrated

in non-OECD

countries.

k u w

.

The Link between Energy and Social

Development

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OECD w ( ).

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(

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w u u v w

v ,

u u

u u v.

Nv, w

) w w u ) v

v. A w w u

u v w

u, u u

v v ,

Primary Energy

demand (mtoe)

1990 2000 2005 2010 relation

2010: 1990

W 895.6 938.4 8.9 .4 + 48 %

U S 963.3 33.7 35. 85.7 + 6 %

Eu U 643.5 7.4 88. 73.9 + 5 %

C 685. 38. 69.5 43. + 55 %

Table 1: Evolution of World Primary Energy Demand

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 (Workbook)

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030

Figure 2: Energy use per unit of GDP, expressed in tons of oil equivalent per

000 $GDP (2009, purchasing power parity)


9/38


Global emissions

continue to grow

rapidly: for CO2alone, the global

increase between

1990 and 2009

totalled 7,671

million tons of

CO2, a rise of

over 34 percent.

Chinas CO2

emission growth

accounted for 20

percent of the

global increase.

u w w uu.

Bu w w

-OECD u w w

u u u . I

x, v k

u.

Energy and Climate Change

Du u, u u

u w.

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(x CO

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v v 65,

.

8

A u, v uv u .8C 97. A

u w : CO ,

w 99 9

7,67 CO, v 34 .

C CO w u

.9


10/38

Global Shift 7

International Governance of Energy

and Climate Change Issues2

The most

important

arrangement in

...international

oil governance...

is informal and

bilateral, rather

than multilateral

the close but

also conflict-

ridden bilateral

relationship

between the

United States an

Saudi Arabia.

T w w j

v

w

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u

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u, u w

w v k

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uu k, w

w . Mv,

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v w , ;

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Governance Structures in the International

Energy System

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A v

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u, w

OECD. T IEA v u

u v

z

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) T O Pu Ex

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u u U.S. u u

Su A x

Su k w

, u U.S. u , u

( ), v . T

k

v uu,

w x u


11/38


The problem with

this system of

governance for

world oil is that

it leaves out ...

major new oil

importers, led by

China and India.

j OECD . W SuA uu w

Gu C Cu (GCC)

Kuw U A E,

x u wu k Su

A v OPEC k

u . T , wv,

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x

w k. T , u

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w u u u

u u

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OPEC k u

( u ) u

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vu x v w

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juz u, EU

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v, u

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973/4 u j

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k j uzu u. I ,

v u

v u

: ju 4

8, k w u


12/38

Global Shift 9

u 9. S , v , k u $/

( u 3).

Governance Structures to Address

Climate Change

A

U N

Fwk Cv C C

(UNFCCC), w w 99

M , 994. I u

jv z u v

wu v u

w (A. ,

UNFCCC), w v u

-

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(A. 3 ()), w

u v

u P wu k

(A. 3 ()). T v

- Ax I u

(, v u u).

A w-u UNFCC, K P,

w Fu 6, 5,

37 uz u

Eu U u u ( - Ax I u). T

v- w

8- u v u

v v 99 v.

T j w P

Figure 3: World oil prices: the big picture

Source: BP


13/38


A look at global

CO2 emissions

since 1990...

suggests

that present

arrangements of

global governance

to address

climate change

are insufficient,

if not completely

dysfunctional. Cv w Cv

u uz u u GHG

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(CDM), j .

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(vu )

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u,

.

A k CO 99 (

u u

K )

u u

( ) u, wv,

CO2

Emissions

1990 2000 2009 Reduction

Target 2012

Difference

(percent)a

U S 6.8 78. 653.8 5684. - 3 %

Eu

U

575.3 57. 4666. 59.5 + 3 %

J 68.7 344.3 35. 9.5 + 5 %

Ru 33.7 4.8 97. 33.7 + 58 %

Au 48.4 496. 549.4 45.8 - 8 %

Canada 591.8 717.1 701.4 556.3 - 21 %

China 2244.0 3077.6 7056.3 n.a. n.a.

India 589.3 976.4 1537.0 n.a. n.a.

Table 2: Evolution of greenhouse gas emissions (in million ton CO2

equivalent), 1990 2009

a Negative figure: 2009 emissions exceed target; positive figure: emissions below target

Source: Ziesing (2010)


14/38

Global Shift 11

International

climate change

diplomacy

has produced

agreements that

either were so

vague as to be

easy to fulfill but

meaningless in

practice, or so

specific that eve

well-intentioned

governments

found it hard

to achieve

those targets.

v u,

u.

W x EU, J, -EU

E Eu u, k

u w ,

w k x,

uu w u u (u

ku Sv U, w

v u CO

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uv u

w u

k ,

w (, u

, ).5 A

u,

u w vu

u u ,

v w- v

u v .


15/38


The global energy

system...seems

headed towards

major upheavals.

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u w,

v A, A, L A

u u. T u

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w juv. Y uu

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vu , v

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Energy Demand and Supply

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3)

( u .8 u ).

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w u v, ,

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w k -OECD u),

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u, w u

w, u w w w

Trends and Critical Uncertainties

3

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030

Figure 4: world population, primary energy demand, and GDP growth, 1970 - 2030


16/38

Global Shift 13

The essence

of the energy/

climate change

conundrum is th

the unsustainabl

energy- and

resource-

intensive modes

of production

and lifestyles

of industrial

societies have

been spreading

on a global scale

v v u.

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Su,

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-OECD w u u w

w w ( u 4). Fuu

OECD u w

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v x C I

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7 , z C v

u 4

.7

Oil and Natural Gas Import Dependence

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qu ,

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IEA, , j OPEC

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(5.4 w u).8

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u x .

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qu, x

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. F v,

u u u

P/A Gu (u Iq), L,

Vzu, N, Kzk ( w

, , C). S vu v

M E

, u

x w.


17/38


A more fragile

and conflict-

ridden system

of international

oil governance

seems likely.

This will probably

result in stronger

price fluctuations

and a general

upward pressure

on oil prices.

Mj u k v u

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, u u

u ,

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vv A Pu.

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x, u I-A Y Ku w 973 .

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v

k. T w u

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wu v v v

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v u

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vu

u, w , u

u u,

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w , w k

z. C

Eu u z

u v -Eu k, u

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W E ( E W,

uu ) w

, , P

Nw

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vu.

Global Warming

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( w) 45

CO quv. Y CO v

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99 5 . W

EU (EU-7) w w v

w 99 8 3 ,

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Ev u uu u

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(), 45

xu


18/38

Global Shift 15

Global warming

represents one o

the major nation

and global secur

concerns for the

coming decades

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w (u

) / u

(w ), w

wu u w ,

u wu x.3

G w

, w j ww

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u v w .4

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CO

u . Bu

u

u, u w

w k z, w

u w,

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U.S. N I Cu

w j

u .6

S u,

w qu

,

u

j. Y u u

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u ju u, w

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u), v u

v

u

, u u

u. Iuv,

u ,

, w, v ,

u qu u

uv v u u.7 I ,

u

u u v

v v w

v (, 5).

New Policies Scenario Current Policies Scenario

1980 2008 2020 2035 2020 2035

Coal ,79 3,35 3,966 3,934 4,37 5,8

Oil 3,7 4,59 4,346 4,66 4,443 5,6

Gas ,34 ,596 3,3 3,748 3,66 4,39

Nuclear 86 7 968 ,73 95 ,8

Hydro 48 76 376 476 364 439

Biomass and waste* 749 ,5 ,5 ,957 ,46 ,75

Other renewables 89 68 699 39 468

Total 7,229 12,271 14,556 16,748 14,896 18,048

Table 3: World primary energy demand, by fuel, different scenarios (Mtoe)

*Includes traditional and modern uses.

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010


19/38


A u u w , w

wu u u

u u. A u

v u v

wu , v, v

w ,

u CO

( w u wu v u u

w v, ,

.., u u ). T

wu u k w

uu . T

v u

w u u.Problems could...

get worse before

they get better

despite successful

policy efforts.


20/38

Global Shift 17

Challenges of Energy Transition

A u 5 w, C w

u x

w.

T I

E A (IEA) u C

u u u 9

, 6

CO , u 35

w .

Ov ,

C w

w

: w 98 5, ,

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vu , w

u 8 3

94 .

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uz, v ,

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w v : v

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U.S. u 7, v

8, C u -qu

w .9 D

x u

u 35; , C u u 5 ( w

China in World Energy and

Climate Change Politics4

Figure 5: Chinas share of the projected net global increase for selected indicators

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010

China alone coul

account for abou

90 percent of

incremental glob

coal demand and

net oil imports,

close to 60

percent of the

global increase in

oil demand and

CO2 emissions,

and about 35

percent of the ne

increase in world

energy demand.


21/38


43 8). E w :

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35, w

- w . T IEA

j

x : w 9 ,

C wu v u

quv

EU, 5, U S 8.3

C u v

u v . W u w, u

u , u C

quk qu

993, w w

u. I , C

7

43 , 7.5

9.3 T IEA x

35 C w v 84

75 ; wu

w u 4.8

() .8 35.3 Nu , w w u 4.5

u () 8, k

, u

Ru C A v LNG

A-P P Gu.

T v u v

x w u

u w (u u

u w w w

Fuku u J). I ,

C w uu

w , , v

$54 .33

Ov, C u

j . U 5,

C u C

uuu w, uw v wu

w -, u

C k , w

u .5 w.

B 7, w 6

u v

.34 T

u Fv-Y P (6-),

w u

v k k. F Fv-Y

P, C uu

u u v v w

u w u

u.

T k C v

u w j . F, j

v w

,

v w u u (.., ,

w, u w ) u

u w qu

(u u- , u , u u). T

w . U 7, u

u

w u . T ,

w u Cu

P u w z,

wu v .

Nv, u k

, w u

u xuv v u w,

qu (..,

). I w u,

Fv-Y P, C

v

u v

Chinas energy

situation clearly

presents major

challenges to

the leadership.


22/38

Global Shift 19

. S, w ,

u k,

u, w

u.

Wv v k,

wv C w

k, C w

w w w

v

. Ev C

u w u j, u w

, M

E, w ,

C w U S

w u .

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u; w W,

w vu

M E.

C u u

w. T u w v

v

M E u

u , u uv

w k M E u,

Su A, x

u A L A. T C

v xv

u

k (S Huz

M Tw S) Gu

C.35 T v

u u u k, u w I E A

(IEA), inter alia u k .36

Gv w

vu, uu C w

v k

v k, uu x u, , u .

T w w

M E,

k u: I

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u ; uu v

A w

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u; vu I-

P I-I .

Challenges of Environmental Sustainability

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,8 ); wu 58

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Whichever choic

the government

makes, and

whichever

direction Chines

energy policies

will take, China

will remain highl

interdependent

with the world

energy system.


23/38


- CO (U S:.5 ; EU 7.8 ).38 Ev u

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CO 9 wu v

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u GDP v 99( wu u v

CO ). Bj

w uv

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v u )

v u, w u u

.

China has been

doing, and will

be doing, a

great deal to

help stem global

warming out of its

own, pragmatic

assessment of its

national interest.


24/38

Global Shift 21

T wj u:

T w w

u u w

w

w u. T w x

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A Price Path for Carbon Dioxide

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R G S,

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u v

v

Policy Recommendations

5

There is an

inescapable nee

to coordinate

national policy

efforts, and

China could not

be expected to

initiate this. The

transatlantic

community is be

placed to do so.


25/38


CO v x u u

x / . T

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xv v , w

w

u u

CO ), w

u . Su

u

(

u)

u u

u CO

w

Su

u

uu

Figure 6: Alternative illustrative price paths for fossil fuels for final consumers

Markets are

unable on their

own to achieve

the needed

energy transition

away from fossil

fuels, as they are

unable to price in

the full costs of

climate change.


26/38

Global Shift 23

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v v v.

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v v

v w vw

v

v, u u

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(u

). T vu u u

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k u u

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v.

Modalities

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w. Bu u u

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v- u

Member countrie

in this agreemen

would form an

avant-garde club

of promoters of

climate protectio

leading the rest

of the world by

example and by

down payments

of their own.


27/38


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) w k x v .

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T AReport on Global

Shift w

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The Politics of Implementation

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u

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The negotiating

strategy for an

agreement on

global warming

would thus

resemble that

for the present

world trade order.


28/38

Global Shift 25

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u, u.

Y u ,

u w

u v w.

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, w

, w

Figure 7: Global concern about climate change:

governments are not doing enough

Source: World Development Report 2010

Public opinion

data suggest

that ...there is

a significant

awareness of the

need for higher

energy prices, an

a willingness to

pay for containin

the risks of

climate change.


29/38


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Coping with Strategic EnergyVulnerability

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wu u , v

Figure 8: Willingness to accept higher energy prices to

combat climate change

Source: World Development Report 2010

Strategic

vulnerability for

oil and natural

gas importers

would continue for

some time...The

management of

this vulnerability

need to be put

on a broader

basis to make

it sustainable.


30/38

Global Shift 27

w vu uu. T

vu

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k u. I u,

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IEA

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v

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wu qu ,

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u,

v. T w

, uv u

w u, v

w , u w ,

. A uv wk ,

uu

u, u,

u,

w, u x

wk I E Fu

Figure 9: The three dimensions of strategic energy vulnerability

An inclusive

international

framework for

negotiations,

bringing together

the most

important presen

and future oil an

energy producer,

consumer and

transit countries,

therefore needs

to be established

and empowered.


31/38


R, I EC T. P, u

u w M E

u w, u C

I, u

u .


32/38

Global Shift 29

bcm: billion cubic meters ( u u w). O qu

x .9 .

CCS: Carbon capture storage/sequestration.

T v CO

(u u w )

- .

CDM: clean development mechanism. N

UNFCCC x u K

P Cv

u, w u w -

u -

( - Ax B P)

-u j v u.

Emission trading. E , u

A 7 K P, w u

v u ,

u u

x u u

x .

GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council. I u

v v u x , u v

A Pu

. M u Su A,

Kuw, Q, U A E, B,

O.

GDP: Gross Domestic Product.

GHG: Greenhouse Gases. T

v ,

w

u u, u w

v, x (CO), (CH4),

u x (NO), z, w uu

xu (SF6), u (HFC),

u (CF). T

CO, w u u w-

GHG u u v, u u

GHG.

IEA: International Energy Agency. Fu

974, IEA z

u ( w

OECD, u OECD

IEA) ... u ,

, 8

u . I

u, v,

v w, w w u.

Joint implementation. A A 6

K P, j w

u w u

u K P (Ax

B P) u u (ERU)

-u v

j Ax B P.

Kyoto Protocol: see UNFCCC.

mcm: million cubic meters (u u w).

million barrels per day(: ):

. S u (u)

w; qu 57 .

Mt: million tons. F u w, 49.8 /

x .

Mtoe: quv (qu

u u w).

OPEC: Organization for Petroleum ExportingCountries. Fu 96 v

x u , u

w . Fu

Iq, I, Kuw, Su A Vzu;

Q (96), L (96), U A

Abbreviations and Glossary

6


33/38


E (967), A (969), N (97), A (7) j . Eu j

OPEC 973; u

99 7; G w

975 99. I, w j 96,

u OPEC 9.

ppm: parts (of GHG) per million. S

u GHG

.

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change. B

wk CO

u .

U K P, v u

CO (u)

(Ax B u). T P

u , CDM j

v w u

w.


34/38

Global Shift 31

Endnotes

7 Tk , u u u -v(4.8 ) w 9. A u w , vu w u

995 v, . T vu u u , wv. Tvu w u 8 4 v 7, u 9 37 8, w w u , uu. I 9, w u w w u $.8 (W T O, International Trade Statistics2010, Gv: WTO , . 43).

Ow u, k BPStatistical Review of World Energy, vu .

3 T v u , w u u - u u , (u w ) v u .

4 IEA, CI I, P: IEA [://www../u/_w_D.?PUBS_ID=, Ju 7, ].

5BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, . 8 [://

www../.?I=75&I=76848, Ju , ]

6 F x, Su A vu 9 x , 45 GNP, 8 v vu. CIA World Factbook,Su A E [://www..v//u/-w-k//., Ju 8, ].

7 I uv , I Mu v w u uu . Av

u u . SM, I: Why the West Rules the World for Now,The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal Aboutthe Future, Nw Yk: F, Su & Gux , .43.

8 M : 599. T GHG

. Tu, IPCC WkGu O 75, ... u w CO u:

5 v -u vu w 97 , w 5 w v u 3 .I 995 5, CO u 9 ; v w CO u 95. S S,S., D. Q, M. M, Z. C, M. Mqu, K.B.Av, M. T H.L. M (.): Contributionof Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

7, C Uv P: C, UK Nw Yk, NY, USA 7, . 35 (://www../u__/4/w//q--.) [ A 5, ].

9 Z, H-J: Wk Rk ww CO E , Zeitschrift fr Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, V. 6,Iu 9 (S. ), . 54-65.

E k v : I 979/8; x Gu w

Kuw Iq x 99; Ju , u OPEC u v u u u L u. I ,IEA w u . T u u IEA v qu u: U S k u 4.4 , u I uu . S P, Sv:W , Financial Times, Ju3, .

F x, Su A u v Tu E w

w $33 S Skk, J: Su k uv wu, Financial Times, Fu 3, .

O x w OPEC V Ju w Su A wuuv I u u


35/38


OPEC v u . S B, Dv: O OPEC , Financial Times, Ju 8, .

3 K, R O./V, Dv G.: T RCx C C, APSA Perspectives onPolitics, V. 9 Iu (M ), . 7-3

4 Tu, Ru, Bu, Uk, Cv u 9 v 4 ( w z

99 v). T -qu u v Ax I u 9 u . S Z, .., . 55.

5 V, Dv G.: Global Warming Gridlock, CreatingMore Effective Strategies for Protecting the Planet,C: C Uv P , .3. S A, W/T, S: FastForward, Ethics and Politics in the Age of Global Warming,W, DC: Bk (v ), .68.

6 S BP Energy Outlook, L: BP, Ju , .7 [://www../8.?I=93734&I=768677, Ju7, ]. T j IEA W EOuk . S I E

A, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, P: OECD, . 89.

7 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010, - ., . 6.

8 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010, P: IEA ,. 9. T ( w IEA) w u u , w w v u (u u) u u 9/.

9 I., . 94.

T w w , 9 ( .3 ). T w v u w .

Z, .., . 56.

IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010, P: OECD ,. 384.

3 Tw j v w v u uk u Fukuw u uu u x u. Au w v , v k vv u . T u v vw ,wv. W u u w u CO, u. Bu u u u

CO u , u 3 CO u (w w u u GHG). Bu u u u ; u u u u u z, CO x u, u u 7.9 u u u. M, u ,w v CO u w, S T Z, Pk H G

I, New York Times, A , , B,6.4 T v SuDu v, x; J Mz - . S Mz,J, Climate Conflict: How Global Warming ThreatensSecurity and What to Do About It, L: T &F IISS 9, .73-86 ( = IISS A P49, S 9).

5 S V, . ., . 65; T

, W Bk, World Development Report 2010:

Development and Climate Change, W, DC:W Bk 9, . 7-84.

6 S, x, D D, QuadrennialDefense Review 2010, W, DC: D D, . IV, 86. T CIA S 9 C C C N Su.

7 T u u v qu ;


36/38

Global Shift 33

vu u v. F u v P, E A./W, Dv:Climate Change Justice, P: P Uv

P , C. 6.

8 I., . 83.

9 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010, . .

3 I., . 3.

3BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, . .

3 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010, . ., . 98.

33 S W Ru Iu: C E C Iv: Su, C, I U.S. P, A , [v: ://www.q./-/----v-u----u-, Ju , ].

34 H, Mkk: Fu D: C EP I I, W,A/Ou, R/Pv, J (): Energyand the Transformation of International Relations. Towarda New Producer-Consumer Framework, Ox: OxUv P 9, . 69-97 (7).

35 C - Gu A A S S u x x u. S Wz, R: P C

C Nv D H A, T Jw Fu, China Brief, V. Iu 4(D 9).

36 Hk, L: A v u v, Financial Times, M 3, ; CN E B I EA J S, O. 4, 9, v : ://www....j//9/8. [

Ju , ]. T u k 6( ://www../wk/wk.?WS_ID=8).

37 Su: Z , . ., T , . 55.

38 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010, . C., . 99.

39 H, . ., . 93.

4 Tu, v v 4 C x w v; u C 5 u w C.S D, A: C P PRu C Guwk SuGw? KAS International Reports N. 4/, .77,v : ://www.k./w//35.333/ [Ju , ] P, J/O, P: TSu I C C, TheWashington Quarterly, V.3 Iu (W 7/8),. 5-38 (7).

4 S Lv, Mk: W COvw W w Gu GE? W Ru Iu B C E C Iv: Su,C, I U.S. P, A5, , v : ://www.q.///v__4-5-. [ Ju ,].

4 S Wk, Guu: Cu M: CCu u Av R I CN, D, Su (): InternationalClimate Policy, Priorities of Key Negotiating Partners,B SWP , (SWP R P), .54-66(v ://www.w-.//

/u/_/_RP__k. [ Ju , ]).

43 S Du, D/G, J/K, S/K, S Y/Mu, H W./R, Ik:Global Shift, How the West Should Respond to the Rise ofChina, W, DC: T A ,.4.

44 T u w x A C E Su A, w w U.S. Hu Rv , u u j U.S. S.I A, w v

, v w u. T wu v v w . A C Bu O, v wu v x $75 v u/. SA, W/T, S: Fast Forward, Ethics


37/38


and Politics in the Age of Global Warming, W,DC: Bk (v ), . 47.

45 I u , W Dv R u w (w vu u w .3 .7 GDP) w v -, u u k. S World Development Report 2010,. ., . 7.

46 F x, v x $5/ , w wu $.44

, wu $3 u U S, u G/G ( Pk, J., R: The Climate Fix, WhatScientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About GlobalWarming, Nw Yk: B Bk , . 8).

47 S V, . ., C. 5.

48 T v v v x u u qu , . T w , w u , u v x

u. S OECD: AI Cv W NuC P: L D OECDA, P: OECD , v : ://www..//34/6/4653374. [ Ju ,].

49 S V, . ., C. 8 A, W/T, S: Fast Forward, Ethics and Politics in theAge of Global Warming, W, DC: Bk (v ), . 9 x uGATT .

5 T uu ( )

w u u uv v, u u u.

5 T uv w w u 6 u, v vu. I 5 u 6 u, j v w k

u u , wuw . S W Dv R ,Pu u w : u-u , W, DC: T W Bk, . 5 (v : ://u.wk.

/INTWDR/Ru/CC_P_R_Ju__. [ Ju , ].

5 Pk, .., . 4.

53World Development Report 2010 (Pu Au),

. ., . 8-. Cu w US, F, J ( u); Bz,Mx, Ru, Tuk (u- u)C, I, I, I, E (w-

u); B, K, S, V (w- u).

54 I., . 8-.

55 Bw, S: Higher Realism, A New Foreign Policyfor the United States, D: P Pu 9,. 76.

56 T v v u u v x uu. S N, P: BD: Hw D w Ru G, L:Eu Cu F R 8, v

://.u//-/u/Ru---. [ Ju , ).

57 S World Development Report 2010 . ., . 4.


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