global sea level rise laury miller noaa lab for satellite altimetry
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Sea Level Rise
Laury Miller
NOAA Lab for Satellite Altimetry
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Why Measure Sea Level Rise?
Inundation Will Have a Catastrophic Impact
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What’s Causing Global Warming?
Net Heat Input Causes Global Warming
Top of Atmosphere
Heat Incoming
Heat Outgoing
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Where Does the Heat Go?
Net Heat Input to
Earth System
(Levitus et al., GRL, 2004)
84% -- Saved By The Oceans!
Amount of Heat Absorbed by Parts of Earth Climate System Over Past 40 Years
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Church et al., 2004, 2006
Holgate and Woodworth, 20041.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr (1960 to 2000)
Satellite altimetrySatellite altimetry
What is the most obvious consequence?Mean Sea Level Rise, 1870-2000: ~1.7 mm/yr,
with an increase in the rate of rise
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Altimeter Record of Sea Level Rise Over Past 15 Years
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Sea Level Rise From Topex & Jason-1: 1993-2007
•Sea Level Rise is spatially, highly non-uniform
GLOSS Tide Gauges
• Tide gauges are important, but primarily for altimeter calibration
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Ice Melt
More Water, More Mass
Thermal Expansion, More Volume
Heat
What’s Causing Sea Level Rise?
Sea Level Rise
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Sea Level Budget Changes With TimeCurrent Rate Nearly Twice the 20th Century Rate
Largely Due to Volume Changes
Volume
MassVolume
Total Mass
Total
1920 - 1990 1992 - 2003
0.5 mm/yr
1.8 mm/yr
1.3 mm/yr1.5 mm/yr
1.7 mm/yr
3.2 mm/yr
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Sources of Ice Melt & Potential Impact on Sea Level
70 m
Antarctica
6 m
Greenland
0.7 m
Mountain Glaciers
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The loss poses grave environmental dangers … but not Sea Level Rise … (Archimedes Principle)
Summer 1979
Summer 2003
Arctic Sea Ice Is Disappearing At Record Rate
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Cryospheric sea-level rise: glaciers and ice sheets
Glaciers62
Greenland28
Antarctica10
Sea Level Rise (%) [Meier et al., 2007]100% = 1.8 mm a-1
Glaciers70
Greenland20
Antarctica10
Sea Level Rise (%) [IPCC, 2006]]100% = 1.28 mm a-1
Glaciers50
Greenland30
Antarctica20
Sea Level Rise (%) [latest GRACE data)]100% = 2.2 mm a-1
Konrad Steffen, Steve Nerem,CIRES, Univ. of Colorado
Ice Melt Contributions to Sea Level Rise: Glaciers & Ice Sheets
Mountain Glaciers Are Currently the Biggest Source, But Probably Not For Long.
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Greenland Is a Growing Worry
Its ice sheets are flowing faster towards the ocean during summer.
Possibly due to surface melt water cascading down crevases and providing lubrication at the ice/rock interface.
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How Is The Ocean Heat Distribution Measured?
Argo Profiler Array
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Courtesy of Mathieu Belbeoch, Argo Information Center* ice-free oceans
Starting in 2000, Argo Attained Global Coverage of the Oceans* in Nov 2007
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How accurate are the projections?IPCC projects sea level to rise ~30-80 cm by 2100
Reconstructed record from tide
gauges
Satellite altimetry
The additional land-ice uncertainty
Model projection
Rahmstorf et al., Science, 2007
Observed sea level is rising at the upper limit of IPCC TAR projection that includes a “land-ice uncertainty”
* 4th Assessment Report
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Can We Close the Sea Level Budget?
Jason = +3.6 mm/yr
GRACE = +0.8 mm/yr
Argo = -0.5 mm/yr
Argo + GRACE = +0.6 mm/yr ?
Willis, Chambers & Nerem, JGR, 2008
Mass Sea Level
Volume Sea Level
Total Sea Level