Global Reactive Gases

Martin SchultzIEK-8, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH

• MACC G-RG (13 partners) combines heritage from GEMS (12 partners) and PROMOTE (5 partners)

• PROMOTE heritage:• level 2 satellite data products (GOME, GOME-2, Sciamachy, OMI)

• decentralized data assimilation for stratospheric (and total column) ozone (SACADA, BASCOE, TM3DAM)

• GEMS heritage:• quasi-operational monitoring of tropospheric and stratospheric

composition with IFS-MOZART and coupling achieved for IFS-TM5 and IFS-MOCAGE

• reanalysis 2003-2008

• support of scientific field campaigns

• a lot of validation activities

Introduction Slide 2

MACC G-RG comprises 4 work packages:

• WP 1: Satellite based monitoring of stratospheric ozone and tropospheric trace gas columns

• WP 2: Consolidation and improvement of integrated global stratospheric ozone service

• WP 3: Consolidation and improvement of integrated service for global tropospheric reactive gases

• WP 4: Development of fully integrated chemistry transport in the ECMWF IFS

Introduction Slide 3

WP 1 objective:

Continue existing decentralized services from PROMOTE that deliver value-added satellite data products related to stratospheric ozone and tropospheric trace gas columns (ozone, NO2, HCHO, CO, SO2) to end users

WP1 Status Slide 4

• Task G-RG_1.1: Near-real time provision of ozone and NO2 data from OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME and GOME-2

• Task G-RG_1.2: Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using SACADA 4D-Var

• Task G-RG_1.3: Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using BASCOE 4D-Var

• Task G-RG_1.4: Total ozone record, monitoring and forecast service Assimilation and forecasts of global stratospheric ozone

• Task G-RG_1.5: Validation of WP G-RG 1 trace gas services

WP1 Status Slide 5

• Main results of first reporting period• Routine provision of satellite based data for European

instruments:GOME-2, OMI and SCIAMACHY

• Quasi-operational application of independent assimilation systems:BASCOE, SACADA, TM3DAM for stratospheric ozone chemistry

• Initial validation of stratospheric (assimilation) services

WP1 Status Slide 6

Provision of satellite based data (level-2)

• Most level-2 data on stratospheric ozone, BrO, tropospheric and total NO2, CH2O and SO2 is now available in NRT via MACC and/or dedicated access points

• Improvements of the trace gas retrieval w.r.t. speed, temperature data, new (standard) absorption spectra

• Reprocessing for GOME(1995-2003) and SCIA(2002-2010)

Task GRG 1.1

WP1 Status Slide 7

Stratospheric ozone services

• SACADA assimilation of SCIA nadir ozone observations since March 2010.

• BASCOE assimilation of MLS AURA data since December 2009.

• Multi-instrumental 30 year reanalysis based on TOMS, GOME, SBUV, SCIA, OMI and GOME-2 data.

• SCIA ozone forecasts are now corrected for instrumental calibration issues, which is especially important for UV products.

Tasks GRG 1.2--1.4

WP1 Status Slide 8

Assimilated total ozone record for the period 1978 – 2008 based on satellite observations of TOMS, SBUV, GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OMI

TM3DAM

R. J. van der A, M. A. F. Allaart, and H. J. Eskes (2010): Multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 11401-11448.

WP1 Status Slide 9

BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM: Intercomparison and comparison to independent data(focus on 2003 episode)

• BASCOE and SACADA more similar than TM3DAM.

• Results agree well in regions with good daily data coverage.

• Best correlation with independent data for the middle and high northern latitudes. Worst during ozone hole conditions.

• Most systematic deviations occur in data void regions.

• CTMs are capable to reproduce the Antarctic ozone hole. Though, timing and intensity differs from observations.

Task GRG 1.5

WP1 Status Slide 10

D 1.1

Near-real time provision of ozone and NO2 data from OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME and GOME-2

M4 onwards

 

D 1.2Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using SACADA 4D-Var

M4 onwards

Since March 2010

D 1.3Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using BASCOE 4D-Var

M4 onwards

Since Dec 2009

D 1.4Total ozone record, monitoring and forecasting service

M4 onwards

(TM3DAM) continued

D 1.5Validation report on stratospheric ozone services

M18   In preparation

D 1.7Unified web interface for integrated MACC and former PROMOTE services

M15  

Deliverable added during first MACC assembly. Integration of stratospheric assimilation services achieved (see Task 2.3), integration of level 2 satellite products and tropospheric services TBD.

WP2 Status Slide 11

WP1 Deliverable Status

o

WP 2 objective:

Consolidate, operate and improve the integrated global reactive gases forecasting for stratospheric ozone developed in the GEMS project with products comprising of ozone, N2O, CH4, BrOx, ClOx and others based on user-consultation, including the extended validation with independent data and through well-defined case studies

WP2 Status Slide 12

Task G-RG_2.1: Preparation of datasets for stratospheric model validation

Task G-RG_2.2: Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation of MACC integrated stratospheric ozone service

Task G-RG_2.3: Development of improved web-based service products and documentation

Task G-RG_2.4: Improvement integrated global stratospheric chemistry model

Task G-RG_2.5: Non-operational validation of continued GEMS stratospheric ozone service (case studies)

Task G-RG_2.6: Technical and scientific documentation of the integrated global stratospheric chemistry model

Task G-RG_2.8: Validation of initial CT-IFS results

WP2 Status Slide 13

• Acquiring and maintenance of necessary datasets• NRT groundbased and satellite observations• NRT and historic model output

• Creation of the Stratospheric Ozone Webpage:

http://macc.aeronomie.be

• Centralized stratospheric ozone products: MACC, BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM shown side-by-side, allowing quick comparison

• Initial NRT evaluation of stratospheric services

• Extensive improvement in automated evaluation software allowing for quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation

WP2 Status Slide 14

Major accomplishments in WP2

http

://m

acc.

aero

nom

ie.b

e/

Evaluation with statistical plots in observation space shows:

• IFS-MOZART has not been able to simulate/forecast polar O3 depletion

• Elsewhere: Both BASCOE CTM and IFS-MOZART overestimate (+20%) in the lower stratosphere and underestimate (-20%) in the upper stratosphere

• Monitoring and reanalysis of total O3 columns: very successful

... but vertical distribution of the analyses is wrong (bias ~ 20%)

• in South Pole vortex where model is too biased

• when no profile is assimilated…

WP2 Status Slide 16

Major accomplishments in WP2

ez2m MOZART 3.1, ff0f wetdep bug fix, f3yj Analysis

Antarctic ozone hole problem in MOZART

Monthly mean vertical profiles at Neumayer station, Antarctica

WP2 Status Slide 17

Antarctic ozone hole problem in MOZART

Simulation results with MOZART 3.5.02 showing ozone depletion down to~140 DU in September 2003 (old version had a minimum of ~220 DU)

Offline results with NCAR settings very similar to MACC settings; integration into MACC-IFS ongoing

WP2 Status Slide 18

D 2.1

Inventory of stratospheric composition datasets for validation in NRT and delayed mode

M6, M24  

D 2.2

Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation chain for MACC integrated stratospheric ozone service

M6 onwards

Basic system continued from GEMS and side-by-side comparisons with SACADA and BASCOE (from WP1)

D 2.3

Service product catalogue and web documentation of stratospheric ozone evaluation

M12, M24 http://macc.aeronomie.be

D 2.4Updated stratospheric chemistry model

M12

 

(Delay 6 M)

Albeit the reason for the IFS-MOZART deficiency to simulate Antarctic ozone depletion are still unclear, a new model version (MOZART 3.5.02) which was received from NCAR in September 2010 shows much improved simulation results. The new model is currently integrated in the MACC-IFS system.

D 2.5Stratospheric case study model results and evaluation results

M18   In preparation

o

WP2 Status Slide 19

WP2 Deliverable Status

WP 3 objective:

Consolidate, operate and improve the integrated global reactive gases forecasting for tropospheric ozone, ozone precursors (NOx, CO, HCHO, SO2, selected NMVOC and others) and oxidizing capacity developed in the GEMS project, including the extended validation with independent data and through well-defined case studies

WP3 Status Slide 20

Task G-RG_3.1: Prepare datasets for tropospheric model validation

Task G-RG_3.2: Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation of MACC integrated tropospheric trace gas service

Task G-RG_3.3: Improve integrated global tropospheric chemistry model

Task G-RG_3.4: Development of improved web-based service products and documentation

Task G-RG_3.5: Adapt G-RG model to use new vegetation fire emission data and parameterisations from D-FIRE

Task G-RG_3.6: Adapt G-RG model to use new anthropogenic and natural emission data and parameterisations from D-EMIS

Task G-RG_3.7: Non-operational validation of continued GEMS tropospheric trace gas service (case studies)

Task G-RG_3.8: Technical and scientific documentation of the integrated global tropospheric chemistry model

Task G-RG_3.9: Negotiation of an SLA with a key user for tropospheric trace gas service post-MACC

WP3 Status Slide 21

Main achievements:• 4 NRT streams:

• IFS-MOZART with assimilation of CO and ozone

• IFS-TM5 with assimilation of CO and ozone

• IFS-MOZART without assimilation

• IFS with tagged CO-like tracers

• Preparation of the MACC re-analysis with IFS-MOZART • Code and emission update & resolution increase

• Optimisation of AN suite with coupled system

• Tracer forecasts, plume modelling and analysis• Eyjafjalla eruption in April 2010

• Russian fires in July 2010

• Further development of validation metrics and web services

WP3 Status Slide 22

1-2 slides with NRT stream results(could also be tied in with Russian fires…)

For O3, Fbov shows an improvement over f026, however the O3 anomaly from 1-14 August still underestimated.

Fbov underestimates the CO concentration throughout the atmosphere and both IFS runs fail to capture the increase in CO near 5000m due to the urban emissions and forest fires in southern europe.

WP3 Status Slide 24

Ozone CO

GEMS versus MACC reanalysisGEMSMACC

Zonal CO Flux = U * MMR_CO * ρ

WP3 Status Slide 25

MACC reanalysis

CO – long-range transport over Atlantic (30W)

• GEMS&MACC developments allowed for quick implementation of tracer forecast within 24 h after eruption using different injection height assumptions

• Good agreement in shape with forecast from VAAC - Metoffice and others

• Large uncertainty in emission source strength and injection height

• Ongoing experiments with data assimilation of SO2

• Ongoing inter-comparison of plume forecast within ENSEMBLE framework (Dispersion models)

Eyjafjalla eruption: plume modelling

WP3 Status Slide 26

WP3 Status Slide 27

Eyjafjalla eruption: plume modelling

Iceland - Eyjafjallajokull

Banks Islands - Gaua

Congo - Nyamuragira

WP3 Status Slide 28

The potential use of SO2 column datato assimilate volcanic plumes

MACC models currently don‘t account for volcanic emissions in NRT

Time average

WP3 Status Slide 29

Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010:Assimilation of IASI CO

Agreement between IASI and MOPITT is good; IASI slightly higher.

Mean of IASI data used in the assimilation underestimates, because high values get first-guess and varqc rejected

• No CO assimilation for current period

• RETRO/REAS emissions• GFEDv2 climatology

TM5-semi-oper

•Assimilation of MOPITT CO•MACC emissions•GFASv0

TM5-GFASv0 MOPITT-V4

Model is drawn towards observations

Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010

WP3 Status Slide 30

CO column

•No NO2 assimilation•RETRO/REAS emissions•GFEDv2 climatology

TM5-semi-oper

•Assimilation of OMI NO2•MACC emissions,•GFASv0

TM5-GFASv0 OMI

1. Model is drawn towards observations2. Artificial spots of wildfires are suppressed

1 2

WP3 Status Slide 31

Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010NO2 column

WP3 Status Slide 32

IFS-TM5 modelAssim uses IASI CO columns

GFAS doesn‘t capture burningevents or emission magnitudeleading to „observed“ COenhancement.

MACC pages at ECMWF

SCIAMACHY val. at IUP

BC service at Jülich

MOZAIC/IAGOS val. at Toulouse

Development of tropospheric GRG services

GEMS-RAQ model: MM5/CAMx

Climatic Boundaries vs. MOZART-GRG f026 boundaries

Comparison with MOZAIC

Use of global boundary conditions for regionalAQ modeling

WP3 Status Slide 35

D 3.1Inventory of tropospheric composition datasets for validation in NRT and delayed mode

M6(+M24)

 

D 3.2Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation chain for MACC integrated tropospheric reactive trace gas service

M6 onwards

D 3.3Improved tropospheric chemistry model based on GEMS validation results

M6

D 3.4Service product catalogue and web documentation of tropospheric reactive trace gases evaluation

M12(+M24)

D 3.5Updated tropospheric chemistry model code for use with vegetation fire emissions from D-FIRE

M12

D 3.6Updated tropospheric chemistry model code for use with anthropogenic and natural emissions from D-EMIS

M18Delay 3M

• Definition of upgrades in D-FIRE products

• Needed to fix stratospheric ozone issue

D 3.7Tropospheric reactive gases case study model results and evaluation results

M18   In preparation

WP3 Status Slide 36

WP3 Deliverable Status

o

WP 4 objective:

Begin the development of a fully coupled chemistry transport model based on the ECMWF integrated forecasting system in order to eliminate inconsistencies arising from the coupled set-up in GEMS

WP4 Status Slide 37

Task G-RG_4.1: Design study for the integrated CT-IFS

Task G-RG_4.2: Analysis of IFS transport parameterisations for use with reactive gases

Task G-RG_4.3: Implementation of simplified linear chemistry schemes for CO and its adjoint code

Task G-RG_4.4: Preparation and implementation of chemistry modules

Task G-RG_4.5: Preparation and implementation of emission modules

Task G-RG_4.6: Preparation and implementation of deposition modules

Task G-RG_4.7: Testing and optimizing of the integrated CT-IFS

WP4 Status Slide 38

• Expanded IFS-code to run with 100+ tracers

• Scripts to run C-IFS and to archive results (not in mars yet)

• Global mass, source and sink diagnostic

• Global tracer mass fixer (same relative change in MMR at all grid points to ensure conservation)

• Implementation of TM5 chemistry package for troposphere (provided by KNMI)

• Cariolle-scheme for stratospheric ozone

• Integration of wet-deposition and lightning modules

• Successful completion of first one-year run with good results

WP4 Status Slide 39

C-IFS Development Status

Area-averaged 222Rnprofiles at 12 UTC…

… and at 24 UTC.

C-IFS TM5

222Rn simulation with C-IFS

900 hPa

WP4 Status Slide 40

ObsTM5C-IFS

WP4 Status Slide 41

Surface ozone simulation with C-IFS

Differences to be expected, because of different wet deposition/dry deposition schemes

•Species emitted at surface are increased by non-conservation of semi-lagrange advection•Ozone (and other stratospheric species) tend to be decreased

WP4 Status Slide 42

IFS Tracer Transport

• NO lightning emissions• Three different parameterisations for flash rate density using cloud

height (Price and Rind, 1993) , convective precipitation (Meijer et al, 2001) or updraft velocity & ice cloud height (P. Lopez) implemented

• Wet deposition• Simple parameterisation based on precipitation fluxes and clouds

• Re-evaporation and in-cloud scavenging in convection routine

• Dry deposition• Constant surface flux in vertical diffusion

• More explicit treatment

• Photolysis rates• Look up-table with corrections for cloud optical depth

• Use (extended) SW radiation scheme

C-IFS physical chemistry parameterisations

WP4 Status Slide 43

Price and Rind, 1993Conv. Cloud height

Meijer 2001 (TM5)Conv. Precip.

Lopez p.c.Updraft & Ice Cloud height

ObservationsLIS OTD

WP4 Status Slide 44

Lightning NOx: Flash frequency parameterisations

Lopez p.c.Updraft & Ice Cloud height

ObservationsLIS OTD

WP4 Status Slide 45

Lightning NOx: Flash frequency parameterisations

Grewe et al., 2001Updraft & Conv. Cloud height

ECHAM5-MOZ

• Implement MOZART and MOCAGE chemistry modules

• Consolidate input/output data handling for C-IFS

• Continue work on mass diagnostics and simple mass fixers • Family advection to reduce gradients

• Test different interpolation options

• Improve wet-deposition scheme and lightning

• Implement and test linear CO scheme

• Prepare C-IFS for data assimilation

WP4 Status Slide 46

C-IFS development plans for P2

D 4.1Planning document on design outline and interface standards of CT-IFS

M4  

D 4.2 IFS transport study results M12(Delay 6 M)

• Acute work on Eyjafjalla eruption/plume modeling

• Testing more extensive due to use of more realistic tracers (TM5 chemistry)

D 4.3Simplified linear chemistry scheme for CO and adjoint code integrated

M16Code delivered from CERFACS, but not yet implemented

D 4.4 Chemistry module integrated M16   TM5 module is integrated and tested

D 4.5 Emission module integrated M20C-IFS interfaced with inventories and GFAS data

o

WP4 Status Slide 47

WP4 Deliverable Status

o

( )

( )

Outstanding issues:

• Harmonisation („one-stop access“) of tropospheric GRG products

• Underestimation of CO got worse in MACC D-EMIS, D-FIRE

• Testing and use of additional/new satellite observations

• Some elements of validation work have not functioned very efficiently new VAL sub project in MACC-2

• Further development of C-IFS remains challenging (but also exciting)

Outstanding Issues Slide 48

Additional slides

Joint work CNRM-BIRA on strat. chemistry

BIRA wanted to upgrade PSC chemistry representation in BASCOE. In the process, an error was found in MOCAGE PSC routine (from the REPROBUS original scheme), impacting specially HNO3 in the polar vortex : sedimentation and thus removal was previously much underestimated.

HN

O3,

zona

l mon

thly

mea

n 09

/200

1

oldnew

ppbv

new

GAW site list for NRT validation (CO and O3)

  Station NRT interval lat lon alt

1 Hohenpeissenberg 1 day 47.8 11.02 985

2 Jungfraujoch 1 day (12h) 46.55 7.99 3580

3 Monte Cimone 1 month 44.18 10.70 2165

4 Moussala 1 month 42.2 25.40 2925

5 Ryori 1 month 39.03 141.82 260.00

6 Waliguan 1 week 36.28 100.90 3842

7 Santa Cruz (Tenerife) 1 day 28.5 -16.30 50

8 Izana (Tenerife) 1 day 28.3 -16.50 2367

9 Yonagunijima 1 month 24.47 123.02 30.00

10 Minamitorishima 1 month 24.29 153.98 8.00

11 Assekrem/Tamanraset 1 month 23.17 5.42 2728

12 Cape Point 1 month -34.35 18.48 230

13 Ushuaia 1 month -54.85 -68.32 18.00

14 Neumayer 1 month -70.65 -8.25 42

New sites since GEMS

Submission via FTP

Submission via Email

Currently no data transfer

Offline validation performed for following runs:

f93i: 09/2009 – 07/2010

f1kd: 10/2008 – 08/2009

f9nd: 11/2009 – 07/2010

fdrl: 05/2010 – 07/2010

GAW NRT data delivery

WP3 Status Slide 51

Comparison of F9nd (IFS TM5) and F93i (IFS MOZ) for Antarctica (Neumayer):

SH Summer SH Winter

f9nd does capture the level of O3, however, in the winter time the correlation decreases.

strong underestimation of surface O3 for Neumayer in winter and summer!

NRT validation with GAW data

Jan 2004

Jul 2004

Anthropogenic CO emission ratio MACC/GEMS

• Emission and deposition preprocessor SUMO

• Reggrid original emission datasets to working domain and convert to a reduced set of activity

sector (optionally apply month/season/day temporal profiles)

• Global or regional datasets accepted

• 1 file per specie and per activity sector (NetCDF format) at domain resolution

• Aggregate emission to model species (optionally apply hourly profile) and calculate

deposition velocities

• Meteorological fields from ECMWF or Météo-France for deposition velocities

• Wesely Ganzeveld-modified parameterization

• DV and emissions at domain resolution in 1 or 2 separate files (NetCDF format)

• !!! Output fields are in lat-lon coordinates !!!

Prep-Emis

SUMO

january july

SUMO

IFS-CTM(TM5)

O3 deposition velocities in cm.s-1

(monthly means)