global pulses conclave 2012
TRANSCRIPT
Global Pulses Conclave 2012
BRIAN CLANCEY
WWW.STATPUB.COM
Meeting Future Food Needs
• World population growth may slow from 1% to 0.5% by 2050
• Average net field crop output needs to rise at least 1% per year through 2050
• Ethanol from grain may be unsustainable
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Meeting Future Food Needs(1991 = 100)
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Food supplyneeds to grow
over 1% per year
0.5% Annual Yield Increase(kilograms per person per year)
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Food shortagesand very high prices
Trend Growth in Average Yield(kilograms per person per year)
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Periods of tight supply, high prices
Global Crop Production Outlook
• Pulses are a minor crop the world’s perspective
• Canada’s pulse breeders think they can add an average 1% per year to yield with new varieties
• Pulses do not get same attention from plant breeders as rice, soybeans, or corn
• Long term yield gains may be smaller than 1%
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Trend Growth in Field Crops(million metric tons)
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Global Pulse Production Ranges(million metric tons)
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Global Pulse Output Trend(million metric tons)
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Global Pulse Usage Ranges(kilograms per person)
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Per capita pulse usage is trending lower
Global Pulse Usage Trend(kilograms per person - cumulative)
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Medium Term Outlook
• Pulse production will rise in 2012
• Export prices should trend lower through 2014
• Easing prices may lead to lower pulse area in 2015 and 2016
• Export prices should start firming by 2016
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World Pulse Forecast(million metric tons)
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Field Pea 2012 Outlook
• Canadian acreage will be up because of good movement and strong prices
• U.S. acreage will rise as farmers bring flooded land back into production
• France’s acreage will fall because the feed pea subsidy has been removed
• Prices should be lower on average
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World Dry Pea Forecast(million metric tons)
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World Field Pea Production(metric tons)
5-Year 2011 2012
Australia 287,788 301,000 311,900
Canada 3,084,720 2,115,600 2,786,000
United States 662,000 255,000 650,000
France 754,109 676,000 728,747
Ukraine 464,340 365,300 323,600
Other 4,719,553 4,738,276 4,709,787
World 9,972,511 8,451,176 9,510,035
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The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
Canada Pea Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2011-12 2012-13
Production 2,923,000 2,115,600 2,786,000
Carry In 444,000 535,000 210,000
Stocks 3,399,000 2,669,200 3,014,800
Exports 2,389,000 2,115,000 2,296,000
All Domestic 709,000 344,200 514,800
Ending Stocks 301,000 200,000 250,000
Stocks to Use 9.7 % 8.1 % 9.1 %
FOB Price $294 $390 $275 - $350
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The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
Yellow Pea Price Comparison(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
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Lentil 2012 Outlook
• Canadian acreage will drop because of poor prices
• U.S. acreage will rise as farmers bring flooded land back into production
• Prices should be lower on average for green lentils but unchanged to firmer for red
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World Lentil Forecast(million metric tons)
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World Lentil Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2011 2012
Australia 161,847 306,000 307,000
Canada 1,181,917 1,947,100 1,333,000
United States 217,046 392,679 346,000
Turkey 433,576 447,400 402,000
Other 1,581,817 1,129,010 1,543,808
World 3,576,202 4,222,189 3,931,808
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The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
Canada Lentil Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2011-12 2012-13
Production 1,182,000 1,531,900 1,174,000
Carry In 176,000 750,000 560,000
Stocks 1,366,000 2,295,200 1,741,000
Exports 967,000 1,191,000 1,228,000
All Domestic 167,000 445,200 222,000
Ending Stocks 232,000 560,000 320,000
Stocks to Use 20.5 % 32.3 % 22.5 %
Laird FOB Price $816 $890 $675 - $850
Red FOB Price $763 $639 $625 - $700
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The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
Lentil Price Comparison(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
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Dry Bean 2012 Outlook
• N. American will jump in response to bullish local markets this season
• Argentina will plant more in response to problems with Brazil’s harvest
• World prices may be unchanged to slightly easier next season
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World Dry Bean Forecast(million metric tons)
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World Dry Bean Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2011 2012
China 1,540,000 1,460,000 1,520,000
Argentina 3,360,000 320,000 330,000
Myanmar 4,170,000 3,890,000 4,240,000
North America 2,590,000 1,640,000 2,620,000
Other 9,760,000 12,240,000 11,980,000
World 21,420,000 19,550,000 20,690,000
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The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
Edible Bean Price Comparison(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
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Chickpea 2012 Outlook
• Mexican drought limited acreage expansion this year
• India’s desi crop is officially lower than last year while kabuli may end up higher
• Kabuli prices may be lower on average in coming months
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World Chickpea Forecast(million metric tons)
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World Chickpea Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2011 2012
Kabuli
Other 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
India 320,000 390,000 400,000
Turkey 480,000 400,000 370,000
Mexico 150,000 40,000 80,000
All Kabuli 1,950,000 1,830,000 1,850,000
Desi 11,280,000 11,280,000 11,440,000
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The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11
Chickpea Price Comparison(U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port)
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Factors Driving Prices
• Competition for acres and consumer demand
• U.S. biofuel policy
• India’s population will grow faster than world average through 2050
• China’s population will peak in 15 years
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Battle For Acres
• Farmers will not grow pulses unless they can make as much or more money than growing other crops
• Consumers will not buy more pulses unless they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods
• As a result, all crops follow same price pattern
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Field Crop Index vs. Crude Oil(2002-2004 = 100)
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Shifting Population
• World population growth will slow from 1% today to around 0.5% by 2050
• India’s population will grow faster than world average through 2050
• China’s population will peak in 15 years
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China’s Declining Food Needs(1991 = 100)
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Food needs will peak in 2020-30 as population peaks
India’s Growing Food Needs(1991 = 100)
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As average age and incomes rise food needs will grow
India Pulse Demand Trend(million metric tons)
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Usage could fluctuate3 million MT per year
Conclusion
• Biofuel mandates may be unsustainable
• Plant breeders need to increase average yields and handling system needs to reduce losses
• Battle for acres will keep pulse prices relatively strong
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