global prevalence of dementia and prevention strategy · 2014. 12. 12. · global prevalence of...
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Global prevalence of dementia and
prevention strategy
Centre for Global Mental HealthKing’s College [email protected]
Martin Prince
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Global Observatory for Ageing and Dementia Care
Martin PrinceEmiliano AlbaneseMaelenn Guerchet
Matthew Prina
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Global Observatory for Ageing and Dementia Care
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Why is risk reduction important?
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Numbers of people with dementia by world region (2015-2050)
Europe Western
Europe Central and EasternNorth AmericaLatin America & CaribbeanAfrica and the Middle East
Asia (high income)Asia (low and middle income)World
8.20
4.6618.78
47.47
135.463.04
4.73
19.623.93
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
4.7811.7416.02
12.35
3.24
63.16
8.68
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Global Distribution of Incident Dementia (7.7 million new cases per year)
WHO Report 2012 – Dementia a Public Health Priority
One new case every 4 seconds!
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Background – concept and methods
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Risk factors and causes
• If A is associated with B, this does not demonstrate that A causes B– Chance– Bias– Confounding– Reverse causality
• Sources of evidence– Longitudinal cohort studies (bias and reverse causality)– Randomised controlled trials (confounding)– Systematic reviews and meta-analyses (consistency)– Biological studies (mechanisms)
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A lifecourse perspective
Birth Death
Clinical AD onset
Childhood Early adult Mid life Late life
Pathological AD onset
Develops DeclinesBrain
In utero
???
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Changes in body mass index from mid to late-life for those with and without late-life dementia onset
Stewart et al. Arch Neurol. 2005
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What did we do?
• Determined the scope• Appointed review groups
• Identified reviews• Read all the papers• Updated the search• Critically appraised the evidence• Considered need for new systematic review/ meta-analysis• Summarised the evidence – consistency/ strength
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Domains (lifecourse)
• Developmental and early-life factors• Psychological factors• Lifestyle• Cardiovascular risk factors
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Key findings
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RR 1.97 (1.67-2.32)Heterogeneity 78%
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Reverse causality? (Bigger effect of depression with shorter follow-up periods)
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RR 1.50 (1.33-1.70)Heterogeneity 0%
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Robust findings
Exposure Period
Education Early lifeHypertension MidlifeDiabetes Mid- to late-lifeSmoking Mid- to late-life
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Mechanisms
• Cognitive/ brain reserve (education)
• Vascular disease (hypertension, smoking, diabetes)
– Additive effect in combination with AD pathology?
– Interactive effect promoting AD pathology?
– Other (non-vascular) effects on AD pathology?
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What have we achieved?
• We started with a long list of potential risk factors• We have reduced these to just four where the evidence is
strongest• This does not mean that other factors may not also be
modifiable risk factors– Less consistent evidence– Insufficiently studied– No/ few long-term cohort studies (reverse causality)– Confounding or bias likely explanations– Need for RCTs where feasible
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Future Research• Dementia as an outcome• Systematic reviews and meta-analyses
– More collaboration using primary data– Standardisation (harmonisation)– Quality control (!)– Open source documentation
• RCTs in late-life– Diabetes (glycemic) control– Physical activity– Cognitive stimulation– Micronutrient deficiency– Complex interventions for at risk groups (www.edpi.org)
• Monitoring the course of the epidemic