global outlook for renewable energy · 2017. 7. 5. · clingendael international energy programme...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Outlook for Renewable Energy
Erasmus Energy Day, 29 June 2017
Maria van der Hoeven,
Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), The Hague, Netherlands
The North SeasOffshore Grid
Sustainable Diversifiation of the
EU’s Gas Supply
The Energiewende and Germany’sIndustrial Policy
Changing Energy Markets
• At CIEP we’ve been working on changing energy markets for a while
• These and more publications are available at www.clingendaelenergy.com
Solar PV in a Strategic World
The Transition of the Residential Heating
System
Continuing and rising energy needs?
Source: IEA (2016)
• While energy related greenhouse gas emissions need to decline...
• ... global (non-OECD) energy demand is projected to grow.
Four Trends
Decentralization & Consumer Empowerment
Digitization as a Key Enabler
Greater Integrations & Service-Orientation
Decarbonization
Graphic courtesy of 629PHOTOGRAPHY.COM
The Present Reality
Source: REN21 (2017)
• While renewables show significant progress and opportunities…• … it’s important to understand today’s global energy mix and RES shares.
Global Final Energy Consumption in 2015
Policy Initiatives
1. Support innovation in market integration
2. Stable and sustainable policy frameworks
3. Reduce the cost of financing and improve risk profile
Graphic courtesy of freepik.com
Recent RES cost developments
• Levelised cost of electricity from selected renewable energy sources• Figures showing Q3 2009 to H2 2016, USD per MWh
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2017) Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Biomass incineration
Solar thermal(parabolic trough with storage)
Solar PV
USD
/MW
h
A few examples…
Peru, onshore wind37.30 $/MWh
NL, offshore wind80 $/MWh
Denmark, offshore wind55 $/MWh
Dubai, solar PV29.90 $/MWh
Zambia, solar PV60 $/MWh
Graphic courtesy of www.worldmapsonline.comFigures from Frankfurt School / UNEP (2017)
Public Instruments & Mechanisms
Source: WEF (2017)
Energy infrastructures as enablers
Graphics courtesy of TenneT and Port of Rotterdam
Holistic Approach
Source: Carbon Trust (2015)
Concluding Remarks
• Consistent and stable policy framework
• Involvement of industry and financial sector is key
• Societal impact of energy transition should be addressed
• Innovation is crucial
• A CO2 price should be meaningful
The Future is in Our Hands
Image courtesy of Phil Masters @ flickr.com
Concluding Remarks
Thank youfor your attention
Maria van der Hoeven,
Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), The Hague, Netherlands