Global Modeling and Assimilation OfficeNASA/GSFC

GMAO

Merger of NSIPP and the DAO offices at GSFC

•Science areas:• Subseasonal-to-Seasonal-to-Decadal Prediction• Weather prediction• Chemistry-climate connections• Hydrological Cycle

• Technical areas: satellite data assimilation: usage, new mission design, instrument team products

• Agency Partnerships: NOAA/NCEP, JCSDA, ESMF, NCAR, GFDL, NOAA/CDEP

Merger of NSIPP and the DAO offices at GSFC

•Science areas:• Subseasonal-to-Seasonal-to-Decadal Prediction• Weather prediction• Chemistry-climate connections• Hydrological Cycle

• Technical areas: satellite data assimilation: usage, new mission design, instrument team products

• Agency Partnerships: NOAA/NCEP, JCSDA, ESMF, NCAR, GFDL, NOAA/CDEP

Ensemble mean precipitation and ground temperature anomalies forecast for NDJ

2003

Rienecker, Suarez, et al.

GSFC/GMAO (NSIPP)

Seasonal forecasts with NSIPP CGCMv1:• High resolution: 2° AGCM & 1/3° OGCM• Ocean initial states from ocean data assimilation• Ensembles used to indicate uncertainty

Nino3 SST forecast, initialized in September 2003

NSIPP CGCMv1 Forecast Ensembles NSIPP CGCMv1 Forecast Ensembles

12 month Coupled Integrations: 18 ensemble members

AGCM (AMIP forced with Reynolds SST)

Ocean DAS (Surface wind analysis from R. Atlas, Reynolds SST, Temperature profiles by TAO)

Ocean state estimate perturbations:’s randomly from snapshots

Atmospheric state perturbations: ’s randomly from previous integrations

AGCM: NSIPP1 AGCM, 2 x 2.5 x L34LSM: Mosaic (SVAT)OGCM: Poseidon v4, 1/3 x 5/8 x L27, with embedded mixed layer physicsCGCM: Full coupling, once per day

ODAS: Optimal Interpolation of in situ temperature profiles - daily, salinity adjustment (Troccoli & Haines), Jan1993-present, starting in every month

NASA/GMAO Atmospheric Model

• NASA’s Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) version 1, Bacmeister et al. (2001)

• Operational prediction model and tested up to ½ degree resolutions

Numerics Finite Difference (Suarez and Takacs 1995)

Cumulus convection

Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (Moorthi and Suarez 1992)

More detailed condensate budget in the updraft

Large-scale condensation

Diagnostic cloud scheme based on RH, similar to Slingo (1987)

PBL/vertical diffusion

Local diffusion by Louis et al. (1982)

Radiation Chou and Suarez (1999) for SW and Chou and Suarez (1994) for LW

Others Gravity wave drag (Zhou et al., 1996)Mosaic LSM (Koster and Suarez, 1992,1996)

New approach: - weather capable climate model and climate-reliable weather model

– Unified Goddard modeling system (GEOS-5)• AGCM: FVcore + evolving physics: combining GSFC developments

with NCAR, GFDL collaborations• Working to include GISS under a common Goddard model “toolkit”

(with Code 930)• LSM: Catchment LSM + features required for carbon, NWP, long-term

climate

– Modular, ESMF-based development of atmospheric model and subcomponents

New approach: - weather capable climate model and climate-reliable weather model

– Unified Goddard modeling system (GEOS-5)• AGCM: FVcore + evolving physics: combining GSFC developments

with NCAR, GFDL collaborations• Working to include GISS under a common Goddard model “toolkit”

(with Code 930)• LSM: Catchment LSM + features required for carbon, NWP, long-term

climate

– Modular, ESMF-based development of atmospheric model and subcomponents

“Snapshot” of water vapor (white) and precipitation (orange) at 1/2 degree lat/lon resolution.