global land use and food in a finite world
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Global Land Use and Food in a Finite world. Workshop Transatlantic Academy, Washington, DC. Foodsecurity Competing claims on land Resource efficiency Smart policies. Number of hungry people (FAO). More factors are key. Complex linkages. 7. Competing claims in 1970 and 2010. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
1
Global Land Use and Food in a Finite world
Workshop Transatlantic Academy, Washington, DC
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
2
Foodsecurity Competing claims on
land Resource efficiency Smart policies
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
3
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
4
Number of hungry people (FAO)
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
5
More factors are key
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Complex linkages
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Competing claims in 1970 and 2010
Crop area12.9%
grazing area26.1%
forest area28.4%
built up area0.5%
other natural area
32.2%
Crop area10.5%
grazing area24.4%
forest area31.6%
built up area0.2%
other natural area
33.3%
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Potential of cropland expansion
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Biodiversity in 1970 and 2010
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Global agricultural area will level off
Huge uncertainties – climate– diet– yield
1980 2000 2020 20400
20
40
60
80
100
Grey area indicates 10-90th percentileliterature range
FAO/IMAGE IAASTD MEA
Baseline
Agric
ultu
ral a
rea
(Mkm
2 )
1980 2000 2020 20400
20
40
60
80
100
Nat
ural
are
a (M
km2 )
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Regional differences, change in crop area
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
OEC
D
Braz
il
Sout
h A
fric
a
Russ
ia
Indi
a
Chin
a
Indo
nesi
a
Rest
of
the
Wor
ld
Glo
bal
2010 = 100% 2020 2030 2040 2050
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Pressures on biodiversity up to 2050
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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The case of bioenergy Important role in mitigation
– However indirect emissions (fertilizer, transport, production)
Compete with other land use – Food prices– Biodiversity loss
1. Second generation bioenergy2. Sustainability criteria3. High yield versus extensive production4. Cascading
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Competing goals
Agriculture drives land use change
Land use change drives biodiversity loss
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Effects and points of intervention
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Effficiency forms a key factor in preserving biodiversity, while providing sufficient food for all
In order to provide sufficient food for all, more agricultural production is needed and
to meet the biodiversity goal, no further expansion of agricultural area allowed.
Four major issues– reduction of consumption– global management of land– growth of agricultural yields– the right price of food
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
19 28 November 2011EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context19
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
202020
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
21 28 November 2011EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context21
Loss of MSA reduced by enhanced RE; but not stopped#;
Additonal losses (until 2050!) in some regions due to bio-energy for climate mitigation
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Smart policies - general
No easy solutions– Age old problem of the commons– Major barriers
Not one size fits all – e.g. high yield versus extensive
Beware of trade-offs and look for synergy– e.g. bioenergy
Resource efficiency can bring you a long way but more is needed– Yield (water, fertilizer, management, seeds)
Reduce and reuse waste Lifestyle changes have a huge potential
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Major barriers to attain goals
Food security
Lack of safety nets and redistributive policiesEconomic growth performances in main food insecure regionsAppropriate entitlements of domestic farmers to access land and water
Agricultural productionPerverse subsidiesLack of knowledge
Terrestrial biodiversity
Indirect drivers difficult to influenceLimited knowledgeLimited awarenessIneffective management of protected areas
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
24
Smart policies - general
No easy solutions– Age old problem of the commons– Major barriers
Not one size fits all – e.g. high yield versus extensive
Beware of trade-offs and look for synergy– e.g. bioenergy
Resource efficiency can bring you a long way but more is needed– Yield (water, fertilizer, management, seeds)
Reduce and reuse waste Lifestyle changes have a huge potential
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
25
Policy measuresproper prices – proper governments
Correct market failures– property rights, waterpricing, valuing biodiversity
Correct government failures– perverse subsidies, trade barriers
Improve access to knowledge and markets– e.g. infrastructure
Use dynamic society
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
26
Market access in agricultural areas
January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders
Global Land use and Food in a Finite World
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Policy measuresproper prices – proper governments
Correct market failures– property rights, waterpricing, valuing biodiversity
Correct government failures– perverse subsidies, trade barriers
Improve access to knowledge and markets– e.g. infrastructure
Use dynamic society