global lake temperature collaboration...global records of lake surface temperature reveal a century...

Global records of lake surface temperature reveal a century of warming

John D. Lenters, Ph.D.Senior Scientist, LimnoTech

Jordan S. Read, Sapna Sharma, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Stephanie Hampton, Derek Gray, Peter B. McIntyre, Simon J. Hook, Philipp Schneider,

Piet Verburg, Peter D. Blanken, and GLTC Contributors

http://laketemperature.org/

Global Lake Temperature Collaboration

GLTC ContributorsSapna Sharma, Derek K. Gray, Jordan S. Read, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Philipp Schneider, Anam Qudrat, Corinna Gries, SamanthaStefanoff, Stephanie E. Hampton, Simon Hook, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Peter B. McIntyre, Rita Adrian, Mathew G.Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Jay Austin, John Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin Brookes, Yuwei Chen, Robert Daly, Martin Dokulil,Bo Dong, Kye Ewing, Elvira de Eyto, David Hamilton, Karl Havens, Shane Haydon, Harald Hetzenauer, Jocelyne Heneberry, Amy L.Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Eric Hixson, Lyubov R. Izmest’eva, Benjamin M. Jones, Küllli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, Olivier Köster,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Michio Kumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, Linda May, Sally MacIntyre, Dörthe Müller‐Navarra,Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Noges, Tiina Noges, Pius Niederhauser, Ryan P. North, Andrew Paterson, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier,Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, Michela Rogora, Lars Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler,Geoffrey Schladow, Silke R. Schmidt, Tracey Schultz, Eugene A. Silow, Dietmar Straile, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, AriVoutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Craig E. Williamson, Kara H. Woo, Catherine M. O'Reilly, Sapna Sharma,Derek K. Gray, Stephanie E. Hampton, Jordan S. Read, Rex J. Rowley, Philipp Schneider, John D. Lenters, Peter B. McIntyre,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Dietmar Straile, Bo Dong, Rita Adrian, Mathew G. Allan, Orlane Anneville, LauriArvola, Jay Austin, John L. Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin D. Brookes, Elvira de Eyto, Martin T. Dokulil, David P. Hamilton, Karl Havens,Amy L. Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Simon Hook, Lyubov R. Izmest'eva, Klaus D. Jöhnk, Külli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, MichioKumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, David M. Livingstone, Sally MacIntyre, Linda May, John M. Melack, Dörthe C. Müller‐Navarra, Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Ryan P. North, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, MichelaRogora, Lars G. Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler, S. Geoffrey Schladow, MartinSchmid, Silke R. Schmidt, Eugene Silow, M. Evren Soylu, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, Ari Voutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Craig E.Williamson, Guoqing Zhang, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Martin T. Dokulil, Gesa A.Weyhenmeyer, Philipp Schneider, Sapna Sharma, Elvira de Eyto, Rita Adrian, Scott N. Higgins, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Nico Salmaso,Dietmar Straille, Bo Dong, Piet Verburg, George Leshkevich, Peter B. McIntyre, Jordan S. Read, Silke Schmidt, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Mathew Allan, Martin Schmid, Geoffrey Schladow, Sally MacIntyre, David Hamilton, Alon Rimmer,Orlane Anneville, Stephanie E. Hampton, Claude Duguay, Amy L. Hetherington, Dendy D. Lofton, James A. Rusak, Nihar R. Samal,Noemi Barabas, Justin Brookes, Robert C. Wilson, Derek K. Gray, Simon Hook, Mehmet E. Soylu

Acknowledgements We would like to thank the numerous scientists and institutions that contributed

data and expertise to the GLTC project (http://laketemperature.org/). Special thanks to the GLTC data analysis sub‐group: Derek Gray, Stephanie

Hampton, Peter McIntyre, Catherine O’Reilly, Jordan Read, Sapna Sharma, Noemi Barabas, Dendy Lofton, R. J. Rowley, Evren Soylu, and Piet Verburg

We gratefully acknowledge NSF, NASA, and the University of Nebraska‐Lincoln for funding the GLTC workshop, as well as other institutions for their support.


• Background and motivation• Lake Superior: Big lake, big changes• The “puzzle” of rapid lake warming• Toward a solution: A new, global initiative• Implications for evaporation, water levels• Summary

Talk outline

Warming rate (full period):+0.07 °C/decade

A known known: Our climate is changing

Warming rate (1985‐2009):+0.17 °C/decade

A known known: Our climate is changing

(Magnuson et al.,2000; Science)

Global trends in freeze / thaw dates

A known known: Lakes are losing ice

Schneider, P., and S. J. Hook (2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37.

A known known: Lakes are warming

Schneider, P., and S. J. Hook (2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37.

“hotspots”

A known known: Lakes are warming

• Changes in lake evaporation, which also affects …‐Water balance‐ Temperature‐ Stratification‐ Lake chemistry‐ Vertical mixing‐ Lake ecology

Other impacts are becoming evident

• Variations in lake level, which also affects …‐Water quality / municipal water supplies‐ Recreational boating / fishing‐ Shoreline erosion / flooding‐ Commercial shipping ‐ Lake ecology‐ Hydropower‐ Tourism

Other impacts are becoming evident

How do we know?

• Measurements‐ Field data‐ Satellite data‐ Long‐term monitoring programs

• Models‐ Physical, hydrological, biological‐ Climate models‐ Lake models

Examples of field sites

Arctic thermokarst lakes

Lake Tahoe

July 9, 2011

Semi‐arid western Nebraska

Sparkling Lake, Wisconsin

X

Lake SuperiorGreat Lakes Evaporation

Network (GLEN)


Talk outline

0

5

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25

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45

0

2

4

6

8

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12

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Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Ice cover (%)

Water te

mpe

rature (°C) and

evapo

ratio

n (cm/m

on)

Month

Evaporation

Ice Cover

Water Temperature

Lake Superior mean annual cycle (1973‐2010)

Van Cleave et al. (2014)

Seasonal interactions: Lake Superior

Lake Superior: Highly variable ice cover

MODIS

February 19, 2014

Lake Superior: Highly variable ice cover

February 2012

MODIS

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( ! "#$%&

! ) "*+, &

( ‐ "*+, &

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! "1 +2&

! ' "1 +2&

( ! "1 +2&

! ) "342&

( ‐ "342&

! ) "1 +5&

! 67( &! 67) &! 677&! 676&! 68! &! 68( &! 68) &! 687&! 686&! 66! &! 66( &! 66) &! 667&! 666&9‐ ‐ ! &9‐ ‐ ( &9‐ ‐ ) &9‐ ‐ 7&9‐ ‐ 6&

: 8‐ ; &

: . ‐ ; &

: 9‐ ; &

: ! ‐ ; &

: ) ; &

2+4?@+>$A&

Lake Superior is losing ice

112 days 74 days34% drop inice duration

April 16

December 26

March 28

January 14


Lake Superior is warming rapidly

9.8°C

12.5°C

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Water te

mpe

rature (°C)

July/Aug/Sept (JAS)


Spence et al. (2013) Journal of Hydrometeorology

2008 09

2010 11 2009/10

2011/12

Lake Superior evaporation(direct measurements at Stannard Rock Lighthouse)

25 cm

Great Lakes EvaporationNetwork (GLEN)

Record warmth in 2012

Low water levels, shifting seasons

Shifting seasons

2012

Great Lakes ice cover (1980‐2016)

High variability


Talk outline

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tren

d (°

C/d

ecad

e)

Lake Superior temperature trends (1948-99)

Tair' Tw'

Lenters (2004) – J. Great Lakes Res.

Why the rapid warming of Lake Superior?Is it a summer response to winter warming?

Why the rapid warming of Lake Superior?Is it an ice‐albedo feedback?

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021, 2007

Air: dTair/dt ~ +0.5 °C/decadeWater: dTs/dt ~ +1.1 °C/decade

Ice‐albedo feedback? Not for these lakes …GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L22402, doi:10.1029/2009GL040846, 2009


http://greatlakesmapping.org

Summerwarmingrate (°C/yr)1994‐2010

Bathymetry

http://greatlakesmapping.org

Maybe an ice‐albedo feedback is not even needed?

Are lakes somehow “hypersensitive”to climate change?

14

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18

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20

21

22

23

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20062

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Tempe

rature (°C)

Tempe

rature differen

ce (°C)

Water

Air

Difference


Sparkling Lake temperature trends(July–September mean)

X

Is the rapid warming just a “deep lake” phenomenon? Nope.

SW E HLW

SWnet + LWnet – E – H = S/t


Sparkling Lake, WI

SWnet + LWnet – E – H = S/t


Sparkling Lake, WI

Not likely … consider the lake energy balance: Climate warms (i.e., higher Tair)

Lake warms (i.e., higher Twater)

Higher evaporation (and evaporative cooling)

Lake warming is limited (i.e., Twater


Not likely.

Then what??

Ice‐albedo feedback? Not for some lakes.Only a “deep lake” phenomenon? No.


Talk outline

Origins of a new global initiative:

The Global Lake TemperatureCollaboration (GLTC)

GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaboration– http://laketemperature.org/

X

Origins of the GLTC initiative

October 2010

X

Origins of the GLTC initiativeSchneider, P., and S. J. Hook (2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37.

October 2010


Special session: Global Trends in Lake Temperature andAssociated Impacts on Lacustrine Systems


GLTC Workshop (June 2012)Lincoln, Nebraska

Fundamental question:

What are the patterns, mechanisms, and impacts of global lakewarming / cooling?

GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaboration– http://laketemperature.org/

(from both satellite and in situ measurements)

Number of lakes in the GLTC database

N Sat.

In situBoth

GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaborationWorkshop

June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NE

Number of lakes in the GLTC databaseN

Sat.

In situ

Both

Recent warming rates (1985‐2009)

June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NE

Temperature trend (°C dec‐1)

Num

ber o

f lakes

Distribution of LST trends (1985‐2009)

‐2.0 ‐1.5 ‐1.0 ‐0.5 0.0 +0.5 +1.0 + 1.5

Mean LST trend:+0.4 °C dec‐1

(95% CI: 0.2 – 0.6)

90% of lakesare warming

Distribution of LST trends(1985‐2009)

Lake Superior


June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NELake surface temperature (LST) trends

(1985‐2009; summer only)

O’Reilly et al. (2015)


June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NEMany factors influence warming rates

O’Reilly et al. (2015)


Talk outline

Implications for evaporation• Open‐water evaporation can be very different from terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET)‐ Different drivers‐ Different variability‐ Different impacts

water level impacts

P

ET

E

Implications for evaporation

water

air

Vaporpressuregradient

(temperature = Tw)

(temperature = Ta)

vaporpressure

E

e

Ontario

Lake Superior

Michigan

Minnesota

Wisconsin

StannardRock

GraniteIsland

Measuring evaporation on large lakes

Evaporation monitoring stations:‐ June 2008: Lake Superior (Stannard Rock*)‐ July 2009: Lake Superior (Granite Island)

* International UpperGreat Lakes Study(IUGLS)

Instrumentation

Granite Island, Michigan

Ontario

Lake Superior

Michigan

Minnesota

Wisconsin

StannardRock

GraniteIsland

Evaporation monitoring stations:‐ June 2008: Lake Superior (Stannard Rock*)‐ July 2009: Lake Superior (Granite Island)


Real‐time data and imagery

Real‐time data and imagery

Time‐lapse video

Ontario

Lake Superior

Michigan

Minnesota

Wisconsin

StannardRock

GraniteIsland

SpectacleReef

Evaporation monitoring stations:‐ June 2008: Lake Superior (Stannard Rock*)‐ July 2009: Lake Superior (Granite Island)‐ Sept 2009: Lake Huron (Spectacle Reef*)‐May 2012: Lake Erie (Long Point*)‐ June 2012: Lake Michigan (White Shoal*)

WhiteShoal


Growing the network

The current GLEN network

Evaporationstations

Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)

More info on GLEN

Expansion to buoys, drifters, and ships

Model results show increasing evaporation

Watras et al. (2014)

GWMI‐HuronSuperior

Water levels

Model results show increasing evaporation

Summary• First global compilation of satellite / in situ lake temperature data• 250+ lakes in the GLTC database; most covering at least 25 years• ~90% of the lakes in the database are warming (1985‐2009)• Satellite / in situ data show similar rates of lake surface warming• “Global” LST has increased ~2 standard deviations since 1900• Great Lakes are warming rapidly (esp. Superior and Huron)


Summary• Most rapid warming is in recent decades (~0.4 °C dec‐1)• Some changes are non‐linear (e.g., Lake Superior regime shift)• Interdecadal variability in global LST is coherent with Tair,

lake ice, and global patterns of solar dimming / brightening• Important implications for lake evaporation, water levels• Long‐term, global datasets provide valuable perspective


Acknowledgementshttp://laketemperature.org/

Many thanks to the numerous scientists and institutions that contributed data and expertise to the GLTC project (http://laketemperature.org/).

Special thanks to the GLTC data analysis sub‐group: Derek Gray, Stephanie Hampton, Peter McIntyre, Catherine O’Reilly, Jordan Read, Sapna Sharma, Noemi Barabas, Dendy Lofton, R. J. Rowley, Evren Soylu, and Piet Verburg

We gratefully acknowledge NSF, NASA, and the University of Nebraska‐Lincoln for funding the GLTC workshop, as well as other institutions for their support.

GLTC ContributorsSapna Sharma, Derek K. Gray, Jordan S. Read, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Philipp Schneider, Anam Qudrat, Corinna Gries, SamanthaStefanoff, Stephanie E. Hampton, Simon Hook, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Peter B. McIntyre, Rita Adrian, Mathew G.Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Jay Austin, John Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin Brookes, Yuwei Chen, Robert Daly, Martin Dokulil,Bo Dong, Kye Ewing, Elvira de Eyto, David Hamilton, Karl Havens, Shane Haydon, Harald Hetzenauer, Jocelyne Heneberry, Amy L.Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Eric Hixson, Lyubov R. Izmest’eva, Benjamin M. Jones, Küllli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, Olivier Köster,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Michio Kumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, Linda May, Sally MacIntyre, Dörthe Müller‐Navarra,Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Noges, Tiina Noges, Pius Niederhauser, Ryan P. North, Andrew Paterson, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier,Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, Michela Rogora, Lars Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler,Geoffrey Schladow, Silke R. Schmidt, Tracey Schultz, Eugene A. Silow, Dietmar Straile, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, AriVoutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Craig E. Williamson, Kara H. Woo, Catherine M. O'Reilly, Sapna Sharma,Derek K. Gray, Stephanie E. Hampton, Jordan S. Read, Rex J. Rowley, Philipp Schneider, John D. Lenters, Peter B. McIntyre,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Dietmar Straile, Bo Dong, Rita Adrian, Mathew G. Allan, Orlane Anneville, LauriArvola, Jay Austin, John L. Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin D. Brookes, Elvira de Eyto, Martin T. Dokulil, David P. Hamilton, Karl Havens,Amy L. Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Simon Hook, Lyubov R. Izmest'eva, Klaus D. Jöhnk, Külli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, MichioKumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, David M. Livingstone, Sally MacIntyre, Linda May, John M. Melack, Dörthe C. Müller‐Navarra, Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Ryan P. North, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, MichelaRogora, Lars G. Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler, S. Geoffrey Schladow, MartinSchmid, Silke R. Schmidt, Eugene Silow, M. Evren Soylu, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, Ari Voutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Craig E.Williamson, Guoqing Zhang, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Martin T. Dokulil, Gesa A.Weyhenmeyer, Philipp Schneider, Sapna Sharma, Elvira de Eyto, Rita Adrian, Scott N. Higgins, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Nico Salmaso,Dietmar Straille, Bo Dong, Piet Verburg, George Leshkevich, Peter B. McIntyre, Jordan S. Read, Silke Schmidt, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Mathew Allan, Martin Schmid, Geoffrey Schladow, Sally MacIntyre, David Hamilton, Alon Rimmer,Orlane Anneville, Stephanie E. Hampton, Claude Duguay, Amy L. Hetherington, Dendy D. Lofton, James A. Rusak, Nihar R. Samal,Noemi Barabas, Justin Brookes, Robert C. Wilson, Derek K. Gray, Simon Hook, Mehmet E. Soylu

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