global integrated polar prediction system (gipps) 1 thomas jung alfred wegener institute, helmholtz...
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Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)
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Thomas JungAlfred Wegener Institute,
Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
25 February 2014
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A short introduction to GIPPS Implementation of GIPPS
• WWRP Polar Prediction Project• WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative
• Presentation by Vladimir Ryabinin Coordination
Outline
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Global Integrated Polar Prediction System• Global: International effort and poles have
global influences• Integrated: Interconnection between systems
and system will be integrated (research, observations and services)
• Polar prediction will be central Three time scales
• Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal)• Medium-term predictability (seasonal to
decadal)• Long-term projection of ice mass balance and
sea level (centuries)
GIPPS
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Improved understand of key processes that drive polar weather and climate
Improved models Improved data assimilation systems Optimized observing system Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term
planning)
Benefits
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The WWRP Polar Prediction Project(2013-2022)
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Some statements from the report: The Arctic is likely to attract
substantial investment over the coming decade ($100 bn)
The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions
Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic need to be closed urgently
http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/reports/climate-change/arctic-report-2012
Opportunities and Risks
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PPP Mission Statement
„Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal“
An important addition:
„This constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)“
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The WWRP-PPP Steering Group
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Jonny Day (APECS liasion) Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)
SG4, Boulder, 1-3 October 2013
Thomas Jung (chair) Peter Bauer David Bromwich Paco Doblas-Reyes Chris Fairall Marika Holland Trond Iversen Brian Mills Pertti Nurmi Don Perovich Phil Reid Ian Renfrew Gregory Smith Gunilla Svensson Mikhail Tolstykh
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WWRP-PPP Plans
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Research Areas
Source: PPP Implementation Plan
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Connections – p24 of PPP IP
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Observational Challenges
Polar data coverage of conventional observations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012
Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMP and PILOT
P. Bauer (ECMWF)
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Role of Sea Ice in Weather Prediction
T2m Difference: Observed Minus Persisted Sea Ice
P. Bauer (ECMWF)
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Sea ice prediction
MITgcm @ 4km resolution, Simulation desribed in Nguyen et al (2012) and Rignot et al. (2012)
Mean September sea ice concentrations (1979-2007)
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PPP Flagship Activities
Sea ice prediction• Explore predictability• Develop prediction systems
Linkages between polar regions and lower-latitudes• Determine mechanisms and strengths• Implications for predictions in the mid-latitudes
Improved availability of observations from polar regions
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
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Preparation Phase2013 to mid-2017
Consolidation Phase
mid-2019 to 2022Community engagement
Liaise with funders
Align with otherplanned activities
Preparatory research
Summer schoolWorkshops
Develop imple- mentation plan
Intensive observing periods
Dedicated model experiments
Research into use & value of forecasts
Intensive verification effort
Model developments
Dedicated reanalyses
Operational implementation
YOPP publications
Data denial experiments
Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017
YOPP mid- 2017 to mid-
2019
Consolidation Phase mid-
2019 to 2022
YOPP conference
Summer school
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
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YOPP Key Elements
Comprehensive observational snapshot• In situ and satellite data• Observing system design (data denial experiments)• Supersites (model grid boxes MOSAiC)
Model development (e.g. Transpose-CMIP)Community data sets (reforecasts, special archiving
etc.)Frontier experiments (e.g. high-resolution modelling)
See draft YOPP Implementation Plan – Inf. 12-1
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Immediate Plans – ASSW / AOS-2 Helsinki
8 April 2014One day YOPP Planning meeting – emphasis on
observations and many partners invited (including IICWG)
9 April 2014 Thomas Jung will take part in Stakeholders Panel
as part of AOS-2 on 9 April “Town Hall Meeting” with panel discussing
PPP/YOPP in evening (panelists include Gilbert Brunet, Thomas Jung and Mark Drinkwater)
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Immediate PlansWWOSC & Linkages
16-21 August 2014PPP session at World WeatherOpen Science Conference, MontréalPPP-SG-5 meeting in association with this
will “finalise” YOPP Plan 10-12 December 2014
International Workshop on Polar-lower Latitudes Linkages and Their Role in Weather and Climate Prediction – being planned for Barcelona. Invitation only; collaboration between PPP and PCPI
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PPP – Take home messges
Polar prediction is a topic of increasing importanceDecision making in the high-latitudes Implications for the lower-latitudes
PPP promotes research in polar prediction PPP also promotes research into the use and value of
polar predictions in decision making PPP has a strong educational component PPP flagship themes
Sea ice predictionLinkages between polar and non-polar regionsYOPP (see draft YOPP Implementation Plan)
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Coordination
EC-PORS International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI)PPP and PCPI
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International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction
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Recommendations of EC-PORS to Cg-17
Points Raised Earlier:Regular feedback on progressCoordination between PPP and PCPI, and role of
ICO for Polar Prediction at AWICoordination with other organisationsPromote GIPPS with
Member states (Trust Fund) Funding agencies
Consider GIPPS funding from regular WMO budget
Suggestion: Draft proposal to be discussed and possibly revised in
Research break out groupDiscussion of the outcome with all panel members
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Thank you!
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