global impacts of climate change and potentials for adaptation and mitigation through ecosystem...
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COP15, IUCN Side Event, Copenhagen, 2009
Dr. Camille ParmesanProfessor, Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, USA
Global impacts of Climate Changeand Potentials for Adaptation and
Mitigation through EcosystemRestoration
Parmesan & Yohe, Nature 2003
Observed Changes in Wild Plants and Animals >1,700 Species Globally
52% changingwhere they live
CHANGED AS PREDICTEDSTABLE
OPPOSITE OF PREDICTION
Evidence for local, population-level evolution(Micro-evolution) - several !
No evidence for species-level evolution(Macro-evolution):
• No evidence for new “super-hot-adapted” mutations
• No evidence for any species living in new climate space
• No response to artificial selection to tolerate more extreme climatic conditions than found in wild
(fruit flies, butterflies) (Hoffmann et al 2003, Crozier 2003 a,b; Jordano et al 2000)
Ecological Responses Dominate -Evolution has not Affected Species’
Fundamental Climate NichesParmesan AREES 2006
Declines and Range Contractions of SeaIce-Species in Arctic and Antarctic
2007NOAA
ArcticRinged
Seal
Adelie &Emperorpenguins
Antarctic
2002-2007NOAA
Ice-dependentpenguins decliningby 70 - 95%
Ice-dependentpenguins increasing orsmaller declines (<20%)
Smith et al. Bioscience 1999; Fraser et al. Polar Biol. 1992; Emslie et al. Ant. Science 1998
goldentoad Costa Rica
ApolloEurope& Nepal
whitelemuroidpossumAustralia
pika, USA& Nepal
Mountaintop Species
• Many species have contractedupward
• First extinctions
Parmesan AREES 2006
E.e. quino - The only existing populations with historic densities are newly discovered sites further east and at higher elevations than historically-recorded distribution
(> 4500 ft, yellow circles)
Climate Change Drove a Shift in LandsDeserving Highest Conservation Priority
Parmesan Nature 1996,USFWS 2009
Hoegh-guldberg et al. Science 2008
Solutions:
• Assisted Colonization
• Restoration to create habitat corridors
• Creation of new habitats adapted to future climate
Impediments: Conservation laws & tools focus on return to historic state
Problem: Species’ Forced Out of Traditional Homelands & Protected Areas
Restoration of Vernal Pool habitats in southernCalifornia
USFWS, Recon Environmental Inc.
Photoscourtesy
MarkDodero,Project
Manager &Sr
Biologist
•Landscape topography molded (shallow depressioncreated
• Appropriate soils brought in (build clay lens)
• Water storage, filtration & flow altered
YEAR 3
• Self-sustaining
• Occasionalweeding neededto keep outexotics
• Habitat for 5endangered vernalpool species
• Cost: $ 1m/acre
10 ft
Native bunchgrasses Deep Root system
C-storage (by 52%)
Water storage
Resistance to drought
and heat waves
Nutritional value
Adapted to grazing
Only carbon-neutral crop
Restoration of Native American Prairie- Help biodiversity adapt- Help mitigate climate change
NativeLittle bluestemFranzluebbers 2005, Fargione et al. 2008, Poteet unpubl,
Indonesia Brazil USA
Full Carbon Budget Shows Prairie Carbon-NeutralConversion of Lands to Biofuel Production
Emission of carbonfrom soil
Loss of carbonabove ground
Fargione et al. 2008 Science