global imbalances and global financial turmoils dr. sompop manarungsan faculty of economics and...
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Global Imbalances and Global Financial Turmoils
Dr. Sompop Manarungsan
Faculty of Economics
and Chinese Studies Center
Chulalongkorn University
Bangkok 10330, Thailand
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Regrouping of Countries According to Their Economic Structure :
- Collection Economy
- Production - based Economy
- Service - based Economy
- Speculation Economy
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Causes of Global Imbalances :
- Expansion of Speculation Economy due to Excessive Money Supply
- US$
- other currencies
- Increases of Speculators
- Types of Speculators
- Hedge Funds
- Mutual Funds- Pension Funds- Private Equity Funds
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- Sovereign Wealth Funds
- Investment Banks and Finance
Companies
- Other Fund Managers
- Speculation Activities
- Money Market
- Capital Market
- Commodities Market
- Property
- etc.
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Sources of Excessive US Dollar Supply
- US’s Expansionary Monetary Policy
- Reduction of Federal Funds Rate
- Reduction of Discount Rate
- US’s Expansionary Fiscal Policy
- Deficit Budget
- Extremely Low Household Savings in the USA Owing to High Domestic Consumption
- Injection of US$ Supply into Economic Cycle.
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- Increases of “Petro Dollar” due to Rising Oil Prices
- Causes of Rising Oil Prices:
- Increasing Oil Demand
- Speculation
- Increases of “Basic-Commodities Dollar” Owing to Rising Basic – Commodities Prices around the Globe
- Huge Increases of Foreign Reserves
- Increases of Property Prices
- Speculative Bubble Boom in Real Estate Sector
- Increasing Roles of Property Funds
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- Rising Speculation in the Financial Sector
- Money Market
- Currency market
- Capital Market
- Stock market
- Bond market
Unprecedented Increases of Money Supply, Particularly the US dollar
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Quickening International Capital Flows
Rising Global Global Financial
Imbalances Turmoils
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Major Causes of Global Excessive US Dollar Supply
1. US’s Expansionary Monetary Policy
2. US’s Expansionary Fiscal Policy
3. US’s Speculative Bubble Expansion
- Property Sector
Causing “Subprime Crisis”
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Triggering Speculation in :
- Basic Commodities Market
- Energy Market
- Money Market
- Capital Market
- Others
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China’s Roles to Rebalance the Global Economy
- China’s Domestic Demand
- China’s Internal Economic Development
- China’s Roles as the Center of Global Supply Chain
Decoupling of World’s Real sector Economy From the US Economy:
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- Less Dependent on US’s Imports
- Less Dependent on US’s Exports
Less Dependent to US Dollar