global high-resolution population denominators (worldpop ... · global population distribution...
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Alessandro Sorichetta
Global High-Resolution Population Denominators (WorldPop Global)
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Partners and donors
• WorldPop: Research Program in Dept Geography & Environment focused on methods for improving the demographic evidence base in low/middle income countries
• Flowminder: Non-profit foundation working with data providers and international/government agencies to operationalize and scale research in support of vulnerable populationsand sustainable development in low/middle income countries
• 50+ staff; focus on data science and integration in fields of spatial demography and mobility to support disease, disaster and development applications
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WorldPop Global Project
Linard C.
Gaughan A. , F. Stevens, P. Sinha, and P. Reed
Tatem A., A. Sorichetta, S. Saxton, M. Bondarenko,C. Lloyd, D. Kerr, H. Chamberlain, S. Dutka, J. Nieves,C. Pezzulo, A. Carioli, and S. Hanspal
Sadler J. , I. Wadlock, J. Austin, and G. Hornby
Yetman G., L. Pistolesi, J. Mills, O. Borkovska, K.MacManus, and S. Adamo
University of Southampton
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Leave no-one behind: no goal should be met unless it is met for everyone
‘Endeavour to reach the furthest behind first’
A focus on achieving x,y,z everywhere = geography is important
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Health Metrics Being Gridded Globally…
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For Multiple Points in Time
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Age and Sex Components
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www.worldpop.org
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Modeling Population Distribution• Using a RF-based dasymetrically approach to disaggregate subnational
census-based figures^, #
^Stevens et al, 2015; #Sorichetta et al., 2015
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Global Urban Footprint
Global Human Settlement Layer
High Resolution Settlement Datasets
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Quantitative Model Comparison
Stevens et al (under review)
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Mean household size
Mapping buildings/settlements is a
valuable initial step
But, buildings do not directly translate to people
Multiple factors drive differences in distributions
and demographics
Importance of integrating multiple data sources
Buildings Vs People
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Multitemporal• Using a temporally-explicit modeling framework#
#Gaughan et al., 2016; Linard et al., 2017
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Gaughan et al (2016) Nature Sci Data; Linard et al (2013) Applied Geography; Schneider et al (2015) Env Res Letters; Linard et al (2017) IJ Digital Earth
Mapping Population Change
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Age/Sex Structure Mapping
Pezzulo et al., Nature Scientific Data, 2017
Population countsAge/sex proportions Age/sex counts
• Combining population count datasetswith the subnational age/sex proportiondatasets
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Global Project Objectives
• Annual high-resolution gridded global populationdistribution datasets from 2000 to 2020
• Disaggregated by 5-year age groups (from 0-12months, 1-4, to 80+) split by gender
• High-resolution co-registered gridded global covariate datasets for usein population studies (both temporally-explicit and time-invariant)
• Annual high-resolution gridded global settlement datasets (2000-2020)
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L0 Mastergrid (Template)
L1 MASTERGRID
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Continuous and Categorical Covariates
DMSP-OLS
VIIRS
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Global Built-Settlement Growth Model
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Global Built-Settlement Growth Model Validation
Delineating urban extentfor multiple points in timeusing temporal HRRSarchived data (bothoptical and SAR) of 48African cities
Ouagadougou
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Age/Sex Proportion DataCollecting data from multiple sources:
• Census data• EUROSTAT• U.S. Census Bureau• IPUMSI (census microdata)• Household Surveys (eg, DHS)• UNPD (National)
2000 2020
eg) Albania
DHS 2008
EUROSTAT 2014-2015-2016
WB 2013
WB 2005 Census 2011
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HPC
Random Forests code
Pipeline/Workflow : HPC+Postgres DB/FTP+RF
GeoServer WCS
http://worldpopdb.westeurope.cloudapp.azure.com/geoserver/ows?service=WCS&version=2.0.1&request=GetCapabilitieshttp://worldpopdb.westeurope.cloudapp.azure.com/
Postgres DB/FTP
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• Testing multiple sampling approach for the RF parametrization(Nov 2017)
• Global population distribution dataset for 2000 (Jan 2018)
• Built-Settlement Growth Model datasets (Feb 2018)
• Age/sex subnational structure for all countries and years (Sep2018)
• Functional web portal providing free and open access to alldemographic datasets and accompanying metadata (Dec 2018)
Major Project Timeline
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But… (Census Data Limitations)
Years since last census
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Top-Down Vs Bottom-Up Approach
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Children under 5yrs
Afghanistan Nigeria
SomaliaDesign sample frame
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www.gridsample.orgThomson et al (2017) Int J Health Geographics
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www.worldpop.org www.flowminder.org@WorldPopProject @Flowminder
Thank You!
Hope to chat withyou tomorrow atthe World Cafe’!