global futures forum (washington, d.c.)

Michell Zappa@envisioningtech

[email protected]

Over the last day we have looked at dozens of intriguing emerging technologies and have also started thinking about what they mean for the future of security.

I’m here today to talk a little bit about my approach for looking at these technologies by taking a step back, looking at how they relate, and to envision scenarios we might expect based on current trends.

envisioningtechnology

I’ve published a visualization called “Envisioning Technology”.

ENERGYROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALSSENSORS GEOTECHSPACEINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET

Commercialspaceflight

Inductivechargers

Fuel cells

Bio-enhancedfuels

Tidal turbines

Additivemanufacturing

Graphene

Self-healingmaterials

Personalgene sequencing

Organprinting

Smarttoys

Appliancerobots

Volumetric(3D) screens

Flexible screens

Tablets

Boards

Biometricsensors

Depthimaging

Near-fieldcommunication

Pervasivevideo

capture

Speechrecognition

Augmentedreality

Gesturerecognition

Multitouch

4G

Cloudcomputing

Cyber-warfare

Meshnetworking

AI INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH

The key idea is to look at all sorts of emerging technologies.I started by organizing my research across eleven areas, “from bits to atoms”s, to speak.

Machine augmentedcognition

2030

2040

Domesticrobots

Embodiedavatars

Swarmrobotics

Utilityfog

Reprogrammablechips

Skin-embeddedscreens

Retinalscreens

Optogenetics

Neuro-informatics

Immersivevirtual reality

Interplanetaryinternet

Exocortex

Remotepresence

Machine-augmentedcognition

2012

2020

2030

2040

The next step is spreading out the observations on a timeline. We cover speculations for approximately the next 30 years.

ROBOTICSARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE

SENSORSINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET

Smarttoys

Appliancerobots


Flexible screens

Tablets

Boards

Biometricsensors

Depthimaging


Pervasivevideo

capture

Speechrecognition

Augmentedreality

Gesturerecognition

Multitouch

4G

Cloudcomputing

Cyber-warfare

Meshnetworking

Softwareagents

High-frequencytrading

Natural languageinterpretation

Weatherengineering

Sub-orbitalspaceflight

Spacetourism

Multi-segmentedsmart grids

fuels

Piezo-electricity

Photvoltaicglass

Personalfabricators

Meta-materials

Opticalinvisibility cloaks

In-vitromeat

Personalizedmedicine

Smart drugs

Syntheticblood

Roboticsurgery

Self-drivingvehicles

Powered exoskeleton

Unmannedaerial

Molecularassembler

Nanowires

Artificialretinas

Gene therapy

Hybridassisted limbs

Swarmrobotics


Retinalscreens

Optogenetics

Neuro-informatics


Remotepresence


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2030

2040

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2019

2020

2030

2040

ENERGYROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALSARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE

SENSORS GEOTECH QUANTITATIVE FORECASTSSPACEINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET

World population 8 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

BRICs GDP overtakes the G7Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj

Petabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc

Exabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

Terabit internet speed standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

World population reaches 9 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc

Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok

Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben

Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04

InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5

Global online population: ± 2 billionConnected devices: ±10 billion

Global online population: 4-5 billionConnected devices: 30-50 billion

$150 Hard disk: ±200 TbStandard RAM: ±750Gb

Global online population: ± 2.5 billionConnected devices: ±15 billion

$ 1.000 computer reaches thecapacity of the human brain

(± 1015 calculations per second)

Verticalfarming

Weatherengineering

Sea-steading

Desalination

Carbonsequestration

Climateengineering

Arcologies



Lunaroutpost

Marsmission

Solarsail

Spaceelevator

Spacetourism

Inductivechargers

Thoriumreactor

Travelingwave reactor

Fuel cells


Biomechanicalharvesting

Bio-enhancedfuels

Artificialphotosynthesis

Space-basedsolar power

Piezo-electricity

Photvoltaicglass

Nano-generators

Enernet

Tidal turbines

Programmablematter

Personalfabricators

Molecularassembler

Meta-materials


Graphene


Biomaterials

Carbonnanotubes


Nanowires

Anti-agingdrugs

Stem-cell treatments

In-vitromeat

Nanomedicine

Artificialretinas


Syntheticbiology


Gene therapy


Smart drugs

Syntheticblood

Organprinting

Smarttoys

Roboticsurgery

Appliancerobots


Domesticrobots

Powered exoskeleton

Embodiedavatars

Swarmrobotics

Utilityfog

Unmannedaerial

vehicles

Fabric-embeddedscreens

Reprogrammablechips

Pico-projectors


Flexible screens


Tablets

Boards

Retinalscreens

Eyewear-embeddedscreens

Context-awarecomputing

Smartpower meters

Biometricsensors

Machinevision

Optogenetics

Depthimaging

Biomarkers

Neuro-informatics


Pervasivevideo

capture

Computationalphotography

Speechrecognition

Haptics

4K

Augmentedreality

Gesturerecognition

Multitouch


Holography

Telepresence

4G

5G

Cloudcomputing


Exocortex

Virtualcurrencies

Cyber-warfare

Meshnetworking

Reputationeconomy

Remotepresence

VR-onlylifeforms


Softwareagents



Proceduralstorytelling

Machinetranslation

You can see it as an “interdisciplinary roadmap for the future.”


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2030

2040

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2019

2020

2030

2040

ENERGYROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALSARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE

SENSORS GEOTECH QUANTITATIVE FORECASTSSPACEINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET

World population 8 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

BRICs GDP overtakes the G7Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj

Petabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc

Exabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

Terabit internet speed standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

World population reaches 9 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc

Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok

Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben

Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04

InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5

Global online population: ± 2 billionConnected devices: ±10 billion

Global online population: 4-5 billionConnected devices: 30-50 billion

$150 Hard disk: ±200 TbStandard RAM: ±750Gb

Global online population: ± 2.5 billionConnected devices: ±15 billion

$ 1.000 computer reaches thecapacity of the human brain

(± 1015 calculations per second)

Verticalfarming

Weatherengineering

Sea-steading

Desalination

Carbonsequestration

Climateengineering

Arcologies



Lunaroutpost

Marsmission

Solarsail

Spaceelevator

Spacetourism

Inductivechargers

Thoriumreactor

Travelingwave reactor

Fuel cells


Biomechanicalharvesting

Bio-enhancedfuels

Artificialphotosynthesis

Space-basedsolar power

Piezo-electricity

Photvoltaicglass

Nano-generators

Enernet

Tidal turbines

Programmablematter

Personalfabricators

Molecularassembler

Meta-materials


Graphene


Biomaterials

Carbonnanotubes


Nanowires

Anti-agingdrugs

Stem-cell treatments

In-vitromeat

Nanomedicine

Artificialretinas


Syntheticbiology


Gene therapy


Smart drugs

Syntheticblood

Organprinting

Smarttoys

Roboticsurgery

Appliancerobots


Domesticrobots

Powered exoskeleton

Embodiedavatars

Swarmrobotics

Utilityfog

Unmannedaerial

vehicles

Fabric-embeddedscreens

Reprogrammablechips

Pico-projectors


Flexible screens


Tablets

Boards

Retinalscreens

Eyewear-embeddedscreens

Context-awarecomputing

Smartpower meters

Biometricsensors

Machinevision

Optogenetics

Depthimaging

Biomarkers

Neuro-informatics


Pervasivevideo

capture

Computationalphotography

Speechrecognition

Haptics

4K

Augmentedreality

Gesturerecognition

Multitouch


Holography

Telepresence

4G

5G

Cloudcomputing


Exocortex

Virtualcurrencies

Cyber-warfare

Meshnetworking

Reputationeconomy

Remotepresence

VR-onlylifeforms


Softwareagents



Proceduralstorytelling

Machinetranslation

But I think it’s true worth is displayed when you start connecting the dots between the individual technologies and start thinking about the critical paths between them.

GPS

GPS GPS

GPS

One way of seeing intersections between different technologies is from looking backwards in time. Take an existing product or service and flesh out the individual components that were necessary for it to be invented.

What makes YouTube possible? The combination of: ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, a proliferation of internet users and fast internet access.

GPS

GPS

Same thing for a service like 23andMe. It was only possible after the proliferation of fast processing, automatic sequencing machines, optical sensors and a degree of social network analysis.

Scenario #1:Surveillance

Today I’ll go over three brief sci-fi scenarios based on extrapolating existing trends.

A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors: Experiments performed with a team of nano quadrotors at the GRASP Lab, University of Pennsylvania

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4

The rise in drone journalism.

Moscow protests

http://dronejournalism.tumblr.com/post/14136093865/more-on-the-moscow-protest-photos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9vOor1xmVDs

The Xbox Kinect - a brilliant example of depth imaging (or computer vision) popularizing as a toy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QrnwoO1-8A

This is how the Kinect sees the world.

Drone cameras

Swarm robotics

Computer vision

So where do you end up in a future where these three technologies are prominent?

Imagine a future with a swarm of thumbnail-sized flying nanocopters with 3D cameras on them.

“IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”

Imagine a cloud of cameras. Unstoppable, able to see everything. Drop it into a hostage situation or use it for spying. The possibilities and risks are endless.


And if you doubt the possibility, check the AR.Drone Parrot, a $300 helicopter toy with a camera which is controlled by an iPhone app.

Scenario #2:Urban intelligence

Outboard brain: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/st_thompson

We are outsourcing as much information as possible from our brains into our portable devices. Phone numbers, addresses, directions, etc.

And we are outsourcing the decision-making process to our devices.Here is a WiFi-enabled umbrella which flashes if it’s going to rain. No need to look up the weather.

We’re moving toward an internet of things, where all infrastructure is interdependent and connected.Sometimes called the “smart city”.

The surge of personal agents.

Coupled with context-aware computers which know where we are.

Smart infrastructure

Personal agents

Contextual computing

“DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”

I call this trend “tell me what to do”. A scenario where the computer, or the network, is smart enough to guide you through your day. Tell you which road to take based on traffic patterns, notify you when a friend is nearby, coordinate your calendar, etc.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/


http://www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/

Scenario #3:Self-organization

Mobile phones generally work by connecting wirelessly to microcells. It’s a distributed but centralized network.

We are seeing the rise of mesh networks, or mobile ad-hoc networks. Instead of being centralized around antennas, each node becomes a relay. This means mobile phones with this technology can communicate without any existing infrastructure in place.

“In essence, Mobile Hotspots seeks to provide cell-tower-class performance

without the infrastructure.”

And DARPA is already working on this technology.

http://www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2012/02/10.aspx

Likewise, we usually think of energy as a centralized process.

But with the rise of photovoltaic capacity in solar cells, we’re quickly reaching the point where that’s no longer necessary.

Look at the rising lines. Photovoltaic efficiency rises yearly.

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/39544/

$799.99

And finally, smartphones are generally seen as expensive.

$

But the trend is for the price of all electronics to drop quickly over time.

Mesh networking

Photovoltaics

Affordable smartphones

“AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”

The takeaway? Imagine a cheap smartphone that works entirely off the grid. Communicates with anyone on the network, and is impossible to censor. Now imagine airdropping those into a country where communications have been shut down by the government.


Given the right political conditions and level of tension, you could potentially set off a revolution like what we saw around the middle east in 2011.


Without naming names, I’m sure you can all think of a couple of regions where these airdrops could come in handy.




Again, this is just a handful of scenarios based on less than a dozen actual technologies.

The other characteristic about technology is how it’s always progressing.A century ago, humanity had never even taken flight. Now, we take it for granted. (1903)

Same with medical imaging. (1895)

Connect the dots. See where technologies intersect.

Thank you.

@envisioningtech [email protected]

envisioningtech.com