Global Environmental Change and Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS)Food Systems (GECAFS)

Caribbean Food System Project: Caribbean Food System Project:DSS Potential & Considerations DSS Potential & Considerations

Slides 1 –19Slides 1 –19

Ranjit Singh & Adrian TrotmanRanjit Singh & Adrian Trotman

Slides 19-25Slides 19-25

Mike BrklacichMike Brklacich

The Caribbean Region

Regional CharacterisationRegional Characterisation

Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Belize)Belize)

Diverse cultures, environments and food provision Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systemssystems

Great dependence on food importsGreat dependence on food imports Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food

sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide revenuesectors (e.g. minerals) to provide revenue Susceptibility to weather extremesSusceptibility to weather extremes Susceptibility to changes in preferential export Susceptibility to changes in preferential export

marketsmarkets Weak regional-level institutional connectivityWeak regional-level institutional connectivity

Major Sources of Foreign Major Sources of Foreign Exchange:Exchange:

Agricultural exportsAgricultural exports TourismTourism Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the

energy sector is dominant:energy sector is dominant: OilOil Gas (LNG)Gas (LNG) MethanolMethanol AmmoniaAmmonia

Caribbean Agricultural Caribbean Agricultural Exports Dominated by Exports Dominated by

Traditional Commodities:Traditional Commodities: Major: Major: (sold under preferential market)(sold under preferential market)

Sugar Sugar BananasBananas

Other: Other: (sold under non-preferential market)(sold under non-preferential market) RiceRice Coffee beansCoffee beans Cocoa beansCocoa beans

Caribbean Food Imports Caribbean Food Imports Dominated By:Dominated By:

Cereal: wheat & corn Cereal: wheat & corn Food & livestock feedFood & livestock feed

Oils: soyabean and cornOils: soyabean and corn Meat ProductsMeat Products

The Caribbean Region: A Net The Caribbean Region: A Net Importer of FoodImporter of Food

(US $ Billion)(US $ Billion)

19991999 20002000

CARICOMCARICOM ImportsImports 2.9562.956 2.0612.061

ExportsExports 1.0921.092 1.2231.223

CaribbeanCaribbean ImportsImports 3.3503.350

ExportsExports 1.9471.947

Priority Policy Goals for CARICOMPriority Policy Goals for CARICOM

Food securityFood security Enhancing productivity and international Enhancing productivity and international

competitiveness in agriculturecompetitiveness in agriculture Food safetyFood safety Rural employmentRural employment Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector

and rural communitiesand rural communities

Regional Response: ChallengesRegional Response: Challenges

Diversification challenges:Diversification challenges: Weak regional policy mechanismsWeak regional policy mechanisms Difficulty of achieving economics of scaleDifficulty of achieving economics of scale

Production characterized by small fragmented farmsProduction characterized by small fragmented farms

Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and labour-saving technologylabour-saving technology

Market access/penetration constraintsMarket access/penetration constraints Shipping/handling costsShipping/handling costs Quality issuesQuality issues Lack of critical export volumesLack of critical export volumes

Regional Response: Challenges Regional Response: Challenges (Continued)(Continued)

Rapid conversion of best arable lands to Rapid conversion of best arable lands to housing/built developmenthousing/built development

Problem of losses from crop/livestock larcenyProblem of losses from crop/livestock larceny Declining water resource availabilityDeclining water resource availability

Degradation of watershedsDegradation of watersheds

Weak R&D and Innovation SupportWeak R&D and Innovation Support Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourismWeak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism

Aspects of GEC of particular concern to Aspects of GEC of particular concern to the Caribbean regionthe Caribbean region

Changing climate variabilityChanging climate variability Changes in mean climate (including global Changes in mean climate (including global

change)change) Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking

of tropical cyclonesof tropical cyclones and other extreme weather and other extreme weather eventsevents

Sea level riseSea level rise GEC and social impacts on land and water GEC and social impacts on land and water

resources and availabilityresources and availability

Caribbean Food Systems ProjectCaribbean Food Systems Project

A Phased ApproachA Phased Approach

PhasesPhases

Phase I: Identification of Policy Issues &Phase I: Identification of Policy Issues &Research Qs (2001-2003)Research Qs (2001-2003)

Phase II: Prototype Development & Demo (2003-Phase II: Prototype Development & Demo (2003-2005)2005)

Phase III – Development & Application of Phase III – Development & Application of GECAFS-Carib DSS (2005+)GECAFS-Carib DSS (2005+)

Phase IPhase IOverarching GECAFS QuestionsOverarching GECAFS Questions

Theme 1:Theme 1: How will GEC (especially land degradation, How will GEC (especially land degradation, variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature, variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature, tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of food systems in the Caribbean?food systems in the Caribbean?

Theme 2:Theme 2: What combinations of policy and technical What combinations of policy and technical diversification in food harvested and traded for local diversification in food harvested and traded for local consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would best provide effective adaptation strategies?best provide effective adaptation strategies?

Theme 3:Theme 3: What would be the consequences of these What would be the consequences of these combinations on national and regional food provision, local combinations on national and regional food provision, local livelihoods and natural resource degradation?livelihoods and natural resource degradation?

Story lines developed for two spatial levels:Story lines developed for two spatial levels:Local and RegionalLocal and Regional

STORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVELSTORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVEL

Target: Food systems in Target: Food systems in resource-poor communities resource-poor communities based on fishing and locally-based on fishing and locally-produced food crops.produced food crops.

Aim: To reduce food system Aim: To reduce food system vulnerability, especially in vulnerability, especially in relation to changes in climate relation to changes in climate variability.variability.

STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL LEVELLEVEL

Target: Caribbean regional food Target: Caribbean regional food provision.provision.

Aim:Aim: To develop regional-To develop regional-level strategies to reduce the level strategies to reduce the additional additional complications GEC complications GEC would bring to regional food would bring to regional food provision, given changing provision, given changing preferential export markets.preferential export markets.

GECAFS QuestionsGECAFS QuestionsLocal LevelLocal Level

Theme 1Theme 1 How would changes in climate variability and How would changes in climate variability and water availability affect food systems of communities on water availability affect food systems of communities on different islands?different islands?

Theme 2Theme 2 How would current national and regional policy How would current national and regional policy instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes, instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes, EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of technical options for diversifying cropping systems and technical options for diversifying cropping systems and fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?

Theme 3Theme 3 To what extent would these strategies affect To what extent would these strategies affect food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land management and associated changes in runoff affect coastal management and associated changes in runoff affect coastal fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology and fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology and tourism income based on this?tourism income based on this?

Theme 1Theme 1 What additional factors would GEC bring to What additional factors would GEC bring to destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what would be their impact on revenue generation from different would be their impact on revenue generation from different cash commodities?cash commodities?

Theme 2Theme 2 How could regional institutional changes best How could regional institutional changes best be introduced to sustain regional food provision by be introduced to sustain regional food provision by maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?

Theme 3Theme 3 How would changes in intra-regional trade, How would changes in intra-regional trade, and in policy and technical development at a regional level and in policy and technical development at a regional level affect development in individual islands, and how could affect development in individual islands, and how could such changes be promoted to conserve the natural such changes be promoted to conserve the natural resource base of the region?resource base of the region?

GECAFS QuestionsGECAFS QuestionsRegional LevelRegional Level

Phase IIPhase II

A synthesis and assessment of stresses A synthesis and assessment of stresses on Food Systems (IAI SGPII Proposal)on Food Systems (IAI SGPII Proposal)

Food system characterizationFood system characterization Development & demo of prototype Development & demo of prototype

models/DSS models/DSS Next steps assessmentNext steps assessment Consolidate links (regional scientists, Consolidate links (regional scientists,

policy makers, GEC community)policy makers, GEC community) A research proposal for follow-up activities A research proposal for follow-up activities

(Phase III).(Phase III).

Figure 1Characteristics of Case Study “Food Systems”†

Institutional factors that affect Case Study “Food

ProvisionӠ

Characterisation of Case Study Food Provision

Systems

Current environmental & socioeconomic

variability and trends

Synthesis & Assessment of stresses on Caribbean Food Systems

Overview and Country Reports

Inventory of relevant national and regional research (relative to

GECAFS goals)

Prototype Models of Caribbean Food Provision

(including Vulnerability & Impacts, Adaptation, Feedbacks)

Assessment of further information

needs

Prototype Decision Support Tools based on current variability and

limited future scenarios Phase IIIProposal

2 1*

3

4

5Deliverables

SCHEMATIC FOR GECAFS CARIBBEAN PROJECT - PHASE II

† As per GECAFS definitions

* Deliverable 1 can also contribute to IPCC etc.

----- Food System & Food Provision Case Study(s) ----- ---------- National & Regional Studies -------------

Possible Elements of Possible Elements of GECAFS-CARIB DSS ***GECAFS-CARIB DSS ***

““AT ALL STEPSAT ALL STEPS””: Scientist – policy advisers : Scientist – policy advisers /makers – NGO – other stakeholder dialogue/makers – NGO – other stakeholder dialogue

Analytical toolsAnalytical tools Data storage & mgtData storage & mgt Report preparation toolsReport preparation tools Communication strategiesCommunication strategies Human resourcesHuman resources

*** M Brk’s perspectives / reflections

Analytical ToolsAnalytical Tools Resource availability estimators (land, water, climate, Resource availability estimators (land, water, climate,

energy, labor, …) -> Resource utilization/competition energy, labor, …) -> Resource utilization/competition models, GIS applicationsmodels, GIS applications

Crop/fish prodt’y functionsCrop/fish prodt’y functions

Primary products (crop/fish/l’stock yield…)Primary products (crop/fish/l’stock yield…)

By-products (erosion, waste …)By-products (erosion, waste …) Food provision system vulnerability index (hot spots…Food provision system vulnerability index (hot spots…

convergence of multiple stressors)convergence of multiple stressors) Transport models (trade, runoff, …) -> GISTransport models (trade, runoff, …) -> GIS Trade-off assessment tools (progamming models (?) Trade-off assessment tools (progamming models (?)

to assess prodt’n, availability & accessibility)to assess prodt’n, availability & accessibility)

Data RequirementsData Requirements(flexible analytical units >> environ, political,???)(flexible analytical units >> environ, political,???)

(at 2003, 2015, 2030 & 20XX)(at 2003, 2015, 2030 & 20XX) Resource (land, water, climate, energy, Resource (land, water, climate, energy,

labor, …) suitability & availability for ag/fishlabor, …) suitability & availability for ag/fish National & regional food demandsNational & regional food demands Trade within regionTrade within region Regional imports/exports (ag, oil, tourism)Regional imports/exports (ag, oil, tourism) Production co-effs (yield, income, land Production co-effs (yield, income, land

degradation, ….)degradation, ….) Commodity pricesCommodity prices

Reporting ToolsReporting Tools<< policy maker dialogue re formats, timing, etc>><< policy maker dialogue re formats, timing, etc>>

Unit of analysis reconfiguration toolsUnit of analysis reconfiguration tools Data summary (resource availability, ..)Data summary (resource availability, ..) Input data & analytical output compression Input data & analytical output compression

toolstools Summary tables/displaysSummary tables/displays Mapping & other illustratorsMapping & other illustrators

Communication StrategiesCommunication Strategies

Scientific outputScientific output Policy maker summary reportsPolicy maker summary reports Regular, routine releases & contactsRegular, routine releases & contacts Media…multiple strategiesMedia…multiple strategies

Human ResourcesHuman Resources

Continuity & commitmentContinuity & commitment Maintenance vs applicationMaintenance vs application