global energy perspective present primary power mix future constraints imposed by sustainability...
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Global Energy Perspective
• Present Primary Power Mix
• Future Constraints Imposed by Sustainability
• Theoretical and Practical Energy Potential of Various Renewables
• Challenges to Exploit Renewables Economically on the Needed Scale
Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of TechnologyDivision of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering
Pasadena, CA 91125http://nsl.caltech.edu
Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998
4.52
2.7 2.96
0.286
1.21
0.2860.828
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
TW
Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas Hydro Renew
Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)
US Energy Flow -1999Net Primary Resource Consumption 102 Exajoules
Energy From Renewables, 1998
10-5
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
Elect Heat EtOH Wind Solar PVSolar Th.Low T Sol HtHydro Geoth Marine
Renewables
B
Elec Heat EtOH Wind Sol PV SolTh LowT Sol Hydro Geoth Marine
TW
Biomass
5E-5
1E-1
2E-3
1E-4
1.6E-3
3E-1
1E-2
7E-5
(in the U.S. in 2002)
1-4 ¢ 2.3-5.0 ¢ 6-8 ¢ 5-7 ¢
Today: Production Cost of Electricity
0
5
10
15
20
25
Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar
Cost6-7 ¢
25-50 ¢
Cos
t , ¢
/kW
-hr
Energy Costs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
$/GJ
Coal Oil Biomass Elect
Bra
zil E
urop
e
$0.05/kW-hr
www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea
Energy Reserves and Resources
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000
(Exa)J
OilRsv
OilRes
GasRsv
GasRes
CoalRsv
CoalRes
UnconvConv
Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)
Oil 40-78 51-151Gas 68-176 207-590Coal 224 2160
Rsv=ReservesRes=Resources
• Abundant, Inexpensive Resource Base of Fossil Fuels
• Renewables will not play a large role in primary power generation unless/until: technological/cost breakthroughs are achieved, or unpriced externalities are introduced (e.g., environmentally
-driven carbon taxes)
Conclusions
• “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”
• M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881, “Energy Implications of Future Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Content
adapted from IPCC 92 Report: Leggett, J. et. al. in Climate Change, The Supplementary Report to theScientific IPCC Assessment, 69-95, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992
Energy and Sustainability
Population Growth to 10 - 11 Billion People in 2050
Per Capita GDP Growthat 1.6% yr-1
Energy consumption perUnit of GDP declinesat 1.0% yr -1
1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW
Total Primary Power vs Year
M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881
Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix
Data from VostokIce Core
CO2 Emissions
Projected Carbon-Free Primary Power
• “These results underscore the pitfalls of “wait and see”.”
• Without policy incentives to overcome socioeconomic inertia, development of needed technologies will likely not occur soon enough to allow capitalization on a 10-30 TW scale by 2050
• “Researching, developing, and commercializing carbon-free primary power technologies capable of 10-30 TW by the mid-21st century could require efforts, perhaps international, pursued with the urgency of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Space Program.”
Hoffert et al.’s Conclusions
• If we need such large amounts of carbon-free power, then:
• current pricing is not the driver for year 2050 primary energy supply
• Hence,
• Examine energy potential of various forms of renewable energy
• Examine technologies and costs of various renewables
• Examine impact on secondary power infrastructure and energy utilization
Lewis’ Conclusions