global energy markets and politics and northeast asia 1-1 mikkal e... · 22% of electricity...
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Energy Markets and
Politics and Northeast Asia Mikkal E. Herberg
The National Bureau of Asian Research
“The 3rd Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum”
Seoul, Republic of Korea
December 17, 2015
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Global and Northeast Asian energy security
prospects are improving
Oil markets entering lower price period…but for how long?
LNG markets emerging from Fukushima price spike, demand surge, tight market balance
Russia shifting oil and gas export focus eastward…slowly
China oil and gas demand hyper-growth slowing
Japan nuclear increasingly likely to return at some scale taking some pressure off LNG supplies
But longer-term geopolitical and market imbalancce risks growing
Energy security concerns will return and energy cooperation will be needed
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Oil prices dropped as inventories built and
OPEC refused to cut
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US triggered the supply-demand imbalance:
now the world’s largest oil and gas producer
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US imports of oil have declined sharply
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Oil supplies converging on Asia….Asian crude oil
“Premium” goes to a discount of $5.00
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Iraq recovery has added to oversupply
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“Lower for longer” seems increasingly
likely
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LNG prices to Asia declining (normalizing?):
Slower demand growth, lower oil prices JCC
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LNG contract pricing becoming more flexible:
JCC to Henry Hub to Asian Hub?
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LNG spot markets adding supply and price flexibility
Portfolio supply growth should also add flexibility
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US gas production growth will drive LNG
exports to Asia
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Much more LNG on the way from Australia and
the U.S. – will strengthen diversification and
supplies from stable countries and transport
routes
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Primary energy demand growth 2.6% in 2014
compared to 6.6% 10-year average
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China energy demand growth slowing with
economic growth and changing economic
structure
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Long-term energy demand de-linking
from economic growth
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Japan nuclear developments suggest gradual
easing of LNG surge demand due to
Fukushima
The new energy plan 2015 targets nuclear to meet 20-
22% of electricity generation by 2030
Two nuclear power plants were restarted late 2015,
possibly two more on the way
With five recent older plant retirements, Japan has 43
nuclear plants with three under construction
Recent private Japanese estimates suggest 20-25 plants
eventually restarting
On average, each GW of nuclear added = 1 mmt/y LNG
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Russia pipeline gas to China likely to reduce LNG
needs…but will Russia follow through?
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But seeds of next oil supply imbalance
emerging for 2016-2017:
global demand 3 mmbd rise in 2015-16
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US tight oil production is rolling
over, drilling has more than halved
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Legacy declines are overtaking new
production
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IEA sees large tight oil declines at current
prices….little future growth at prices below
$80 per barrel
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Russian large oil field decline rates are
accelerating
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Prospect is for Russian oil output to start
declining after 2016 without lifting of
sanctions and higher prices
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Another geopolitical flashpoint in the
South China Sea
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Conclusion: significant risks remain for Northeast
Asian energy security outlook, especially oil
Deep cutbacks, delays in developing higher cost supplies: tight oil, oil sands, deepwater due to lower oil prices
Setting up for next supply, price shock
Global spare oil capacity down to 2.5 mmbd, nearly all Saudi
Further unexpected supply outages quickly drive prices higher
Dependence on Middle East oil grows the longer low prices persist
MidEast turmoil growing: Saudi Arabia being drawn into direct conflict for first time: Bahrain, Yemen, Syria
Saudi/Sunni vs. Iran/Shia conflict sharpening
Risks political, social stability with lower prices: Nigeria, Venezuela, Libya, Iraq