Global Energy Future 20 – 20 Vision

JOHN WALKER

TJ|H2b Analytical Services Ltd

UHVnet Conference

January 2017

The Past 160 years

World Growth in GDP, Energy, and Oil

Conventional and unconventional oil supply

Change is needed

In the circumference of a circle the beginning and end are common Heraclitus, 500 B.C.

Growth in the world economy requires more energy

The fuel mix is expected to change significantly

Carbon Emissions continue to rise

Global GDP is expected to more than double

Growth in fuel used for power generation

Hydro and nuclear set to grow steadily

Renewables continue to grow rapidly

Global vehicle fleet more than doubles

Impact of Energy Intensity

Market share in energy intensive goods

Key Uncertaintities

Case 1 Slower Global GDP Growth

Case 1 Demand growth slower across all fuels

Case 2 Faster transition to a lower carbon energy system

Case 2 Faster transition impact on fuels

Investment requirement in global electricity system to 2040

Conclusions

Conclusions

Thought for the day

“It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.” Niccolo Machiavelli

References

Bloomberg: EMEA Future of Energy Summit London 2016

BP Report: Energy Outlook 2015-2035

G Tverberg: A Forecast of our Energy Future

Global Electricity Initiative: 2014 Report

S Michaux: Article on Peak Energy and World Energy Model

World Economic Forum Report: The Future of Electricity

Thank You

UHVnet Conference January 2017