Global Education Futures Agenda

Russian Education Foresight Initiative

Pavel Luksha & Dmitry Peskov

RF Group 2010-2013

globaledfutures@refuture.me

Our work on charting the future of education

2010: first Russian education foresight at Educamp 2010 2011: first Russian ‘map of the future of education’ 2012: first Russian foresight on higher education perspectives 2012-13: first Russian skills foresight across 19 industries providing new requirements for school & university curriculum based on demand of industries [Report + Navigator through jobs of the future + interactive career orientation tool + career-orientation games for high school students] 2013: first version of the Report on Global Education Futures Agenda • map of the future of education [in Russian & English] • iPad & online application [in Russian, English TBD] • 150-pages comprehensive report [in Russian & English & Chinese]

Education Futures 2035 Map: 200+ trends, technologies & educational formats that will inform global education agenda

Focus of the Report

Formation of the basic

system (early industrial

logic). Basic schooling,

parochial schools.

Technical College.

Higher education for the

elite.

Creation of integrated national

systems (the logic of developed

industrialism). Mass schooling.

Special and technical schools.

Mass higher education, “Big

universities”. Knowledge-focused

education. Qualifications approach.

Formation of educational sphere

(early post-industrial logic). New

teaching approaches. Focus on

skills & competencies. Project-

and activity-based education.

Meta-competency education.

Early industrialized Industrialized Late-/post-industrialized

Less developed nations, ca. 40% of the world’s population (Africa, Latin America, Central Asia)

Emerging nations, ca. 45% of the world’s population (China, India, the Arab World, SEA)

Developed nations, ca. 15% of the world’s population (OECD countries)

As a rule, global education reports originate in ‘equalization of opportunities’ or ‘helping the laggards’ standpoint

Our focus: the cutting edge of educational practices and the new global architecture of education

This group is characterized by: • being at, or near,

technological frontier, incl. ICT

• ‘first world’ problems

• “encumbrances” (developed social institutions of the industrial past become liabilities or burden)

Major challenges forcing the search for new models of education

Digital technologies

Changing models of knowledge creation, preservation and transmission. Changes in achievement recording and evaluation / assessment procedures. Changes in the process of managing personal development trajectory. Changes in the management of educational institutions, etc.

Education tech start-ups

The new & rapidly growing market of solutions with potential to complement or even replace traditional formats of industrial education

Hyper-competition & emergence of new industries

Demand for educational and research pragmatics Requirements for the new content and new educational formats: (a) maximum flexibility & development of meta-professional competences, and (b) superfast education and narrow-focused competence development

Education as an asset

The development of a variety of investment models in education (including financial investment models). Demand for quality control and transparency of education outcomes.

Challenges of consumer society

Trend: growing share of students with a reduced motivation for education (when basic needs are satisfied). Counter-trend: growing proportion of ‘independent learners’ demanding ‘learning their own way’.

Defining Education

We see education as an institutionalized process of individual development support from birth to death. Formalized educational institutions are responsible for only a fraction of this process.

Formal education during the first trimester of life

(school & university)

Socialization (in family and in society)

-1… human life cycle …100+

Early develop-

ment (family, kinder-garten)

Development of personal traits and self-development

Further development of professional competency

Acquiring new knowledge as a hobby or a change of career track

Education as a tool that helps solve family problems and overcome crises (incl. parent education)

Team education as a development tool for corporations, NGOs, state institutions, communities etc.

Elderly adaptation

Pra

gmat

ic

Pers

on

alis

ed

Stakeholders involved in discussions of the future of education

Different stakeholder positions mean different visions of future education

Education for

complete life

cycle

INDIVIDUAL

FAMILY

COMMUNITIES

(FORMAL AND INFORMAL)

STATE

BUSINESS

(as an employer

and as a seller)

Transformation pressures on education systems from the various stakeholders

New content and organizational

forms of education

Extra-system innovators (ed tech startups etc.)

New global standards and global competition pressures

Intra-system innovators (innovative

teachers etc.)

New requests from local consumers (families, business, non-profit organizations, state)

Presupposition: Where the changes come from

Infrastructure of communication:

ICT

Infrastructure of body: medicine &

fitness

Infrastructure of production & consumption:

finance

New solutions in education

Transformation of traditional institutions

Aspects of education: • Knowledge acquisition &

creation of new knowledge • Socialization, skills

development, personal growth • Recording / evaluation of

progress & achievements

Major trends: • Development of new technologies • Changes in political & economic environment • Social & cultural transformations

Key ‘infrastructures’ of society

Background: some technologies influencing the transformation of education

Automation of Intellectual Routines

2013 2016 2025 2035

Semantic translation engines (2019)

‘Strong’ artificial intelligence (also used

in virtual worlds) (2027)

Cognitive Revolution

Mass-market neurointerfaces

HTTP 2.0: Thought transfer protocol

(2025)

Digitization & Mobility

Domination of Internet of things

Widespread blended AR/VR reality in large

cities

Full scale virtual worlds for

work & play

‘New authencity’ (2015-2025)

‘Brain fitness’ technologies

New psycho-pharm (2020-)

BigData analysis of everyday behavioral

patterns

Background: major economic/ political/ social/ cultural issues

2013 2016 2025 2035

Shift in models of business organization and industry management (open innovation, hybrid organizations & network economies, DIY industries)

New financial architecture & reputation economy

Rebuilding industries through new waves of technology innovation (IoT, new materials &

3d-print, biotech, new energy etc.)

Shift in patterns of family organization & childhood

Shift in employment patterns and lifestyles (displaced workers, new eldery, gaming generations, authenticity seekers)

Scenario factors: - The future of globalization - The future of states - The role of Asia

Global greening of cities & industries

Globalization of education: Enter the МOOCs

- Global competition for markets and resulting global talent hunt - Internet as a factor on ‘cultural homogenization’ - spreading of international standards in education (Bachelor/Master, PhD, tenure-track contracts)

Background MOOCs- based education: the rise of transnational / trans-boundary models of qualifications and competencies

Global ‘great talent vacuum-cleaner’ and ‘TNC citizenship’

Strengthening of ‘Educational Imperialism’ (an outcome of ‘Billion-Student University’ models)

Some states responding with ‘educational sovereignty’ (dead end?)

2013 2016 2022 2030

Scenario factor: globalization or regionalization?

Global education architecture: W(E)TO or Talent Kyoto protocol?

Personalization: from business drive to self-managed education

2013 2016 2022 2030

Business as employer: achievement / skill recognition: • Online diplomas and portfolios for everyone • Widespread online competence certificates &

achievement badges • Life-long ‘competency diplomas’

Business as investor: ‘talent hunt’ & Hollywood / NHL model • From Upstart to “man-llionaires” and new pension funds • Insurance plans in education for learners

& talent investors

Demand to self-manage educational content for max personal capitalization • Libraries of educational content and trajectories. ‘Your Hero Path’ to replace

standard degrees as the main ‘educational commodity’ • Trajectories tailored by mentor networks • 24/7 artificial tutors (growing from ‘trajectory libraries’).

Climax: “Diamond Age Primer”

Demand for authenticity: individualized life-long learning as an integral part of your life cycle (incl. support in personal cirsis & transformation)

Co-operation: from ‘team hunt’ to CoP-centered learning

- Team education demand from corporate & state players - Startup-education in acceleration - ‘McKinsey as university’ model: producing teams & networks as a by-product of business activities

2013 2016 2022 2030

Demand for teams from communities of practice (CoP) Distributed / online CoPs become a new educational milieu (also: integrate with MOOCs)

Educational opportunities fair: participate in projects or games for cash, reputation, experience & social impact

Family demand for re-integration through ‘team education’

New universities as students’ holdings (revival of the medieval university model within growing CoPs)

Background & current trends

Gamification: from education games to the totality of gaming

2013 2016 2022 2030

- MMORPG is a mass phenomenon but little recognized & used in education - the game culture becomes a norm across generations

Background

Recognition of gaming: - Routine use of games for project-based learning / progress & final testing - MMORPG achievements in CVs

Gradual gamification of life: real life achievements recognized through game mechanics in fitness, travel & beyond

‘Childhood-long games’: super-long transmedia games that adjust content & difficulty with age

Behavior correction simulators (biofeedback, AR). Virtual jail: overcoming social alienation of delinquents using virtual simulators

Working & living in blended virtual + real worlds becomes the life standard in OECD Game interfaces become the standard workspace environment ‘Homo Ludens’ a social norm

City as a huge simulator: from ‘child-friendly cities’ to ‘city games for all ages’

Driver: technologies leading towards post-scarcity economy

‘Psychodrama worlds’ gaming in psychotherapy

Science: from BigData to live knowledge models

- Exponential growth and ‘decay’ of knowledge - Discipline gaps: the ‘Tower of Babel’ effect - Growing demand for ‘knowledge-in-practice’

Background

Science epistemology reconsidered with ICT: BigData in science (Grey’s 4th paradigm)

Digital practices in R&D: - stitching ‘R’ with ‘D’ (reusable digital models in computation disciplines & virtual labs) - connectivity factor (crowdsourcing of R&D, co-use of Big Science objects & remote labs)

‘Prosthetics’ of knowledge: rebuilding fundamental research with semantic technologies; researcher community communication in digital milieu (arXiv & Wiki as prototypes)

2013 2016 2022 2030

‘New Aristotle’: artificial intelligence to structure research teams and co-author research results

AI-based ‘live knowledge’ models for communities of practice become a new standard of knowledge organization (ending ‘Gutenberg Era’)

Reorganization of standards in citation indexing, achievement recording and IPR management (new KM ontology) for digital & connected research environments

NeuroWeb: disrupting technologies for ‘new education’

2013 2016 2022 2030

Neuro- solutions go towards mass-market: - medical applications (prostheses & rehabilitation) - fitness & sports (biometry, biofeedback, psychopharm) - industrial & military applications for remote equipment control - use in gaming & entertainment - neuromarketing

Background

Training productive states of mind & body through biofeedback & gaming Schools of attention (incl. overcoming ADHD syndrome with neuro-training)

Addressing age-related issues through education (‘flexible mind’ training with ‘brain fitness’ & neuro-solutions)

Live teaching & MOOCs adjusting for real student engagement & learning attained (measured through biometry & neurointerfaces)

The rise of NeuroWeb (new web built with mass-market brain-brain interfaces & ‘Human Throught Transfer Protocol’): new ways of communication, training, creative work and management New pedagogy (variety of new educational tools & products) for NeuroWeb-connected groups

Tools for managing productive altered states of consciousness (ASCs) for operator & creative work

Ultra-fast learning methods & development of exocortex (sync between mind & artificial agents / avatars)

New Education Landscape

in 3-5 yrs in 7-10 yrs in 15-20 yrs

• МООСs integrated by educational trajectories

• Academic grades give way to achievement recognition & competency passports

• New models of direct talent investment and other financial / insurance tools in education (for learners & investors)

• The first ‘Billion-Student University’

• Mentor networks and artificial tutors

• Mass market solutions for full-scale education without ever entering school or university

• Major role of gaming environments and augmented reality

• Objectivation of education process via biometry / neurointerfaces

• Game and teamwork are predominate forms of education and social interactions

• Artificial intelligence as a mentor (“Diamond Age Primer”) and a partner in research

• ‘Live knowledge’ models and the death of Gutenberg Galaxy

• Education in NeuroWeb- linked groups and new pedagogy

Obsolesce of Formats

by 2017 by 2025 by 2035

• ‘Human phonograph’ industrial teaching based on standard textbooks & tests (replaced by ICT based solutions)

• Standardized tests (complemented & replaced by tests more focused on unique & creative abilities)

• Semester grades (replaced by continuous result recording)

• Graduation diplomas (replaced by life-long competency diploma)

• Academic journals (replaced by researcher communication networks), citation indexing standards & IPR management system (replaced by comprehensive digital KM ontologies)

• Single-author textbooks • ASCs as a social deviation

• Comprehensive schools • Research universities • Texts (books & articles)

as a predominant medium of knowledge-based communication

Following existing educational formats will be largely recognized in developed countries as ineffective or obsolete given the availability of feasible alternatives

Education in human life cycle: from sprinting to marathons

Life time

Intensity

0… 25 50 75

Life time

Intensity

0… 25 50 75 100+

Education 2013 Education 2030

childhood education culminating in ‘rite of passage’ into adult life

lifelong education through all stages of adult life, with second ‘intensity peak’ during the transition into eldery life

education of the ‘first-third’ of life (school & university) followed by professional education interventions

Learner’s path in 2030 education (demand side)

Goal-setting

Personal development trajectory

Worldview, languages, intellectual development (IQ)

Supporting tech

solutions Online

courses, knowledge

libraries

Simulators and

MMORPG

Biometry / biofeedback

wearbles and neurointerfaces

Managing body-and-mind states, healthy behavior (PQ / EQ)

Social and managerial skills (SQ / EQ)

Team games / group projects that correspond to the level and goals of individual development (or development in the family)

Achievement recording during education process

Personal competency ‘passport’

Integrated portfolio of creative achievement

(incl. game achievements)

Evaluation and feedback from mentors, peers,

users of project results, members of

communities of practice

Project/game tasks and participants markets

Self-defined (and continuously adjusted) personal development goals

Goals defined by or with mentors as guides though

educational process

Goals defined by the role model (‘My

Hero’s Path’)

Indicators of the quality of educational process (engagement, ‘flow’)

‘Enforced’ goals (e.g. by parents or

employers)

Learner’s tech environment in 2030 education (supply side)

“Cloud” of competence models and standards

& Developer’s tools (ed

products & integration into non-ed products)

Bio-monitoring (wearables etc.)

Educational trajectory management interface

EDSTORE

Libraries of MOOCs and simulators (with rankings)

Ed-BigData: data processing systems

Assessment and certification systems

(incl. games and social networks)

Online competency passport &

integrated portfolio

Gateways to game worlds, social networks and

collaborative environments

Opportunity markets (vacant positions/projects/games to gain

experience and/or reputation)

New financial tools (reputational capital, investment solutions)

Financial & insurance instruments for New Education

Instrument type

Key logic Trends supported

1 Direct talent investment

- return on investment - transparency, accountability, manageability

- personalization of education - data mining of profitable education&career trajectories

2 Insurance model

- being competent is like being healthy (hence: ed insurance plan) - investment protection

- support to direct talent investment model - personalization of education - education in communities / teams

3 Ed co-op - co-financing the development of community / team competences

- education in communities / teams

4 Educational bookmaking

- ‘’players’ bet on their ability to learn a subject or master a skill

- gamefication of education - personalization (competing with ‘peers’)

5 Exchange & accumulation of reputation capital

- reputation in community is exchanged and increased through learning & teaching

- education in communities / teams - gamefication of education

Technoparadigm in Education – Teacher’s Friend or Foe?

Obsolescent occupations Emerging occupations

• ‘human phonograph’ teachers & professors

• certain administrative positions(e.g. educational process planners)

• authors of ‘pre-digital’ textbooks

Occupations dealing with development and implementation of solutions for: • ‘blended’ learning that combines online / offline

learning modules • learning through real-life projects • learning embedded in games • learning using wearables • managing education and career trajectories • evaluation and assessment

Significant growth in the number of workplaces with a major shift in key competences demanded

Big Markets for New Education

Educational systems become educational spheres. This creates a number of new large markets where new companies size of Google or Facebook will thrive.

• Competence, achievement & reputation tracking

• Ed search engine and/or EdStore

• Ed-BigData solutions • Ed developer tools • Ed trajectory

management & artificial tutors

• Mentor networks • Opportunity and

talent exchange markets

Backbone solutions

• Simulators for prolonged team training

• Simulators for alienated & delinquents

• Games with augmented reality in corporate & urban environment

• Simulators of risky & hazardous situations

• ‘Playing with values’ • ‘Psychodrama worlds’

Virtual worlds for playing and learning

• State-of-mind training tools (incl. wearables) & attention management schools

• Measurement of engagement & learning attained

• Sensoriums

Neuro- solutions

+ solutions to ‘patch up’ industrial model of education

New ed finance

Big Markets for New Education: Wave of Startups & Spin-offs

• The ‘double hump’ effect is typical for many innovative sectors and could also be expected in ed tech market. Businesses that remain afloat after the initial bubble collapses will set new standards

• Risk of overheating and collapse is compensated by the possibility of emergence of game-changing innovations. At this point it is not possible to forecast which startups have better become the backbone of the new educational sphere – thus experimenting is crucial

‘Crutches’ and ‘patches’

for the current system

using existing ICT

infrastructure.

Growing bubble in ed

tech market segment.

Plunging of ed tech market players

focused on solutions

complementary to existing

education. Growth of solutions

offering new standards. Wars of

standards and formats. Next gen

ICT infrastructure used (incl. AIs,

AR, biomonitors & neurointerfaces

etc.)

New education solutions become

the basic infrastructure in the

developed world

2010-2017 2017-2025 2025 - 2035

Crisis in education recognized

ICT called to address the issues

Ed tech a new fashion

New generation of leaders in education rises

What’s happening to ‘industrial’ education model?

Changes in education systems strongly resemble the ones that take place in the energy sector with the proliferation of smart grids: • ‘Industrial model’ (mass / standardized) education

system will provide the ‘base load’ educational service for another 15-20 years, until efficient & sustainable alternatives are developed, able to provide same or higher quality services with lower cost

• However, industrial age education system will rapidly lose its monopoly as more and more alternative providers emerge (kids born in 2013/14 will be able to get high quality / reasonable cost education without ever entering school of university)

• Return on investment in ‘industrial model’ schools & universities will become substantial lower (due to effects of new education) and the industrial age education systems in most countries will keep deteriorating, increasing inequality within & between education systems (with some leaders breaking far ahead)

time

Cost of service

‘Industrial’ education New Education

The speed of emergence of the New Education will depend on whether new solutions will be able to provide same or better services for lower cost in areas invested by the state (socialization and social adaptation, national security etc.)

~2020-25

Some hints for regulators (in countries aspiring to participate in the creation of New Education)

‘Industrial model’ education

• Maintain quality of human capital

• Focus investment on leaders (with potential to grow into world’s education elite) and create possibility of spillovers

• Change VET focus to address ‘the new unemployed’ problem

New Education

• Min intervention & standardization to retain the ‘open field’

• Support startups in education (e.g. create PPP funds)

• Support export of education services

• Establish a regulator responsible for the development and support of cutting edge technologies in education

Hints for regulators (comprehensive chart)

‘Industrial model’ education policies

• Sufficient funding to maintain the existing quality level • Focused investments

• Creation of leading institutions, • Setting up ‘megaprojects’ to facilitate a breakthrough, • Transforming universities into educational centers for regional

growth and development • Rebuilding economy to accommodate waves of new technologies (also

solving the problem of the ‘new unemployed’) • Supporting dialog between education and industry regarding

future skills needs • Removing barriers that impede adaptation to industry

requirements • Creation of programs to support self-employment

• Organization of partnerships between МООС-platforms and national education systems

New education policies

• Creation of Ed Tech incubators for educators, programmers, and entrepreneurs (in the form of incubators, startup accelerators etc.)

• Financial and fiscal support for startups in education, incl.: • Preferential tax regimes • Establishment of specialized Ed Tech venture capital

funds in PPP format • Development of standards for physiological and mental

safety of educational products (involving communities of educators, healthcare specialists, psychologists, and parents) – with gradual shift towards self-regulated standards of New Education

General policies

Transboundary / international policies

• Equal rights for all educational providers to access key resources: students, development budgets, grants, subsidies etc. • Possibility of tracking and recording individual’s achievements throughout his/her life and support of individual educational trajectories.

(This will allow to choose between ‘industrial model’ and ‘new education’ providers.) • Special initiatives that help ‘stitching’ old and new education practices • Support of educational services export (incl. hi-tech solutions) • Support of research and experimentation in educational sphere (target grants to support development of educational technologies, creating

new possibilities for experimentation inside the system )

• Promotion of inexpensive education technologies in developing countries (e.g. OLPC model) • Identification and global replication of educational practiced from developing countries (e.g. ‘learning from extremes’ model) • Establishment of global certification systems and global simulators for skill testing • Uniform rules of international talent market functioning: W(E)TO or Talent ‘Kyoto Protocol’

‘Force fields’ in New Education

Players ‘PRO’ (revolutionaries and reformers)

Players ‘CONTRA’ (conservatives)

Ambivalent players (potential to influence)

ICT industry

Frontline universities (going with the trend)

NGO education initiatives

‘Responsible’ parents

Independent & young researchers

Regulators (education as a foreign policy instrument )

Big business (entertainment, healthcare, kids-oriented industries)

Regulators (domestic policy)

(Some) organized religions

Ivory Tower Faculty & Management

Conservative parents

‘New unemployed’ (due to tech change)

Employers

Leaders of emerging world (China, India)