The Global Earthquake ModelCurrent status in the Caribbean and Central America Region

Julio Antonio García PeláezIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Trieste, Italy GEM Semi-Annual Meeting, 11th – 12th December 2012

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

1. Introduction

2. The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme

(GCRP)

3. Contrains and challenges

4. Works in progress

5. Critical issues and possible solutions

Outline

The Caribbean Plate Context

Complex region with a variety of plate boundary interactions:‣Subduction in the Lesser Antilles and Central America‣Major transcurrent faults on northern and southern boundaries‣Sea floor spreading in the Cayman Trough

Present day tectonics map modified from Pindell&Kendall (2009)

The Caribbean Plate Context

Circum-Caribbean Seismicity(medium and large events)

ISC Bulletin (1990-2011)(1990-2011)

(1500-1903)(1500-1903)

Courtesy of the GEH project

The Caribbean Context

‣ The Caribbean-Central America region is susceptible to medium-low frequency (high impact) earthquake and volcanic hazards, in a wide spatial extent, with limited landmass (insular Caribbean) and a particularly complex seismotectonic framework

‣ Risk perception in general is fatalistic (...are acts of God) or "optimistic" (We are immune to..., It will not happen during my...)

‣ Therefore, not enough has been done to preserve populations and assets against natural hazards

‣ Consequently, the sustainability of development in the region will be seriously challenged in the near future if this approach is maintained

The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)

January 2011- The GEM Foundation worked together with The Seismic Research Centre

(SRC) of The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, to promote the GEM vision in

the Caribbean,May 2011- A 3-day Kick-off

workshop, hosted by the

University of the West Indies,

formally launched the GEM

CRP.

Experts and stakeholders (over

70) from nine Caribbean

countries

participated: Trinidad & Tobago, Barbados, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica,

Cuba, Jamaica, Martinique and Venezuela.

Constraints and challenges

‣ Inadequate human resource capacity for seismic hazard/risk assessment in the region to accomplish the standards proposed by GEM

‣ Lack of a regional vision in order to face a common problem: disaster risk reduction

‣ Several national, regional and international organizations/agencies are currently working in this region not always in a coordinated and efficient way

‣ The available data are limited and not readily accessible and sharing information is a critical step in the region

‣ Dissemination problems (lessons learned, main results of projects…)

The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)

Country Institution

Haití National Observatory of the Environment and Vulnerability

Rep. Dominicana Autonomic University of República Dominicana

Rep. Dominicana Geological Survey of República Dominicana

Puerto Rico PRSN, University of Mayagüez

Expanding the GEM CRP activities in the Insular Caribbean

Thanks! Maria Belen Benito

The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)Expanding the GEM CRP activities in Central America

‣ GEM have started a strategic collaboration with the SESDS group (lead by Maria Belen Benito) of the Technical University of Madrid, Spain.

‣ Recently, SESDS and local experts from Central America carried the most recent PSHA study for the region, with the support of NORAD.Country InstitutionGuatemala University Mariano Gálvez

El Salvador Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales

Costa Rica Instituto Costarricense de ElectricidadPanamá University of Panamá

INGEOMINAS / INGV

RESIS II / UPM

CENAIS/OGS

FUNVISISUWI-CRS

NOEV / UPMUASD/RD-GS

PRSN

GEM regional cross-RG collaboration effort

IdentificationOpen

DiscussionSelection

New knowledge

Global Comp.Contributions

Discussion

Proposals for harmonization

Working together – PSHA Harmonization schema

Identification and selection process

UWI/Eucentre (2011)

GEO-TER (2002)

Ordaz (2008)

RESIS II (2008)

Discussion

the zones are “overlapped” around a depth of 50-60 km

Country Name I d_ OQ Tecreg_ OQ Top Bottom Mexico CHSI1 src54 Subduction Interface 25 120

Costa Rica

CSI11 src42 Subduction Interface 26 63 CSI12 src43 Subduction Interface 26 51 CSI13 src44 Subduction Interface 26 52 CSP14 src50 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 177 CSP15 src51 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 155 CSP16 src52 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 82

Guatemala GSI09 src38 Subduction Interface 26 70 GSP10 src47 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200

Nicaragua NSI15 src40 Subduction Interface 26 70 NSI16 src41 Subduction Interface 26 70 NSP17 src49 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200

Panama PSI09 src45 Subduction Interface 26 50 PSI10 src46 Subduction Interface 50 50 PSP11 src53 Subduction Intra-Slab 50 100

El Salvador SSI05 src39 Subduction Interface 26 70 SSP06 src48 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200

RESIS II subduction model. In blue: interface subduction zones, in black: in-slab subduction zones.

Differences between the models

Testing the models with the OpenQuake engine

Critical issues and possible solutions (1)

‣ We need to increase our human resource capacities - More training and knowledge transfer, please!

‣ We should increase the participation of stakeholders of the region or abroad - French Departments (BRGM/CDSA/Univ. of Guyana).

‣ We should establish synergies with existing and planned projects in the region - Leverage resources and knowledge

‣ We need to create a regional culture of open data and sharing information and knowledge with transparency

Critical issues and possible solutions (2)

‣ We must break down barriers of any kind (political, social, language) and work together – faster, please!

‣ At the moment there is limited interaction with experts in the region for what concerns risk - we hope to change this in the near future (IStructE)

‣ We need to re-define priority proposals and projects taking into account our needs, limited funds and the real possibility to realize them – right now!

INGEOMINAS / INGV

RESIS II / UPM

CENAIS/OGS

FUNVISISUWI-CRS

NOEV / UPMUASD/RD-GS

PRSN

Julio Antonio Garcia: jgarcia@inogs.it - julio.garcia@globalquakemodel.org

Thanks ! Gracias !