global crisis angola 1208

8/14/2019 Global Crisis Angola 1208

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Angola: Perspectives on the

Financial CrisisRicardo Gazel

Second AFR Economists RetreatJohannesburg, South Africa

December 5, 2008


2/24

Impact on Financial Sector

Likely small as: No stock market

No strong connection of domestic bank

system with international financial markets(except via Portuguese banks)

Small interbaking credit market

Low loans to deposit ratios

Solid macroeconomic indicators: budgetsurplus, high international reserves, lowexternal debt.


3/24

Net International ReservesUS$ Millions

500

2500

4500

6500

8500

10500

12500

14500

16500

18500

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

08-Jan

08-Feb

08-Mar

08-Apr

08-May

08-Jun

08-Jul

08-Aug

08-Sep

10-Oct

-08


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Demand Deposit (Millions Kz)

$50,000

$150,000

$250,000

$350,000

$450,000

$550,000

$650,000

$750,000

2005 2006 2007 QI -2008 QII -2008 Q III - 2008 08-Oct 21-Nov-08

Demand Deposit

Foreign Currency

Demand Deposit

Domestic Currency


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Impact on Inflation

A stronger dollar can have animpact on inflation as import prices

from Europen goods would belower in Kwanzas


6/24

Yearly Inflation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007


7/24

Inflation Year-over-Year

11

1213

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Food 2008

CPI 2008

Food 2007

CPI 2007


8/24

Exchange Rate: Nominal and Real

304050

60708090

100110

120130140150160

Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Nominal Exchange Rate Real Exchange Rate


9/24

Nominal Exchange Rates

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08

Dollar,

Euro

8

9

10

11

12

Rand

dollar Euro Rand (Right axis)


10/24

Impact on Real Economy

Real Economy: Lower price of oil lower government

revenues and lower national income

Lower government demand lower growth ofnon-oil sector

Investment and Capital Flows

Less liquidity in international credit marketscan reduce investment flows as price ofcapital increases

Higher Costs of Government Financing


11/24

Exports:US$ Millions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Oil Non-oil


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OPEC Reference Basket Price2008 - Daily

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

02-Jan

11-Jan

22-Jan

31-Jan

11-Feb

20-Feb

29-Feb

11-Mar

20-Mar

01-Apr

10-Apr

21-Apr

30-Apr

09-May

20-May

29-May

09-Jun

18-Jun

27-Jun

08-Jul

17-Jul

28-Jul

06-Aug

15-Aug

26-Aug

04-Sep

15-Sep

24-Sep

03-Oct

14-Oct

23-Oct

03-Nov

12-Nov

21-Nov

02-Dec


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Oil Exports:Volume and Price

311.1302.6

344.5

452

487.8

522

584

623

24.228.2

36.1

50

61.4

72.4

97.08

55

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Volume (millions of barrels) Price (US$/barrel)


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Oil Exports (US$ millions)

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,00040,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


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Real Growth Rates 2007 2009%

Year 2007 2008 2009

Oil Sector: 20.4 11.7 5.9

Non Oil Sector: 25.7 18.6 16.3 GDP Total: 23.3 15.6 11.8


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I. Economic Growth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

Current GDP (Billions of Kwanzas) Real Growth Rates


17/24

OIL ProductionMillion Barrels per Day

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2007 2008 OPEC Quota OPEC Quota

with

Production

Cut

Government

Forecast 2009


18/24

Real Growth Rates 2007 2009%

Year 2007 2008 2009

Oil Sector: 20.4 11.7 5.9

Non Oil Sector: 25.7 18.6 16.3 GDP Total: 23.3 15.6 11.8


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Imports:US$ Millions and % of Composition

53.4%56.7%

61.1% 59.6% 57.8%

34.3%

28.6% 28.6% 28.7% 30.1%

5,480 5,832

8,3538,778

13,661

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Current Consumption Goods Intermediate Consumption Goods Capital Goods Merchandise


20/24

Fiscal Accounts: RevenuesBillions of Kwanzas)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oil Non-oil


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Fiscal Accounts: Growth Rates% over previous year

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Revenues Oil Non-oil


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Fiscal Accounts: Revenues and Expenditures(% do GDP)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Revenue Total Expenditure Overall Balance (commitment basis)


23/24

Fiscal Accounts: Revenues and Expenditures(% do GDP)

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Non-oil GDP as % of GDP Non-Oil primary fiscal balance (as % of Non-oil GDP)


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External Debt including Arrears

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

As % GDP External Debt (US$millions)

global crisis angola 1208

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