Climate Change : Climate Change : Impacts on Indian Impacts on Indian

AgricultureAgriculture

Biswajit Biswal

Dept. of Soil Sc. & Agril. Chemistry

Institute of Agricultural Sciences

Banaras Hindu University

Varanasi

There was a country.People were happily living by fishing & other activities depending upon the surrounding sea.

Suddenly the sea begins to rise..Within a century..The whole island country sinks..Along with it sinks the 300000 lives..their Culture..& Heritage…

Some how some ambitious people had seen the future in advance.They had shelters in other countrie…They survived..along with them their legend…

• Friends…This was not a story..The Country in Question is Maldives & the visionary is newly elected President Nasheed..

• According to IPCC..There are 20 countries aroundworld.in the verge of extinction..Due to rise in sea level resulting from GLOBAL WARMING..

The last days of paradise are on….

What We aspire to give our great grand children is nothing but a world worth not living….

Its now Maldives….Days are not far..When Its now Maldives….Days are not far..When India will be witnessing Such things….India will be witnessing Such things….

Is this reality..???

Lets Ponder over Lets Ponder over it..it..

INDIA AND AGRICULTURE INDIA AND AGRICULTURE CONTEXT• Population : 1 billion +• % Share of Agri. in GDP : 34 % (1994), 42 % (1980)• Area under Agriculture : 50 % (160 mha) • Population dependent on Agriculture: 70% • Average farm size: : 1 to5 ha• Landless dependent on others • Total. Area Irrigated Prod Earnings % of GDP

(mha) (mha) (mt). (Rs.) Rice 42 20 73 365 22Wheat 24 21 57 208 12.6

Current Issues in Current Issues in AgricultureAgriculture

• Overproduction in short-term, yet food insecurity for a large population

• Stagnation/decline in yields

• Diversification

• Natural resource management- SOM decline, input use efficiencies, narrow genetic base

• Quality and quantity of water resources

• Profitability: Increasing cost and deceleration in TFP growth

Emerging Scenario: Drivers Emerging Scenario: Drivers of Agricultural of Agricultural TransformationTransformation

• Increasing population leading to higher (and quality) demand of food

• Increasing urbanization• Increasing rural migration -tenant farming,

contract and cooperative farming • Increasing inter- and intra-sectoral competition for

resources: land, water, energy, credit• Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers,

information and communication • New technologies: Biotechnology, space and

information technology Increasing privatization of agricultural extension

Global climate changeGlobal climate change• Global mean temperatures have

increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years• GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide)

increase, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons.

• Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100 AD. Greater increase in rabi

• Precipitation likely to increase in kharif• Snow cover is projected to contract• More frequent hot extremes, heavy

precipitations• Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.

Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change.

(Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)

What is the contribution of What is the contribution of different sectors in India to different sectors in India to

climate change?climate change?(Sources of greenhouse gas (Sources of greenhouse gas

emissions in India)emissions in India)

Industrial processes

8%

Wastes2%

Land use changes

1%

Agriculture28%

Energy61%

What sectors of agriculture in India What sectors of agriculture in India contribute to climate change?contribute to climate change?

Rice cultivation23%

Manure management

5%

Emission from soils12%

Enteric fermentation

59%

Crop residues1%

Estimates of Future Estimates of Future Levels of COLevels of CO22

Year CO2, ppm

2000 369

2010-2015 388-398

2050/2060 463-623

2100 478-1099

Most of the greenhouse gas emissions are Most of the greenhouse gas emissions are from the industrialized countriesfrom the industrialized countries

Europe

Africa

Japan, Australia and New zealand

South AsiaEast Asia

USA and Canada

Latin AmericaMiddle East

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Region

tons

of C

O2

eq/c

apita

Climate Change Climate Change Scenarios for IndiaScenarios for India

Year Season Increase inTemperature, oC

Change inRainfall, %

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.362020s

Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10

Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.822050s

Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52

Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.502080s

Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18

Other observations of change in Other observations of change in global climateglobal climate

• Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.

• Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas.

• Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.

Other changes in global climate Other changes in global climate in futurein future

Tropical cyclones to become more intense, with heavier precipitation.

Snow cover is projected to contract. Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy

precipitation events will become more frequent.

The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 meters.

Impacts on Indian Agriculture –LiteratureImpacts on Indian Agriculture –Literature  Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2oC in

temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha.

   Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects.

• Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places.

   Lat et al. (1996) – concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields.

  Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.

• Aggarwal et al. (2002) – using WTGROWS and recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.

All these studies focused only on agronomic impacts of climate change.

Potential Impact of Climate Change Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Indiaon Wheat Production in India

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

Pro

du

cti

on

, M

ton

s

Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)

Projected impacts of climate change Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agricultureon Indian agriculture

Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100.

Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time.

Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard

Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability

Projected impacts of climate change Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agricultureon Indian agriculture

Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N. America, and negative impacts on us

Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production

Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.

Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects

Projected impacts of climate change Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agricultureon Indian agriculture

Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions

Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.

Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production

Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Rice Yields in North Indiaon Irrigated Rice Yields in North India

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

YearC

ha

ng

e in

gra

in y

ield

, %

Minimum

Maximum

Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Wheat Yields in North Indiaon Irrigated Wheat Yields in North India

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070Year

Ch

an

ge

in g

rain

yie

ld, %

Minimum

Maximum

Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in Central Indiaon Rainfed Wheat Yields in Central India

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070Year

Ch

an

ge

in g

rain

yie

ld, %

Minimum

Maximum

Climate Variability and Climate Change- Climate Variability and Climate Change- Another Driver in AgricultureAnother Driver in Agriculture

• Increase in CO2

• Increase in temperature

• Change in precipitation

• Sea level rise

• Variability and extreme events such as floods and drought

Projected beneficial impacts of climate Projected beneficial impacts of climate change on Indian agriculturechange on Indian agriculture

Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard

New ‘flooded’ areas may become available for fisheries in coastal regions

Other potential benefits, if any, need to be characterized

Impacts on AgricultureImpacts on Agriculture

• May alter spatial and temporal demands and supply by impacting:– Food production – Stability and sustainability– Employment and Autonomy– Profitability– Trade & economy– Global financial Crisis

Adaptation and mitigation framework: Adaptation and mitigation framework: Need to consider emerging scenarioNeed to consider emerging scenario

• Greater demand for (quality) food; yields need to increase by 30-50% by 2030

• Increasing urbanization and globalization

• Increasing competition from other sectors for land, energy, water and capital

• Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation

Key adaptation strategies

1. Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks

2. Intensifying food production systems

3. Improving land and water management

4. Enabling policies5. Strengthening adaptation research

Information Needs- ScenariosInformation Needs- Scenarios

• Changes in COChanges in CO22 with time with time

• Spatial and temporal changes in Spatial and temporal changes in temperature and rainfalltemperature and rainfall

• Impact on groundwater and surface Impact on groundwater and surface water availability, floods and droughts, water availability, floods and droughts, sea level risesea level rise

Impact assessment- Information Impact assessment- Information NeedsNeeds

Where, how and at what cost food (crops, livestock products and fish) can be produced to meet the increasing demand and/or what alternative technologies would be needed to meet the desired production targets?

Which region and the social group would be more affected as a consequence of global environmental change?

Impact assessment- Information Impact assessment- Information NeedsNeeds

Which pests will start migrating to currently

uninfected areas?

How does climate change affect the quality

of cereals, spices, medicinal plants, tea and

coffee?

How inter-state and international trade of

different commodities is likely to be affected

by global warming considering differential

impacts on competing states and countries?

Adaptations to Climate Adaptations to Climate ChangeChange

• New varieties: drought/heat resistant

• New farm management practices

• Change in land use

• Watershed management

• Agri-insurance

India Adapting to Global Warming by India Adapting to Global Warming by Changed Management of Wheat in NorthChanged Management of Wheat in North

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070Year

Ch

an

ge i

n g

rain

yie

ld,

%

Minimum

New management

Maximum

Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on EnvironmentFeedbacks on Environment

Agro-forestry systems Resource conservation

technologies Enriching soil organic matter Biofuels

Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment : Information Needson Environment : Information Needs

Can alternate land use systems such as plantation crops and agroforestry increase carbon sequestration and yet meet food demand?

How much area can be taken out from agriculture for forestry; where and what policy measures would be needed?

How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage options? For how long and in which regions?

What policies and technologies would encourage the farmers to enrich organic matter in the soil and thus improve soil health?

ConclusionsConclusions• Climate change is a reality• Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses

due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability

• Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts

• These need research, funding, and policy support

• Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher

• Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options

Climate change…Is it the Beginning of the end..??

The earth is heating..So is the environment..

Now..Its Upto Us..What We can Do..??

Come Forward..

Join hands..

Save Agriculture..to sustain ourselves..

ThankThank You You