David B. MacNeillDavid B. MacNeillFisheries SpecialistFisheries Specialist

NY Sea Grant ExtensionNY Sea Grant ExtensionSUNY OswegoSUNY Oswego

dbm4@cornell.edudbm4@cornell.edu

Global Climate Global Climate Change Change

and Uncertaintyand Uncertainty

Global Climate Change and Global Climate Change and UncertaintyUncertainty

Polar bears

Al Gore

Apocalypse

Junk Science

Greenhouse gases

Glaciers

Kyoto

Decision-making

DisasterIPCC

Tradeoffs

Human dimensions

Policy implementation

Human behavior

Public perceptions

Mitigation

Heresy

CommunicationAdaptationScenariosSocial Sciences

Climate models

Biodiversity

Chicanery

Conspiracy

This This Presentation:Presentation:

• Broad-brush overviewBroad-brush overview of climate change of climate change uncertainties, communication etc. from uncertainties, communication etc. from literature sources, extension experience literature sources, extension experience with scientific uncertainty.with scientific uncertainty.

•NotNot an indictment of science or an an indictment of science or an admonishment of scientists, policy admonishment of scientists, policy makers, government or the lay makers, government or the lay community!!community!!

Understanding the concepts of risk and Understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty with a deck of cards??uncertainty with a deck of cards??

The uncertainty: What poker hand will I draw next?

The risk: What is the probability of drawing it? (<1%)

The Dead Man’s Hand: unlucky for Wild Bill Hickok?

But, the card deck changes But, the card deck changes unexpectedly……unexpectedly……

The Risk ?

Death cards

Other cards

Some Climate Change Some Climate Change PerspectivesPerspectives

• A complex, multidisciplinary issue of long-A complex, multidisciplinary issue of long-term global consequence, that demands:term global consequence, that demands: – Best available information Best available information – New assessment, predictive, decision-making New assessment, predictive, decision-making

toolstools– A carefully planned extension/outreach A carefully planned extension/outreach

strategystrategy– Better PR for scienceBetter PR for science

• An opportunity to:An opportunity to:– Inform communities: climate science, risks, Inform communities: climate science, risks,

abatement abatement and and science 101science 101– Assist coastal communities: decision-making Assist coastal communities: decision-making

Global Climate Global Climate ModelModel

• Many different disciplines.Many different disciplines.

• Highly uncertain events; outcomes poorly defined.Highly uncertain events; outcomes poorly defined.

• Interactive anthropogenic and natural events.Interactive anthropogenic and natural events.

• Future outcomes sensitive to small changes in current Future outcomes sensitive to small changes in current conditions.conditions.

• Incomplete understanding of climate system. Incomplete understanding of climate system.

• Imprecise models: feedbacks, interactions, parameter Imprecise models: feedbacks, interactions, parameter values.values.

• Huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces.Huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces.

• Compilation: decades of intensive, international research.Compilation: decades of intensive, international research.

Climate Change Climate Change ComplexityComplexity::

Uncertainty leads to those nagging Uncertainty leads to those nagging questionsquestions

Is climate change real?, are humans responsible?Is climate change real?, are humans responsible?

• What are the impacts?, What should we do?What are the impacts?, What should we do?

• Why: Why: – is science uncertain?is science uncertain?– do scientists disagree? change their minds?do scientists disagree? change their minds?– don’t scientists always have the answer?don’t scientists always have the answer?– do results contradict?do results contradict?

Uncertainty Uncertainty paradigmsparadigms

•Uncertainty is unwelcome, and needs to be avoided. Science must eliminate uncertainty through more and better research.

•Uncertainty is undesirable, but unavoidable. Science must estimate and quantify uncertainty as well as possible.

•Uncertainty creates opportunities. Science must contribute to more inclusive, understandable discussions.

•Uncertainty is an integral part of decision-making. Science must have more societal influence.

Communicating Science and Communicating Science and UncertaintiesUncertainties

Why even bother ???Why even bother ???

• PR: The process of science.PR: The process of science.

• Restore credibility of science: increased Restore credibility of science: increased transparency.transparency.

• Provide accessible information/knowledge to Provide accessible information/knowledge to decision-makers.decision-makers.

• Decision-making: accurate and collaborative. Decision-making: accurate and collaborative.

• Increase public support/involvement: Increase public support/involvement: decision-making decision-making

• Enhance societal abilities: adaptation & Enhance societal abilities: adaptation & mitigationmitigation

• GCC interactions: science and human ecologyGCC interactions: science and human ecology

Three Arguments for Climate Three Arguments for Climate ChangeChange

• Climate is changing: analyses of many Climate is changing: analyses of many indicatorsindicators

• Human activities have contributed to increases Human activities have contributed to increases in green house gas emissionsin green house gas emissions

• Scientific deliberations and large-scale Scientific deliberations and large-scale computer models suggest potential for climate computer models suggest potential for climate change from anthropogenic influenceschange from anthropogenic influences

• High degree of confidence: weight of evidence High degree of confidence: weight of evidence from expert opinionfrom expert opinion

Is climate Is climate reallyreally changing?changing?

Surface temperature record

Sea Ice

Sea level

Glacial record

Sub-surface

ocean

temperatures

Climate proxies

Convincing evidence

BUT..

Contentious Points

Climate cycles

Remote sensing

calibration

Climate proxy

accuracy

Policies:

people or nature

Model predictive power

Climate sensitivity Earth’s resiliency?

Solar activity

Natural vs. anthropogenic

Muir Glacier Alaska, August 1940. photo by W.O. Field

Seeing is Seeing is Believing?Believing?

Muir Glacier Alaska, August 2004. photo by B.F. Molnia

Uncertainty

Scientist Non-scientist

“You just don’t understand.” “It’s too complicated”. “We know what is best.” “It’s not our job to explain it to you”. “We’re scientists, not interpreters”.

“Science is sloppy - a collection of useless facts”. “You’re arrogant, out-of touch and have impractical ideas”. “You’ve been wrong before.”“Prove it.”

An exaggerated An exaggerated view…..view…..

Some major Some major challengeschallenges

• Continuing uncertainties on climate system sensitivity to Continuing uncertainties on climate system sensitivity to various feedbacks (e.g., clouds, water vapor, snow).various feedbacks (e.g., clouds, water vapor, snow).

• Several natural modes of climate variability have been Several natural modes of climate variability have been identified and described, but their predictability is uncertain.identified and described, but their predictability is uncertain.

• Need to improve understanding of whether and how human Need to improve understanding of whether and how human impacts may alter natural climate variability.impacts may alter natural climate variability.

• Do not yet have confident assessments of the likelihood of Do not yet have confident assessments of the likelihood of abrupt climate changes.abrupt climate changes.

• Insufficient understanding of effects of climate variability Insufficient understanding of effects of climate variability and change on extreme events.and change on extreme events.

• Limited capabilities at regional scales.Limited capabilities at regional scales.• Need better means for identifying, developing, and Need better means for identifying, developing, and

providing climate information required for policy and providing climate information required for policy and resource management decisions.resource management decisions.

Stochastic (Surprises)

Science

Climate System

Knowledge

Human reflexive (volition)

Epistemic (Unknowns)

Non-Scientists

Mac’s Uncertainty Concept Mac’s Uncertainty Concept ModelModel

Decisions

Knowledge

Scientists

communication (translation)

Stochastic (Surprises)

Science

Climate System

Knowledge

Human reflexive (volition)

Epistemic (Unknowns)

Non-Scientists

Mac’s Uncertainty Concept Mac’s Uncertainty Concept ModelModel

Decisions

Knowledge

Scientists

communication (translation)

“To comprehend science as a responsible citizen…both content

and reasoning are essential. The absence of one or the other

may produce laughter, but not good science.”

Paul Gross. Learning Science: Content with Reason. American

Educator Fall 2009: 35-40

Conten

t

Reasonin

g

Surprises

Science

Climate System

Knowledge

Human reflexive (volition)

Unknowns

Non-Scientists

Mac’s Uncertainty Concept Mac’s Uncertainty Concept ModelModel

Decisions

Knowledge

Scientists

communication (translation)

“To comprehend science as a responsible citizen…both

content and reasoning are essential. The absence of one or

the other may produce laughter, but not good science.”

Paul Gross. Learning Science: Content with Reason. American

Educator Fall 2009: 35-40

Conten

t

Reasonin

g

Different Roles of Science in GCC Different Roles of Science in GCC PolicyPolicy

Scientific Knowledge

Politicians

Policy

Pure scientist

Science arbiter

Issue advocate

Honest broker

opinions

Advocacy

Decision making

Policy makers

interpretation

Stakeholders ??

Roger Pielke Jr.

How does science work, How does science work, anyway?anyway?

2. Make an informed

guess about why or

how something

interesting happens

3. Check out how it (our

speculation) stands up

to what we know or what

information we can get

4. Use our judgment whether to (tentatively) accept it, or change, improve or replace it

1. Observe and describe something of interest

Susan Haack

Addressing uncertaintiesAddressing uncertainties

• IdentifyIdentify

• Characterize:Characterize: source, magnitude source, magnitude

• SolicitSolicit expert judgments: level of “confidence” expert judgments: level of “confidence”

• Sensitivity analysisSensitivity analysis: range of probable model outcomes : range of probable model outcomes assessed with model using a range of values various inputs, assessed with model using a range of values various inputs, upper and lower boundupper and lower bound

• Quantify:Quantify: probabilistic analysis (Frequentist and Bayesian), probabilistic analysis (Frequentist and Bayesian), probabilistic distributions, deterministic analysis and hybridsprobabilistic distributions, deterministic analysis and hybrids

• Clarify,Clarify, document range and distributions document range and distributions

• Articulate and communicateArticulate and communicate: probabilistic and scenarios: probabilistic and scenarios

Some predicted impacts of climate Some predicted impacts of climate change?change?

Warmer, dryer summersWarmer, dryer summers Warmer, wetter wintersWarmer, wetter winters Increased spring floodingIncreased spring flooding Changes in sea/lake Changes in sea/lake

levels, water currents, levels, water currents, thermal structurethermal structure

Increased storm Increased storm frequency, severityfrequency, severity

Droughts, crop loss, famineDroughts, crop loss, famine Invasive species, new or re-Invasive species, new or re-

emerging pathogens, parasitesemerging pathogens, parasites More hyperthermia deathsMore hyperthermia deaths Coastal infrastructure/tourismCoastal infrastructure/tourism Habitat damage/lossHabitat damage/loss Loss of biodiversity, extinctions?Loss of biodiversity, extinctions?

DirectIn-direct

Technological advancesTechnological advances Longer growing seasonsLonger growing seasons New agriculture/tourism New agriculture/tourism

opportunities.opportunities. More snow?More snow? Reduced heating costsReduced heating costs Fewer hypothermia deathsFewer hypothermia deaths

GCC heretics, infidels, skeptics, nay-sayers, cynics, GCC heretics, infidels, skeptics, nay-sayers, cynics, deniers??deniers??

What are they What are they really really saying?saying?• Nature: too complex.Nature: too complex.• Conflicting data. Conflicting data. • Models: poor predictors.Models: poor predictors.• Exaggerated impacts.Exaggerated impacts.• Doom/gloom vs. facts.Doom/gloom vs. facts.• Earth’s resiliency.Earth’s resiliency.• Strategies: cost/benefits?Strategies: cost/benefits?• Consensus:Consensus: evidence supports evidence supports

GCCGCC • Less consensus:Less consensus: drivers, drivers,

impacts, strategies, policiesimpacts, strategies, policies

What is the matter with What is the matter with science?science? The debate The debate

continues……continues……• Dyson (1993)

– Consensus: peer pressure (entrepreneurial science) vs. debateConsensus: peer pressure (entrepreneurial science) vs. debate– Public fear drives funding priorities = politicization of sciencePublic fear drives funding priorities = politicization of science– Science's failure to address global welfare vs. unrealistic expectationsScience's failure to address global welfare vs. unrealistic expectations

• Rubin (2001)Rubin (2001)– Science is not the sole repository of the truthScience is not the sole repository of the truth– Little self-limitation on deliverable truthsLittle self-limitation on deliverable truths– Get the facts straight vs. overselling scienceGet the facts straight vs. overselling science– Scientific authority fosters hidden agendas that short-circuit debateScientific authority fosters hidden agendas that short-circuit debate– Participatory decision making impeded by science education shortfalls Participatory decision making impeded by science education shortfalls

• Commoner (1971)Commoner (1971)– Illusion of scientific objectivityIllusion of scientific objectivity

• Grant et al. (2004)Grant et al. (2004)– Popper’s vs. psychological vPopper’s vs. psychological v– Benedikter (2004) basic ideologies and mechanisms not fully visible Benedikter (2004) basic ideologies and mechanisms not fully visible

(psychologically) (psychologically)

• Malnes (2006)Malnes (2006)– Mixed messages: duplicity vs. extraneous diversionsMixed messages: duplicity vs. extraneous diversions

Classical, Modern & Post-Normal Classical, Modern & Post-Normal ScienceScience

the Truth!Classical:

•Observations•Sense experiments•Subjective judgments•Past experience

Absolute

Reductionist, “puzzle-solving”

Modern / Normal:•Exclusive, remote•Non-interdisciplinary•Experiments/models•Data analysis/interpretation•Hypothesis testing

•predictions •probabilities•possible explanations •disconnected policy•adversarial•communication gaps

“Post-Normal”•Inclusive•Natural & social sciences•Complexity/risk/urgency•Systems approach•Cost/benefits•Public debate

Precautionary, risk management

•shared decision making•problems solving •confidence/trust building•Anti-science perception