global challenges and high impact strategies
TRANSCRIPT
Global Challenges and High Impact Strategies
Finnish Institute for International Affairs
Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project -- themp.org
ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition
The World is in a Race
Between implementing
and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global
problems.
Global Collective Intelligence can help…
Win the Race
How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
1
How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
2
How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
3
How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
4
How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
5
How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
6
How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
7
How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
8
How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?
9
How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
10
How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?
11
How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
12
How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
13
How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
14
How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
15
How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change?How can the global convergence of
information and communications technologies work for everyone?
How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges?
How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?
How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
Framework for understanding Global Change: 15 Global Challenges
2015 State of the Future Index
28 Variables use in the 2015 SOFI
• GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 int $)
• Economic income inequality (income share
held by highest 10%)
• Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)
• Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP)
(percent of population)
• CPIA transparency, accountability, and
corruption in the public sector rating Foreign
direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current
US$, billions)
• R&D Expenditures (percent of GDP)
• Population growth (annual rate)
• Life expectancy at birth (years)
• Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
• Prevalence of undernourishment percent of
population)
• Health expenditure per capita (current US$)
• Physicians (per 1,000 people)
• Improved water source (percent of population
with access)
• Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic
meters)
• Biocapacity per capita
• Forest area (percent of land area)
• Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)
• Energy-efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011
PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))
• Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding
hydroelectric (percent of total)
• Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)
• School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)
• Share of high skilled employment (percent)
• Number of wars and serious arm conflicts
• Terrorism incidents
• Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”)
• Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments
(percent of members)
• Internet users (per 100 people)
World Report Card
Where are We Winning?
1.49
66.44
59.70
21.33
463.50
1.30
79.17
5.77
1.19
79.43
56.21
13.80
12.42
76.00
319.89
33.63
9,096.68
15.80
1.21
69.04
44.20
17.64
711.01
1.45
85.63
6.69
1.98
84.27
63.72
15.70
16.49
89.00
1,358.71
21.10
11,488.75
45.73
1.13
71.51
30.04
12.44
1,246.11
1.61
90.54
7.74
6.74
86.10
75.89
18.30
22.10
90.21
1,923.62
11.92
15,039.57
90.12
1.16
73.46
20.47
8.67
1,940.45
1.76
91.71
8.56
19.39
90.84
88.78
19.40
32.89
91.00
2,075.25
7.16
20,017.10
0.78
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Internet Users (per 100 people)
Population growth (annual %)
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
Prevalence of undernourishment (% population)
Health expenditure per capita (US$)
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
Improved water sources (% population with access)
Energy-Efficiency (GDP/unit of energy use)
Electricity from renewables, excl. hydro (% of total)
Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15+)
School enrollment, secondary (% gross)
Share of high skilled employment (%)
Women in national parliaments (% of members)
Freedom (number of countries rated free)
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (US$, billions)
Poverty ($1.25/day, PPP) (%)
GNI per capita (PPP, 2011 international $)
1995 2005 2015 2025
Where are We Losing?
World Report Card
2.83
44.00
2.02
2.00
31.76
7,658
6,398
6.09
2.89
46.00
2.02
1.80
31.24
6,791
8,093
6.13
2.91
51.37
31.00
11,792
2.00
1.68
30.84
5,859
10,484
6.08
2.96
48.00
34.78
30,367
2.01
1.61
30.61
4,982
15,257
6.20
3,079 2,010
31.22
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Corruption in the public sector (1=low; 6=high)
Number of wars and serious arm conflicts (25+ deaths)
Income inequality (share of top 10%)
Terrorism incidents
R&D expenditures (% of GDP)
Biocapacity per capita (gha)
Forest area (% of land area)
Renewable internal freshwater resources (m3/capita)
Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)
Unemployment (% of world labor force)
1995 2005 2015 2025
Initial Draft
Integrated Global Strategy
Old way of looking at the Future of Technology
Artificial Intelligence
Robotic manufacturing
Computational Science
3-D4-D Priting
Nanotechnology
Quantum computing
Synthetic Biology
Drones
Artificial General Intelligence
Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybodythe Semantic Web
Smart Phone Integration/Synergies
Future Technology Synergies
Robotic manufacturing
Drones
Quantum computing
Robotic manufacturing
3D，4D Printing
Augmented RealityTele-Presence, Holographics
Nanotechnology
Artificial General Intelligence
Tele-EverythingTele-Everybodythe Semantic Web
Increasing individual and collective intelligence
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology
Future Technology Synergies
Artificial Intelligence
Robotic manufacturing
Quantum computing
Drones
Future Technology
Robotic manufacturing
3D，4D Printing
Augmented Reality,Tele-Presence, Holographics
When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI’s intelligence will
be far fasterand produce more change than Moore’s Law
by responding to feedback from sensor networks worldwide,
will accelerate AI’s intelligence worldwide… moment by moment
Artificial Intelligence … that can autonomously “write” and improve its code…
What is possible… will change
Moore’s Law
+
Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI
+
Computational science
These three together will change what we think is possible.
If \ Then Nano-
technology
Synthetic
Biology
Artificial
Intelligence
Robotics 3-D Printing Augmented
Reality
Nano-
technology xxx
Synthetic
Biology xxx
Artificial
Intelligence xxxRobotics
xxx3-D Printing
xxxAugmented
Reality xxx
Emerging Technologies Table
Some Long-Rage Future
International Security Threats
SIMAD
Organized Crime
Artificial Super Intelligence
Global Long-term Structural Unemployment
Nanotechnology – individual mass armies, gray goo
Augmented Geniuses – mini Hitlers, brain gap prejudice
Climate Change to Green Sky
Weakening Magnetic Poles
Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs
Technology Sensors, mesh networks, etc.
Public Prevention &
Detection Rolls
Mental Health, Child
Development, Education
Potential Global
Assessment by The
Millennium Project
Will our artificial Brains out think us?
Artificial Intelligence1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence
Future of Work?
Humans Augmented by technology
….rather than replaced by it?
If you can’t beat ‘em,
why not join ‘em?
…and evolve together?
Inevitability of New Economics
1. Concentration of wealth is increasing
2. Income gaps are widening
3. Employment-less economic growth seems the new normal
4. Return on investment in capital and technology is usually better
than labor
5. Number of persons per services & products is falling
6. 25-50% unemployment is a business-as-usual forecast by 2050
without new economic approaches
7. Need for national long-range strategic planning workshops
Future Work/Technology 2050 Study
1. Literature and Related Research Review
2. Real-Time Delphi
3. Road Maps and Scenario Drafts
4. RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios
5. Final Scenarios, Policy Implications, and produce initial report
6. Initial Report as input to the National Planning Workshops
7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze &
synthesize results
8. Final report for public discussion
Guaranteed income –cash flow projection elements
Income to Government• License and tax Robots• Carbon Tax• Tobin tax – on international financial transfers• Eliminate tax havens• Universal minimum corporate tax• Own percent of corporations• Tax massive wealth growth like some IT
Lower annual cost of guaranteed income • Consolidate welfare programs (unemployment payments, etc.) into the guaranteed income• AI/robotics lowers to cost of living• Free or very low cost health, education, transportation, and energy
Factors to consider• National service; Minimum annual public work• Phase in from work to “next” what every post-job/employment will be• Different incomes in different areas, countries• Can you both work income and guaranteed income?
Dense particles normally circling Earth, deep inside the magnetosphere, can extend a long arm out to meet – and help block – incoming solar material.
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/plume.gif
The Magnetosphere may weaken
enough in 500 years to no longer
protect life on the Earth
The sooner we start making plans to
leave the earth, the better
Run Away Greenhouse
at 1000 ppm CO2: Jim Hanson,
NASA http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-
fiction-runaway-greenhouse/
Hydrogen Sulfate 1000 ppm kills planetary
life , Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/paleontolog
ist-peter-wards-medea-hypothesis-life-is-out-to-get-you/
US-China Joint Goal: 350 ppm
The sooner we start making plans to leave the earth, the better…Insurance Policy
A single individual acting along eventually will be able to
make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction (SIMAD)
The public was not involved in Nuclear Deterrence other
than paying taxes, SIMAD is different – the public is key
The sooner we start making plans to leave the earth,
the better…Insurance Policy
If\then IoT collapse Information
war paranoia
IQ, Brain gap
mini Hitlers
SIMAD Proliferation of
Nano Armies
Mass
Unemployment
IoT collapse xxx
Information
war paranoia xxx
IQ, Brain gap,
mini Hitlers xxxSIMAD
xxxProliferation of
Nano Armies xxxMass
Unemployment xxx
Thinking the Unthinkable… Interactions of what can go wrong
Collective Intelligence Systems: Each Can Change the Other
… May become a TransInstitution
UNOrganizations
NGOsand
Foundations
Universities
GovernmentsCorporations
The Millennium Project
56 Millennium Project Nodes...
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Maybe… the greatest number of future-relevant facts, information, and intelligence ever assembled in one report.
For further information
Jerome C. Glenn+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
www.StateoftheFuture.org
Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html
2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html
Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html