global butane trade outlook 2017 - fgenergy.com · have been propane-focused market, propane-butane...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017
Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com
Key features and trends in the global butane market.
Leading consultancy for the oil & gas markets www.fgenergy.com
Post-2020, we expect that the LPG demand driver in Asia will switch
from China to the populous regions of South and SE Asia—from
India in the west to Indonesia in the east. The region presents
opportunities but also challenges for US supply that is further away.
Also South and SE Asia are butane-heavy or propane/butane mix
markets; whereas the US has been primarily exporting propane.
Interestingly though, the Middle East as a region was exporting a
greater proportion of butane in 2016 than it had in prior years. In
the future, with butane demand rising from South and SE Asia, the
Middle East shall remain as the main butane supplier, as how the
US slowly displacing them in East Asia for the propane markets.
However, the market length has been and continues to be in
propane because the US shale revolution has resulted in much more
propane in world markets, but not that much butane. As a result,
March 2017 Saudi CP, the widest divergence between propane and
butane prices seen since early 2013, could be a precursor of a future
wider divergence.
FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017
FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid/long-term operating environment for global butane trade. In this
study, we forecast butane demand and review likely incremental supplies to identify the potential pressures
on the global butane market and what this could mean for the stakeholders in the next 5-10 years.
Overview
This report provides a snapshot of:• Demand (import) and supply (export) projections for the
East and West until 2025• Butane market dynamics• Growing demand of LPG and butane in Asia Pacific• Specialized uses of butane particularly in China• Dynamics between natural gas and LPG
Key Areas Addressed in This Study
The East—particularly India, Indonesia, and China—will drive butane imports. Combined, they account
for about 65% of the Asia Pacific’s butane imports.
Chart 1 -
Asia: Butane Import Demand Centers
Butane imports will continue growing in the East and remain as the primary demand center. Import
demand will grow faster than supply growth.
Chart 2 -
Butane Trade East: Exports & Imports
Propane exports already exceed US retail demand. But butane exports, while growing, is subject
to local seasonal demand. In the post-2020 world, traders with access to US butane may have an
advantage to supply SE and South Asia.
Chart 3 -
US: Butane Outlets
0
100
200
300
400
500
2012 2016 2020 2025
kb/d
Retail
Petchem
Exports
Refining
6.8 7.2 7.6 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.5
5.3 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.52.3 2.6 2.8
3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.97.8 7.9
8.18.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
milliontons
India China Indonesia RestofAsiaPacific
20
22
24
26
28
30
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
milliontons
NetTotalExports NetTotalImports
Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com
FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017
Key Strengths of This Study
The predominant themes in the LPG market in recent years
have been propane-focused market, propane-butane length,
and increasing spread between propane and butane.
This study provides an in-depth and unique look at the growing
importance of butane. No other report in the market pays as
much attention to the topic.
This study highlights the key features and trends in the global
butane seaborne trade.
Coverage
This study covers butane for the key global supply and demand
regions from 2014 to 2025.
Butane demand by region is forecast through 2025, based on
FGE’s own methodology and models.
Additions to regional supply and demand are built up country-
by-country over the forecast period. Using our proprietary
models, butane balances are created for each region. This
creates our assessment of the “unbalanced” world, which
is then further re-iterated until a global balance is achieved.
The process of transition from imbalance to balance highlights
the pressures on the butane markets and provides the markets
with a unique perspective on the future international trade
environment.
Structure
Part I. Global Butane Trade
I. Global Butane Trade Overview
II. Major Export Regions
III. Major Import Regions
IV. Butane Trade Flow
Part II. Butane Imports East
I. Overall Butane Import Outlook: East
II. South Asia & East Asia
III. Southeast Asia
IV. Specialized Butane Uses
V. Focus Regions: LPG in South Asia and SE Asia
— LPG Sectoral Demand
— Natural Gas and LPG Dynamics
Part III. Butane Imports WestI. Overall Butane Import Outlook: WestII. North AfricaIII. MediterraneanIV. NW EuropeV. Latin America
Part IV. Butane Deep Processing ChinaI. Deep Dive on Butane for ‘Deep Processing’ in China
Further Information
If you are interested in obtaining further information on this study, or would like to order FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017,
please contact FGE’s sales team.
FGE London
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7726 9570
Email: [email protected]
Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com
This Study Will Add Value To:
FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017
FGE Singapore
Tel: +65 6222 0045
Oil Majors and Oil & Gas Companies
Seeking an outside perspective on the likely future economic
environment of the international butane trading market.
Petrochemical and Chemical Companies
Seeking an independent outlook of the international butane
trading market.
Shipowners
Conducting analysis of potential carrier demand.
Trading Houses
Identifying emerging underlying shifts in trade flows.
Deliverables:
PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout). An update of the report in mid-2018.
FGE will be available for a telephone call, WebEx meeting, or
a general meeting to present and discuss the key findings of
the report.
Front page image source: Epic Gas internal archives