global automotive trends, outlook & observations · 2015. 2016. saar. moving average. annual. us lv...

© 2015 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. www.lmc-auto.com

Global Automotive Trends, Outlook & ObservationsJeff SchusterLMC AutomotiveSenior Vice President, Global VehicleNovember 10, 2016

2© 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. www.lmc-auto.com

• Global Automotive Influences

• North America Demand Environment and Trends

• North American Production Outlook and Sourcing Trends

• Summary


Auto Sales Starting to Hit the Brakes

Global HeadlinesDRIVEN TO NEGOTIATE: HOW UNIFOR RODE U.S. AUTO SALES

TRUMP???


4% 2%4%

World 2016 forecast: 93.1 mn, up 3.9 mn units (+4.4%)

6% 6%1%

5%9%

6%

-8%

-13%

-2%

-11%

-21%

-11%

North AmericaAsia Pacific

C&E EuropeWestern Europe

South America

14 15 16F

World

14 15 16F

14 15 16F

14 15 16F

14 15 16F14 15 16F

5% 3%7%

Global LV Sales – Recent Boots Driven by China

27.6

17.4

4.8

3.6

3.4

China

US

Japan

Germany

India

Source: LMC Automotive

2016 -Top CountriesLV Sales (Millions)

Chart1

APAPAP

2014

2015 YTD

2015F

0.036

0.02

0.043

Sheet1

20142015 YTD2015F

AP3.6%2.0%4.3%

To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

Chart1

NANANA

2014

2015

2016F

0.0598410898

0.062

0.011

Sheet1

201420152016F

NA6.0%6.2%1.1%


Chart1

WEWEWE

2014

2015

2016F

0.0540486177

0.091

0.063

Sheet1

201420152016F

WE5.4%9.1%6.3%


Chart1

EEEEEE

2014

2015

2016F

-0.076

-0.132

-0.02

Sheet1

201420152016F

EE-7.6%-13.2%-2.0%


Chart1

SASASA

2014

2015

2016

-0.106

-0.212

-0.11

Sheet1

201420152016

SA-10.6%-21.2%-11.0%


Chart1

APAPAP

2014

2015

2016

0.0485559297

0.029

0.07

Sheet1

201420152016

AP4.9%2.9%7.0%


Chart1

China

US

Japan

Germany

India

2016

27.594

17.422

4.827

3.638

3.431

Sheet1

2016

China27.594

US17.422

Japan4.827

Germany3.638

India3.431



88.792.6 93.7 93.7

.37 .28 .27 .13 .06 -.01

87

89

91

93

95

97

Global Production Growth is in Near-term


• Volume expected to be up 4.3% in 2016, on strong growth in China due to boost in demand from tax cut. 2017 growth slows to 1.1% on China’s pull forward impact spills over to production (-500K decline).

• Growth slows in WE with volume up a marginal 6K on Brexit uncertainty, while Central and Easter Europe see growth across much of the region, including recovery starting in Russia (+11%).

• Brazil also expected to start recover in 2017, up 8% but remaining risky. NA continues localization trend and expansion into Mexico, but growth only at 1.5% for year.

Chart1

20152015

20162016

ROWROW

NANA

CECE

SASA

WEWE

APAP

20172017

Series 1

Series 2

.37

.28

.27

.13

.06

-.01

88726.761

92573.862

92573.862

372.834

92946.696

276.607

93223.303

269.522

93492.825

134.128

93626.953

62.361

93677.677

11.637

93677.677

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2updated

201588726.76192573.9

201692573.992946.7China84399.02124REGIONAL MAKE(All)

ROW92573.9373546.1393492.8USA86523.0840REGIONAL MODEL(All)S. Korea87449.249108.332

NA92946.696277- 00.0W.Europe87363.0626MODEL CODE(All)PIVOT TABLE HELPOther NA87607.65799.323

CE93223.3270- 093689.3ROW87988.8220GLOBAL MAKE(All)Indonesia87706.9866.371

SA93492.81341- 00.0S. Korea88208.8108GLOBAL SALES MODEL(All)Philippines87557.58150.076

WE93627.062- 093689.3Other NA88317.199TYPE(All)Japan87782.88748.799

AP93677.7122- 00.0India88416.569REGIONAL SEGMENT(All)Other Asia87400.90648.343

201793677.7- 00.0Indonesia88485.066GLOBAL STANDARD SEGMENT(All)India87773.3519.536

201896612.0- 00.0Philippines88551.350GLOBAL SIZE(All)

90866423310- 00.0Japan88601.449GLOBAL BODYSTYLE(All)

0.0119- 00.0Other Asia88650.254SALES GROUP(All)

- 00.0CEE-Russ/Turk88704.10GLOBAL STATUS(All)

Africa76476- 00.0Other SA88703.795

Asia-Pacific1282435- 00.0Turkey88608.6164Data

Eastern Europe28140- 00.0Brazil88444.7349REGIONCOUNTRYSum of 2011Sum of 2012Sum of 2013Sum of 2014Sum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021

Middle East327358- 00.0Argentina88095.727674313AfricaSouth Africa565827614570662177736490773335804010829952856157885236910902874338

North America424092- 00.0Thailand87820.143374313Africa Total565827614570662177736490773335804010829952856157885236910902874338

South America-4110460.0Russia87387.2446-22390AsiaAustralia9888761088990111145010890601129683117024411990331211998122400312362661248692

Western Europe41916493677.7201486941.31524520China1800197619204601218750722339959225872016279953073009174131730767329643633399853734983585

4038342%68536India29333003270382292659629951323367845393185745694705277746606726269158767828225

Oct16 adjustment from sales adjustmentsalesproduction11506%66371Indonesia7946351013597111398511803561273788138952615067561616587171951318068191896974

20161,261,353967000Sep ProdAdj Oct1%48799Japan41339885268882525503553038344673519439477944046484369263433145142910064249646

20171,070,303885500916525979261959793677677-10580807%108332Korea15444451511014150794916162811622167162563816309781630646162487216169741608863

2018399,02540000093067073939525733%16701Malaysia595812624129649171665872666289701812731433757726772870788290804117

2019303,5203000009634270396742703Other Asia48343-19%-4043NEW ZEALAND2088220882208821683920834236442516925169242312423126067

2020201,47122500010036667410066667424%50076Philippines163723180792205583255659269704288536300106312131324598334303344395

2021302,94632500010295494210317994211%40390Taiwan365852350697363062403452415967437150452948457729462308459918457732

2022420,931425000105846033106171033-34%-432931Thailand77371314027221286306853375930505103443211251691191907124694212899221324339

2023590,33760000010828223210870723216%17685Vietnam12175985652110496128181141371152716164906178101192346207768224159

1100985711106985716%2082046Asia Total3043896134022340364255873850763340383688431456414620235748759770509547595296991054996794

24%1676Eastern EuropeBosnia1322085527024870011000135001600018500215002400025000

13%3004Bulgaria2086822498226722567626320288443222736363406684423947832

9%2696CROATIA4466834988311043380039500460005240058600658007300081300

12%21665Czech Republic186229185808176415198080203533218732235393253466271650287450296754

6%1400Estonia1904621867223442374425018280973132233007347763668338049

20%13267Hungary5631363791674208068792182107110122162138196151730163037170470

5%7771Kazakhstan4452195221163014170785182396205057234142258560279648299706320272

16%1975Latvia1246212622126491462417151208532575228661314583331935317

15%2008Lithuania1480813644137671577517815210922481628556311693339235081

5%300MACEDONIA78645876570060007000810090009900108001190012700

11%35242Poland320165312067332756367998397324442835488682534685572289605700639698

20%15749Romania106511842127847194220105634122497140548159011178598198507213012

-16%-445875Russia26453192934413277155423256792240544235376824855682627873274776528436822931191

6%1224SERBIA3190021900207762200024600283003170034900373003920040800

10%6787Slovakia73591740997092477711833239040798330106375114894121533127400

0%270Slovenia6456954937574815775162064655407004074070763437859180747

-609822-19%-163947Turkey86468777788385364868970173637378884285887092644097784410303341079915

-50%-113656Ukraine222076253903225647111991119960134890157138185266214804243765271552

1378-12%-608444Eastern Europe Total47488174978281493336643249224391737472446451140905512429585903661680386447090

-0%-144Middle EastEgypt163692182436183792183648237516264876284172305052321984339540357204

-0%-3489Iran1605819101501771638571289697192299882312144691461399161591117248771683717

-0%-3633Middle East Total176951111974539001778965441209438126369914986411766451193789520644172040921

9932367849North AmericaCanada15824391678338174247218103211823679183276118405841847306184935618534451859257

31474Mexico898453981406105748310889571122358117862212455141307439135826014009351430799

825145USA1274164014471719155729311639807616726442168572571695316417122089173030611746881217609288

924468North America Total1522253217131463183728861929735419672479198686402003926220276834205106772072319220899344

-1355OtherOTHER10655061072197107032310689681153454115657811072001101148115028811437691143360

-1355Other Total10655061072197107032310689681153454115657811072001101148115028811437691143360

-63924.6153941064-146445.163210779South AmericaArgentina407783424642488994342548.836789221316593.206496445349188.175556162384573.036923761405402.418044539417754.971155135418733.957445582423957.772620608

-86021.5123006087Brazil1618678174014816399951553973.487699391651565.189713211694525.517460761737124.548554551809598.015463551898745.737704981959555.085067292021593.71148602

-39772.0928873451Chile334004338811378209338436.907112655365658394908422551452128474735493723503599

16980.1890894933Colombia256704265533247567264547.189089493276876.897441906296811.137539242313088.506801885327346.883074616343179.45086838355539.111917987360873.351371319

5230.1235726914Ecuador83050787598211487344.123572691499264.233509529102692.020373281107237.878926134111245.559546525113352.24013395115697.338795042118115.944388306

6384.9896120717Peru129592155018169475175859.989612072187689.999628523199839211302.286062141218648.310976197224618.311823758228525.311691688232184.310638197

2293Uruguay5144053224573325962563204651006640867728687466964070336

-55040.8247810177Venezuela7256384601632838242.175218982315966.519182805226650.107778090943049.008834639764813.271702837977643.549769122783906.375980774689131.6398117089

-296391.290905495South America Total2953814314073631269692830577.709094512976818.045972413129713.958707533285334.266103113456910.458808263618775.261455323725320.180898363819791.73031616

-5289Western EuropeAustria389657369172351522346233359478361002360372362240365036365529366931

-5456Belgium633579541596539733534277550510566038570930576416580510584099587563

5843Denmark194217194956206235212078194958192444195340198056200559202922205231

212Finland140816122965114055114267123067133579143828152032157625160982161909

21995France26328952282197215736921793642245638231965924138192484628254786725736202597328

108921Germany34028203298114316223032711513341243339063934130503422576342926934287493429105

13226Greece10338261849619347516089233100503126107148230162933186925215419

28154Ireland1005279002785192113346127532140770152262164169177408190470202940

76447Italy19191501518868139822014746671653110183790120162492157297228983423268572333207

-5127Luxembourg5251052169528494772251693527065355454482553135573056295

-53476Netherlands614429558902467827414351477736527749580663601684611539621257631233

1419Norway176550173073174694176113191592200508202783205061207453209716211569

45181Portugal188153111217124071169252191153209039221576245634268688284212304760

152379Spain9117067691228079519603301066693115785912579481345320142358415047061586692

39573Sweden351556319057306463346036346398349413352339354414354015354726358917

-15986Switzerland346528359379340025324039332101333124336332338269339631340827342519

217035UK22068272291323254261927596542785745280296628192752836927284492928546962874010

625051Western Europe Total1436530213113986128929891351804014127880146758991521642715647435160161931624602316465628

2796054.70909451Grand Total71130270752710267838447481180528.709094584688829.045972488768644.958707593293263.266103197377134.4588083100932859.261455103951571.180898106687266.730316


92.3% 92.7%74.6%

36.4%65.8%

79.6%66.2% 57.1%68.8% 59.5%

81.5% 79.4%

0%25%50%75%

100%

2013 2016NA SA WE EE China Japan

73.1% 68.2%

2013 2016

Global

_ _

Capacity Utilization takes a hit in 2016 on struggling South America and East Europe. China’slow utilization a function of heavy investment without consolidation of old capacity.

Short-Term Capacity Utilization


Chart1

201320132013201320132013

201620162016201620162016

NA

SA

WE

EE

China

Japan

0.9229464668

0.7461801488

0.657652623

0.6618598822

0.68846693

0.8153081842

0.9268940302

0.3643094896

0.7959403361

0.5713015112

0.594945

0.7940297679

Sheet1

20132016

NA92.3%92.7%

SA74.6%36.4%

WE65.8%79.6%

EE66.2%57.1%

China68.8%59.5%

Japan81.5%79.4%


Chart1

2013

2016

_

_

Global

0.7307624993

0.68165

Sheet1

20132016

Global73.1%68.2%



-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%VW

Toyo

ta

Ren-

Nis

Hyun

dai/K

ia

GM

Ford

Hond

a

FCA

PSA

Suzu

ki/M

arut

i

Daim

ler

BMW

SAIC

• Global OEM leads with mixed 2 groups dip into negative growth.

• VW diesel scandal risk - China growth and US prod. stability driving pace. Toyota is exposed in Japan but RAV4 and C-HR in EE doing well.

• R-N growth with new product barrage - Lannia in China, Kwid in India.

• GM up with expansion in China (Cadillac). Ford flat with weakness across Europe and exposure in BR/AR.

• Honda tops growth – Fit/Freed MPV in Japan and CR-V/Ridgeline in NA. FCA gains with Alfa expansion and Fiat Egea in EE, but falls in NA/SA.

• Suzuki transition in Asia – ceases in Malaysia, down in Japan, growth in India.

Global OEMs - Short-term OutlookGlobal Production Growth from 2015


Chart1

VW

Toyota

Ren-Nis

Hyundai/Kia

GM

Ford

Honda

FCA

PSA

Suzuki/Maruti

Daimler

BMW

SAIC

0.0349197024

0.0058703486

0.056904904

-0.0046849485

0.024567065

0.001904729

0.0834574616

0.0064226528

0.019746091

-0.0362003393

0.0677726628

0.0453324887

0.0510400257

Sheet1

VWToyotaRen-NisHyundai/KiaGMFordHondaFCAPSASuzuki/MarutiDaimlerBMWSAIC

0.03491970240.00587034860.056904904-0.00468494850.0245670650.0019047290.08345746160.00642265280.019746091-0.03620033930.06777266280.04533248870.0510400257

Toyota GroupVolkswagen GroupRenault-Nissan GroupHyundai GroupGeneral Motors GroupFord GroupFiat Chrysler AutomobilesHonda GroupPSA GroupSuzuki Group

0.0147847994-0.00266042840.04753301150.02417823580.01426340290.01631163760.02272028620.04942181940.01936795210.0096134998

0.0015632473-0.00375037240.0466986548-0.00160327940.02107597630.02917732580.02204948350.04008790540.0314713215-0.0154821136

0.16%16-Sep16-Aug

-0.38%0.03491970240.0293163691

4.67%0.00587034860.0059309255

-0.16%0.0569049040.0425348379

2.11%-0.0046849485-0.0081601528

2.92%0.0245670650.0208787431

2.20%0.001904729-0.0024949027

4.01%0.08345746160.0839748621

3.15%0.00642265280.0068465487

-1.55%0.0197460910.0147624399

-0.0362003393-0.043396656

0.06777266280.0594982797

0.04533248870.0477628847

0.05104002570.0429872279


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%19

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

23

LV SalesGDP

Year-on-year growth, World

Average historical growth ratesLV Sales: 3.1% GDP: 2.9%

2016:93 mn

2023:111 mn

Average 2015-2023 growth ratesLV Sales: 2.7% GDP: 2.7%

Will Global Growth be Sustained?

Source: LMC Automotive, Oxford Economics

Chart1

19991999

20002000

20012001

20022002

20032003

20042004

20052005

20062006

20072007

20082008

20092009

20102010

20112011

20122012

20132013

20142014

20152015

20162016

20172017

20182018

20192019

20202020

20212021

20222022

20232023

LV Sales

GDP

0.0248406082

0.030701468

0.0370104935

0.0427034805

-0.0009897188

0.0215937584

0.0118881444

0.0223586049

0.028197178

0.0288148425

0.0472701152

0.0416346509

0.0384838337

0.0396049959

0.0419426087

0.0430126736

0.0512582698

0.0429262493

-0.0518415923

0.0202691897

-0.0277869142

-0.0144262371

0.1391107706

0.0390983958

0.0412492221

0.0328535545

0.0553533235

0.0254324935

0.0412996757

0.0239200801

0.0364045558

0.0273439902

0.0198873115

0.026

0.042

0.022

0.0093194339

0.026

0.0306228659

0.028

0.036946103

0.028

0.0266134831

0.028

0.0298775897

0.027

0.0251685816

0.027

0.0216197386

0.027

Sheet1

Column1LV SalesGDP

19992.5%3.1%

20003.7%4.3%

2001-0.1%2.2%

20021.2%2.2%

20032.8%2.9%

20044.7%4.2%

20053.8%4.0%

20064.2%4.3%89241928.921508592209856.057996993915416.099048496791375.2881153100367439.412721103038566.564706106117110.582439108787927.737505111139894.297788

20075.1%4.3%

2008-5.2%2.0%

2009-2.8%-1.4%

201013.9%3.9%

20114.1%3.3%

20125.5%2.5%

20134.1%2.4%

20143.6%2.7%

20152.0%2.6%89241928.9215085

20164.2%2.2%930482590.0426518132

20170.9%2.6%93915416.09904840.0093194339

20183.1%2.8%96791375.28811530.0306228659

20193.7%2.8%100367439.4127210.036946103

20202.7%2.8%103038566.5647060.0266134831

20213.0%2.7%106117110.5824390.0298775897

20222.5%2.7%108787927.7375050.0251685816

20232.2%2.7%111139894.2977880.0216197386

2.690%2.656%


19.0% 17.6%

4.1% 2.9%15.0% 13.8%

2.5% 1.8%

24.7% 30.2%

10.9% 7.6%

4.2% 6.2%0.8% 1.9%

13.6% 13.9%

5.3% 4.1%

2013 2023

OtherIranIndiaS KoreaJapanChinaRussiaWEBrazilNA

• Mature production hubs (NA, WE, Japan, S Korea) continue to lose ground as Emerging hubs expand further. Exception - Russia and Brazil not expected to return to 2013 levels.

• 44 new factories in China, averaging 150k of volume by 2023 drives growth lead; India adds 5 since 2013, but nothing new planned from 2016-2023.

• Iran gain due to restart of production after sanctions lifted then expansion.

Share of Global Production

Global LV Production – Spreading Resources


Chart1

2013201320132013201320132013201320132013

2023202320232023202320232023202320232023

NA

Brazil

WE

Russia

China

Japan

S Korea

India

Iran

Other

0.1904395469

0.0411715403

0.14967747

0.0245204211

0.2465526582

0.1091354164

0.052671862

0.0419258702

0.0083580525

0.1355471624

0.176094529

0.028908486

0.1384579823

0.0182061219

0.3018112833

0.0759528205

0.040890894

0.0618326917

0.0190649523

0.138780239

Sheet1

20132023

NA19.0%0.176094529

Brazil4.1%0.028908486

WE15.0%0.1384579823

Russia2.5%0.0182061219

China0.24655265820.3018112833

Japan0.10913541640.0759528205

S Korea0.0526718620.040890894

India0.04192587020.0618326917

Iran0.00835805250.0190649523

Other0.13554716240.138780239



15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

27%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total # of Platforms (LHA) Top 10 % of Ttl Prdxn (RHA)

Push to global consolidation: Top-10 platform share increases even though total platform count increases


Global Platforms – Push to Globalization


0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

China

France

Germany

Italy

Japan

Korea

USA

Other20132023

• Shift in primary design lead location is consistent with push toward global modular platforms. Germany and Japan dominate volume scale, with most design coordinated from headquarters.

• China gains on maturing Chinese industry and volume, while US and Korea contract slightly.

• Secondary design remains important and will drive some sourcing decisions.

Trend in Primary Design Lead Location



42.7%

8.3%

9.5%

1.6%

32.7%

5.3%

2023

52.6%

8.8%

10.5%

1.4%

19.7%

6.9%

2013TraditionalCarMAV/MPV

Pickup

Sporty Car

SUV

• SUVs grow to 1/3 of all light vehicles by 2023, coming mainly from traditional cars (sedans, wagons), but most body types lose share over forecast horizon.

• Only other body type to grow on a global scale is Sporty Car, with volume growth spread across all regions. Volume and growth dominated by German Premium Sporty and American Muscle. In addition, Honda, Hyundai and Mazda expand in segment.

• Pickup volume expands by 1.5mn units over period , with growth concentrated in Asia and North America.

Global Body Type – Movement from Cars to SUVs


Chart1

Traditional Car

MAV/MPV

Pickup

Sporty Car

SUV

Van

2023

2023

0.4271846268

0.0825259787

0.094796225

0.0157284505

0.3267524657

0.0530122533

Sheet1

2023

Traditional Car0.4271846268

MAV/MPV0.0825259787

Pickup0.094796225

Sporty Car0.0157284505

SUV0.3267524657

Van0.0530122533


Chart1

Traditional Car

MAV/MPV

Pickup

Sporty Car

SUV

Van

2013

2013

52.6%

0.5261898981

0.0881395234

0.1052515257

0.014201893

0.197363393

0.0688537667

Sheet1

2013

Traditional Car0.5261898981

MAV/MPV0.0881395234

Pickup0.1052515257

Sporty Car0.014201893

SUV0.197363393

Van0.0688537667






• Summary


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

US Canada Mexico

North America GDP Snapshot – Trending Lower!

Source: Oxford Economics

• US – Q3 real GDP growth stands at 2.9% (in line with the BEA). Moderating growth expected in 4Q (closer to 2%). Oct Jobs was upbeat, adding 161,000 but labor market is maturing which will likely lower consumer spending to 2%. GDP growth expected to average a soft 1.5% for 2016 and around 2% in 2017 and 2018.

• Canada – We expect downbeat GDP growth of 1.2% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, supported by slowly strengthening non-energy activity and a fading drag from the energy sector. Debt levels and low oil prices could be further drag.

• Mexico – GDP growth of 2.0% in 2016, but lower uptick in 2017 and 2018 (2.5%) amid lower growth in the US. The job market remains strong but inflation is starting to rise from low levels.

Chart1

201420142014

201520152015

201620162016

201720172017

201820182018

US

Canada

Mexico

0.0242775531

0.0247289923

0.0225263784

0.02596313

0.01078312

0.02470004

0.01459079

0.01170626

0.01960627

0.01975977

0.01817347

0.02519675

0.02015157

0.0160835

0.0243143

Sheet1

20142015201620172018

US2.43%2.60%1.46%1.98%2.02%

Canada2.47%1.08%1.17%1.82%1.61%

Mexico2.25%2.47%1.96%2.52%2.43%


17.018.3

19.4 20.7 21.021.0 21.8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2023

Mill

ions

2016:1.94mn+2.1%

2016:17.42mn-0.2%

2016:1.58mn+17.8%

NA Demand Summary+1.2% +0.2%+6.2%


Chart1

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2023

NA

Millions

17034251

18308822

19362213

20684795

20958128

20983931

21806570

Sales

CUBE:CXMD:GLV Sales

20162017

17,443,69617,439,00717,417,60317936389497,382

1,896,7061,935,4821,941,464202233786,855

1,344,3931,583,6391,624,8641847844264,205

2012201320142015201620172023

1.32%0.12%0

NA17,034,25118,308,82219,362,21320,684,79520,958,12820,983,93121,806,5701,121,7750%

17942375.111

2040426.002390262,040,4260%

18478441,847,8440%

6.8%1.3%0.0%18.195135

0.0%0.0%18195135

0.0%0.0%

0.0%

1,357,0531,372,3991,397,8261,422,4841,463,6841,505,6351,556,685

1467454.389602661531349.362185031551624.975796851586278.253916291624513.608521861660615.25619724

17398737175126361764535518353751

17.443696000217.398737361517.512636336617.64535517.707892917.861185518.011667518.184022218.35375111

1.8967061.96772988851.98275928612.0351714

1896706196773019827592035171

15447211588764

20162017201820192020202120222023

19220641918922191859619247241931676194138119725621981832

1415627.325065311475223.363688421531339.720467211551581.853563541586231.763410431624458.412102181660587.822470751705930.43359823

17808211.146216517965702.650063518039940.63281618063565.813049518087803.597749318122253.021670118148900.884332818174574.152277

17,808,21117,965,703


89

1011121314151617181920

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

SAAR Moving Average Annual

US LV sales – Monthly Selling Rate (SAAR) TrendOctober sales came in slightly ahead of expectations with an 18 million unit SAAR. However, YTD sales are off 0.1% from 2015 and retail demand is off 1.7%.



14.2mn

13.6mn

2014 2015 1.Disposable

Income

2.Unemp. Stock

Market

4.3.HousingMarket

5.Fuel

Prices

6.Credit/Terms

10.ProductActivity

7.VehicleEquity

2016F

Volu

me

VehiclePrice

8. 9.IncentiveActions

Total Sales16.5mn

14.0mn

13.8mn

Risk

-1.3% YoY

17.4mnTotal Sales

Macro Factors Consumer Internals & OEM Drivers

Total Sales17.4mn Growth in Fleet/Contraction in Retail – Fleet at 19.5%, up from 18% in 2015

US LV Sales Driven by Multitude of Factors

Source: JDP PIN, LMC Automotive


38.8% share

1.8%SUV growth slows from very strong 2015, but gains on small/compact demand, expanded lineups, favorable fuel prices.

13.8% share

After falling 1 ppt. in 2015, D-Segment Cars continue to lose share to SUV demand.

1.4%

SUVs gain, but lower compact car demand hurts Premium.12.3% share

0.0%

15.0% share

0.5%

7.1% share

0.5%

Pickups continue to gain ground given low gas prices and new products.

Vans gain from new Pacifica, Metris, plus Transit. SUVs cut into personal MPV market.

2016 US Sales Segment Share Movement


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiP5uj0nf7OAhVQxCYKHQ1lCDkQjRwIBw&url=http://www.autoblog.com/buy/2017-GMC-Acadia-SL__Front_wheel_Drive/pricing/&psig=AFQjCNGakPy1yXeFfC9lu9zfTf9-57Jtrg&ust=1473371185423682


17.4 17.417.5 17.7

17.9

15.4

17.9

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

• Baseline US LV topline is expected to grow at a CAGR of just 0.3% from 2015-2023 with 2017 now expected to be lower than 2016. Slow (>2%) economic growth supporting long run in autos! Risks to baseline include lease maturities (used car substitute), tighter credit and trade/fiscal policies.

• Negative bias with recession scenario - mild with short duration as volume falls to 15.4mn in 2019, a 12% drop from baseline. Recovery may be hampered by lower density growth, car sharing and regulations impact.

• Outperform scenario – Near-term up from VW buyback and lease maturities followed by technology driven increase as market transitions. CAGR still only 0.8%.


US Demand Still Expected to Grow?

Chart1

2012201220122012

2013201320132013

2014201420142014

2015201520152015

2016201620162016

2017201720172017

2018201820182018

2019201920192019

2020202020202020

2021202120212021

2022202220222022

2023202320232023

Baseline

Recession/Lower Density

Outpace

2012

14.471721

14.471721

14.471721

2013

15.572933

15.572933

15.572933

2014

16.490843

16.490843

16.490843

2015

17.444835

17.444835

17.444835

2016

17.4390069268

17.3013552329

17.5528117759

2017

17.4176032385

17.0756290315

17.6367166873

2018

17.459595

16.8616433287

17.6883135819

2019

17.4837039

15.424187466

17.9120941376

2020

17.5901855

16.6491149768

18.1859344547

2021

17.721685

16.9392726073

18.3220779661

2022

17.85270222

17.3216557398

18.445568859

2023

17.9363895

17.5446408169

18.5676174641

Sheet1

BaselineRecession/Lower DensityOutpace

201214.47172114.47172114.471721

201315.57293315.57293315.572933

201416.49084316.49084316.490843RecessionOutpace

201517.44483517.44483517.444835

201617.439006926817.301355232917.5528117759-0.8%-0.3419742070.99210667821.0065258790.6%17.4390069268

201717.417603238517.075629031517.6367166873-2.0%-0.59795167130.98036617311.012580.5%17.4176032385

201817.45959516.861643328717.6883135819-3.4%-2.0595164340.96575225991.0130998790.3%17.459595

201917.483703915.42418746617.9120941376-12%-0.94107052320.8822036541.02450225881.3%17.4837039

202017.590185516.649114976818.1859344547-5.3%-0.78241239270.94650025021.03386825881.5%17.5901855

202117.72168516.939272607318.3220779661-4.4%-0.53104648020.955851.0338790.7%17.721685

202217.8527022217.321655739818.445568859-3.0%-0.39174868310.9702541.033208790.7%17.8540222

202317.936389517.544640816918.5676174641-2.2%00.9781591.03519258790.7%17.942375111

0.3%0.00071336940.0078274065


17

13

18

14

19

15

22 23

13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Num

ber o

f New

Ent

ries

New SUV Entries SUV Mix of Majors/Minors

150 New Entries/Majors/Minors!

More SUVs are Coming!



020406080

100120140

1Q00

1Q02

1Q04

1Q06

1Q08

1Q10

1Q12

1Q14

1Q16

1Q18

1Q20

1Q22

1Q24

Price of Oil to 2025

30%36% 39% 40%+

YTDSep10

YTDSep15

YTDSep16

2020F

US Sales – SUV share

0

100

200

300

400

500

Thou

sand

s YTD Sep – Hybrid/EV Sales Down!

• Regulation coming tougher on cars to hit milestones

• Expected price of oil will not drive push toward compact car EVs

• SUVs continue to grow – but will likely need stronger EV penetration

• Pickups have place in future, share expected to hold at 15%


Consumers want SUVs!

YTD Sep16 -5%

Collision Course…Not So Fast?


0

5

10

15

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

# of

Ent

ries

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Volu

me

(mn)

Large Pickup Volume Segment ShareVolume and share level off as overall market growth flattens and Midsize Pickup gains entrants

Dodge to Ram transition

Avalanche Exits

US Large Pickup Market Will Remain Steady






• Summary


17.5

0.20 0.420.22

17.9 18.2

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

Drops

New Entries

Additional Growth

•NA growth up 2.4% on the year with 16 new entries or in first full year. Some pressure on Q4 given plant shutdowns, 2H growth now expected less than 2%, down from 2.9% in 1H.•2017 outlook remains solid but lower growth rates (1.8%), given flattening of demand, but launch activity remains strong - New entries and Redesigns increase to 33 from 23 in 2016.

Short-term Production Outlook – North America


Chart1

201520152015

17252261199887

17252261420000

17672261216025

201620162016

201720172017

2015

17452148

2016

17900000

2017

18200000

NA Production Walk

17,472,374227,739Data

17,252,261220,113447,85217,672,261September NAPFSum of 2013Sum of 2014Sum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023Sum of 2015Q1Sum of 2015Q2Sum of 2015Q3Sum of 2015Q4Sum of 2016Q1Sum of 2016Q2Sum of 2016Q3Sum of 2016Q4

Total16,152,76316,966,71317,452,14817,948,37618,179,54518,364,47118,930,07319,078,60519,234,81119,314,32919,387,7564,257,0144,530,7174,346,7094,317,7084,450,0054,607,5024,479,2274,411,642

2015201620172018H2 AnalysisH120158,787,731

17,252,26117,252,26117,672,261H220158,664,417

17,452,148199,887420,000216,02517,900,0001820000018364471.0H120169,057,507269,7763.1%

2.6%1.7%0.9%H220168,890,869226,4522.6%

DropsNew EntriesAdditional Growth227,73917,888,2860.0261358612

3%-132,90811,714

17,252,26118139876184199641.7%0.9%18763590

1745214818032908183198761862796417,888,286399,119

18014670

66,294

Data

LOCAL MODELSum of 2013Sum of 2014Sum of 2015New EntriesDropsAdd GrowthSum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023

March55,66666,08672,3932,26874,66173,60688,79886,322103,616103,092100,710105,698

1500324,828365,593390,36345,881436,244410,704391,765375,319371,699370,896381,024376,440

200130,786159,054180,083-137,05543,0280000000

2500/3500143,313146,692156,9574,347161,304183,053192,625196,993197,743190,621188,842197,442

3 Series000000011,74355,63757,35253,62759,499

3 Series GT000000006,94226,94127,72326,689

30072,71159,68266,403-8,32358,08055,44054,90162,79960,57953,66655,42851,902

4 Series00000000029,27433,67732,339

50053,25047,30133,518-20,92512,59321,7283,23900000

Acadia107,02097,47999,56923,595123,164117,312105,845106,58299,30596,87295,957103,514

Accent0000040,67389,14283,07381,07979,36784,85881,486

Accord466,695401,538379,3852,030381,415376,541384,305367,807368,545364,715363,189377,135

A-Class0000003,83614,24412,99312,21112,94311,975

Alaskan0000007,7149,7359,6209,6269,4909,737

Altima383,804366,225346,530-4,134342,396347,933354,567342,582333,680336,008332,890347,329

Armada16,52413,19917,440-17,43910000000

ATS47,84638,82923,35737923,73631,73426,7477,1050000

Avalanche11,08900000000000

Avalon100,00372,29069,088-15,23153,85756,12759,45462,80157,75461,06156,84955,524

Avenger121,94418,9230000000000

Aveo80,01569,24677,425-90476,52172,20085,34978,35740,941000

Beetle109,51491,46464,0354,49068,52568,02460,28198,47884,43482,05082,49983,286

Blazer0000008,59285,48378,30477,83779,94978,334

Bolt0002,8422,84222,03019,53516,89720,42418,75016,07922,305

Bronco000000030,40267,75864,99663,42467,231

Camaro92,53385,07974,51324,57799,09084,76668,82576,94276,06387,35995,06888,879

Camry445,890447,059444,888-12,748432,140378,521424,802412,149404,258418,442405,395404,827

Canyon09,65740,1553,14943,30445,70237,17533,60033,54535,47534,14734,467

Captiva Sport58,65744,9875,183-3,8371,3460000000

Caravan185,192209,583145,61642,484188,10072,900000000

C-Class040,09693,505-15,59077,91577,34497,36589,51087,14491,40194,08588,492

CD Coupe000000006,68815,00312,0078,175

Challenger56,10159,46070,2569,78180,03770,58960,92771,07369,50065,13964,52758,743

Charger115,908103,687116,571-14,715101,85696,04896,806107,730106,19697,54097,36893,224

Cherokee72,958275,518294,274-21,964272,310260,204265,249257,001250,155267,781265,701265,897

City Express09,58221,906-10,61411,29216,51216,82516,09919,60418,84318,32317,962

Civic439,422418,315396,94250,983447,925415,145400,364410,420376,731420,316403,223381,575

C-Max38,53227,09423,619-4,79718,82224,50410,71100000

Colorado018,18596,98921,107118,096120,83997,36685,46482,65292,14188,09590,356

Compact Car0000000004,27123,80322,543

Compact Hybrid00000018,75186,27288,43687,37089,59186,750

Compact SUV0000009,68445,34346,99947,17549,74848,684

Compass00011,60811,608193,153188,602189,325193,690188,253187,360195,542

Compass (old)128,514136,26898,15314,203112,3560000000

Continental00013,83013,83036,19527,43623,02024,89820,39918,14420,065

Corolla354,575431,570441,925-27,117414,808426,000412,334403,147409,675388,902399,491388,256

Corvette15,88740,11240,255-4,58635,66924,96031,05834,75819,6165,87800

Corvette (Zora)00000005,7557,8777,7157,4337,596

Crosstour16,92413,0795,165-5,16500000000

Cruze282,945289,831269,13612,118281,254278,653261,702258,392266,404279,263282,317277,467

CR-V418,076409,154445,263-3,283441,980468,411450,593448,147447,243444,811474,893470,950

CT3000000089325,61224,54723,91826,270

CT4000000003,6347,2306,9416,699

CT5000000028,05829,14527,45425,74128,200

CT600020,63420,63422,12720,15521,89419,38017,23923,40922,657

CTS35,19531,50218,059-1,02517,03417,92813,51400000

Dart88,97382,51196,431-68,00028,4310000000

Durango69,63774,27575,3772,50077,87773,09766,27260,35955,70753,13753,10253,180

Edge192,813163,199142,08848,747190,835178,185176,529158,246155,209148,599163,814159,162

Elantra194,059161,447172,22816,780189,008192,029175,863180,757174,510183,519180,914178,355

ELR2701,944546-2892570000000

Enclave68,93566,22862,7993,61566,41455,18567,90062,66556,54761,56958,15256,243

Encore00000001,54270,62473,13371,27474,936

Equinox257,321266,329285,458-1,021284,437404,640376,478367,019379,126381,947375,543384,134

Escalade15,83218,52228,31026828,57825,37427,30422,44326,83927,51325,22225,898

Escalade ESV10,0549,71018,06794719,01416,11213,11115,10816,83718,39515,87314,849

Escalade EXT1,16800000000000

Escape377,664358,670383,703-13,662370,041382,430369,805381,153378,662374,642390,508399,307

E-Series132,390105,48752,84730053,14749,96745,59844,77543,14242,04940,74842,654

ES-Series004,08839,36843,45646,54444,89253,89449,23847,72449,90248,146

Expedition48,19042,33938,6235,21243,83544,52252,43749,17545,90948,19545,44045,646

Expedition EL20,65320,11519,8952,61522,5106,972000000

Explorer246,866284,993286,97228,060315,032297,623281,210284,801263,731259,743266,231269,600

Express87,04181,29469,85216,25786,10991,42084,25174,65475,88176,57550,05028,179

FHEV0000018,87750,04244,51445,67647,57244,40045,752

Fiesta139,807114,491105,272-33,46171,81173,807000000

Fit083,13445,176-20,58124,59531,82151,48185,85791,79883,34179,53480,347

Flex33,45324,37123,1573,51926,67624,86816,54700000

Focus292,809235,666237,921-53,382184,539221,282243,693240,191235,875241,847239,276235,723

Forte000100,560100,560145,253131,224139,185128,245130,415123,681119,559

Freemont26,89821,36119,600-6,10613,49415,46314,5499,8280000

Frontier70,70791,182115,10777,750192,857143,347120,869109,659111,028109,836107,238116,797

F-Series Lt. Duty647,697600,708626,12071,324697,444685,458675,313650,525672,720681,574676,284695,234

F-Series Super Duty264,355285,885313,835-25,143288,692296,355277,716268,390282,124264,831260,196280,245

Fusion359,198323,357333,775-19,171314,604326,883308,905325,328314,889321,512324,929312,701

GLB000000034,86555,59353,20551,52554,273

GL-Class/GLS50,78751,58051,4166,60058,01651,73348,39417,9630000

GLE00000081,698126,216117,014112,030111,740115,132

GLE Coupe0025,82315,91641,73938,81135,90037,24135,90134,53536,44537,363

GLS000000027,30953,20647,65845,01944,597

Golf059,11089,781-22,87666,90583,48988,30483,50679,70790,09286,85184,572

Golf SportWagen06037,107-6,81230,29546,72650,24046,42846,17347,30847,40546,394

Grand Cherokee261,765287,399290,165-5,585284,580282,636279,660266,584265,403256,547256,003255,133

Grand Wagoneer000000040,37159,46254,71759,75159,458

GT000119119259249250240251250244

Highlander134,619182,948198,32728,006226,333246,276232,643219,685225,828213,863207,203218,803

HR-V00100,42868,796169,224161,714151,241142,510150,949150,228143,423150,052

iA0013,589-1,03812,5510000000

ILX17,19117,76728,027-12,52415,50323,85525,30321,80423,09221,66924,21425,251

Impala185,795139,893129,581-36,16993,41284,40165,09562,1880000

Impreza0002,0082,008106,44282,89674,70580,78878,11979,82188,047

Jetta355,477304,279268,2679,184277,451260,638284,701263,100261,634268,076268,626262,904

Jetta SportWagen50,96120,1980000000000

Journey156,455175,792176,388-60,567115,821139,178130,93988,4460000

Journey Rplt.000000028,357163,369160,654158,424162,704

JX21,79100000000000

Kicks00033,60633,60659,72650,78152,93351,19752,97757,06557,252

LaCrosse50,33051,87034,5487,33141,87930,86335,22034,21237,25433,56330,06338,205

LE000001,3153,2013,0632,5982,7502,7903,051

LEAF26,38732,20119,340-4,99914,34115,92119,23616,77514,26616,28315,86715,523

Legacy40,80054,11665,2569,17474,43092,53492,34691,55695,00687,21287,98885,036

Malibu179,702217,742183,23288,575271,807223,342226,209231,258226,841222,598232,150235,184

Mark LT51600000000000

Matrix11,6724,9130000000000

Maxima48,24758,15655,24010,52565,76564,61858,22259,62056,05152,98162,02958,372

Mazda201,67543,895-5,10638,78941,51040,33441,74640,82845,48442,55741,979

Mazda3097,358138,462-18,767119,695126,747131,222140,286128,626133,349142,120139,296

M-Class/GLE122,557129,796123,7971,718125,515121,05738,31400000

MDX58,42674,22666,185-1,71664,46969,59167,04863,14270,29968,10965,70366,556

Metris003,85925,51729,37627,06426,37525,32924,67724,06924,39424,572

Midsize Sedan0000004,8939,73110,00510,51710,64810,869

Midsize SUV00000029,53466,64776,41081,02287,19087,415

MKC033,19337,3764,58141,95735,31932,99132,44633,36828,96532,81532,612

MKS11,6938,3247,499-4,3853,1140000000

MKT5,9155,4664,930-7394,1914,7344,21800000

MKX26,17732,26030,51413,89644,41035,04235,35133,09826,93827,08426,55628,361

MKZ45,61539,44436,1585,81341,97142,47439,75243,97643,37040,38238,96741,113

Model 30000012,61972,666108,195109,165109,390112,058116,711

Model 3 SUV00000010,92749,15463,38664,97268,29270,889

Model P0000000005,80820,25922,243

Model S20,39534,70848,90092049,82048,72738,77240,60144,94250,28357,57260,804

Model X0050830,79431,30243,28738,85136,63936,90137,36739,20640,706

Murano07,22189,3303,65792,98788,54191,26181,96378,11097,96294,19085,712

Mustang88,02095,231165,138-18,188146,950142,433127,998119,537118,958143,801130,913124,420

Navigator7,3849,40411,290-1,9719,31910,76915,63014,17713,49014,28213,55013,894

Navigator L1,9143,0983,763-7762,9871,021000000

NSX0007907901,7181,4221,2911,2871,7311,4751,356

NV2008,41015,83911,487-97010,51719,92920,37018,50019,99821,93321,36921,788

NV-Series14,81115,09916,9051,25318,15816,99418,15718,04018,54818,85218,97619,227

Odyssey136,449144,760150,654-15,966134,688151,893159,017158,235153,838153,854155,921165,717

Onix000000006,59329,51328,87428,970

Optima133,689138,870111,3874,972116,359119,809125,886123,639123,566139,853132,237131,234

Outback125,554134,596160,74325,783186,526211,004201,828200,287205,586198,039197,387195,359

Outlander Sport67,36269,17850,155-50,15500000000

Pacifica000114,938114,938249,562265,713249,928255,860253,643252,047259,039

Passat NMS137,662117,62887,15613,985101,14192,679106,99498,88193,742100,87198,46094,800

Pathfinder115,523112,755105,0732,556107,629113,624104,974103,64094,865109,978104,223105,330

Patriot107,635129,773147,968839148,8070000000

Pickup103,511102,55665,363-43,07422,28923,34226,16325,62826,97126,13725,74627,143

Pilot125,606134,210132,78911,230144,019148,085163,705181,830173,692172,464181,334180,279

Prisma0000000018,76083,99582,17682,448

ProMaster12,84024,19329,60414,51644,12038,85932,06029,92329,30130,64230,47230,396

Q500015,39915,399147,157156,707154,383151,419150,249145,982154,167

Q600000048,21452,27849,21449,91048,01846,157

QX50000006,00323,28722,03122,59323,63122,65522,218

QX6023,79948,04750,730-63550,09548,77258,77454,54054,19656,95154,36152,402

Ranger0000006,759103,98596,73994,190101,939100,926

RAV4211,530227,786241,4346,481247,915250,969237,182333,182357,686337,173361,320347,099

R-Class9,79210,9879,5974,16513,7629,408000000

RDX57,00760,02660,0444,11864,16258,60158,28064,21255,45956,97959,71255,635

Regal20,07321,91419,1613,13122,29210,797000000

Revero000002,5224,9224,3494,1133,3053,1242,819

Ridgeline19,55710,015034,37434,37438,69734,68732,11833,40732,04930,49729,715

Rio0000081,24984,84579,56580,33981,00577,91476,208

Roadster00000004,0787,3427,1306,8416,970

Rogue20,668165,616162,4099,162171,571168,936161,640162,807159,338150,944157,470159,069

Routan2,50000000000000

RX-Series86,236104,07695,63616,958112,594103,03796,243103,74697,434101,899110,236105,009

S6000000086221,75322,36418,82420,95419,427

Santa Cruz0000001,32530,34133,78932,29734,84932,738

Santa Fe106,012109,796112,22226,698138,920144,246135,002144,315137,448133,909141,789140,905

Savana25,62932,02929,9263,04732,97333,03426,20324,88525,88525,74519,76811,699

Sentra197,562267,966281,03310,318291,351270,722250,971259,241256,110247,461255,200250,004

Sequoia24,03223,18322,829-2,29820,53112,22411,60116,03815,61714,35015,66215,637

Sienna141,171144,199154,478-4,237150,241149,736169,996157,798167,622163,979160,001165,025

Sierra181,156202,332217,063-11,144205,919195,894200,382212,182206,384207,342208,205200,922

Sierra HD62,68767,38677,055-4,17072,88567,74066,11263,44069,75665,82067,77768,349

Silverado425,556446,758457,95528,797486,752456,507466,531486,763474,807477,354478,955477,050

Silverado HD143,289154,978152,10718,652170,759153,547165,202148,298164,738158,021167,204170,700

Small Car00000065,723114,151113,019109,175105,622110,636

Small SUV000000044,775122,195130,541130,480138,679

Sonata205,436235,902212,275-29,054183,221187,466201,133188,205190,699187,248185,874191,266

Sonic133,489133,505104,892-10,86394,02994,519108,63199,727108,797115,390109,515108,786

Sorento129,338120,617140,8934,282145,175133,667146,051131,600119,265136,907133,930133,708

Sprinter15,62912,14214,746-16314,58317,59316,75616,40915,59014,94215,31315,204

SRX88,217100,25190,575-82,5847,9910000000

Suburban59,77458,64668,825-4,38564,44051,80369,81262,30963,51567,87965,29969,439

Tacoma170,078177,044193,24329,112222,355221,827223,862203,693197,869195,210193,744206,627

Tahoe111,773111,057116,6302,711119,341102,67099,55895,958105,176105,806102,663107,405

Taurus93,11573,35574,358-14,98159,37757,31548,33044,77847,54446,87945,59045,855

Telluride00000018,26562,73961,15860,73062,78861,405

Teramont0000040,77446,00941,99844,32142,90841,37944,615

Teramont Coupe000001,02221,80918,35117,61420,05619,14416,404

Terrain112,680118,273122,132-9,782112,350113,856135,186129,749131,388132,593133,204138,882

Tiguan0000039,25455,46548,50451,10548,42046,94348,054

Tiida50,78039,39435,206-11,66423,5420000000

Titan17,26812,36016,75312,54829,30131,55626,73825,72928,43427,39125,55928,199

TL25,7143,7650000000000

TLX036,89953,224-8,67544,54949,63046,41247,83350,50048,61245,80148,232

Town & Country139,185163,721105,358-69,17336,1850000000

Transit042,951146,13015,882162,012168,640171,730166,441167,508164,998160,444164,696

Traverse101,701109,307126,4442,543128,987118,580133,465103,13297,469100,35899,868102,519

Trax47,50061,78995,63213,439109,071131,833111,630106,844110,044110,592107,573111,851

Tribeca2,8092090000000000

Tribeca Rplt.00000021,35625,10422,69822,67624,53323,388

Tsuru54,76750,45051,8302,98454,81449,38458,56355,6190000

Tundra122,585130,836122,03111,492133,523136,003129,016126,837127,297131,153130,685127,337

V60000000003,6169,7949,7159,550

Venza55,33640,02819,092-13,2545,8380000000

Verano53,90846,21241,745-14,95826,7870000000

Versa162,012168,320158,75637,673196,429171,821186,458173,094174,253177,421179,289172,341

Versa Note59,45990,50070,805-12,98057,82566,32067,23975,40467,33272,22770,65468,306

Viper1,50156259155646304000000

Vivaro000000000027,40036,836

Volt23,04722,42317,16815,30632,47422,76618,57619,58918,49816,25821,93318,885

Wrangler223,039235,948244,720-8,160236,560256,589254,397222,369210,507220,528221,458220,212

Wrangler Pickup00000040,64144,43842,84741,13145,98145,061

X3152,356131,976142,6133,825146,438133,344120,43473,52465,65966,40963,63661,466

X4035,30055,02762355,65052,31250,97855,41954,24047,34251,45548,750

X5106,812156,373158,7662,929161,695161,949155,153162,780159,791151,307157,029154,246

X637,94627,10544,498-5,43839,06038,77141,31538,38641,58038,40038,81340,094

X70000001,20334,65437,97935,83537,45936,567

XC60000000032,53038,77336,03639,76537,468

XT300000024,39434,53831,93331,37433,33830,834

XT500065,22165,22175,68690,97487,72791,68386,86583,90692,595

XT700000002,66226,84327,08325,12629,700

Xterra20,30419,78610,741-10,74100000000

XTS35,88620,47020,390-80519,58518,26218,48917,79415,26114,34700

XV Crosstrek00000014,13679,07375,93773,12378,01877,035

Yaris0011,33015,60726,93733,25434,10338,60935,92737,01936,00035,993

Yukon43,21350,39457,3014,38761,68849,74651,79546,35248,97747,12045,64745,924

Yukon XL38,91932,22740,1801,37841,55833,20139,12735,10235,79839,59436,78734,280

ZDX18100000000000

Grand Total16,152,76316,966,71317,452,148429,760-199,887266,35517,948,37618,179,54518,364,47118,930,07319,078,60519,234,81119,314,32919,387,756

496,228496,228

NA Production Walk

Sheet2

Sheet3


0

20

40

60

80

100

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-15

Days

’ Sup

ply

Inve

ntor

y (m

illio

ns)

• Inventory very stable and in good shape through September at a 64-day supply – suggesting industry has not started an overbuild as demand flattens out though there are some trouble spots in certain vehicle types.

• Interplay between inventory levels and incentives will be key indicator.


Inventory is in Check

Chart1

Sep-14Sep-14

Oct-14Oct-14

Nov-14Nov-14

Dec-14Dec-14

Jan-15Jan-15

Feb-15Feb-15

Mar-15Mar-15

Apr-15Apr-15

May-15May-15

Jun-15Jun-15

Jul-15Jul-15

Aug-15Aug-15

Sep-15Sep-15

Oct-15Oct-15

Nov-15Nov-15

Dec-15Dec-15

Jan-16Jan-16

Feb-16Feb-16

Mar-16Mar-16

Apr-16Apr-16

May-16May-16

Jun-16Jun-16

Jul-16Jul-16

Aug-16Aug-16

Sep-15Sep-15

Days' Supply

Inventory

Inventory (millions)

Days’ Supply

64

3331300

76

3588600

71

3698200

61

3558300

82

3641200

69.4840779615

3643800

59

3639400

65

3625500

56

3524400

61

3589200

59

3415100

55

3348800

60

3453600

69

3575500

65

3736900

61

3584400

77.1457703118

3690400

68

3803900

65

3843500

70

3884700

59

3790200

66

3843600

61

3572400

61

3574300

64

3689200

Sheet1

Column1Days' SupplyInventory

Sep-14643,331,300

Oct-14763,588,600

Nov-14713,698,200

Dec-14613,558,300

Jan-15823,641,200

Feb-15693,643,800

Mar-15593,639,400

Apr-15653,625,500

May-15563,524,400

Jun-15613,589,200

Jul-15593,415,100

Aug-15553,348,800

Sep-15603,453,600

Oct-15693,575,500

Nov-15653,736,900

Dec-15613,584,400

Jan-16773,690,400

Feb-16683,803,900

Mar-16653,843,500

Apr-16703,884,700

May-16593,790,200

Jun-16663,843,600

Jul-16613,572,400

Aug-16613,574,300

Sep-15643,689,200



-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Tesl

a

Hyu

ndai

Fuji

Hea

vy

Dai

mle

r

GM

R/N

Toyo

ta

Indu

stry

VW Ford

BMW

FCA

2016 2017

• Hyundai/Kia localizing at Monterrey plant drives growth, Montgomery adds Santa Fe.

• GM ‘16 gains on strong SUV and Pickup volume and new CT6/Bolt; ‘17 falls on lower Car and Large PU/SUV output.

• Ford declines in ’16 on slowing Car demand and Compact SUV competition; ‘17 under pressure but slight growth with new Continental.

• VW for ‘16 under pressure, helped by new Audi capacity; ‘17 adds needed SUVs.

• FCA ‘16 off with Toluca and Sterling Heights downtime; ‘17 falls on drops/sourcing shifts/changeovers.

• Toyota ‘16 up with localized ES-Series and expanded Highlander output; ‘17 declines on Camry changeover, Venza and GCC Sequoia end.

NA Short-Term Production by OEM Group


Chart1

TeslaTesla

HyundaiHyundai

Fuji HeavyFuji Heavy

DaimlerDaimler

GMGM

R/NR/N

ToyotaToyota

IndustryIndustry

VWVW

FordFord

BMWBMW

FCAFCA

2016

2017

0.3909420379

0.2246996645

0.1422719678

0.1638742924

0.1405705724

0.3585931021

0.1057422154

-0.052173406

0.0516074191

-0.015266893

0.0527874993

-0.0379963084

0.03380805

-0.0206554857

0.024

0.018

-0.0281740767

0.3185429419

-0.0214152979

0.0039705098

0.0048132895

-0.0426191068

-0.0618156438

-0.0659092947

Sheet1

201520162017201820192020202120222023

1,344,3931,583,6391,624,8641,677,0931,706,9961,737,9931,774,6411,807,5231,847,844

17.8%2.6%3.2%1.8%1.8%2.1%1.9%2.2%

Prod OEM YoY

DataDataDataData

SALES GROUPSum of 2015Sum of 2016SALES GROUPSum of 2015Sum of 2016SALES GROUPSum of 2013Sum of 2014Sum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 20172016 YoY Growth2017 YoY GrowthSALES GROUPSum of 2013Sum of 2014Sum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023

BMW Group400,904402,4710.0039086664BMW Group400,904402,078BMW Group297,114350,754400,904401,049375,1940.0%-6.9%BMW Group297,114350,754400,904401,049375,194349,324363,882425,009472,271489,073478,413

Daimler Group322,743361,3200.1195285413Daimler Group322,743349,748Daimler Group198,765244,601322,743361,366340,63610.7%-6.1%Daimler Group198,765244,601322,743361,366340,636341,708384,351399,353388,003390,020391,093

Faraday Future000Faraday Future00Faraday Future000000.0%0.0%Faraday Future000004,88816,18123,23124,11924,61525,910

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles2,816,6772,686,755-0.0461259846Fiat Chrysler Automobiles2,816,6772,685,729Fiat Chrysler Automobiles2,493,4332,777,2962,738,3962,584,6912,426,518-5.9%-6.5%Fiat Chrysler Automobiles2,493,4332,777,2962,738,3962,584,6912,426,5182,362,6422,394,2752,424,6162,405,3782,431,5662,436,975

Ford Group3,104,9833,153,3160.0155662688Ford Group3,104,9833,171,260Ford Group3,074,7762,929,1013,104,9833,141,5583,151,0501.2%0.3%Ford Group3,074,7762,929,1013,104,9833,141,5583,151,0503,085,7953,294,2693,418,9223,416,4803,416,8623,495,440

Fuji Heavy225,999269,6590.1931866955Fuji Heavy225,999279,443Fuji Heavy169,163188,921225,999257,372409,98012.2%37.2%Fuji Heavy169,163188,921225,999257,372409,980413,873472,994484,464464,261474,191478,006

Geely Group000Geely Group00Geely Group000000.0%0.0%Geely Group0000086253,81864,35365,41168,86366,185

General Motors Group3,434,1213,624,6150.0554709633General Motors Group3,434,1213,636,094General Motors Group3,296,1323,377,9723,434,1213,628,9543,530,8155.4%-2.8%General Motors Group3,296,1323,377,9723,434,1213,628,9543,530,8153,552,7103,543,9903,608,1083,696,2693,690,7553,682,163

Honda Group1,863,2821,963,3750.0537186534Honda Group1,863,2821,951,388Honda Group1,781,2481,806,8881,863,2821,970,3672,021,6645.4%2.5%Honda Group1,781,2481,806,8881,863,2821,970,3672,021,6642,033,1012,064,7972,043,2022,072,7962,065,0152,095,346

Hyundai Group749,005866,0890.1563193837Hyundai Group749,005867,142Hyundai Group768,534766,632749,005860,4731,009,94613.0%14.8%Hyundai Group768,534766,632749,005860,4731,009,9461,103,5471,161,6151,123,6211,152,3171,152,0071,141,954

Mazda Motors182,357167,591-0.0809730364Mazda Motors182,357175,603Mazda Motors099,033182,357166,470175,941-9.5%5.4%Mazda Motors099,033182,357166,470175,941177,099185,719173,180179,042188,112181,434

Mitsubishi Motors50,1550-1Mitsubishi Motors50,1550Mitsubishi Motors67,36269,17850,155000.0%0.0%Mitsubishi Motors67,36269,17850,15500000000

Renault-Nissan Group1,752,4711,820,7090.0389381622Renault-Nissan Group1,752,4711,820,176Renault-Nissan Group1,472,0001,742,9581,752,4711,837,0121,782,4104.6%-3.1%Renault-Nissan Group1,472,0001,742,9581,752,4711,837,0121,782,4101,775,1631,747,1811,689,6991,708,8621,725,4551,741,068

Tesla Motors49,40887,7520.7760686528Tesla Motors49,40887,465Tesla Motors20,39534,70849,40881,122104,63339.1%22.5%Tesla Motors20,39534,70849,40881,122104,633163,441239,494263,293278,003309,390317,927

Toyota Group2,031,9782,072,7390.0200597644Toyota Group2,031,9782,084,490Toyota Group1,857,7271,985,9322,031,9782,107,3872,055,2673.6%-2.5%Toyota Group1,857,7271,985,9322,031,9782,107,3872,055,2672,044,1882,101,4102,125,1962,095,3842,117,7882,120,196

Volkswagen Group546,346556,5170.0186164079Volkswagen Group546,346573,166Volkswagen Group656,114592,739546,346556,813775,2001.9%28.2%Volkswagen Group656,114592,739546,346556,813775,200898,343884,821868,419888,532872,458873,554

Wanxiang Group000Wanxiang Group00Wanxiang Group00002,5110.0%100.0%Wanxiang Group00002,5114,9424,3725,3416,8816,6096,165

Grand Total17,530,42918,032,9080.0286632461Grand Total17,530,42918,083,782Grand Total16,152,76316,966,71317,452,14817,954,63418,161,7652.8%1.1%Grand Total16,152,76316,966,71317,452,14817,954,63418,161,76518,311,62618,913,16919,140,00719,314,00919,422,77919,531,829

20162017

Tesla39.1%22.5%

Hyundai14.2%16.4%

Fuji Heavy14.1%35.9%

Daimler10.6%-5.2%

GM5.2%-1.5%Presentation #'s Preliminary

R/N5.3%-3.8%Data

Toyota3.4%-2.1%SALES GROUPSum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 20172016 YoY Growth2017 YoY Growth

Industry2.4%1.8%BMW Group400,904402,843386,3760.5%-4.3%

VW-2.8%31.9%Daimler Group322,743360,906343,01010.6%-5.2%

Ford-2.1%0.4%Faraday Future0000.0%0.0%

BMW0.5%-4.3%Fiat Chrysler Automobiles2,738,3962,578,9752,419,507-6.2%-6.6%

FCA-6.2%-6.6%Ford Group3,104,9833,039,8833,052,001-2.1%0.4%

Fuji Heavy225,999262,964409,98014.1%35.9%

Geely Group0000.0%0.0%

General Motors Group3,434,1213,620,9913,566,5415.2%-1.0%

Honda Group1,863,2821,967,6932,014,5795.3%2.3%

Hyundai Group749,005873,2431,044,39214.2%16.4%

Mazda Motors182,357158,484168,257-15.1%5.8%

Mitsubishi Motors50,155000.0%0.0%

Renault-Nissan Group1,752,4711,850,1351,782,4105.3%-3.8%

Tesla Motors49,40881,122104,63339.1%22.5%

Toyota Group2,031,9782,103,0792,060,5183.4%-2.1%

Volkswagen Group546,346531,375779,763-2.8%31.9%

Wanxiang Group002,5220.0%100.0%

Grand Total17,452,14817,948,37618,179,5452.8%1.3%

Data

SALES GROUPSum of 2013Sum of 2014Sum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 20172016 YoY Growth2017 YoY Growth

BMW Group297,114350,754400,904402,843386,3760.5%-4.3%

Daimler Group198,765244,601322,743360,906343,01010.6%-5.2%

Faraday Future000000.0%0.0%

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles2,493,4332,777,2962,738,3962,578,9752,419,507-6.2%-6.6%

Ford Group3,074,7762,929,1013,104,9833,128,2253,147,0570.7%0.6%

Fuji Heavy169,163188,921225,999262,964409,98014.1%35.9%

Geely Group000000.0%0.0%

General Motors Group3,296,1323,377,9723,434,1213,620,9913,516,5415.2%-3.0%

Honda Group1,781,2481,806,8881,863,2821,967,6932,014,5795.3%2.3%

Hyundai Group768,534766,632749,005873,2431,044,39214.2%16.4%

Mazda Motors099,033182,357158,484168,257-15.1%5.8%

Mitsubishi Motors67,36269,17850,155000.0%0.0%

Renault-Nissan Group1,472,0001,742,9581,752,4711,850,1351,782,4105.3%-3.8%

Tesla Motors20,39534,70849,40881,122104,63339.1%22.5%

Toyota Group1,857,7271,985,9322,031,9782,103,0792,060,5183.4%-2.1%

Volkswagen Group656,114592,739546,346559,716779,7632.4%28.2%

Wanxiang Group00002,5220.0%100.0%

Grand Total16,152,76316,966,71317,452,14817,948,37618,179,5452.8%1.3%

Prod OEM YoY

2016

2017

Prod LT Forecast

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Production16,152,76316,966,71317,452,14817,948,37618,200,00018,364,47118,930,07319,078,60519,234,81119,314,32919,387,756

Excess Capacity1,348,5371,290,0871,306,6521,415,6242,006,6002,773,1292,982,5273,308,9953,152,7893,093,2713,019,844

Utilization92.3%92.9%93.0%92.7%90.1%86.9%86.4%85.2%85.9%86.2%86.5%

US + Can Mix

Mexico Mix

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Capacity17,501,30018,256,80018,758,80019,364,00020,206,60021,137,60021,912,60022,387,60022,387,60022,407,60022,407,600Updated 10/20/2016

Production16,152,76316,966,71317,452,14817,948,37618,179,54518,364,47118,930,07319,078,60519,234,81119,314,32919,387,756

Prod LT Forecast

Production

Excess Capacity

Utilization

Design Lead Region Pivot

Row LabelsSum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023

Asia Pacific507442353447305691709586609061319786181248622900262843716291957

North America794913682848957601399726232170440037008533704833270400737087840

South America401554330445702371753360033545354753414734467

Western Europe438843442754474840735519888557204925855279592200259557385973492

Grand Total174521481794837618179545183644711893007319078605192348111931432919387756

Design Lead Country Pivot

RegionWestern Europe


France10042331028402992998841477687586646203684522678165679541

France/USA00000002740036836

Germany277989528790753372652384051842169954253835429261843011834313974

Italy604306367970475085516028761628890488880208878556876696

Sweden0008625428364753646547043466445

Grand Total438843442754474840735519888557204925855279592200259557385973492

Design Lead Locations

DESIGN LEAD COUNTRYRegion201520162017201820192020202120222023201520162017201820192020202120222023

BrazilSouth America40,15543,30445,70237,17533,60033,54535,47534,14734,467Brazil40,15543,30445,70237,17533,60033,54535,47534,14734,467

ChinaAsia Pacific0000035,484139,005156,073157,293China0000035,484139,005156,073157,293

FranceWestern Europe1,004,2331,028,402992,998841,477687,586646,203684,522678,165679,541France1,004,2331,028,402992,998841,477687,586646,203684,522678,165679,541

France/USAWestern Europe000000027,40036,836France/USA000000027,40036,836

GermanyWestern Europe2,779,8952,879,0753,372,6523,840,5184,216,9954,253,8354,292,6184,301,1834,313,974Germany2,779,8952,879,0753,372,6523,840,5184,216,9954,253,8354,292,6184,301,1834,313,974

ItalyWestern Europe604,306367,970475,085516,028761,628890,488880,208878,556876,696Italy604,306367,970475,085516,028761,628890,488880,208878,556876,696

JapanAsia Pacific4,047,4694,189,0244,326,7354,432,2094,665,1924,664,8364,606,8824,665,0234,669,922Japan4,047,4694,189,0244,326,7354,432,2094,665,1924,664,8364,606,8824,665,0234,669,922

KoreaAsia Pacific1,026,9541,155,7061,364,9741,433,8811,466,7861,480,9281,483,1151,463,2751,464,742Korea1,026,9541,155,7061,364,9741,433,8811,466,7861,480,9281,483,1151,463,2751,464,742

SwedenWestern Europe00086254,28364,75364,65470,43466,445Sweden00086254,28364,75364,65470,43466,445

USANorth America7,949,1368,284,8957,601,3997,262,3217,044,0037,008,5337,048,3327,040,0737,087,840USA7,949,1368,284,8957,601,3997,262,3217,044,0037,008,5337,048,3327,040,0737,087,840

Grand Total17,452,14817,948,37618,179,54518,364,47118,930,07319,078,60519,234,81119,314,32919,387,756

201520162017201820192020202120222023

Asia Pacific507442353447305691709586609061319786181248622900262843716291957

North America794913682848957601399726232170440037008533704833270400737087840

South America401554330445702371753360033545354753414734467

Western Europe438843442754474840735519888557204925855279592200259557385973492

RegionAsia Pacific


China000003548413900515607315729315729313%

Japan40474694189024432673544322094665192466483646068824665023466992262245351%

Korea10269541155706136497414338811466786148092814831151463275146474243778836%

Grand Total5074423534473056917095866090613197861812486229002628437162919571217534

Share of Growth

China13%

Japan51%

Korea36%

RegionWestern Europe

Row LabelsSum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023RegionWestern Europe

France10042331028402992998841477687586646203684522705565716377-287856-18%

Germany277989528790753372652384051842169954253835429261843011834313974153407997%Row LabelsSum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023

Italy60430636797047508551602876162889048888020887855687669627239017%France10042331028402992998841477687586646203684522705565716377-287856

Sweden0008625428364753646547043466445664454%Germany2779895287907533726523840518421699542538354292618430118343139741534079

Grand Total4388434427544748407355198885572049258552795922002595573859734921585058Italy604306367970475085516028761628890488880208878556876696272390

Sweden000862542836475364654704346644566445

Grand Total4388434427544748407355198885572049258552795922002595573859734921585058

Share of Growth

France-18%

Germany97%

Italy17%

Sweden4%

Design Lead Locations

Asia Pacific

North America

South America

Western Europe

Stacked Bar Platforms

Share of Growth

AP Share of Growth

GM Production Charts

Share of Growth

WE Share of Growth

Ford Production Charts New

TNGA1656246Sum of 2015NASum of 2023NA

C (Ford)1354805Consolidated Platform FamilyTotalConsolidated Platform FamilyTotal

T1XX11791941K2/T1XX1,233,4931TNGA C/D1,732,689

C-Evo9749552MC (Toyota)1,227,0312C (Ford)1,293,076

T3 (Ford)9500783P/T3XX (Ford)939,9553K2/T1XX1,214,816

MQB7573014C (Ford)682,6194P/T3XX (Ford)1,035,019

Delta7432185P5646,9035CMF B/CD869,843

CD6687776C-Evo570,7886Delta819,368

P56582967CD/D6542,5357MQB681,029

CMF B646903Top 10 Sum 20158WQ505,3078C-Evo672,827

7,293,9049Theta Epsilon503,3489CD/D6670,875Top 10 Sum 2023

Percent of NA Prod42%10130L441,92510P5649,1459,638,687

Accord432,609LF597,11350%Percent of Total Production

2015 NA2015 Global2023 NA2023 GlobalUH424,969WQ526,585

TNGA C/D (Toyota)047,2401,732,6894,836,369PQ35419,458SGP468,865

C (Ford)682,6192,341,6181,293,0762,937,489D3/D4396,916CLAR LG/LK (35up)459,650

K2/T1XX (GM)1,233,4931,237,1831,214,8161,216,994LF393,090CXXX442,599

P/T3XX (Ford)939,955943,5481,035,0191,038,442DS390,363Accord425,367

CMF B/CD (R/N/COMPAS)162,4091,322,349869,8437,073,334WL365,542UM412,552

Delta (GM)328,5951,504,029819,3682,051,050UM354,793UH406,826

MQB (VW)126,8882,736,005681,0298,941,998Epsilon352,558DS376,440

C-Evo (FCA)570,788655,607672,8271,036,680Delta328,595WL367,771

CD/D6 (Ford)542,5351,165,459670,8751,090,436V 1301,954Epsilon304,223

P5 (R/N)646,903852,700649,145770,575GS/GSG296,276RT296,805

Lambda288,8129BXX295,573

9,638,687191816930.5024940708P3281,033GSP276,151

2015 (North America)2015 (Global)2023 (North America)2023 (Global)LY253,230JL265,273

RT250,974AD260,858

047,240JK244,720SkyActiv-B/C217,268

TNGA C/D (Toyota)1,732,6893,103,68021Z225,999375N/X206,627

W164210,633Giorgio203,869

682,6191,658,999SkyActiv-B/C207,276MLB200,324

C (Ford)1,293,0761,644,413LG X203,264DS-HD197,442

Global Gamma200,524MHA197,092

1,233,4933,690LG W197,640Model 3194,570

K2/T1XX (GM)1,214,8162,178JS195,988T6168,157

375N/X193,243V36X164,696

939,9553,593YF183,687RB157,694

P/T3XX (Ford)1,035,0193,423F-Alpha176,946GEM157,293

MD172,228Alpha150,048

162,4091,159,940D2c165,138180L142,974

CMF B/CD (R/N/COMPAS)869,8436,203,491CMF B/CD162,409GMT375124,823

DS-HD156,957Tesla123,753

328,5951,175,434V36X146,130Nis. Mits. Pickup116,797

Delta (GM)819,3681,231,682GSP145,604MRA110,710

180L144,860MD69,794

126,8882,609,117GMT375137,144SPA66,445

MQB (VW)681,0298,260,969MQB126,888MFA66,248

B2E105,272DH61,405

570,78884,819GMT61099,778F-Alpha57,163

C-Evo (FCA)672,827363,853MRA93,505Omega52,357

T 277,425D3/D445,855

542,535622,924T (Ford)73,571VN12742,654

CD/D6 (Ford)670,875419,561P168,599GMT61039,878

Nissan PU65,363GM/Ren-Niss Van36,836

646,903205,797Zeta64,509Van (Sevel)30,396

P5 (R/N)649,145121,430VN12752,847VU29,715

B (Nissan)51,830Nissan PU27,143

Alpha51,420VPA25,474

Tesla49,408NCVII24,572

Y-Body40,255Global Gamma22,305

Sum of 2015GlobalSum of 2023W-Body34,354T1 (MB)15,204

Consolidated Platform FamilyTotalConsolidated Platform FamilyTotalMini33,518Karma8,490

MC (Toyota)2,876,444MQB8,941,998Van (Sevel)29,604Zora7,596

Global Gamma2,808,305CMF B/CD7,073,334Leaf19,340NSX1,356

MQB2,736,005TNGA C/D4,836,369T1 (MB)14,746Leaf1,151

P12,627,035C (Ford)2,937,489NCVII3,859GT244

MD2,468,058AD2,779,602ZC591MC (Toyota)0

C (Ford)2,341,618RB2,183,412GT0W-Body0

PQ351,798,311Delta2,051,050GMT9000P30

130L1,613,994GSP1,781,345T60B (Nissan)0

RB1,565,241GEM1,751,4269BXX0PQ350

Delta1,504,029CLAR LG/LK (35up)1,656,960CLAR LG/LK (35up)0YF0

GSP1,409,678MLB1,646,662SGP0GMT9000

CMF B/CD1,322,349LF1,643,047AD0ZC0

K2/T1XX1,237,183MRA1,374,618Sigma0PQ340

CD/D61,165,459K2/T1XX1,216,994Omega0Mini0

MLB1,165,349B2E1,179,786VU0LG X0

B2E1,073,6499BXX1,095,080TNGA C/D0B2E0

P3987,831CD/D61,090,436Giorgio0Lambda0

LF971,934P/T3XX (Ford)1,038,442PQ34021Z0

P/T3XX (Ford)943,548C-Evo1,036,680VPA0V 10

21Z938,577UH994,391Zora0T (Ford)0

UH877,807SGP946,571MLB0P10

V 1865,821P1934,812NSX0T 20

P5852,700MD928,423Model 30GS/GSG0

SkyActiv-B/C789,057SkyActiv-B/C897,517GEM0130L0

GS/GSG786,562MFA877,944LX(FCA)0W1640

Epsilon785,900WQ862,057Nis. Mits. Pickup0JS0

WQ773,717Epsilon845,665JL0LG W0

YF756,942P5770,575CXXX0D2c0

C-Evo655,607Accord766,481SPA0Y-Body0

MFA627,275GS/GSG635,665DH0Theta Epsilon0

Accord619,074GMT375603,199MFA0LY0

LG W594,439V36X575,957MHA0Zeta0

Theta Epsilon580,495T6504,473GM/Ren-Niss Van0JK0

MRA536,271375N/X501,149Karma0LX(FCA)0

375N/X525,032CXXX490,125RB0Sigma0

Mini510,831SPA489,266Grand Total17,452,148Grand Total19,387,756

GMT375450,789UM412,552

V36X436,825Mini406,645

D3/D4400,470130L406,527

DS390,363Giorgio378,364

WL365,783DS376,440

UM360,770Global Gamma371,982

Van (Sevel)297,304WL367,857

Lambda288,812Van (Sevel)338,637

F-Alpha265,877Nis. Mits. Pickup330,657

LY253,230RT296,805

RT250,974DH281,043

JK244,720JL265,273

W164218,063GM/Ren-Niss Van240,431

LG X212,134T1 (MB)234,160

JS195,988MHA200,767

T1 (MB)190,631DS-HD197,442

D2c165,138Model 3194,570

DS-HD156,957Alpha189,679

GM/Ren-Niss Van154,334F-Alpha170,857

180L144,860180L142,974

Nissan PU130,147P3129,210

T 2113,680Tesla123,753

GMT61099,778NCVII108,014

NCVII99,571Nissan PU86,922

Zeta94,859Omega57,421

Alpha79,38321Z48,560

T (Ford)73,571D3/D445,855

SPA60,599VN12742,654

AD55,199GMT61039,878

VN12752,847MC (Toyota)34,064

B (Nissan)51,830VU29,715

Tesla49,408V 126,312

TNGA C/D47,240VPA25,474

Leaf42,801T 216,630

Y-Body40,255Karma8,490

W-Body34,354Zora7,596

LX(FCA)27,246PQ352,957

CLAR LG/LK (35up)26,705NSX1,356

T67,430Leaf1,151

ZC591GT244

GMT90076Y-Body0

Zora0W1640

DH0Sigma0

VU0Zeta0

MHA0LG W0

PQ340LG X0

CXXX0JK0

VPA0Lambda0

Nis. Mits. Pickup0LY0

Omega0B (Nissan)0

9BXX0W-Body0

Giorgio0YF0

NSX0JS0

GT0ZC0

JL0LX(FCA)0

GEM0PQ340

Karma0T (Ford)0

SGP0GMT9000

Model 30Theta Epsilon0

Sigma0D2c0

Grand Total51,323,719Grand Total66,578,918

Ford Production Charts New

2015 (North America)

2015 (Global)

2023 (North America)

2023 (Global)

FCA Production Charts New

201520162017201820192020202120222023

Car1,054,0081,159,3021,054,1261,007,622993,819941,100995,3701,009,4201,015,094Data

Pickup1,041,3241,097,7151,055,0201,041,5721,029,7471,031,8821,036,1531,044,3831,041,844SEGMENT BODYSTYLESum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023

SUV1,217,1051,233,6001,314,4251,371,4951,375,1091,489,4141,517,1581,486,2041,534,063Car939,2401,024,543929,622899,222876,364837,544894,418906,919918,619

Van/MPV121,684130,374142,970128,364115,638121,370121,163115,54194,676MPV21,90611,29216,51216,82516,09919,60418,84318,32317,962

Utilization %85%86%82%82%82%83%86%85%85%Pickup1,041,3241,097,7151,040,2291,032,7681,029,7471,031,8821,036,1531,044,3831,041,844

Sporty114,768134,759109,72699,883117,455103,556100,952102,50196,475

DataSUV1,217,1051,233,6001,295,9981,359,9021,375,1091,489,4141,517,1581,486,2041,534,063

SEGMENT BODYSTYLESum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023Van99,778119,082124,454110,45499,539101,766102,32097,21876,714

Car939,2401,024,543942,840906,888876,364837,544894,418906,919918,619Grand Total3,434,1213,620,9913,516,5413,519,0543,514,3133,583,7663,669,8443,655,5483,685,677

MPV21,90611,29216,74716,96816,09919,60418,84318,32317,962

Pickup1,041,3241,097,7151,055,0201,041,5721,029,7471,031,8821,036,1531,044,3831,041,84426%26%

Sporty114,768134,759111,286100,735117,455103,556100,952102,50196,4750%0%

SUV1,217,1051,233,6001,314,4251,371,4951,375,1091,489,4141,517,1581,486,2041,534,06330%29%

Van99,778119,082126,224111,39699,539101,766102,32097,21876,7143%3%

Grand Total3,434,1213,620,9913,566,5413,549,0543,514,3133,583,7663,669,8443,655,5483,685,67737%39%

Preliminary #s4%3%

Car942840906888

MPV1674716968

Sum of 2015Sum of 202020152020Pickup10550201041572

Consolidated Platform FamilyTotalConsolidated Platform FamilyTotalGEM035,484Sporty111286100735

K2/T1XX1,233,493K2/T1XX1,212,8279BXX0201,953SUV13144251371495

Theta Epsilon503,348Delta795,416Alpha51,420134,454Van126224111396

Epsilon352,558CXXX432,183Lambda/CXXX288,812432,1833,566,5413,549,054

Delta328,595Epsilon311,289Delta328,595795,416

Lambda288,8129BXX201,953Epsilon352,558311,289

Global Gamma200,524Alpha134,454T/E503,3480

GMT375137,144GMT375116,197K2/T1XX1,233,4931,212,827

GMT61099,778Global Gamma107,936

T 277,425GMT610101,766

Zeta64,509Omega46,223

Alpha51,420T 240,941

Y-Body40,255GEM35,484

W-Body34,354Y-Body19,616

P121,906CMF B/CD19,604

9BXX0Zora7,877

Zora0Theta Epsilon0

CXXX0Lambda0

CMF B/CD0W-Body0

Sigma0GM/Ren-Niss Van0

GEM0Zeta0

GM/Ren-Niss Van0Sigma0

Omega0P10

GMT9000GMT9000


288,812432,183

REGIONCOUNTRYMANUFACTURERPLANT201320142015201620172018201920202021

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupArlington200,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,00020222023

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupBowling Green80,00080,00080,00080,00080,00080,00080,00080,00080,000250,000250,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupFairfax350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,00080,00080,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupFlint Truck 2240,000240,000240,000240,000240,000240,000240,000240,000240,000350,000350,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupFort Wayne Truck315,000315,000315,000315,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000240,000240,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupGM Van000000000350,000350,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupHamtramck160,000160,000160,000160,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,00020,00020,000

North AmericaCanadaGeneral Motors GroupIngersoll Car250,000250,000250,000250,000450,000450,000450,000450,000450,000250,000250,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupLansing Delta Township220,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000450,000450,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupLansing Grand River150,000150,000150,000230,000230,000230,000230,000230,000230,000250,000250,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupLordstown410,000410,000410,000410,000410,000410,000410,000410,000410,000230,000230,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupOrion160,000160,000160,000160,000160,000160,000160,000160,000160,000410,000410,000

North AmericaCanadaGeneral Motors GroupOshawa 1175,000175,000175,000175,00000000160,000160,000

North AmericaCanadaGeneral Motors GroupOshawa 2137,500100,00075,00075,0000000000

North AmericaMexicoGeneral Motors GroupRamos Arizpe320,000320,000320,000320,000320,000320,000320,000320,000320,00000

North AmericaMexicoGeneral Motors GroupSan Luis Potosi (GM)130,000130,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000320,000320,000

North AmericaMexicoGeneral Motors GroupSilao250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000260,000260,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupSpring Hill 2100,000100,000100,000200,000200,000200,000200,000200,000200,000250,000250,000

North AmericaUSAGeneral Motors GroupWentzville184,000184,000220,000220,000220,000220,000220,000220,000220,000200,000200,000

Capacity3,831,5003,874,0004,015,0004,195,0004,270,0004,270,0004,270,0004,270,0004,270,000220,000220,000

Production34122153609699350002935022293498214356416236510014,290,0004,290,000

0.84986674970.86047651970.81967892270.82019414520.81925386420.83469836070.85503536336372253667715

0.84783799530.8549452214

FCA Production Charts New

2015

2020

Toyota Production Charts New

Car

Pickup

SUV

Van/MPV

Utilization %

Honda Productio Charts New

201520162017201820192020202120222023

Car960,121869,976880,439880,837997,503993,9171,026,6191,005,289985,682Data

Pickup939,955948,377959,354959,7881,022,9001,051,5831,040,5951,038,4191,076,405SEGMENT BODYSTYLESum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023

SUV982,311986,698984,273984,7181,040,3571,116,6461,094,4051,130,4981,151,139Car794,983689,246757,956752,590877,716868,031867,564862,119852,843

Van/MPV222,596234,832227,936228,039211,216210,650207,047201,192207,350MPV23,61918,82224,50410,71100000

Utilization %92%94%94%85%86%88%88%88%90%Pickup939,955986,136981,813959,7881,022,9001,051,5831,040,5951,038,4191,076,405

Sporty165,138147,069142,692128,247119,787125,886159,055143,170132,839

DataSUV982,3111,071,7931,021,485984,7181,040,3571,116,6461,094,4051,130,4981,151,139

SEGMENT BODYSTYLESum of 2015Sum of 2016Sum of 2017Sum of 2018Sum of 2019Sum of 2020Sum of 2021Sum of 2022Sum of 2023Van198,977215,159218,607217,328211,216210,650207,047201,192207,350

Car794,983732,144752,250752,590877,716868,031867,564862,119852,843Grand Total3,104,9833,128,2253,147,0573,053,3823,271,9763,372,7963,368,6663,375,3983,420,576

MPV23,61923,67010,70610,71100000

Pickup939,955948,377959,354959,7881,022,9001,051,5831,040,5951,038,4191,076,40524%25%

Sporty165,138137,833128,189128,247119,787125,886159,055143,170132,8391%0%

SUV982,311986,698984,273984,7181,040,3571,116,6461,094,4051,130,4981,151,13931%31%

Van198,977211,162217,230217,328211,216210,650207,047201,192207,3505%4%

Grand Total3,104,9833,039,8833,052,0013,053,3823,271,9763,372,7963,368,6663,375,3983,420,57632%32%

Preliminary #s7%7%

Car732144752250

MPV2367010706

Sum of 2015Sum of 202020152020Pickup948377959354

Consolidated Platform FamilyTotalConsolidated Platform FamilyTotalD2c165,1380Sporty137833128189

P/T3XX (Ford)939,955C (Ford)1,276,313D3/D4396,91647,544SUV986698984273

C (Ford)682,619P/T3XX (Ford)1,014,243CD/D6542,535619,326Van211162217230

CD/D6542,535CD/D6619,326C (Ford)682,6191,276,3133,039,8833,052,001

D3/D4396,916V36X167,508P/T3XX (Ford)939,9551,014,243

D2c165,138T6164,497

V36X146,130D3/D447,544

B2E105,272VN12743,142

T (Ford)73,571D2c39,983

VN12752,847GT240

T60B2E0

GT0T (Ford)0


REGIONCOUNTRYMANUFACTURERPLANT20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

North AmericaUSAFord GroupAvon Lake200,000200,000100,00060,00060,00060,00060,00060,00060,00060,00060,000

North AmericaUSAFord GroupChicago250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000

North AmericaMexicoFord GroupCuautitlan130,000130,000130,000130,000130,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000

North AmericaUSAFord GroupDearborn Truck325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000

North AmericaUSAFord GroupFlat Rock Assembly260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000260,000

North AmericaMexicoFord GroupHermosillo350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000350,000

North AmericaUSAFord GroupKansas City250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000

North AmericaUSAFord GroupKansas City Truck325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000325,000

North AmericaUSAFord GroupKentucky Truck350,000350,000405,000405,000405,000405,000405,000405,000405,00

global automotive trends, outlook & observations · 2015. 2016. saar. moving average. annual. us lv...

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