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2nd FAO/World Bank Expert Group Meeting on Investing in Agriculture and natural resources Management in the Context of Climate Change in
East Asia and the Pacific Region, 14-16 May 2012, Bangkok
Global and regional food security situation and future prospects, and
emerging issues
Hiroyuki Konuma FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional
Representative for Asia and the Pacific
2
3 Source: FAO SOFI, 2010
Food prices are high and volatile
Food prices are high and volatile
(still remains 2 times high from
10 years ago)
Question
Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of growing future population?
5
6
7 Source: FAO SOFI 2010
8
India, 237.7, (44%)
China, 130.4, (24%)
Pakistan, 43.4, (8%)
Bangladesh, 41.7, (8%)
Indonesia, 29.9, (5%)
Philippines, 13.2, (2%)
Others , 49.8, (9%)
91 percent of undernourished in Asia and the Pacific live in just 6 countries
91% of Asia and the Pacific’s undernoulished
population live in just 6 countries
Proportion of undernourished population in Asia-Pacific region remains 16% ,far from MDG target of 10% to be
achieved by 2015)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2009 2010
Proportion
Source: FAO SOFI 2010
10
GDP growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Developing country growth (right-axis)
High-income growth (right-axis)
Developing country GDP (left-axis)
High-income GDP (left-axis)
$2004 billion Percent per annum
Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model.
11
World population
Source: UN, 2011
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
120001
95
0
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
20
55
20
60
20
65
20
70
20
75
20
80
20
85
20
90
20
95
21
00
developed Sub-Saharan Africa
NothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and Caribb
South Asia Eastern Asia
percentage annual growth rate (right scale)
millions
12
Urbanization
Source: UN, 2011
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.01
95
0
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
Rural Urban
billions
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Food consumption (Kcal/person/day)
Source: Alexandratos, 2011
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050
Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa
Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean
South Asia East Asia
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Changes in the composition of diets
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2005-
07
2030 2050
Near East and North
Africa
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005-
07
2030 2050
Latin America and
Caribbean
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005-
07
2030 2050
South Asia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005-
07
2030 2050
East Asia
Cereals Roots & tubers
Meat Dairy
Veg oils Sugar
Others
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005-
07
2030 2050
Industrial countries
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2005-
07
2030 2050
Subsaharan Africa
Source: Alexandratos, 2011
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Global production in 2050
Compared to 2005/07, the world would produce every year
• one more billion tons of cereals (45%)
• 196 more million tons of meats (76%)
• 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%)
• 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%)
• 429 more million tons of fruits (68%)
• 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%)
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Past and projected increases in global production
56
317
170
24
77
60
0 100 200 300 400
developed countries
developing countries
world
percent
2005/07-
2050 (projected)
1961-2005/07 (observed)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
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Sources of production growth
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
world developing developed
(percent)
Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050
Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050
Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050
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Is there enough land?
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Developed countries
sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America Near East / North Africa
South Asia East Asia
Arable land in use, 2005/07
Additional land projected to be in use, 2050
million ha
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
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Increasing water use for agriculture, which accounts 70% of total water
use
10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition, 28 - 30 March 2012, Bangkok Source: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP 2011
Water is a Key Requirement for Food
Production
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Area equipped for irrigation
(million ha)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961 2005/07
-2007 -2050
annual growth (% p.a.)
World 142 302 322 1.8 0.1
Developed 38 68 69 1.5 0
Developing 103 235 253 1.9 0.2
Sub-Saharan 3 6 7 1.9 0.5
Latin America 8 20 23 2.1 0.3
Near East/North
Africa 15 31 34 1.9 0.2
South Asia 37 90 93 2.1 0.1
East Asia 40 88 96 1.6 0.2
million ha
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Is there enough yield potential?
• Yield growth: avg 0.8% per year to 2050 compared to 1.7% in the past decades
• Yield potentials
- bridgeable yield gaps
- room for intensification
- technology could increase potentials
- R&D most needed for food-security sensitive crops, eg millet, sorghum, R&T, pulses, plantains
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Yields need to increase
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1961/63 2005/07 2050
cereals (tons/ha) soybeans (tons/ha)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1961/63 - 2005/07 2005/07 - 2050
cereals (growth % per year)
soybeans (growth % per year)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Uncertainties ( uncertain factors influencing future food security)
• Volatile crude oil prices
• Impact of climate changes
• Bio-fuel development
• etc……. 24
Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999
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“worse case” 2080 scenario:
• less harvested area, up to -39% (World) and -29% (developing countries)
• up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa
Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011)
Source: IPCC (2007)
Uncertainty: climate change
The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America
Number of Disasters
Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.
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Bio-fuels and other utilizations
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030
mil
lio
n t
on
s
other uses bio-fuel
cereals
excl ricesugar oilcrops starchy roots
Source: Alexandratos, 2011
World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected
to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018;
increasing competition of land and water use with food
production, in addition to competition of use of food
grains between bio-ethanol and food/feed
Conclusion • Resources may be sufficient for 9.2 billion people,
but – huge investment agricultural research and
infrastructure is required to increase productivity – and access to food by the poor remains an issue
which requires targeted approach;
• Yields increases may be attained, but natural resources management needs to be improved substantially, to counteract overuse, degradation and competition among different uses (land, water)
• Crude oil price, bio-fuel development and climate changes are major sources of uncertainty
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Conclusion (cont..) If this is a credible outlook, policies need to: • foster agricultural productivity in sustainable manner in order to
ease the balance between demand and supply
• Improve natural resource management substantially, especially for land and water.
• harmonize policy between food security and bio-energy development.
• improve and disseminate technologies that reduce carbon emissions and the environmental impact of agriculture
• Promote agricultural adaptation to climate changes and mitigate risks
• improve safety nets and risk management with a special focus to vulnerable population, in order to mitigate the variability of quantities and prices
• promote Blue Economy towards sustainable management of oceans and coasts, protection of marine ecosystems, and coastal livelihood developmet
• improve the functioning of markets and price transmission, in order to reduce price volatility and ensure that scarcity signals are orienting producers and consumers
FAO’s Regional Priority Framework for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2019
A. Strengthening food and nutritional security.
B. Fostering agricultural production and rural development
C. Enhancing equitable, productive and sustainable natural resource management and utilization.
D. Improving capacity to respond to food and agricultural threats and emergencies
E. Coping with the impact of climate change on agriculture and food and nutritional security.
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• International policy coordination
• Investing in agriculture and natural resource management
• Joint effort , partnership and working together
Thank you 33