global alliance powerfuelsstefan siegemund, johannesburg, december 9th 2019 global alliance...

ELECTRONS AND MOLECULES: POWERFUELS AS A MISSING LINK FOR THE

ENERGY TRANSITION

Stefan Siegemund, Johannesburg, December 9th 2019

Global Alliance Powerfuels

2 POWERFUELS AS A MISSING LINK FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION

STEFAN SIEGEMUND, DECEMBER 9TH 2019

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Powerfuels

are synthetic gaseous or

liquid fuels based on (green)

electricity

deliver energy or basic

materials feedstock for

many use cases

are an renewable alternative

to fossil resources to avoid

CO2 emissions

WHAT ARE POWERFUELS?



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PARIS AGREEMENT OF 196 NATIONSLIMIT GLOBAL WARMING BELOW 2°C

Source: Climate Action Tracker



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DENA STUDY INTEGRATED ENERGYFIVE SCENARIOS MODELLED

Reference (RF) Electrification (EL) 80 % 95 %

Technology Mix (TM) 80 % 95 %

Ambitious projection of past

and current trends in politics

an technology

no binding climate goals(but CO2 price in all sectors)

Quick and extensive electrifi-

cation of most energy uses in

buildings, industry and mobility

Climate paths with two ambition levels (80 and 95 per cent)

8

31

45

60

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EU

R/tC

O2

CO2-Preis RF Historie

Broad variation of energy

carriers, infrastructures and

applications in all sectors

Climate Targets



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94

184 192 184 189

385

318

392

325

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2015 RF EL80 TM80 RF EL80 TM80 EL95 TM95

Historie 2030 2050

GW

hydropower biomass photovoltaics onshore wind offshore wind

Installed capacity of renewable energy

In each target scenario, more

than 300 GW of RES capacity

will be installed in 2050.

EL scenarios nearly 400 GW.

The largest share is accounted

for by onshore wind energy (in

all scenarios at least 170 GW)

and photovoltaics (at least 114

GW).

History 2030 2050

THE 3 PILLARS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION ENERGY EFFICIENCY & REN. ELECTRICITY & POWERFUELS



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ENERGY DEMANDDECREASING IN ALL SCENARIOS

Final energy consumption all sectors Sektoren

Industry – 26-33%

Building – 47-64%

Transport – 43-52%



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Powerfuels demand in sectors – 95 % scenario

POWERFUELS IN TRANSPORT: ELEMENT IN 2030; A MUST FROM 2040

27 27 84 53170

262

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

EL95 TM95 EL95 TM95 EL95 TM95

TW

h/a

Achsentitel

Power Fuels Bedarf 2030 – 2050

Verkehr Industrie Gebäude Energie

2030 2040 2050

In den 95%-Szenarien liegt der

Anteil von PTX am

Endenergieverbrauch im Verkehr

2050 bei 50 bis 65 Prozent.

Wenn H2-Bedarf steigt, sollte dieser

aus erneuerbaren Quellen gedeckt

werden, um einen Beitrag zur THG-

Minderung zu leisten.

Spätestens ab 2040 müssten aber

auch alle CH4-Anwendungen und

flüssigen Kraftstoffe defossilisiert

werden.



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0 4 5 047 46

0

117 118 128 143

0

155

294

533

908

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

RF

EL8

0

TM8

0 RF

EL8

0

TM8

0 RF

EL8

0

TM8

0

EL9

5

TM9

5 RF

EL8

0

TM8

0

EL9

5

TM9

5

2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h/a

Deutschland EU-Ausland Nicht-EU-Ausland

Growing demand for renewable synthetic energy carriers

A successful energy transition

requires not only „energy

efficiency“ and „renewable

power“ but also „power fuels“

as a third pillar.

In all target scenarios, there

will be a significant need for

climate-neutral synthetic fuels

(power fuels) from 2030 onwards

Power Fuels are also produced

in Germany, but mostly

imported from European and

non-European countries.

2020 2030 2040 2050

THE 3 PILLARS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION EFFICIENCY & REN. POWER & POWERFUELS

Germany EU Countries Non EU Countries



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H2-COSTS PERSPECTIVE FROM RENEWABLES

Source: IEA The future of hydrogen

(2019)

Long term estimation of H2-costs from hybrid solar-PV- and Onshore-wind



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CRITERIA FOR POWERFUELS PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

Renewable Costs are the key factor for competitive powerfuelproduction

However, there are more decisive factors

Investment security, political stability

Technological know-how

Existing transport infrastructure (pipeline, tanker shipping)

…

Historical energy trade connections (pipelines, ships, etc.) will continue to play a crucial role



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POWERFUELS - A BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY

• Can locally produce renewable energy carriers and decrease import dependency

Fossil fuel importers

• Develop a future-proof business model beyond exporting fossil fuels

Oil & gas exporters

• Can become powerfuels exporters and benefit from global market access

Countries with abundant renewable resources

• Can supply technologies and business services facilitating powerfuels production

Technology providers



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POWERFUELSCHALLENGES

Source: Global Alliance Powerfuels - Guidelines for Market Developmenthttps://www.dena.de/en/newsroom/meldungen/2019/global-alliance-powerfuels-presents-

guidelines-for-market-development/

www.powerfuels.org

https://www.dena.de/en/newsroom/meldungen/2019/global-alliance-powerfuels-presents-guidelines-for-market-development/



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GLOBAL ALLIANCE POWERFUELSMEMBERS

Initiated by dena in September

2018 together with renowned

corporate partners.

Partners Network is a

collaboration amongst global

initiatives, think tanks,

associations and research

institutions to further enhance

the discussion and development

of Powerfuels globally.



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GLOBAL ALLIANCE POWERFUELSDEVELOPING GLOBAL DEMAND MARKETS

Start with focus on Europe as a pilot demand market (high willingness to pay)

Connect to supply regions and other international stakeholders

Expand international focus step by step and include other demand markets



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GLOBAL ALLIANCE POWERFUELSOUR GOALS

Raise awareness and acceptance of Powerfuels as missing link to reach global climate targets

Support further enhancement of regulatory frameworks with a first focus on Europe as demand region

Stimulate project development to globally enable production capacities on industrial scale, thus

increasing cost competitiveness with fossil fuels

1

2

3



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Global GHG-emission reduction needs energy efficiency, renewable electricity and

powerfuels

Energy efficiency and powerfuels are not a contradiction. They complement each

other.

Powerfuels offer a business opportunity in a growing market, and create benefication

and employment

To bring down costs of powerfuels, we have to create stable demand markets today to

scale up production.

Market development of powerfuels can start in regions like the EU, but should quickly

become a global issue.

SUMMARY

THANK YOU FOR

YOUR ATTENTION.Stefan Siegemund

[email protected]

www.powerfuels.org

www.dena.de

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http://www.powerfuels.org/



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GLOBAL ALLIANCE POWERFUELSPARTNERS



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POTENTIAL SUPPLIER COUNTRIES

Potential green hydrogen producers

Source: Own depiction based on LUT modelling

Analysis focused on the

countries with the cheapest

green hydrogen resources

and the countries which have

a particularly large

potential for relatively low-

cost green hydrogen

production.

Restrictions of results: Very

simplified approach! More

detailed consideration of the

country-specific context

needed.



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POWERFUELSOPPORTUNITIES



www.powerfuels.org




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WORKING STREAMSALL STREAMS ACTIVE IN 1ST PROJECT YEAR

Several regional workshops and

individual pilot projects planned

in Q3 and Q4 2019.

Details to be announced soon at

www.powerfuels.org

Project Development Track

Conference and paper published

during EUSEW (06/2019).

Deep dive paper on powerfuels

in aviation to be published

during ICAO Assembly (10/2019)

Starting the global discussion

on powerfuels with the paper

“Powerfuels: A missing link to a

successful global energy

transition” (published 04/2019)

Politics & Regulatory Frameworks

Strategy,Networking & Communication1 2 3


GLOBAL ALLIANCE POWERFUELS

WORKSHOP: THE POTENTIAL FOR POWERFUELS. DECEMBER 9TH 2019AFRICAN ENERGY LEADERSHIP CENTRE AT WITS BUSINESS SCHOOLJOHANNESBURG SOUTH AFRICA

www.powerfuels.org

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POWERFUELSSTART MARKET DEVELOPMENT – BUT HOW?

Factors influencing the choice of instruments to support powerfuels



www.powerfuels.org





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POWERFUELSSECTORAL FRAMEWORK FOR REGULATION

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Powerfuels are climate-friendly solutions to

applications with no viable alternatives

Powerfuels could reduce the cost of energy transition by

utilizing existing infrastructures and providing long-term storage

Powerfuels could accelerate the de-fossilization of existing

end-use equipment as green drop-in alternative to fossil fuels

Powerfuels allow local potentials of renewable energy production

to be traded, stored and transported on a global market

FOUR REASONS FOR POWERFUELS

1234



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HISTORISCHER WASSERSTOFFBEDARF

Source: IEA The future of hydrogen

(2019)



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TOP-4 REASONS FOR POWERFUELS AS A MISSING LINK

Powerfuels are climate-friendly solutions to applications with no viable alternatives

Powerfuels could reduce the cost of energy transition by utilising existing infrastructures and provide long-term storage

Powerfuels could utilise the worldwide renewable electricity production potential as powerfuels can be transported and traded globally

Powerfuels could accelerate the de-fossilization of existing consumer end-use equipment since they are green drop-in alternatives to fossil fuels.



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Re-adjusted energy

efficiency strategy with

systemic approach needed.

Push RES power generation,

define clear RES corridors,

coordinate w/ grid expansion.

Establish a global market,

design frameworks open to

a range of technologies.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

POWERFUELSDIRECT RENEWABLE

ENERGIES

POWERFUELSENERGY TRANSITION´S MISSING LINK

Source: dena study integrated energy transitonhttps://www.dena.de/en/integrated-energy-transition/

https://www.dena.de/en/newsroom/meldungen/dena-study-

integrated-energy-transition-germany-needs-a-clear-2050-

climate-target/

https://www.dena.de/en/integrated-energy-transition/

https://www.dena.de/en/newsroom/meldungen/dena-study-integrated-energy-transition-germany-needs-a-clear-2050-climate-target/



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ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES FOR TRANSPORT

| E-fuels Development – Qualitative Assessment of Political

Instruments Focus Road TransportTarget

achievement:

e-fuels

development

Administrative

effort

Consumer

Acceptance

Effect on

international

competitiveness/

Industrial

leadership

Target

achievement:

GHG emission

reduction

Cost efficiency** Cost for

consumer**

E-fuels quota +++ - o + + - -

CO2-taxation on

fuels*+ + + o + + -

CO2 based vehicle

tax*o o + o + + o

Reduced

Levy/apportionment

for electricity input of

the e-fuels-plants

++ o + + + - -

Guarantees for

foreign investments in

e-fuels+ o o + o + o

Co-funding of large

scale pilot projects++ + o + o - -

Support of

(international)

exchange and

cooperation

+ + + + o + +

*effect highly depends on the CO2 price and specific design **highly depends on the specific design of each instrument and

additional market and political framework



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INSTRUMENTS TO FOSTER POWERFUELSCertainty to

increase

Powerfuels

share

Planning

security

increase

production

capacities

Incentive for

industry to

invest

target

achievement

GHG-reduction

Administrative

complexity

Impact on

whole vehicle

fleet

costs for

consumer**

Consumer

acceptance

THG-Quote /RED II

P-fuels quota+ - + + - ++ - O

CO2-abh.

Energiesteuer*o - o + + ++ - o

Powerfuels

Auschreibungen++ ++ ++ ++ o ++ - o

Reduzierung EEG-

Umlage/Abgaben

für Produktion

o - - o - - + o - o

EEG für Powerfuels

(Einspeiserarife)++ ++ ++ ++ - ++ - - o

Anrechnung EE-

Kraftstoffe auf

Flottengrenzwerte

o - o/+ o - o/- + +

Investitionsförderun

gen für EE-Anlagen- - -/o - + o -/o o

THG-Komponente

Maut o - -/o + + ++ O +

*effect highly depends on the CO2 price and specific design **highly depends on the specific design of each instrument and additional market and political framework

© D

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Even in a BEV dominated scenario, final energy demand

of all transport modes in the EU will be met with more than

70% e-fuels in 2050, primarily in aviation, shipping and

freight transport.

Transportation demand is key driver of increased energy

consumption. Truck freight, ship freight, and passenger

aviation are expected to increase and drive additional fuel

demand.

Estimated demand of renewable electricity for the entire

transport sector in 2050 is ten times bigger than the

current annual renewable electricity generation in the EU.

Over 80% of this future demand is caused by the

production of e-fuels.

LBST/DENA E-FUELS STUDY FOR VDA



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ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000019

95

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Fina

l en

ergy

use

(PJ/

yr)

H2

Electricity (train)

Electricity (0.4 kV)

Methane

Liquid fuels (renewable)

Liquid fuels (fossil)

FuturePast

LBST

, 201

7-04

-27

BAU-moderate ∙ PTL / HIGH / -80%GHG

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Fina

l en

ergy

use

(PJ/

yr)

H2

Electricity (train)


Methane



FuturePast

LBST

, 201

7-04

-27

BAU-ambition ∙ PTL / LOW / -95%GHG

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Fina

l en

ergy

use

(PJ/

yr)

H2

Electricity (train)


Methane



FuturePastLB

ST, 2

017-

04-2

7

Progressed-mix ∙ PTG / LOW / -95%GHG

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Fina

l en

ergy

use

(PJ/

yr)

H2

Electricity (train)


Methane



FuturePast

LBST

, 201

7-04

-27

More-electric ∙ eDrives / LOW / -95%GHG

~11,000 PJ

liquid fuels

~5300 PJ

liquid fuels

Source: dena/LBST E-Fuels Studie 2017



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Die kumulierten

Investitionskosten bis 2050

sind im eDrive Szenario

15 bis 30% geringer

E-Fuels Importe aus sehr

guten Standorten außerhalb

der EU können die Kosten

deutlich senken (weißer Pfeil).

INVESTMENT COSTS UNTIL 2050

| EU DOMESTIC ENERGY (SENSITIVITY: PTCH4 & PTL IMPORTS)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

PTL+HIGH PTL+LOW PTG+LOW eDrives+LOW

billion €

115000-420000 BEV stations

14000-73000 H2 stations

15000-100000 CH4 stations

470-910 GW PtX plants

2000-3600 GW RES power plants

LBS

T, 2

017

-08-

10

HIGH demand-80%GHG_2050 vs. 1990

LOW transport demand -95%GHG_2050 vs.1990

1.0 - 1.5 %GDP‘16 p.a. using domestic energy

6000

43203990 3940

EU domestic

energy supply

Full import of

PtCH4 & PtL

7460

52506150

10500

Source: dena/LBST E-Fuels Studie 2017



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LOST DECADE OF GHG-EMISSION REDUCTION

-26%

-36%

-18%

1%

-12%

44%

-42%

Energy

Industrial Processes and Product Use

Agriculture

Transport

Passenger Cars

Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses

Comparison of GHG emissionsin 2017 and 1990 (Germany)

„Klimaschutzplan 2050“ 2030 target

Quelle: UBA (2018)



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REASON FOR CURRENT DEVELOPMENT

Kraftstoffpreise & Fahrzeugpreise

Realeinkommen

Besteuerung und Abgaben

GüterstruktureffektEffizienzgewinne Logistik

Stadt- und Regionalplanung

Infrastrukturausbau



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Advancing

academic

discussion

Connecting

researchers

THE ALLIANCE – SCOPE

Agenda setting

Strategies and

roadmaps

Recommendations

to policy makers

Financing & business

models

Market standards

Matching partners

(projects, value chain)

Industrial scale-up

Policy & Regulation

Industry & Market

Research & Development

Sustainability

Contribution to energy

transition & SDGs

Environmental &

climate impact

Economic

development

Awareness &

AcceptanceCosts Scale

Potential &

Efficiency

Emissions &

Impact

©shutt

ers

tock/T

anasan

Sungkaew

©shutt

ers

tock/M

indscape

stu

dio



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POLITISCHE ZIELSETZUNGEN & MARKTREALITÄTEN

Investitionskosten

Wartung

Kraftstoff & Maut

Wiederverkaufswert

Langfristperspektive

- Regulation&Technologie

TCO-(Differenz)

Infrastruktur- und

Fahrzeugverfügbarkeit

Investitions- und

Planungssicherheit

Was sind die Faktoren an denen sich

der Straßengüterverkehrsmarkt

orientiert?

Welche Faktoren sind für die Politik

entscheidend sind?

Quelle: dena: eigene Darstellung



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WO STEHEN DIE ALTERNATIVEN?

Fuel Cell

CNG / LNG

Overhead Hybrid

BEV / Hybrid

Lkw

Verfügbarkeit

Lkw

Technologie-

reife

Infrastruktur-

bedarf für

erste Flotten

Eignung

Schwerlast-

verkehr

Langstrecke -

aktuell

Eignung

Schwerlast-

verkehr

Langstrecke –

2025/2030

Eignung

Regional-

verkehr –

aktuell

TCO-

Differenz zu

Diesel-Lkw

++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ o

-- - + -- ? o --

- o o -- ? + -

- o -- -- ? o -


© D

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nerg

ie-A

gentu

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THG-ZIELERREICHUNG UND ENERGIEMARKT

Fuel Cell

CNG / LNG

Overhead Hybrid

BEV / Hybrid

Im politischen

Fokus

Potenzial zur

kurzfristigen

Erhöhung des

Anteils

Erneuerbarer

Potenzial zur

langristigen

Erhöhung des

Anteils

Erneuerbarer

Energie-

effizienz –

Energieeinspa

rpotenzial

Einfluss auf

andere

Infrastrukturen

– kurzfristig

Einfluss auf

andere

Infrastrukturen

– langfristig

o o o o ++ ?

++ - o + ++ ?

++ + + ++ - ?

+ + + ++ - ?


© D

euts

che E

nerg

ie-A

gentu

r (d

ena)

global alliance powerfuelsstefan siegemund, johannesburg, december 9th 2019 global alliance...

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