global airline capacity – winter 2013/14 boeing commercial
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Global Airline Capacity – Winter 2013/14 Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Network, Fleet and Schedule
Strategic Planning
Module 19 : 14 March 2014
Istanbul Technical University
Air Transportation Management
M.Sc. Program
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
World Regional Definitions
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Market factors suggest continued passenger demand resilience – Global indicators support economic forecast for accelerating growth heading into 2014 – Near-term oil price outlooks moderating due to rising U.S. shale oil production, potential Iran deal – Load factors at all time highs (global passenger traffic up 5% YTD on 4% capacity growth)
Winter 2013/4 capacity growth continues above average trend that started summer 2013 – Overall December capacity up 7.6% driven primarily by 5.6% frequency growth – Single aisle continues to lead market up 8.7% – 6.6% twin aisle capacity growth more than double last winter’s growth – Most major flows seeing growth; MidEast (Gulf 3) growth to SE Asia surging – Recent airline schedule changes indicate fairly stable airline outlook / forward bookings
Regional, network and fleet trending – Top 25 airline capacity up 5%, key drivers: Gulf 3, Turkish, Chinese airlines, U.S. majors return to growth – LCC capacity growing at almost twice the rate of overall market, led by double-digit growth across Asia – Airlines continue to shift capacity to in-production airplane models (+10%) from out-of-production (-5%)
Global Capacity Report– Summary December 2013 vs. December 2012
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Global capacity trends December 2009-2013
130
135
140
145
150
155
Airplane size1,730
1,740
1,750
1,760
1,770
1,780
1,790
1,800
1,810
1,820
1,830
Avg Stage Length1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
Monthly Frequencies200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
Monthly Seats
(kms) (thousands) (millions)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2013 capacity +7.6% over 2012 driven by frequencies, seat size growth
(avg seats/flight)
Source: Innovata, November 2013 database, commercial jets >=30 seats
+5.6%
+1.7%
+0.2%
+7.4%
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
World passenger capacity growth by aisle
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
YoY ASK growth
Capacity growth continues above long-term average through winter 2013
Single Aisle
Twin Aisle
Source: Innovata
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
World passenger capacity growth by domiciled region
Global single aisle capacity up 8.7%, twin aisle up 6.6%
Source: Innovata, November 2013 database, commercial jets >=30 seats
YoY ASK growth (December 2013 vs. December 2012)
14.6%
9.7% 9.7%
3.6%
7.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
N.America Europe Asia-Pac LatAm Others
Single Aisle Twin Aisle
4.0%5.1% 4.6%
16.0%
6.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
N.America Europe Asia-Pac MidEast Others
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Global capacity growth by flow Top 20 flows, ranked by YoY growth volumes
6%11%8%7%
6%
7%
17%
4%
36%
14%7% 10%
9%
7% 8% 7% 6%1%
0% -1%-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Intra
-Chi
na
Intra
-N.A
mer
Intra
-Eur
ope
Mid
East
-SE
Asia
Euro
pe-N
.Am
er
Intra
-SE
Asia
Chin
a-SE
Asi
a
Euro
pe-M
idEa
st
Intra
S.A
mer
C.Am
er-N
.Am
er
NE A
sia
- SE
Asia
Intra
-CIS
Afric
a-Eu
rope
Intra
-NE
Asia
Oce
ania
- SE
Asi
a
Mid
East
-SW
Asi
a
Intra
-Oce
ania
N.Am
er-N
E As
ia
Euro
pe-S
.Am
er
Euro
pe-S
E As
ia
YoY Change in ASKs, millions (change December 2013 v. 2012)
High Gulf 3 growth to SE Asia – Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Saigon Source: Innovata, November 2013 database, commercial jets >=30 seats
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Global scheduled passenger capacity
4%
6%
8%
10%
Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14
09/13 sched snapshot 10/13 sched snapshot 11/13 sched snapshot
8 Source: Diio/Innovata, Boeing analysis
Airlines trimming winter capacity growth, still above average
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Top 25 airlines ranked by capacity December 2013 v. December 2012
2%2%4%19%19%19%10%
-5%0%-1%
10% 1%
3%3%
5%
12%
4%2%
4%
0% 2% 1% 33% 21%
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Am
eric
an (+
US)
Uni
ted
Del
ta
Emira
tes
AF-
KLM
Lufth
ansa
BA
-Iber
ia
Sout
hwes
t
Chi
na S
outh
ern
Qan
tas-
Jets
tar
Cat
hay-
Dra
gon
Sing
apor
e-Sc
oot
LATA
M
Air
Chi
na
Chi
na E
aste
rn
Turk
ish
Qat
ar
Air
Can
ada
AN
A
Thai
Kor
ean
JAL
Rya
nair
Etih
ad
Aer
oflo
t
2013 chgDec. 2012 ASKs
Top 25 airline capacity up 5%, US majors returning to growth Source: Innovata, November 2013 database, commercial jets >=30 seats
-1%
Weekly ASKs, millions (December 2013 v. 2012)
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Source: Innovata, November 2013 database, commercial jets >=30 seats
LCCs All airlines
5% 4%
7% 8%
22%
6%
18%11%
3% 1%
11%
17%14%
21%
10%19%
8%
3%15%
88%
N. America
Latin America Africa
Oceania
Europe
C.I.S.
NE Asia
SE Asia South Asia
MidEast
China
Capacity (ASK) growth by airline domicile December 2013 v. December 2012
LCC capacity growing at almost twice the rate of total capacity growth
29%
32%
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
World passenger capacity growth by airplane type
Airlines continue to shift capacity to in-production models Source: Innovata, November 2013 database, commercial jets >=30 seats
Monthly seats, millions (December 2013/12)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
A320 B737NG B737C E-Jet B757 MD-80
2013 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
B777 A330 B767 B747 A340 A380 B787 A300
+11%
+12%
-12% +15%
+1%
+13%
+9%
-7% -10%
+19%
-3%
-9%
Single Aisle Twin Aisle
-7% +85%
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Top 25 global airports Year over year seat growth
5%
5%6%6%5%8%9%9%
8%7%
7%14%
11%14%16%
12%
6%2% 3% 2% 3%
2%1%
-1%-2%
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Dub
ai (D
XB)
Kua
la L
umpu
r (K
UL)
Ban
gkok
(BK
K)
Jaka
rta
(CG
K)
Shan
ghai
(PVG
)
Toky
o (H
ND
)
Los
Ang
eles
(LA
X)
Hon
g K
ong
(HK
G)
Ista
nbul
(IST
)
Del
hi (D
EL)
Cha
rlotte
(CLT
)
Sing
apor
e (S
IN)
Gua
ngzh
ou (C
AN
)
Fran
kfur
t (FR
A)
Chi
cago
(OR
D)
San
Fran
cisc
o (S
FO)
Am
ster
dam
(AM
S)
Bei
jing
(PEK
)
Lond
on (L
HR
)
Atla
nta
(ATL
)
New
Yor
k (J
FK)
Dal
las/
Fort
Wor
th (D
FW)
Seou
l (IC
N)
Den
ver (
DEN
)
Paris
(CD
G)
YoY Change in departing seats (% chg) July 2013 v. 2012
Top 25 airports averaging 6% seat growth led by Asia, Dubai, Istanbul Source: Innovata, November 2013 database, commercial jets >=30 seats
Asia
MidEast
Europe N.Amer
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