global advisor predictions · 2020-01-16 · © ipsos | global advisor predictions | january 2020©...

© Ipsos | Global Advisor Predictions | January 2020 | Public

Global Advisor Predictions 2020

2

Likely Unlikely

World Affairs

15%

30%

32%

35%

36%

77%

66%

51%

47%

44%

39%

14%

Average global temperatures will increase

Donald Trump will be re-elected as President of the United States

Major stock markets around the world will crash

A major terrorist attack will be carried out in [X]

A major natural disaster that will impact people in my town/city

Aliens will visit the Earth

Base: 22,512 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium,

Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, Great Britain,

Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru,

Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South

Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.



3

For each of the following, please tell me

how likely or unlikely you think they are to

happen…. ?

Likely

54%64%

67%70%

71%72%72%

75%75%76%76%

76%76%77%78%78%

78%79%79%79%79%

79%80%80%

81%81%81%82%

83%85%85%86%

89%77%

25%21%

18%19%

17%16%15%

13%15%

17%14%14%

17%13%12%

17%15%15%

12%14%

17%12%12%

15%11%11%

13%10%

14%8%

10%11%

6%14%

Saudi Arabia

United States

Russia

Australia

Brazil

Germany

Romania

Argentina

Canada

Belgium

Italy

Mexico

Sweden

Peru

France

India

Poland

China

Japan

Netherlands

Philippines

Spain

Israel

South Africa

Colombia

Great Britain

Hungary

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Chile

South Korea

Singapore

Turkey

All Markets

Unlikely

Average global temperatures will increase








4



happen…. ?

Likely

24%27%28%29%29%30%30%30%31%31%31%31%32%33%34%34%

36%36%37%37%38%38%39%40%40%

41%41%42%

45%46%

49%56%

59%36%

47%39%

45%39%

53%51%

41%37%

35%40%

56%45%

40%32%

39%38%

41%36%

40%45%

29%40%

42%34%

39%38%

33%36%

40%38%

35%19%

22%39%

Hungary

Italy

Peru

Romania

South Korea

China

Mexico

Spain

Argentina

Canada

Philippines

United States

Israel

Germany

Netherlands

France

Brazil

Great Britain

Belgium

South Africa

Japan

Saudi Arabia

Sweden

Australia

Chile

Turkey

Colombia

Russia

Hong Kong

India

Singapore

Poland

Malaysia

All Markets

Unlikely

Major stock markets around the world will crash








5



happen…. ?

Likely

19%25%25%26%26%26%27%28%

29%29%

31%31%32%32%33%34%34%35%36%37%37%37%37%38%39%

40%40%

42%43%

46%48%

53%54%

35%

48%53%

50%55%

46%57%

47%56%

53%47%

43%47%

39%43%

51%43%43%

48%42%41%

35%42%

36%42%

40%40%

43%37%

43%37%37%

31%28%

44%

Hungary

Italy

Peru

Philippines

Romania

Turkey

Chile

South Korea

Belgium

Colombia

Brazil

Malaysia

Argentina

Spain

Netherlands

Australia

Mexico

Singapore

France

Germany

Japan

Russia

Saudi Arabia

China

Canada

Poland

South Africa

Great Britain

Sweden

United States

India

Israel

Hong Kong

All Markets

Unlikely

Donald Trump will be re-elected as President of the United States








6



happen…. ?

Likely

7%14%

16%16%17%

19%19%20%

23%25%25%26%27%28%

30%30%

36%37%

39%39%40%40%

40%41%41%

42%44%

45%46%

52%56%

32%

76%58%

60%58%

71%65%

60%51%

60%43%

56%51%

55%50%

44%54%

42%44%

35%30%

48%41%

40%32%

44%27%

40%33%

35%28%

20%47%

Hungary

Argentina

Brazil

Peru

South Korea

Poland

Romania

Mexico

Singapore

Italy

South Africa

Japan

Malaysia

Canada

Chile

Philippines

Australia

Belgium

Russia

Spain

Hong Kong

India

United State

Germany

Netherlands

Colombia

Sweden

Israel

Turkey

Great Britain

France

All Markets

Unlikely

A major terrorist attack will be carried out in [X]








7



happen…. ?

Likely

8%15%16%17%17%18%

20%22%22%22%23%23%23%

25%25%26%26%27%27%

29%32%33%34%

37%37%

44%45%45%

47%49%

52%52%

59%30%

71%72%

69%68%

73%68%

67%57%57%

52%52%52%

64%59%

50%45%

46%61%

54%41%41%

52%49%

51%31%

34%45%

34%27%

39%32%

27%27%

51%

Hungary

Netherlands

Poland

Great Britain

Sweden

Russia

Belgium

France

Germany

Spain

Brazil

Israel

Singapore

Canada

Romania

Argentina

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

United States

Italy

Mexico

South Africa

Australia

China

Colombia

Japan

Hong Kong

Peru

Chile

Philippines

India

Turkey

Malaysia

All Markets

Unlikely

There will be a major natural disaster that will have an impact on people in my town/city








8



happen…. ?

Likely

7%8%9%9%10%11%11%11%11%12%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%14%15%15%16%16%16%17%17%18%18%

20%21%

23%30%

37%15%

82%79%

76%72%

70%74%

72%80%

68%73%

65%78%78%

74%59%

69%65%

71%65%65%65%

61%57%

65%53%54%

61%67%

50%59%

55%43%

45%66%

Netherlands

Great Britain

Belgium

France

South Korea

South Africa

Canada

Poland

Spain

Israel

Japan

Russia

Sweden

Germany

Argentina

United States

Hungary

Australia

Philippines

Malaysia

Peru

Italy

Mexico

Singapore

Romania

Chile

Brazil

Turkey

Colombia

China

Hong Kong

Saudi Arabia

India

All Markets

Unlikely

Aliens will visit the Earth








9

Likely Unlikely

Society and culture

33%

43%

44%

56%

57%

33%

46%

33%

There will be large-scale public unrest (such as protests or riots) in [X] to protest against the way the country is being run

Women will be paid the same as men for the same work

[X] will win more medals in the 2020 Summer Olympics than four years ago

I will feel lonely most of the time








10



happen…. ?

Likely

20%

26%

42%

43%

44%

45%

45%

47%

48%

49%

49%

50%

53%

55%

57%

58%

58%

61%

61%

62%

62%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

77%

79%

82%

82%

56%

58%

66%

44%

51%

44%

47%

35%

40%

41%

35%

41%

41%

32%

37%

31%

30%

26%

23%

33%

27%

30%

24%

27%

23%

25%

25%

18%

12%

10%

12%

33%

Japan

Singapore

Canada

Philippines

Turkey

Sweden

Romania

Australia

Hungary

Germany

South Korea

Russia

Italy

India

Malaysia

United States

Brazil

Argentina

Peru

Belgium

Netherlands

Spain

Great Britain

Mexico

Poland

Israel

South Africa

France

Chile

Colombia

All Markets

Unlikely

There will be large-scale public unrest (such as protests or riots) in [X] to protest against the way the country is being run








11



happen…. ?

Likely

19%23%

27%28%29%30%31%

33%33%

36%37%38%38%39%39%39%

41%42%

44%45%

48%48%48%

51%53%

55%59%

61%61%62%

68%71%

75%44%

66%65%

62%65%

63%58%

60%55%

56%46%

54%53%

54%48%

51%50%49%48%

40%38%

41%43%

47%41%

38%38%

30%33%

23%30%

23%26%

20%46%

Hungary

Germany

France

Sweden

Belgium

Italy

Netherlands

Spain

Israel

Japan

Australia

Canada

Poland

Brazil

Great Britain

United States

Chile

South Korea

Argentina

Romania

Colombia

Russia

South Africa

Singapore

Mexico

Peru

Turkey

China

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Malaysia

India

Philippines

All Markets

Unlikely

Women will be paid the same as men for the same work








12



happen…. ?

Likely

19%21%

27%28%28%28%29%29%

31%32%

34%36%36%36%36%36%

42%43%43%

45%47%47%

48%51%52%

53%56%

61%67%68%

73%73%

75%43%

42%43%42%42%

36%36%

37%53%

47%33%

44%31%

32%31%

33%44%

35%38%

19%32%31%

34%27%

34%33%

34%25%24%

19%16%

17%21%

17%33%

Germany

Sweden

Belgium

Great Britain

Italy

Netherlands

France

South Korea

Romania

Spain

Hong Kong

Argentina

Australia

Canada

Hungary

Singapore

Chile

Mexico

United States

Brazil

Israel

Poland

Japan

Russia

South Africa

Malaysia

Saudi Arabia

Peru

Turkey

Colombia

China

Philippines

India

All Markets

Unlikely

[X] will win more medals in the 2020 Summer Olympics than four years ago








13



happen…. ?

Likely

18%22%22%

25%26%27%27%27%28%29%29%29%29%30%30%30%30%31%31%32%32%33%33%34%34%35%

37%41%42%

45%47%

50%57%

33%

72%64%

72%66%

58%60%60%

57%63%

65%62%62%

63%62%

58%52%

60%59%

55%52%

49%54%

58%55%

59%55%

44%51%

44%47%

49%45%

41%57%

Netherlands

Germany

Hungary

Israel

Romania

Mexico

Peru

Spain

United States

Philippines

Canada

Great Britain

South Africa

Australia

Italy

Colombia

Russia

Belgium

France

Argentina

Japan

Chile

South Korea

Poland

Singapore

Sweden

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Brazil

Malaysia

China

India

Turkey

All Markets

Unlikely

I will feel lonely most of the time








14

Likely Unlikely

Technology

27%

36%

37%

51%

58%

78%

57%

53%

43%

36%

32%

14%

People around the world will spend more time online than watching TV

Traffic in the area I live will get worse

I will watch more TV from streaming services than from over-the-air/cable/satellite TV channels

One of my online accounts (e.g. email, social media, banking) will be hacked into

Self-driving cars will become a usual sight on the streets of my town/city

I will use social media lessBase: 22,512 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium,







15



happen…. ?

Likely

66%69%69%69%70%

72%73%

73%75%75%

76%76%77%78%

78%78%78%78%79%80%80%80%81%81%81%82%83%83%83%84%84%84%

88%89%

78%

25%17%17%16%

20%14%

16%16%

14%15%15%

13%14%14%14%13%

14%11%

13%12%

15%12%

15%15%15%

16%10%

12%11%

9%13%

14%8%8%

14%

Belgium

France

Saudi Arabia

Germany

Romania

Hungary

Brazil

Sweden

Australia

Spain

Italy

Japan

United States

All Countries

Argentina

Great Britain

Mexico

Netherlands

Chile

Canada

China

Colombia

Hong Kong

Peru

South Korea

India

Poland

South Africa

Malaysia

Israel

Singapore

Philippines

Russia

Turkey

All Markets

Unlikely

People around the world will spend more time online than watching TV








16



happen…. ?

Likely

28%35%

41%42%

46%47%48%49%

51%52%53%53%54%55%

59%61%

61%61%61%62%63%64%65%

66%67%69%70%71%71%71%

73%75%

81%58%

50%45%

55%48%

46%36%

33%36%

40%39%

30%34%

42%31%

26%30%

28%27%

29%28%

26%26%

30%27%

23%26%25%

19%21%

22%24%

16%15%

32%

Japan

Germany

China

Sweden

Russia

France

Saudi Arabia

Spain

Belgium

Hong Kong

Argentina

Italy

Singapore

Hungary

Brazil

Canada

Chile

Colombia

United States

Mexico

Romania

Malaysia

South Korea

Peru

Australia

India

South Africa

Great Britain

Netherlands

Poland

Philippines

Turkey

Israel

All Markets

Unlikely

Traffic in the area I live will get worse








17



happen…. ?

Likely

22%32%

36%39%40%

41%42%

45%46%

46%47%47%48%48%49%

51%51%

52%52%53%54%54%54%

55%55%56%57%

59%64%65%66%

72%78%

51%

52%50%

52%42%42%

46%40%

36%31%

45%36%

37%37%

40%40%39%

37%36%

37%31%

32%31%

26%29%

33%34%

37%35%

32%25%

28%23%

19%36%

Hungary

Romania

Germany

Poland

France

Belgium

Russia

Spain

Argentina

Malaysia

Chile

Italy

Mexico

Netherlands

Sweden

Australia

South Korea

Canada

Peru

Saudi Arabia

Brazil

Israel

Japan

Colombia

Great Britain

United States

Hong Kong

Singapore

Philippines

Turkey

South Africa

India

China

All Markets

Unlikely

I will watch more TV from streaming services than from over-the-air/cable/satellite TV channels








18



happen…. ?

Likely

21%22%

24%24%

27%28%29%30%30%31%32%32%33%34%35%35%

37%37%38%

39%39%40%

41%41%41%

42%43%

46%50%

51%51%51%

59%37%

49%51%

46%55%

61%44%

49%44%

51%46%

43%39%

40%41%

48%53%

42%45%

47%38%

37%35%

44%32%

41%43%

38%38%

36%32%

36%36%

27%43%

Hungary

Argentina

Germany

Peru

Philippines

Italy

Romania

Brazil

Sweden

Poland

Mexico

Spain

Colombia

Chile

Netherlands

China

Australia

Belgium

Hong Kong

Great Britain

Saudi Arabia

Japan

Singapore

France

United States

India

Canada

Turkey

Israel

Malaysia

South Africa

South Korea

Russia

All Markets

Unlikely

One of my online accounts (e.g. email, social media, banking) will be hacked into








19



happen…. ?

Likely

14%22%23%24%24%25%26%26%27%27%27%27%28%29%

31%32%33%33%33%

36%40%

41%42%

43%45%46%46%47%47%

51%52%

61%65%

36%

73%62%

69%64%

72%65%

60%64%

62%64%

63%60%

61%55%

59%52%

54%61%

59%60%

45%42%43%

38%49%

43%38%

42%45%

42%30%

32%28%

53%

Hungary

France

Sweden

Poland

Russia

Great Britain

Germany

Netherlands

Australia

Belgium

Canada

Spain

Romania

Japan

Hong Kong

Argentina

Italy

South Africa

United States

Israel

Chile

Mexico

Brazil

Colombia

Philippines

Turkey

Peru

Malaysia

South Korea

Singapore

Saudi Arabia

India

China

All Markets

Unlikely

Self-driving cars will become a usual sight on the streets of my town/city








20



happen…. ?

Likely

15%16%

18%19%20%21%22%22%23%23%24%25%25%26%26%27%27%27%27%28%28%28%29%30%31%33%33%34%35%36%37%

39%46%

27%

59%72%

65%69%

65%60%

62%60%59%

66%65%

58%67%

56%60%

50%53%

62%57%

46%53%

62%53%

51%59%

54%49%

47%58%

42%52%

44%46%

57%

Japan

Peru

Chile

Mexico

Argentina

Romania

South Korea

Spain

Belgium

Singapore

Hong Kong

Brazil

China

Colombia

Hungary

Germany

Italy

Malaysia

Netherlands

France

Poland

South Africa

Canada

Australia

Russia

Israel

United States

Great Britain

Philippines

Sweden

Turkey

Saudi Arabia

India

All Markets

Unlikely

I will use social media less








21

% Agree

Outlook for 2019

50%

52%

65%

75%

76%

I will make some personal resolutions to do specific things for myself or other in 2020

I am optimistic that 2020 will be a better year for me than it was in 2019

2019 was a bad year for [X]

The global economy will be stronger in 2020 than it was in 2019

2019 was a bad year for me and my family








22

Please indicate if you agree very much,

agree somewhat, disagree somewhat or

disagree very much with the following

statements:

% Agree

27%44%

47%60%60%

62%63%

65%66%67%67%

72%77%77%

79%80%81%81%82%82%

84%86%86%87%88%

90%92%92%92%93%93%

96%97%

76%

Sweden

Netherlands

Japan

Hungary

Great Britain

Belgium

France

Australia

Canada

Germany

United States

Hong Kong

Poland

South Korea

Singapore

Spain

Italy

Russia

Brazil

Turkey

Malaysia

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Argentina

South Africa

India

Chile

Philippines

Colombia

Romania

Mexico

China

Peru

All Markets

I will make some personal resolutions to do some specific things for myself and others in 2020








23




statements:

% Agree

45%50%

54%58%59%

62%63%

65%68%68%69%

71%73%74%75%76%77%77%78%79%79%

81%81%82%

84%84%85%

87%91%91%92%92%

95%75%

Japan

France

Hong Kong

Belgium

Germany

South Korea

Italy

Great Britain

Sweden

Singapore

Spain

Turkey

Poland

Australia

Netherlands

Russia

Argentina

Canada

Malaysia

United States

Israel

Chile

Romania

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hungary

South Africa

Mexico

China

Colombia

India

Peru

Philippines

All Markets

I am optimistic that 2020 will be a better year for me than it was in 2019








24




statements:

% Agree

37%42%

45%46%46%

49%49%

52%54%

57%58%

60%61%61%61%62%

65%66%

68%71%71%

73%74%

79%80%81%81%82%

84%85%85%86%87%

65%

Netherlands

China

Philippines

Saudi Arabia

Germany

Singapore

United States

Japan

Canada

Malaysia

Poland

Israel

Australia

India

Russia

Sweden

Hungary

Belgium

Mexico

France

Peru

Turkey

Brazil

Spain

Great Britain

Italy

South Africa

Colombia

Romania

South Korea

Hong Kong

Argentina

Chile

All Markets

2019 was a bad year for [X]








25




statements:

% Agree

26%33%33%34%35%35%35%

37%38%39%

41%41%

44%46%

48%49%49%

52%52%52%

54%55%56%

58%58%

64%64%65%

72%79%

83%83%84%

52%

France

Belgium

Italy

Japan

Great Britain

Spain

Sweden

Germany

South Korea

Hong Kong

Canada

Netherlands

Poland

Australia

Hungary

Russia

Singapore

Argentina

Israel

Turkey

Mexico

Chile

South Africa

Colombia

United States

Brazil

Romania

Malaysia

Saudi Arabia

Peru

India

Philippines

China

All Markets

The global economy will be stronger in 2020 than it was in 2019








26




statements:

% Agree

31%36%

38%38%39%40%41%42%42%43%

45%46%46%46%47%47%48%49%50%51%

54%54%

56%57%58%59%

61%62%

64%64%65%

68%69%

50%

Israel

Poland

Japan

Netherlands

United States

Philippines

Germany

Canada

Great Britain

Sweden

China

Hungary

Australia

Singapore

Malaysia

Russia

France

Colombia

Spain

Italy

Mexico

Saudi Arabia

Belgium

Peru

India

Romania

Turkey

Brazil

Chile

Hong Kong

South Korea

South Africa

Argentina

All Markets

2019 was a bad year for me and my family






© Ipsos | Global Predictions 2020 | January 2020 | Public

Technical Note

27

• These are the findings of the Global Advisor Wave predictions survey for 2020. In total 22,512 interviews were conduct between 26th November – 6th December 2019

among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other markets.

• The survey was conducted in 33 markets around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France,

Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore,

South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

• For the results of the survey presented herein, an international sample of 21,011 adults aged 18-64 in the US, Israel and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other markets, were

interviewed. Approximately 1,000 individuals participated on a market by market basis via the Ipsos Online Panel, with the exception of Argentina, Belgium, Chile,

Colombia, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden

and Turkey, where each have a sample approximately 500.

• Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent

country Census data, and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100%

response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points for a sample of 1,000 and an estimated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points

19 times out of 20 per country of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in that country had been polled. All sample surveys and polls may

be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

• 17 of the 33 markets surveyed online generate nationally representative samples in their countries (Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain,

Hungary, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and United States).

• Brazil, Chile, China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa and Turkey produce a

national sample that is more urban & educated, and with higher incomes than their fellow citizens. We refer to these respondents as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”.

They are not nationally representative of their markets.

• Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or not stated responses.

• Data is weighted to match the profile of the population.

global advisor predictions · 2020-01-16 · © ipsos | global advisor predictions | january 2020©...

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