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Global 200mm Fab Outlook to 2018
Sample Content OnlyOctober 2015
Contents and specifications are subject to change without notice.
Copyright©2015. Semiconductor Equipment and Material (SEMI) All rights reserved.
Report Methodology
A bottom-up approach is conducted for Front End facilities tracking projects per cleanroom facility (fab) and company to forecast
fab related information such as capacities, equipment spending, construction spending, technology nodes, product types, and
wafer size transition.
SEMI tracks and maintains projects per fab and per company. These projects include new fabs or lines being constructed,
planned, or upgraded to a new technology node.
Information and updates are being obtained from various sources and are typically verified with the device manufacturer directly.
Sources include company announcements or press releases, financial reports, SEC filings, and news articles.
In addition, information is also obtained from visits to companies and meeting with key personnel. In-person interviews are
conducted with individuals holding titles such as: Vice President of Manufacturing, President, CFO, General Manager, Fab
Manager, Investor or Analyst Relations, or similar titles. SEMI also utilizes its regional offices to contact and interview companies
and works with third party research firms in some specific regions to update company and fab information.
After information has been verified, it is analyzed using modeling for each company and facility by region and product type.
Factors considered when modeling include market indicators, consumer indexes, economic climate, industry revenue
expectations, and historic market trends. Other factors considered are each company’s capital expenditure, revenues, ratio of
capital expenditure to revenues, market position/situation, historic trends, equipment cost per wafer, and selling prices for
devices.
Finally, information in the reports is assessed by SEMI senior analysts based on over 20 years of experience in the semiconductor
industry.
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US 2
Report Parameters● EPI, LED, CMP and R&D facilities are not included in this report in order to report comparable capacities.● Capacities reported are based on the installed capacity at the end of each calendar year in wafers starts per month.● Capacity for BEOL facilities is not counted in this report in order to prevent double counting of Front End facilities.● The word “Fabs” includes also “lines” within a facility.● Fab count is based on when a fab begins operation (1st silicon or risk production)● “New”: new fabs means fabs which began operation in 2010 or later. These fabs are relatively new considered to many
other fabs built in the era of 1990 to 2000. 2010 also signifies a year after the economic downturn were we see more new 200mm fabs beginning operation.
Display of data and data ComparisonAlthough 2007 was the peak year for installed capacity, we use 2006 to do landscape comparisons because by 2018, installed capacity is expected to reach levels similar to 2006. Then we use 6-year intervals which means 2006 to 2012 to 2018
Examining and forecasting trends, many tables and graphs are using as recent past data from 2012 on to 2018 which means usingdata from the years 2013 to 2018.
More recent data are displayed from this year, 2015, to 2017, as future data.
Over time some companies merged fabs which were built separately reporting only one facility. Because of that the fab count –for example – may vary but this does not mean that the fab closed. For example Intel Fab 22 (200mm) was converted into 300mm and merged with Fab 32 in 2007. In 2008 Tech Semiconductor (Micron) merged 200mm fab Fab 1 after upgrading to 300mm with 300mm Fab 2
3200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Limitations:
Prediction into the future for new fabs, fab closures, capacity and spending are made based on current known fab projects, but also based on modeling & analysis projecting spending and capacity. There is a good chance that some changes will occur affecting capacity and spending like some more 200mm fabs which may be closed or changes wafer size or its function (like support function). Any developments like this are unforeseeable at the time the report was published.
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4200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Overview: Past and Future
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
5
Worldwide Fab Count by Diameter
Example of key highlights• 200mm fab count increased from 60 fabs in 1995 to 200 2007 at its peak.• The life of 200mm fab manufacturing continue to expand from 2009 to today
and we expect the trend will continue into 2018
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US 6
Worldwide Fab Capacity Trend
Examples of key highlights• 200mm fab capacity surpassed 150mm capacity in 1998 and peaked in 2007.• 150mm fab capacity continue to decline as more fab is transitioning and
upgrading to 200mm for higher productivity
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US 7
8
Annual 200mm Silicon Wafer Shipment Trends
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
● 200mm silicon shipments peaked in 2006● Starting in 2013, 200mm shipments have been increasing● Data include polished and epi wafers but exclude reclaim, non-polished and SOI wafers.
9200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Change of Landscape: Capacity Trends
Examples of key highlights• 200mm equivalent wafer start per month• The economic downturn triggered a sudden shift:
• Memory capacity and Logic/MPU gave up most of their 200mm capacity
• Strong increased for Discrete/Power, MEMS, Analog but also 200mm Foundries
10200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
200mm Capacity Trends from 2016 to 2018
Examples of key highlights• Share of 200mm wafer capacity
• By region
• By node• Details of current fabs will be in excel file of the report
11
200mm Wafer Capacity Change Forecast 2015 to 2018
Examples of key highlights
• By region
• By product type– Analog– Discrete– Foundry– Logic and MPU– Memory– MEMS and Other
• Details of current fabs will be in excel file of the report
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
12200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
200mm Fab Trends from 2000 to 2018
Examples of key highlights• By wafer start per month capacity• By Fab count• Expect 9 more facilities to begin operation from 2015 to 2017 mainly for
Power, Analog and MEMS • Details of current fabs will be in excel file of the report
200 mm Capacity Addition:New and Existing Fabs
13
200mm Activity is Accelerating
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US 14
Examples of key highlights
• From 2013 to 2018…
• New 200mm Fabs/lines:
• Expansions of existing 200mm Fabs
• Who is adding new capacities
• Details of current fabs will be in excel file of the report
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List of New 200mm Fabs/lines from 2018
Examples of key highlights
• New facilities and the numbers of wafer capacity to 2018
• By region and by product types
• Details breakdown covered will be included in excel file of the report
– Company name
– Year of new fab
– Geographical location
– Product type
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
16200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Existing Fab Capacity Addition from 2013 to 2018
Examples of key highlights
• Details breakdown covered will be included in excel file of the report
• Company name
• Year of new fab
• Geographical location
• Product types
Fabs Migrating from Smaller diameter to 200mm Wafer Size
17200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• By wafer diameter change
• By region
• Americas
• Japan
• Europe & Middle East
• Korea
• China
• Taiwan
• Southeast Asia
200 mm Capacity Loss
18
Closed or 200mm Fabs or will be Closed
19200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
By Region
Americas
Japan
Europe & Middle East
Korea
China
Taiwan
Southeast Asia
By Product
Analog
Discrete
Foundry
Logic and MPU
Memory
MEMS and Other
• Fab details will be included in the excel file of the report
Fabs Migrates to 300mm
20200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• Detailed list
• By regions
• Americas
• Japan
• Europe & Middle East
• Korea
• China
• Taiwan
• Southeast Asia
21200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
List of Known 200 Fabs Shells
Capacity by Top Companies
22
23200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Top 20 Fab Expansion Companies 2015 to 2018
By Region
Americas
Japan
Europe & Middle East
Korea
China
Taiwan
Southeast Asia
By Product
Analog
Discrete
Foundry
Logic and MPU
Memory
MEMS and Other
• Notable projects
….
• Company and fab details will be included in the excel file of the report
24200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Top 10 Companies with 200mm Capacity in 2015
25200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Projected Top 10 Companies with 200mm Capacity in 2018
26200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Regional Capacity Changes from 2015 to 2018
Equipment Spending
27
28200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Top 20 Equipment Spenders on 200mm from 2015 to 2018
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200mm Capacity Additions by Product Type from 2015 to 2018
Device types covered• Analog• Discrete• Foundry• Logic and MPU• Memory• MEMS and Other
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
30200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Share of Equipment Spending Forecast
Change of landscape
Examples of key highlights
• Americas
• Japan
• Europe & Middle East
• Korea
• China
• Taiwan
• Southeast Asia
31200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Change of Fab Landscape 2006 to 2018
• Share of 200mm Fab Capacity Forecast
• Fab details will be included in the excel file of the report
By Region
Americas
Japan
Europe & Middle East
Korea
China
Taiwan
Southeast Asia
By Product
Analog
Discrete
Foundry
Logic and MPU
Memory
MEMS and Other
By Technology Node
700nm and up
400 – 699nm
200 – 399nm
120 – 199nm
80 – 119nm
50 – 79nm
38 – 49nm
25 – 37nm
:
:
Regional Trends and Outlook
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Americas 200mm Fab Capacity Forecastto 2018
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Examples of key highlights
• Overall year to year wafer capacity trend summary• Year to year trends by product type
–Analog–Discrete–Foundry–Logic and MPU–Memory–MEMS and other
• Capacity by companies• Summary
• Detailed company listing is included in the excel file of the report
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
China 200mm Fab Capacity Forecastto 2018
34200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• Overall year to year wafer capacity trend summary• Year to year trends by product type
–Analog–Discrete–Foundry–Logic and MPU–Memory–MEMS and other
• Capacity by companies• Summary
• Detailed company listing is included in the excel file of the report
Korea 200mm Fab Capacity Forecastto 2018
35200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• Overall year to year wafer capacity trend summary• Year to year trends by product type
–Analog–Discrete–Foundry–Logic and MPU–Memory–MEMS and other
• Capacity by companies• Summary
• Detailed company listing is included in the excel file of the report
Japan 200mm Fab Capacity Forecastto 2018
36200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• Overall year to year wafer capacity trend summary• Year to year trends by product type
–Analog–Discrete–Foundry–Logic and MPU–Memory–MEMS and other
• Capacity by companies• Summary
• Detailed company listing is included in the excel file of the report
Europe and Mideast 200mm Fab Capacity Forecast to 2018
37200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• Overall year to year wafer capacity trend summary• Year to year trends by product type
–Analog–Discrete–Foundry–Logic and MPU–Memory–MEMS and other
• Capacity by companies• Summary
• Detailed company listing is included in the excel file of the report
Taiwan 200mm Fab Capacity Forecast to 2018
38200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• Overall year to year wafer capacity trend summary• Year to year trends by product type
–Analog–Discrete–Foundry–Logic and MPU–Memory–MEMS and other
• Capacity by companies• Summary
• Detailed company listing is included in the excel file of the report
Southeast Asia 200mm Fab Capacity Forecast to 2018
39200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US
Examples of key highlights
• Overall year to year wafer capacity trend summary• Year to year trends by product type
–Analog–Discrete–Foundry–Logic and MPU–Memory–MEMS and other
• Capacity by companies• Summary
• Detailed company listing is included in the excel file of the report
Other Key Findings and Summary
Examples of key highlights
• List of Known Empty 200mm Fabs
• List of 200mm Fabs to be Added 2016 to 2018
• List of details of companies with capacity change by product types and by technology nodes
• USD 7.5 billion to be spent on equipment
• This report will contain more than 40 pages of graph, charts, and analysis
• An Excel file of listing 200 200mm fabs worldwide in production, planned, to be closed or closed) about location, product, capacity and spending out to 2018
200mm Fab Report October 2015. Copyright SEMI, San Jose, US 40