glasseffect - what mobile technology is becoming

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GLASSEFFECT 1 GLASSEFFECT may 2014 raimo van der klein what mobile technology is becoming

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Page 1: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 1

G L A S S E F F E C T

may 2014 raimo van der klein

what mobile technology is becoming

Page 2: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 2

NOSHEMA NOKIA KPN MOBILE MONDAY LAYAR

raimo van der klein

Page 3: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

this presentation represents my personal vision on mobile technology

3

Page 4: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 4

in this presentation I divided mobile technology in 4 fundamental layers

of technological innovation

Page 5: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 5

this presentation is also divided in 4 periods of eight years

Page 6: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 6

2000 2008 2016 20241992

START

this story start in 1992 when GSM networks rolled out. also the year that the first SMS was sent

Page 7: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 7

2000 2008 2016 20241992

START

in this same year Nokia decided to solely focus on telecommunications

Page 8: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 8

2000 2008 2016 20241992

START

in this same year Nokia introduced the slogan Connecting People in an advertisement.

The slogan was written by Ove Strandberg

Page 9: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 9

PEOPLE

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital

and that is what they did exactly..

PEOPLE

Page 10: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 10

PEOPLE

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital

Nokia had a phone for every „niche”

PEOPLE

Page 11: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 11

PEOPLE

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital

Nokia had the most sophisticated logistical infrastructure to deliver billions of phones all

over the world

PEOPLE

Page 12: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 12

PEOPLE

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital PEOPLE

in 2000 we connected the mobile phone to the internet.

Page 13: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 13

PEOPLE

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital PEOPLE

it is in 2000 that a vision was created of smartphones with broadband internet connections

Page 14: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 14

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital

these are the years that operators needed to convince us to go from voice to data

Page 15: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 15

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital

broadband networks were built with revenues from ringtones and sms traffic

Page 16: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 16

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 20241992

STARTAnalog to Digital

a phase with many exotic shaped phones and many experiments to innovate on the UI level

Page 17: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 17

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

as we approached 2008 our social behavior moved from synchronous to a-synchronous services

Page 18: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 18

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

social media destinations like twitter and Facebook became populair on mobile phones

SOCIAL

Page 19: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 19

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

pricepoints of data subscriptions reached acceptable levels

SOCIAL

Page 20: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 20

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

the iPhone becomes the mould for all others for the „smartphone”

SOCIAL

Page 21: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 21

PEOPLE

INTERNET

“Voice to Data”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

in 2008 Android was introduced and iPhone made their first phone with GPS

SOCIAL

Page 22: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 22

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

it is in 2008 that a vision was created of smartphones with sensors

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G L A S S E F F E C T 23

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

hardware gets more and more sensors

Page 24: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 24

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

hardware is generating huge amount of data which trigger smart contextual services

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

Page 25: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 25

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

this will be the era of the company that distributes the most sensors in a compelling piece of hardware

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

???

Page 26: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

the kings of hardware

26

Page 27: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 27

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

???

Page 28: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 28

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

AI

BIG DATA

“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE

From Services!to Agents

???

Page 29: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 29

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

AI

BIG DATA

“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE

From Services!to Agents

??????

Page 30: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 30

the kings of software

Page 31: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 31

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

???

Page 32: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 32

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

AI

BIG DATA

“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE

From Services!to Agents

AI????

Page 33: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

2016: king of wearables

33

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G L A S S E F F E C T 34

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

???

AI

BIG DATA

“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE

From Services!to Agents

AI?

Page 35: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

icons of mobile hardware

35

wave 1 1992-2000

“CONNECTING PEOPLE”

wave 2 2000-2008

“CONNECTING INTERNET”

wave 3 2008-2016

“CONNECTING SENSORS”

?Nokia 3210 (160 million sold)

iPhone (350+ million sold)

No icon device. yet

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G L A S S E F F E C T

and how we relate to the hardware

36

wave 1 1992-2000

wave 2 2000-2008

wave 3 2008-2016

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G L A S S E F F E C T 37

the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions.

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G L A S S E F F E C T 38

.. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a simple AI onboard

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G L A S S E F F E C T 39

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G L A S S E F F E C T 40

2016: king of context

Page 41: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 41

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

???

AI

BIG DATA

“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE

From Services!to Agents

AI?

Page 42: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 42

wave 1 1992-2000

wave 2 2000-2008

wave 3 2008-2016

system for digital voice

icons of mobile software

GSM voice distribution

App Store content distribution

no winner yet?

system for real-time contextsystem for internet data

Page 43: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 43

wave 1 1992-2000

wave 2 2000-2008

wave 3 2008-2016

system for digital voice

it will either be GLASS

GSM voice distribution

App Store content distribution

system for real-time contextsystem for internet data

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G L A S S E F F E C T 44

wave 1 1992-2000

wave 2 2000-2008

wave 3 2008-2016

system for digital voice system for internet data

or Google Now..

system for real-time context

GSM voice distribution

App Store content distribution

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G L A S S E F F E C T

2024: King of AI

45

Page 46: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 46

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

AI

BIG DATA

“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE

From Services!to Agents

??????

Page 47: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

1st wave. PEOPLE

2nd wave INTERNET

3rd wave CONTEXT

now we connect everything…

47

ME

Page 48: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 48

the phase between 2016 and 2024 will show us many exotic physical forms of AI and many experiments

trying to innovate on the UX level

Page 49: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

from an earpiece

49

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G L A S S E F F E C T 50

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G L A S S E F F E C T

to a robot

51

Page 52: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

Boston Dynamics

Page 53: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

or in your house?

Page 54: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

NEST

Page 55: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

in 2024 we know how to give AI a place in our lives

Page 56: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 56

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

SOCIAL

“Voice to Data”

“Content to Context”

PEOPLE

INTERNET

CONTEXT

2000 2008 2016 2024

From Synchronous!to A-synchronous

1992

STARTAnalog to Digital

CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data

AI

BIG DATA

“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE

From Services!to Agents

Page 57: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

as Nokia did not see Apple coming.. what is Google’s blindspot?

57

Page 58: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T

there is one weak spot

58

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G L A S S E F F E C T 59

Google does not like hardware.. trying to „capture” the market through the OS layer..

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G L A S S E F F E C T 60

but in 2016 it is not about the traditional OS on the hardware..

!

hardware by then has evolved beyond the OS level into smart agents

interacting with the cloud

Page 61: Glasseffect - What mobile technology is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 61

the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions.

.. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a simple AI onboard

+

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G L A S S E F F E C T 62

+ AI

.. if Samsung owns AI technology before 2016 they can break Google’s lucky streak

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G L A S S E F F E C T

moving the scale to Asia?

63

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G L A S S E F F E C T 64

G L A S S E F F E C T