give us this day our daily breadth greg j. duncan department of education university of california,...
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Give Us This Day Give Us This Day our Daily our Daily BreadthBreadth
Greg J. DuncanGreg J. Duncan
Department of EducationDepartment of Education
University of California, IrvineUniversity of California, Irvine
Learning from the Learning from the masters:masters:
Tom Juster
Jim Morgan
Jeanne Brooks-Gunn
““The economist The economist who is only an who is only an economist is likely economist is likely to become a to become a nuisance if not a nuisance if not a positive danger.”positive danger.”
-- Frederick von Frederick von Hayek Hayek
Kagel et al., 1975Kagel et al., 1975
Rat demand curve for root Rat demand curve for root beer beer
I say: “noncognitive I say: “noncognitive skill”skill”
You You feel:feel:
To create is to To create is to recombinerecombine
-- Francois Jacob Francois Jacob
Parallel playParallel play
Associative Associative playplay
CooperativeCooperativeplayplay
A Mediated Model of Family A Mediated Model of Family PovertyPoverty
Child Poverty
Purchased inputs
Cognitive stimulation in the home
Type and quality of child care
Quality of schools and neighborhood
Family processes
Maternal mental health
Parenting
Child/Adolescent outcomes
Attainment
Socioemotional behavior
Executive function
Inco
me
path
way
Maternal stress pathway
Increase in completed schooling associated Increase in completed schooling associated with a $3,000 annual increase in incomewith a $3,000 annual increase in income
Duncan, Brooks-Gunn, Yeung and Smith, 1998
Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated with a $3,000 annual increase in incomewith a $3,000 annual increase in income
Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010
Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated with a $3,000 annual increase in incomewith a $3,000 annual increase in income
Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010
Adult earnings (+) p<.05
Regression-adjusted associations Regression-adjusted associations with early family incomewith early family income
Adult obesity (-) p<.05
Adult hypertension (-)
p<.05
Adult arthritis (-) p<.05
Adult work hours (+)
p<.01
Arrests ns
Non-marital birth ns
Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010
A Mediated Model of Family A Mediated Model of Family PovertyPoverty
Childhood
Poverty
Purchased inputs
Parenting
Child/Adolescent outcomes
Attainment
Socioemotional behavior
Executive function
A Mediated Model of Family A Mediated Model of Family PovertyPoverty
Early poverty
Early brain development
Adult outcomes
Ability to sustain full time careers
Health
Stress and immune functionEarly
fetal/child stress
The Child
Microsystem
Mesosystem
Exosystem
Macrosystem
Bronfenbrenner, 1979
҉< Family
Peers <
҉< Community
Mass media <
Political system
<
҉< Culture
҉< Economy҉< Economy҉< Policy
҉< Policy
High and low family incomes, 1947-High and low family incomes, 1947-20082008
Achievement gaps by race and income, by birth Achievement gaps by race and income, by birth yearyear
Income gap based on various national surveys
EITC payments for family EITC payments for family with 2+ childrenwith 2+ children
Earned income
1993
1996
Effects of EITC expansion on children’s Effects of EITC expansion on children’s test scores and mothers’ healthtest scores and mothers’ health
Dahl and Lochner, 2009; Evans and Garthwaite, 2009
ChildrenMothers
CRP ≥ 0.3 mg/Dl
# bad mental health days
Unbiased
estimationUnbiased
causal
estimation
Measurement quality
Statistical
technique de
jour
The case for The case for breadthbreadth
Ideas having sex with Ideas having sex with other ideas…other ideas…
The history of the The history of the modern world is a modern world is a history of ideas history of ideas meeting, mixing, meeting, mixing, mating and mutatingmating and mutating
Matt Ridley, 2010 The Rational Optimist
2012 Theme meetings 2012 Theme meetings in Tampa Bayin Tampa Bay
February 9-11, 2012
•Developmental methodology
•Positive development
October 18-20, 2012
•Emerging adulthood
To create is to To create is to recombinerecombine
-- Francois Jacob Francois Jacob