giovanni botero on the forces governing population growth

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Giovanni Botero on the Forces Governing Population GrowthAuthor(s): Giovanni BoteroReviewed work(s):Source: Population and Development Review, Vol. 11, No. 2 (Jun., 1985), pp. 335-340Published by: Population CouncilStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1973491.

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Giovanni Botero on theForces GoverningPopulation GrowthGiovanni otero1544-1617) sa majorfiguren the arlyhis-tory fmodern olitical cience.Hisprincipalwork, ella ragion istato TheReasonofState,1589), is inmanyways fcomparablenterestoMachiavelli'smuchmorefamousThe Prince1513). It is a slightlyarlier ndshorter ork fBotero's,Dellecausedellagrandezza elle ittaTheCauseof heGreatnessfCities, 588),however,that hould arnhim ecognitions the riginatorfmodernopulationheory. heconcludingectionBook II) ofthat reatisentroduces scheme oranalyzing heforcesgoverningopulation rowthhat,more han wohundredears ater,becameknown nd enormouslynfluentials thecenterpiecefMalthus'sEssay. As Schum-peter ommentsnhisHistoryfEconomicAnalysis: Divested fnon-essentials,he

'Malthusian' rinciple fPopulationprang ully eveloped rom hebrain fBoteroin158[81:populationsend o ncrease, eyond ny ssignableimit,o the ullextentmadepossiblebyhumanecunditythevirtus enerativaftheLatin ranslation);hemeansofsubsistence, n thecontrary,nd thepossibilities f ncreasing hemthevirtus utritiva)re definitelyimited ndthereforempose limit nthat ncrease.Andfurther: [Botero's]path-breakingerformance-thenlyperformancen thewhole istoryf he heoryf opulation odeserveny redittall-came much eforethe ime nwhichtsmessage ouldhavespread; twaspracticallyost n the opula-tionistwaveoftheseventeenthentury. utabout twohundred earsafter otero,Malthus eally id no more hanrepeat t,except hatheadopted articularmathe-matical awsfortheoperation fthevirtus enerativand thevirtus utritiva pp.254-255). Despite hedistancen time nd insomerespectsnphilosophy,he imi-larity etweenhe hinkingf heEnglish lergyman althus ndhis talianpredeces-sor whowasa Catholic riest rained s a Jesuit) oesbeyond hebasic rameworkftheirnalytic pproach. orexample, otero'sviews n the ypesnd modus perandiofwhat ametobeknowns positivehecks nd 'preventivehecks opopulationgrowthre a remarkablenticipationfMalthus's reatment.ikeMalthuswhodidnotknow hework fhis talianpredecessor), otero oughtoground isreasoninginobservable emographicacts, ven houghhat ffortaslargely rustratedyhislackof ccess to reliable tatisticsndbyhismisconceptionsbout he emographyfboth he ncient nd the ontemporaryorld.Reproduced elow s the ulltext fBook II ofTheCauseoftheGreatnessfCities s translatedntoEnglish ySirT. Hawkins.Thetext fthis ranslationpub-lishednLondon n1635)wasobtainedrom heNew York ublicLibrary.t is ren-deredhere n modernpellingnd withmodernunctuation.POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 11, NO. 2 (JUNE 1985) 335


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336 Giovanni BoteroThe ancient oundersf cities, onsideringhatawsandcivildisciplineandifficultlye observedwhere here re nfiniteumbersfpeople,multitudereedingonfusion,imitedhenumberf citizens eyond

whichproportion,hey udged,order ndform ouldnotbe maintained,mattero muchdesired n their ity.Such wereLycurgus, olon,Aristotle.But the Romans, magininghatpower withoutwhich citycannot ongpersist)onsists, or hemostpart,nthemultitudefpeople, ssayedbyallmeans o increase ndpeopletheir ountry,s we havebefore emonstratedinthis reatisendwillexplicatemore ullyn our Bookson State-Affairs.Iftheworldwouldbe governedyreason, ndeverymanwillinglyestcontentwith hatwhichustlybelongsto him,thenwould,assuredly,hejudgmentf he ncientaw-makerseworthyo be embraced. ut xperience,which howsus that y thecorruptionf human ature orce revails bovereason,nd rmsnallpoints ield nto aws,teaches salso that heudgmentof theRomans eserves o bepreferredefore heopinion f theGrecians; omuch herather,orthatwe beholdtheAthenians nd Lacedemonianstospeakof no otherommonwealthsfGreece)fell nto uin ya little iscom-fiturendloss of a thousandnd sevenhundreditizens, rthereabout;ndontheother ide,theRomans onquered,houghheyost hegreatestart ftheirrmies nd enterprises.or t s a matter ost vident hatmoreRomansdied in thewars of Pyrrhus,heCarthaginians,heNumantines, iriatus,Spartacus,ndSertorius,nd notherervices,hanwere lain withoutom-parison) f theenemies.Yet, notwithstandingith ll this,they emainedvictors yreason f their nexhausted ultitudes,ithwhich, ddedto theirsurvivingoldiers, hey xcelledtheir dversaries,lthoughmostfiercendcourageous, o less in number hanvalor.Intheprecedingookswe havediscoveredhemeanswithwhich citymaybe raised o themost minenteightfgreatnesshatmaybedesired, othatnothingemainsmore o be said. Nevertheless,otfornecessityf theargument,utfor rnamentfthiswork,wewillconsider.

From whence it proceeds that citiesincrease not by proportionLet no manbelieve heforesaidmeans, ranyotherwhichmaybefound ut,can make cityncreasenfinitely.t sassuredlymatterorthyonsiderationfromwhence t comesthat ities rrivedoa certain eightf magnitudendpower an pass no further,uteither irmlybidetherein,relse fall backagain.Letus takeRomefor nexample.This, nthebeginning, as foundedbyRomulus; as DionysiusHalicarnassus rites)tcontainedhree housandthree undredmenfit obeararms.Romulus eignedeven ndthirty ears,in which pace thecitymultipliedntofortyeventhousand ighting en.Under erviusTullius,afterhedeath fRomulus bout omehundredndfifty ears,were reckoned p in Rome fourscorehousand itfor warlike


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Archives 337employment.inally henumber, y ittlend ittle,mountedo the umoffour undrednd fiftyhousandmen.Then do I demand,whence s it that he peopleofRome from hreethousandhree undred en f war rrived o four undredndfiftyhousand,andfrom ourhundred nd fiftyhousand assedno further?ikewise,forfour undred ears goMilan andVenice affordeds manymen s now theydo, wherebyppears he ncrease oesnofurther.Someanswer, heplague,war,dearth, ndother ikeoccasions re thecause. But that atisfies ot.Forplaguesand infections ave always been;warsweremuchmorefrequentnd bloody nformerges than nour days.For then hey ame in an instanto handy-strokesnd to givebattle,wherewere laina greatermultitudenthree r four ours hannow nmanyyears;the ervice eing educed romhefield o thewalls,wheremore hemattockthan he word s employed. esides,theworldhas never eenwithoutnter-changeablelterationfplentynddearth, ealthyonstitutionnd nfectiousplague.Neithers it pertinentomypurpose oproduce xamples hereof,orhistoriesre full f t.Now, ifwith ll these ccidents itiesbegunwith ewpeoplearrive oa vastmultitudefinhabitants,romwhence s it that hey roceednotbyaproportionablencrease?Someaffirmt s becauseGod,theModeratorfall things,o disposes.No man doubts hereof: et,becausethe nfinite isdom fGod, inthe ad-ministrationndgovernmentfnature, ses second auses, ask,withwhatmeans hat ternal rovidencemakesthe smallnumbermultiply,ndgiveslimits nd bounds o thegreater?For answer f whichquestionpropounded, may say that he samedemandmaybe made of all humankind,because tbeing three housandyears go)multipliedromneman ndwoman o much hat lltheprovincesofthefirmandand slands fthe ea werefilled.Howis itcome topassthatfrom hosethree housand earshitherwardhis ugmentationas takennofurtherrogression?But et us resolve hisdoubt ncities,for herebytwillbe resolvedntheworld.We say, then, hat he ncrease fcitiesproceeds, artly,romhevirtuegenerativeofmen,partly,romhenutritiveorce f those ities.Thegenerative,withoutoubt, lways s thesame,at least,fromhree housandyearshitherward,or s aptare men nthese aysfor enerations theywereinthe imes fDavid orMoses.Whereupon,f here erenoothermpediment,thepropagationndlessly ouldmultiply,ndthe ncrease fcities e withoutlimit.But f tproceednofurther,tbehooves s tosay, t s wrought ythedefect fnutrimentnd sustentation.Nowfood s importedither rom heterritoryfourcity r from thercountries,o thatf citywould ncrease,tbehooves, ictual e thitherroughtfrom ar.To cause that ictual e thitherroughtrom ar, t s necessaryhevirtuettractivee sogreathat t urmountndovercomeoughnessfplaces,heightfhills,depth fvalleys, wiftnessfrivers, erils fsea, treacheries


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338 Giovanni Boteroofpirates,nstabilityfwinds,greatness f expense,badnessofwaysandpassages, envyofneighbors, atred f enemies, mulation f competitors,lengthftimewhichsrequired or onduct, he earthnd cantinessnplacesfrom hencemerchandises tobeconveyed, aturalate fnations, ontrarietyof sectsandsuch ike, which ake ncrease ccording s thepeople and theaffairsf thecities multiply, ecomefinally uch,and so great, hat heyexceed all diligence ndhumanndustry.or howshall t everbe broughtopass formerchantso transportorn for xample)from ndiaor Cathay oRome,orfromheRomans hither?ndwhen he ne and he thermay ffectit, whowillassure hem heyearly oyages hall be alwayshappy, hat hepeopleshall still bide inpeace, that hepassagesshallbe perpetuallypenand thewayssecure?Or that nyform or ransportationfvictuals o Romecan be found utbysuchspaceand distance fland,so that heywhobringit mayendure hetoil andmaster heexpense hereof? ow,one ofthe aiddifficulties,fnotmany ogether,hichmaybeopposed, s sufficiento drivethepeoplefrom city,needful fassistance ndsubject o so many hancesandaccidents. dearth, famine, war, ninterruptionfaffairsndtraffic,a deceitofmerchantsndother uch ike,willenforce hemas the winterdoes swallows) oseek anotherountry.Thegreatnessfcities, rdinarily,s fixednthis,howtheymay om-modiouslyepreserved;utgreatness hich epends ncausesremote,r lldisposedmeans, ittleasts.Forevery neseeksfor onveniencendfacility.Theremaybe added lso to theformerhat reat ities re muchmore ubjectto dearth hanittle, ecause hey eed greateruantityfvictuals. hey realsosubject otheplague,for he nfection ore asilyfastenshere,nd withgreatermortality.inally, hey resubject o all thedifficultiesepeated yus becausethey tandnneedofmore.So, althoughmen were as aptforgenerationntheheight fRome'sgreatnesss inthebeginninghereof, et hemultitudesfpeople ugmentednotbyproportion.orthevirtuenutritivefthe ityhadno force opass anyfurther,ecausethe nhabitants,nprocess ftime,nothaving reaterom-modity fvictuals, ither evermarriedr, iftheymarried,heir hildren,throughmisery r necessity,ame to nothing; utforsakingheir ountry,endeavored o better heir ortuneytransmutationfplace.WhichmischieftheRomansdesirous opreventmade choiceofmany oorcitizens nd sentthemnto olonieswhere,ike rees ransplanted,heymightetterheirstates,live more ommodiously,nd so mightmultiply.Forthe ame reasonmankindeing ncreased o a certainmultitudeasnotproceedednyfurther. nd for hreehousand ears ince, ndmore, heworldwas as fully epletewithmenas now at thispresent,or hefruitsfthe arth ndabundancefvictualomportsotwith reaterumberfpeople.Menbegantobe propagatednMesopotamia,ndaugmentingylittle ndlittlehey xpatiatedere ndthere;ndhaving eplenishedhe ontinent,heypassedtothe slands fthe ea, and from urparts y ittle nd ittle rrived


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Archives 339at those ountries hichwe entitle heNew World.Besides,there s not nything orwhichmen fightmorefuriouslyhanfor erritory,ood, andcon-venience f habitation.The Swethians eputed t a greatgloryforthem o depopulate heirconfines ormanyhundredmiles. n theNew World, hepeopleof the slandof Dominico nd theborderingarts o to thehuntingnd chase of men, swe of harts,or hares, eeding hemselves ith heir lesh. he like domanypeopleofBrazil, specially heywho are calledAymurs; hey ismembernddevour hildrennd iving nfants,hey ipup thebellies fwomen reatwithchild,pulling hencehe ittle reatures,nd npresenceftheir arents our-mandize hem, oasted pongridirons,matterruly orribleo magine,muchmore obehold.ThepeopleofGhinea, nforcedy poverty,o at a base lowpricedaily ell their hildreno theMoors,whotransferhem ver o Barbaryand to thePortugalswho lead them nto their slandsor sell them o theCastilliansn theNew World.The likealso do thepeopleofPeru,whoforlittle r nothing ive their hildren o anywillhave them,which, ertainly,proceeds rom heirmiserynd nabilityo feed ndmaintainhem. heTartarsand theArabiansive by robbery;heNasamonians,ndCafres, mostbar-barous eopleofEthiopia,iveupon he poilsofshipwrecks,s thePortugalshave found y experience. esides, t s a thingwell known owmany imestheGauls, theGermans, heGoths, heHuns,theAvari,theTartars, nddiverse ther ations otbeing ble, throughhe nfinite ultitudefpeople,to live in their wncountry avegoneoutof their onfines ndpossessedothers'provinces,with heutterxtirpationf the nhabitants. herebyshappenedhatnfewages almost ll theterritoriesfEurope nd Asia havebeen possessedby strangendforeign ationsssuedfromheir abitations,eitheror he uperfluousndsuper-abundantultitudeftheir eople,or outof a desire o lead a lifemore ommodious ndplentiful.heinfiniteumberof hievesndrobbers,rom hence or hemost art rowstbut rom enury?Differencesnd suits,fromwhenceproceed hey fnotfrom hestrict ar-rowness fconfines?imits, itches, edges, nd other efences,made andusedaboutmen'spossessionsnd ivings;heguardingfvines ndripe ruits;gatestohouses,mastiffsnd bandogs iedthere;whatmayall this nfer utthat heworld s straitenedo our desires nd necessities?What hall we sayof arms fso many orts?What hallwe sayofwars,bothbysea and and?Offorts uilt nbridgesndpassages?What, f walls?Severus, heEmperor,with wall more than ightymileslong,in Britain eparatedhe Romanprovincerom heunconqueredeople.Thekings fChina,with wallabovesixhundred iles ong,freed heir ominionrom heTartars. heremay lsobe added to theformerausessterility,earth, nauspiciousnfluences,on-tagiousdiseases, pestilences, arthquakes,nundationsfthesea, ofrivers,andother uchaccidents,whichdepopulatingowa city,nowa kingdom,then nenation, traightnother,inder henumbersfmen mmoderatelyoincrease.


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340 Giovanni BoteroThe causes that preserve the greatnessof a cityItremainsnly, hat aving roughtur ity o he reatness hichhe onditionandotherircumstancesfsituation,ememberedeforenourdiscourse,anafford, iligencemay be used inthe conservationndmaintenancehereof.To which eace, ustice, ndplentyrehelpful; orustice ecures very neinhisown; bypeace,tillage, rade, nd arts lourish;yplentyfvictuals hesustentationflife s madeeasy;andnothingetains hepeople moremerryandcheerfulhan he heapness fbread.Finally, llthose hings hich ausegreatnessre likewise heaptestmeans opreservet. Forthecausesoftheproduction f things, nd conservation f them, re assuredly he same.

giovanni botero on the forces governing population growth

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