Gila BasinCollaborative Modeling Project

20 September 2005Kickoff Workshop

Agenda

• Introductions

• Project background

• Models and Collaboration

• Web-based communication tool

• Select model parameters

• Next Steps

Project Background

• Gila Settlement– Complicated – Arizona Water Settlements Act and

Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement (CUFA)

– 140,000 af/10 yrs– $66-128 million in federal funding– ISC has responsibility– ISC and Sandia agreed collaborative modeling a good

tool to address settlement

Project Background

• Collaborative modeling– NOT decision-maker – help understand complex systems– help ask better questions– help ensure diverse interests represented

Who is missing from our team?

Project Questions

• What questions will the model address?Examples:– Given various constraints, how much water is

available from where, when and to what purpose?– What are the tradeoffs among various approaches

to managing this water?

• Who should use the model?

• What role should the model play in making the final decision?

Models

Models and Collaboration

• Models– DO NOT provide THE answer– DO NOT replace human experience

– DO help clarify complexity– DO help identify tradeoffs among options– DO help users “see” differently

All models are wrong. Some models are useful.—G.E. Box, 1979

Models and Collaboration

• Models require data

• Understanding data– Importance of peer review– Importance of consensus– Anecdotal information

Models and Collaboration

• Team name?

• Preferred communication channels?

• Ground rules?

Ground Rules

1. Commitment is key. All team members will make every effort to attend all meetings. If someone misses a meeting, they need to review the notes and chat with Vince and/or Kristan about the meeting and decisions reached.

2. All team members agree to complete the “homework” between meetings.

3. All team members agree to participate and share their ideas and knowledge

4. All team members agree to ask for clarification when they do not understand something.

5. All team members agree to strive for the benefits of team synergy by listening openly to all perspectives and trying to see the issues from various perspectives.

Ground Rules

6. All team members understand that there will be difficult decisions to be made in this process and agree that decisions will be made by……(e.g. majority vote, consensus, unanimous, final arbiter)

7. This project must strike a balance between flexibility and stability. All team members agree that once a decision has been reached, using the agreed upon process, the topic is closed. However, the project will be flexible so that if the team agrees (by majority vote, consensus, unanimous) a topic can be revisited.

8. This project will include significant levels of uncertainty and all team members agree to work together to make progress despite the uncertainties. As an example, the team will address a lack of data in the following way……(educated estimates from team, deleting variable from model, multiple data estimates with toggle switches)

9. All team members agree to communicate with their constituencies about the project and obtain feedback to bring back to the team effort.

Web-based Communication Tool

Model Parameters

Next Steps

• Level of engagement– Develop or review causal loops?– Do data searches or review identified data?– Meeting schedule

• length?• frequency?

Homework

• Review Q and A from ISChttp://www.ose.state.nm.us/water-info/GilaSettlement/QnA-2005-01-17.pdf

• Think about project questions:– What should the model address?– Who should use the model?– What role should the model play in decision?

• Submit ideas to Kristan (kmcabh@earthlink.net) for how to use the Gila Settlement money/water– Be honest with ideas– Ignore constraints temporarily